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Around SBN: Dan Marino Starting College For Developmentally Disabled

Law Ranks Triunfel as No. 22 Prospect in Nation

From ESPN.com. (Matthew's Note: Please include links when you copy and paste from other sources)

Triunfel opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League as the circuit's youngest player, showing tremendous natural aptitude for hitting and more than adequate fielding at second base. Triunfel sets up with his hands high, and they're so quick that he closes to the ball in no time, hitting line drives to all fields but rarely trying to pull the ball out, even though he probably could at the cost of some contact. Triunfel's performance this year was more impressive than it looks at first glance. For one thing, he started the year 3-for-39, then hit .307/.355/.433 the rest of the way, a period that included a suspension for violating team rules and a 3-for-46 stretch in June. For another, he was 18 in high-A, a level generally populated by players in their early 20s, and not only did he perform well, but he rarely struck out, a good sign that he was rarely (if ever) overmatched. He's an above-average runner and a good base stealer. He's a natural shortstop but played second in the Fall League, showing good hands and a good transfer on the double play.

There are some concerns on Triunfel. The suspension is one, his age is another. His listed date of birth is Feb. 27, 1990, which would mean he'll play all of 2009 at age 19, but as a Dominican prospect who's already put together physically, some have questioned his age. If he's really about to turn 21, he's still a good prospect, but not a potential star. There's no firm evidence to back up the questions, though, so for now, we'll assume he's going to turn 19 and is still on track for stardom.

Star-divide

The age concern is interesting.... I hope he's still 18.

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This is the first I've heard about an age concern

up close though, he looks 18 though. I’d guess he’s like 6-2, 180 with lots of room to fill out. Great base stealer too.

I’ll try to upload the videos I took of him when I get home (I’ve only had them since August, I really should get around to it)

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 12:04 PM PST reply actions  

Man that's a sobering list.

I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.

by andrewgolfsalot on Jan 22, 2009 12:35 PM PST reply actions  

No...

That’s not entirely accurate. There have been several restructured bonuses because teams are finding out players are older than listed, and the whisperings from the D.R. about age changes remain as widespread as ever. Immigration pays a lot closer attention to age when they hand out the work visas, but that does not mean age inflation for international players isn’t still a possibility.

by slamcactus on Jan 22, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't see how if he was 2 years older he suddenly wouldn't still be "on the track to stardom."

Can someone help me with this? I mean I know his skills would be less impressive for his age group, but he’s still got the same skills.

by SethGrandpa on Jan 22, 2009 5:16 PM PST reply actions  

And those skills are still largely projections

An 18yo with Triu’s physical tools can be forgiven for applying them only sporadically. That’s less true for a 20 year old at his level. In both cases, there’s definite room for improvement, but an 18 yo who’s inconsistent is not worrying at all.

by marc w on Jan 22, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't necessarily say all of the skills are largely projections

It seems reasonable to say that he’s already a pretty good hitter for average, has some speed, and Law’s report makes him look pretty good defensively already. I think power is the main thing that is projected but he hasn’t really shown at all. Without the power, maybe he projects to be a taller David Eckstein (career .284/.351/.361) or something. With more power, you head towards the Jeter end of the spectrum (.316/.387/.458). And while Eckstein’s been a pretty decent major league regular, Jeter is a star, subpar defense and all.

by ubelmann on Jan 22, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

And that may not be enough

Scouts are nearly unanimous that he’ll be moved off of SS. Thus, an Eckstein level of production isn’t going to cut it.
I’m glad Law’s report mentions his defense, but there have been sooo many, er, contradictory reports (plus, he played a lot of 2b down in the AFL).

His bat is why he’s on this list, and a guy who might put up an iso between .080 and .150 isn’t exactly what most people are projecting for him.

by marc w on Jan 23, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Essentially he is more advanced than just about any other 18-year old in terms of skills

whereas if he’s 20, he’s merely above average in terms of skills because 18-20 is a huge development time for most players

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions  

The statement likely shouldn't have been "there's no chance he becomes a star"

it’s merely a matter of probability. If he’s 20, there’s a much smaller chance he reaches his potential than if he has these skills at age 18

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand.

I wish there was some way of calculating that. It’d be really interesting. Like if you’re at level X by age Y you have Z% chance of being a star as opposed to the % at a different age.

by SethGrandpa on Jan 22, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions  

This is one of those areas where scouting is probably more important than the numbers.

The failure rate in the minors is so high that I wouldn’t rely too much on statistics from an 18-year-old.

by Teej on Jan 22, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions  

This

at this point, it’s almost entirely a matter of whether or not he has the tools to be successful and where they are in relation to his age/experience peers, and Triunfel is ahead of pretty much every other 18 year old on the planet.

Of course there likely will be guys who catch him in the next couple years before he gets to Seattle, but being the best player in his age group at his age is a big, big plus

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, I guess Longoria was the only real callup.

I forget that B.J. Upton’s been around for a while. But still, they’re set up to be good for a long time.

by Teej on Jan 22, 2009 7:26 PM PST up reply actions  

The patience that team showed in developing their own talent was/is so amazing.

It’s something I don’t recall seeing anywhere in baseball, not at that level. Maybe the Twins. Scouting and acquisition is great, but oh man if Zduriencik and Co. have that patience, and if HowChuck allow them the time.

In the voice of Patton Oswalt

by Kermit. on Jan 22, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

The Rays got pretty lucky, in my opinion

that LaMar didn’t make any panic trades, and most of their top picks panned out. Credit to them of course, but it took a bunch of pretty lucky consecutive events to set them up with this good of a front office and this much young talent.

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 11:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Amusingly.

LaMar actually tried re-signing Upton to a “Longoria deal” while he was in Triple-A, but it fell apart.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 23, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Noted.

I swear it said number 23 at the time I posted this.

by r0ry on Jan 23, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I've got a buddy who he ranks 6th in the Orioles organization

I played with him back in high school and I knew then that he’d make more money playing ball than I ever would

by Fuzz on Jan 22, 2009 7:39 PM PST reply actions  

I've got a buddy

who put up this line at Low-A in the Nat’s organization. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that his late-season call-up was inflated by a ridiculously wonky BABIP/LD% combo.

by BrianL on Jan 22, 2009 8:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Is he really your buddy, though?

We all know what he did to you.

Jackass.

by Wilder. on Jan 22, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really, I think he's a little bitch.

I smiled when I saw his BABIP/LD%. Next year is going to be rather depressing for him.

by BrianL on Jan 22, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Hey Teej, speaking of prospects

would you be up for doing LL gatherings at a few Lake Elsinore – High Desert games next season? I suspect that the big four arms (Aumont, Ramirez, Pineda and Adcock) will all be there, might be a good chance to catch those guys and maybe Raben and/or DeJesus before they hit the bigs

by seattlebruin on Jan 22, 2009 11:25 PM PST reply actions  

I always say I'm going to go, but I never do.

But that was back when I worked some weekend days, so it was tough to get up there. Now that I don’t, I think I’ll be able to make it to a game. I’d really like to see Aumont. Is Triunfel going to be there?

by Teej on Jan 23, 2009 10:08 AM PST up reply actions  

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