Arbitration Guesses?
by mlbnotebook on Jan 15, 2009 7:06 PM PST
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PrintWith a few Mariners filing for arbitration, I was wondering what people think the players would get?
Here are the players, with some statistics. All data is from FanGraphs.
Felix Hernandez
IP: 200.2
FIP: 3.80
K/9: 7.85
BB/9: 3.59
2008 Salary: $500 k
2008 Value: $16.2 mil
Erik Bedard
IP: 81
FIP: 4.32
K/9: 8
BB/9: 4.11
2008 Salary: $7 mil
2008 Value: $4.3 mil
Aaron Heilman
IP: 76
FIP: 4.91
K/9: 9.47
BB/9: 5.45
2008 Salary: $1.2 mil
2008 Value: -$2.8 mil (yes, thats negative)
My guesses:
Felix: $10 mil
Bedard: $5 mil
Heilman: $1 mil
Not really based off anything specific, just my thoughts on how much the arb board will give them.
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Does Arbitration often give players pay cuts?
I feel like they wouldn’t.
There are no good individual basketball statistics.
54!
I've never heard of an arb pay cut
but I don’t pay very close attention to it.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 15, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions
It's technically possible, but very rare.
An offer from a team cannot be less than 80% of the player’s previous year’s salary or 70% of the player’s salary the year before that . But the arbitrators will almost never go for that. This came up when some people (at least some commenters at the Times and P-I blogs/boards) were outraged that Horacio Ramirez got a raise after his atrocious 2007. But that’s the way it works. No way he would have gotten a pay cut had he actually gone to arbitration.
I can’t find the link, but I think a Mariners player had his salary reduced in the early ’80s.
(Note: I don’t believe this applies to potential free agents who accept arbitration — only to players with between three and six years of service time.)
I've never heard of a pay cut either
Maybe it’s just wishful thinking with Bedard.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
Under, over, over
For a guy who’s been reading the blog for like two weeks you post a lot.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 15, 2009 7:19 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Trying to lure readers to his site, obviously.
I haven’t the inkling to go there after what he posts here.
by Wilder. on Jan 15, 2009 11:28 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Arbitration salaries are more based on playing time and service years than quality
My guesses:
Felix 3
Bedard 8
Heilman 2
That may be true
in most cases, but Ryan Howard got a huge raise based on performance.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
In 2007 Bedard was worth $25 million
He made $3.4. His amazing performance got him a raise to $7 million. Salary is only loosely based on performance. Bedard would have probably made $5 million if he would have just pitched average in 2007 but since he was fucking amazing they gave him $7 million. Performance doesn’t matter all that much.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 15, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
His amazing performance more than doubled his salary.
That’s a big change from one arb year to the next. I guess I’m just looking at it on a smaller scale than you are.
The system is obviously designed to create a small (and artificially low) range in which a player’s salary may fall, but where it ends up within that range is dependent on performance. It’s not like “fourth-year players make x amount.” If that were the case, Horacio Ramirez wouldn’t have gotten a bigger raise than $100,000.
*would have
in that last sentence.
And actually, Ramirez was in his final year of arb eligibility, and he still got virtually no raise — just like his raise was tiny the year before that. He’s bad. A good pitcher would have seen a considerable raise from his fifth to sixth year.
But I’m defining “considerable” in percentage terms, not in how the dollars look compared to salaries set in an open market.
He got a raise the year before even though he was fucking horrible
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 15, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
With almost no exception, every player in baseball gets a raise in arbitration.
Shitty players get small raises; good players get big raises.
In arbitration, Horacio Ramirez got a 20% raise after a mediocre year (2006), and a 4% raise after his bad year (2007).
In arbitration, Erik Bedard got a 142% raise after a good year (2006), and a 104% raise after another good year. (2007)*
*(I know Bedard was better in 2007 than he was in 2006, but he had fewer wins and fewer innings pitched, so I imagine that’s why he got a smaller — but still pretty big — raise.)
I think we’re also talking about different definitions of “performance.” Yes, Ramirez has always sucked, but the arb panel is probably looking at rudimentary numbers being argued by agents. Even in Ramirez’s “fucking horrible” year, his ERA was right at league average and he was 5-5.
Being awesome isn’t going to get an arb-eligible player a $20 million salary, but it will still decide what end of the limited pay spectrum he ends up on.
The 100%+ raises Bedard got
can be thought of as linked to his performance but the salary he makes is on the same scale as the salary Horacio was making (last year was a little more). But yeah, we are saying pretty much the same stuff. Arbitration is just like the Ellis system for FA comp where playing time is valued highly and performance is less than or equally as valuable.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 16, 2009 12:01 AM PST up reply actions
It's based on service time and what comparable players received at that point of their service clock.
Felix should get more than $3 million. I still don’t think he’ll make more than Bedard, though.
From Cot’s:
Criteria the panel may consider include the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership, the club’s record and attendance, "special accomplishments," the salaries of comparable players in his service-time class and, for players with less than 5 years of service, the class one year ahead of him. The parties may not refer to team finances, previous offers made during negotiations, comments from the press or salaries in other sports or occupations.
I was just wanting this precise information, thanks.
So basically any old thing they want to use is acceptable, that’s pretty nebulous. If there is ever a place statistical analysis needs to be accepted and included, it’s arbitration.
Formerly dpseadvr.
The "transactions glossary" at Cot's Contracts is fantastic.
It covers all of this stuff. Link. I read it top to bottom when I found it, forgot 80% of it, and now go back to it frequently to try to get a feel for what’s going on in baseball’s labor market.
The site is also a great resource for contract information, of course.
Yeah 3 might be a little more
I’d be surprised at anything over 5 though
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 15, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
Further backing up my point
Cole Hamels (WS MVP) just signed a 3 year deal with the Phillies. He was in the first year of arb and signed a 3yr/20.5 million deal that will pay him $4.35 million this year, $6.65 million in 2010 and $9.5 million in 2011. If he could have made significantly more in arbitration he would have.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 17, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
From what I understand,
Players tend to get about 40% of their fair-market value in their first year of arbitration eligibility. So I’d guess Felix gets something like $6.5 million. Bedard will probably get a small raise — call it $8 million.
It should be interesting to see Zduriencik’s philosophy on arbitration. I’m sure he’s like any other sane GM and wants to avoid it whenever possible.
Speaking of players making money
Andruw Jones was unconditionally released by the Dodgers today, officially ending his miserable tenure with the team.
Jones was granted his release in exchange for deferring most of the $22 million remaining on his contract over the next six years, a move that will result in the Dodgers saving $12 million this season. The Dodgers had until today to trade or release Jones.
Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti said that Jones requested a trade at the end of the season. "He let it be known that he could not come back and play," Colletti said.
Colletti said he never envisioned that the player he signed to a two-year, $36.2-million contract could falter the way that he did. Jones hit .158 with three home runs and 14 runs batted in last season for the Dodgers.
Those are pretty unrealistic guesses.
Players pretty much never take pay cuts in arbitration and the history of players granted $10 million in their first go at arbitration reads of a list of MVP award winners.
Just a guess
And a hope that the arb board has become smarter. That is somewhat unlikely to happen. but one can dream right?
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
My guesses
Felix—$6.5
Bedard—$8
Heilman—$2.5
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
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