Fun With Numbers - What's Your WAR?

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 6:06 PM PST Comment 89 comments

Imagine if you (i.e. the average reader) were suddenly dropped onto a major league baseball team. You'd be virtually useless in the batter's box - striking out each time (if you're lucky), and you'd be a defensive liability, forcing you into the DH position.

Assuming that you strike out on three pitches in every at-bat (which is probably being overly conservative but whatever let's roll with it), your wOBA would be .000. That's not a good number. Over 600 plate appearances that translates to something like 180 runs below average.

The DH positional adjustment is -17.5, and the replacement bonus we'll take as 20 runs. Your WAR would therefore be approximately -18 (meaning that you should be paying whichever team you were on almost $100M a year to make up for the fact that you're playing).

While this is an amusing little exercise, consider this: Jose Vidro, over 600 PA last season, would have been worth about -3 wins. That's 15 wins over someone who can't play baseball.

The best player in the game, Albert Pujols, posted a WAR of about 9 in 2008. The difference between him and Vidro? 12 wins, only a little bit less than the difference between ol' Turbo and someone who can't play baseball at all.

Let's present this in another way.

We paid him $6,000,000 to be our starting DH last year. What the hell.

Not a serious piece of analysis, just an amusing train of thought.

4 recs | Comment 89 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Eventually a pitcher would bean one of us

by Jeff on Jan 2, 2009 6:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to think I could lean into one.

Also, what is the chance a pitcher misses the strike zone enough to walk us without me taking the bat off my shoulder?

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 2, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I thought about this

I assume that they’d walk us sometimes but not very often, because they could get away with grooving fastballs

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, our outs wouldn't be as costly

because we’d strike out every time so we could never hit into double plays.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 2, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Although our outs would never advance a runner so that makes our outs less valuable

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 2, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just lay down the bunt.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jan 2, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that would be more terrifying than trying to take a hack.

by JonBBT on Jan 4, 2009 1:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I don’t think I would lean into a major league fastball.

by brayden04 on Jan 2, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What if I paid you $400k?

I’d lean into as many as you wanted.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 2, 2009 7:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I would lean into about three and then suffer an injury and take the rest of the season off

like Carl Pavano

by seattlebruin on Jan 2, 2009 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno....

it’s easy to say you’d lean into pitches…

I don’t know if I would. I guess if I was getting hit on the leg or arm. But getting hit in the body would suck. Head of course would suck too. Maybe…Who knows.

by brayden04 on Jan 2, 2009 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh, I got hit at 85 in HS

it hurts like hell, but I’d do it three times for $400k

by seattlebruin on Jan 2, 2009 9:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I got hit by 87

although I got hit right in the meat of the thigh… that wasn’t too terrible

I was also extremely proud of myself for getting a bat on it the next time up.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by jhmoore on Jan 2, 2009 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I got hit by a guy throwing somewhere between 80 and 90

I know he clocked over 90 and ended up pitching in the low minors.

However if you played high school ball or higher (like me) I think you’d eventually get lucky and get a hit or two in the season. If they just piped fastballs you’d catch up to one or two eventually, then they’d just start throwing junk or something, and it’d be more than 3 pitches an at bat.

However, if you’ve never picked up a bat, you’d be bailing out of the box so far you’d never even see the pitches.

by Smegmalicious on Jan 2, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yep, same thing for me

I got hit by 85-90 right in the shoulderblade, two at bats in a row

Not my day

Nowadays though, I’m the one dishing out the pain, as a college pitcher I hit anyone I want and never touch a bat :)

by mariners124m on Jan 4, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If you get 650 PA per season

400k works out to be about $600/HBP. Thats pretty good money. Get one of those fat elbow pads and it wouldn’t be too bad.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 3, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, you wouldn't be -18 WAR if you got hit by 650 pitches in a season, your OBP would be 1.000

and your OPS 1.000 as well

by seattlebruin on Jan 3, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I'd imagine you'd be more valuable than Albert Pujols if this were to happen

by seattlebruin on Jan 3, 2009 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

According to AC's WAR spreadsheet, a player who gets hit by 650 pitches would be worth

roughly 22 WAR or $100M per season

by seattlebruin on Jan 3, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I now know what I need to do with my life.

by acblue on Jan 3, 2009 9:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's when the catcher starts setting up on the outside corner every time

and the umpires start enforcing the “you have to at least try to get out of the way” rule. If you could get The Blob on your team (and somehow keep his feet inside the batters box) he could probably take up most of the strike zone with his elbows, and then this might work. He would have another advantage too, because if he took one in the gut it would be liable to bounce back at the pitcher at hundreds of miles per hour! Mutants will be the new roiders.

by chaney on Jan 4, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why don't you get a walk and then "sprain" an ankle running to first.

BOOYA! You got Slurved!

by Slurvey on Jan 2, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on how high it was.

by acblue on Jan 3, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to take this literally and picture me sitting on Stephen Hawking sitting on a chair.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 2, 2009 6:16 PM PST reply actions 4 recs

We'd at least take pitches.

In each plate appearance, the pitcher would have to throw at least 3 ptiches. And there’s a small chance we could foul something off, or luck out and get a hit.

by Sklyansky on Jan 2, 2009 6:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think some of us that played high school ball(anybody here play college ball?) could probably manage a few hits off of a replacement level pitcher,

after we’d seen enough pitches. A few of us(not I) might even be able to get an XBH or two.

by Goose on Jan 3, 2009 4:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the baseline should be

Player A’s 2005 campaign.

When you space it out over 650 PA, -100 hitting (+ 20 replacement -17.5 defense) gives around -10 WAR if he was a DH.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 3, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a better baseball player then Steven Hawking

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 2, 2009 6:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

No you're not.

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Hawking is great for chemistry, too.

I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.

by andrewgolfsalot on Jan 2, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

It's at least theoretically possible that I'll make contact

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 2, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

although Hawking in wheelchair has a greater surface area and a smaller batters box

so he’s more likely to get HBP or walked

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 2, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

so yeah I'd take Hawking over me

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 2, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Offset by the fact that he would get hit by more pitches

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

late

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 2, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

stupider

by acblue on Jan 3, 2009 12:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Where does Hawkings' chair fall on the chart?

That thing is pretty hi-tech. I bet it could out-hit Rich Harden.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 2, 2009 7:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I know how to lay down a bunt

by JLC on Jan 2, 2009 7:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Duh.

by JI on Jan 2, 2009 7:46 PM PST reply actions 2 recs

Someone here has to be able to play a better left field than Carlos Lee.

by JI on Jan 2, 2009 7:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I would not be a defensive liability at 1b

You may gain some yards on the ground, but eventually Lofa will end up biting you in the ass.

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 2, 2009 9:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd actually be a reasonable catcher

I was just trying to be as conservative as possible.

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How well do handle popups?

by JI on Jan 2, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Better than Jeffie

by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

WTF

by acblue on Jan 3, 2009 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There goes all chances you had with him.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jan 3, 2009 3:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He compliments his weaknesses

by JI on Jan 3, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd fucking own the league

if I had this bad boy

by Fogel on Jan 2, 2009 9:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Kind of reminds me

how as a kid we used to take the big-fat red “wiffle ball bats” (not the cool little yellow ones) and fill them half full of sand and then put a nut in them to hold the sand. Every blue moon the sand would end up coming out, but until then we could send tennis balls to the moon.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 2, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Mark McQwire?

by JI on Jan 2, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"Pros: hit a homerun every time."

Fuckin’ technology.

by Teej on Jan 2, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What if I took a lot of roids in the next month or so?

I could be ready by spring training.

by JLC on Jan 2, 2009 9:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

According to Bonds

You also need something called skill to be able to play the game.

by Fin on Jan 2, 2009 10:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How much would Michael Jordan needed to have paid the White Sox to crack the starting lineup?

I mean, I don’t have $100M lying around to buy myself onto a team, but MJ has a bunch of money. Back when he was on his little hiatus from basketball, he hit .202/.285/.266 in AA. Actually, that’s a really good walk rate. Roughly .104 BB/PA against a league walk rate of about .085 BB/PA.

Nevertheless, Michael Jordan was a poor hitter in AA. I would maybe guess that he would project to hit about like Al Leiter in the majors? Leiter has a career wOBA of .121. Over 600 PA, that works out to about 110 runs below average.

MJ made a lot of errors for an outfielder (11 in 119 games), but he’s a good athlete so figure that he could maybe be a -10-run corner outfielder.

Overall, that’s -110 for hitting, +20 for replacement level, -5 for position, -10 for fielding, so 105 runs below average. So about -10.5 WAR, or 7-8 wins better than someone who can’t play baseball at all.

Back then salaries were lower, so I’m not really sure how much teams paid for marginal wins. Maddux and Clemens were a couple of the best pitchers around back then and they made ~$5M/year. Figuring that ’94 Maddux would have been making at least around $20M today, say that a marginal win in ’94 only cost about $1.25M.

Given all of those assumptions, Jordan would only have needed to pay the White Sox about $13M to play in ‘94. If he was still as good today, he’d need to pay them about $58M to play. (So maybe Kobe or LeBron would need to pony up that much money to play for some MLB team if David Stern ever gives them a vacation for gambling.)

Fun fact! Michael Jordan’s ISO in AA beats Willie Bloomquist’s ISO in AA .064 to .055. And Jordan played in a tougher environment for hitters.

Other notables in the 1994 Southern League: Jason Giambi hit .223/.318/.363 in 56 games, which was enough to get him promoted to Tacoma. He also spent most of his time at third base. Also, Brooks Kieschnick, Chris Weinke, Pokey Reese, Doug Glanville, Shane Halter, some fellow named Alex Rodriguez, Chris Widger, Desi Relaford, Derek Lowe, Armando Benitez, Brad Radke, Esteban Loaiza, Ron Villone, Tanyan Sturtze, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Sullivan, Jason Schmidt.

by ubelmann on Jan 2, 2009 11:11 PM PST reply actions 3 recs

Another way of looking at this would be to say that Al Leiter would be about -11 WAR as a DH

So Vidro was only about 8 wins better than a pitcher who is bad at hitting would have been as a DH. Carlos Zambrano has a career .270 wOBA, which is just slightly better than Jose Vidro’s .268 wOBA from last year.

by ubelmann on Jan 2, 2009 11:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This reads like a rough draft of an interesting article you'd see at HBT or Fangraphs

by JI on Jan 3, 2009 12:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm way too drunk to read it but the subject kine makes me sakivate

by acblue on Jan 3, 2009 12:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sakivate away, just dodge those pitches

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 3, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So you are saying that I am closer to the mountiantop than I once thought?

by Robert on Jan 3, 2009 9:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ah, BS!

Certainly I’d close my eyes and swing for the fences every time, a la Felix. Surely in ONE of those swings, I’d make enough contact to hit the ball into the OF. Of course I can’t run, so I’d somehow manage to turn a surefire double into an out…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jan 3, 2009 2:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you'd be better off just trying to foul off pitches

There must be some value in making the pitcher rack up a higher pitch count.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 3, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder how many pitches I could foul off before I struck out

if I was just trying to foul pitches off. Getting good contact would probably be next to impossible but i feel like maybe I could get the barrel of the bat in front of a pitch if i took a half assed swing.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 4, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's almost as though you realize that some of us are scared of maths and need funny examples to help.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jan 3, 2009 3:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

My WAR? You're one of them!

I wonder how much it cost the Oakland A’s to have Herb Washington on the roster for all of 1974.

by abelard on Jan 3, 2009 4:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

He did have a positive WPA, so his SB/CS added a whole 0.12 of a win above average. You could argue that he was slightly above replacement level, though it might be interesting to look in depth at the full opportunity cost of having a dedicated pinch runner. It’s probably not much worse than having a replacement-level 12th reliever who pitches in blowouts or a replacement-level PH.

by ubelmann on Jan 3, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs