Fun With Numbers
Calling back to a post from last March...
(minimum: 60 IP both seasons, pitchers switching between the rotation and bullpen excluded)
Biggest Fastball MPH Increase, %, 2007-2008:
1. Jeremy Sowers, +5.0%
2. Jon Lester, +2.4%
3. Ervin Santana, +2.4%
4. Jose Valverde, +2.2%
5. John Danks, +2.0%
6. Jesse Litsch, +1.8%
7. Roy Halladay, +1.8%
8. Cliff Lee, +1.7%
9. Randy Wolf, +1.6%
10. Jon Rauch, +1.5%
Biggest Fastball MPH Decrease, %, 2007-2008:
1. Scott Olsen, -2.6%
2. Dan Wheeler, -2.0%
3. Tom Glavine, -1.9%
4. Francisco Rodriguez, -1.8%
5. Daniel Cabrera, -1.8%
6. Tim Wakefield, -1.8%
7. Chris Young, -1.7%
8. Manny Corpas, -1.5%
9. Jason Grilli, -1.4%
10. Heath Bell, -1.4%
Nothing extraordinary, but there you go. Note that the top list includes six pitchers who saw their tRAs improve by at least 15%, whereas the bottom list includes seven pitchers who saw their tRAs get worse by at least 15%. Velocity isn't everything, but it's clearly important.
Most interesting, I think, is Jon Lester - this past season, he exceeded his previous career-high for innings by more than 50, but he nevertheless threw his best fastball and, instead of fatiguing towards the end, saw his velocity peak down the stretch:
Some credit has to go to John Farrell and the rest of the Boston coaching staff for showing Lester how to pace himself over a full season. Given his stamina and performance, everybody involved over there did one hell of a job.
Felix, by the way, lost about a tick. Morrow gained a tick despite throwing 45% of his pitches as a starter.
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47 comments
Comments
Too bad
“The radiation gave him superpowers” jokes have been played.
by JI on Jan 13, 2009 9:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff.
I’m surprised Daniel Cabrera was only fifth. He looked like he was throwing BP last season.
I also like how Litsch pumped his fastball all the way up to almost 90. Go Jesse! Gotta love a guy who gets ground balls and refuses to walk anyone.
by Teej on Jan 13, 2009 10:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera only dropped from 94.3 to 92.6
but back in 2005 he was all the way up at 96.2. His fastball is slower, his slider is slower, his curveball is slower, and his changeup is slower. He appears to be broken beyond repair.
by Jeff on Jan 13, 2009 10:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Breaks my heart.
He’s one of the guys I root for like crazy.
by Teej on Jan 13, 2009 10:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Can the bullpen save him and turn him into something effective (although not very valuable)?
Or is he just garbage at this point?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 13, 2009 11:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If
he can’t do well at home with the Nationals this year, he may be destined for a 6th inning role or to be the long man.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And mixes his pitches.
The way those Toronto starters throw everything is really interesting. Everyone on their staff aside from Halladay and Burnett threw 5 different pitches regularly (and now Burnett’s gone – I love how they’re coaching these kids).
It’s like that can take any competent minor-league pitcher and say "be unpredictable, and throw strikes) and suddenly they’re above average major league pitchers.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jan 14, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Ryan Franklin method?
It can’t just be pitch mix – I’d love to learn more about what they’re telling guys like Litsch.
by marc w on Jan 14, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
You've probably seen the articles, but Fangraphs has had some good stuff on him.
Golebiewski on his pitches.
Dave on his probably undeserved demotion in August.
Seidman on the whole rotation’s pitch-mixing.
Pretty fascinating stuff.
by Teej on Jan 14, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers are fucking awesome
Would be interesting to look at any changes in secondary stuff, movement with the fastball, changes in LD%, HR rates, BABIP, and all kinds of other shit.
by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 11:59 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Simply awesome
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 7:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Roids?
Sowers on roids? They should think about testing him.
Not surprised to see Glavine on the down list. Growing old is a bitch.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 7:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sowers was throwing 88.5 in 2006, 85.4 in 2007, and 89.7 in 2008
He basically just regained what he lost, plus a little extra.
by Jeff on Jan 14, 2009 8:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no reason to suddenly suspect him of using steroids
there are lots of reasons a guys’ velocity will fluctuate from year to year including, but not limited to stupidly trying to pitch hurt one year and then being healthy and pitching as normal the next
by seattlebruin on Jan 14, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
exactally
sensationalism at its finest
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So what does that make this comment?
by seattlebruin on Jan 14, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
could be
or maybe its a joke? Yeah, let’s go with that one.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Fascinating stuff, Jeff
Interesting to see K-Rod change his pitch mix so markedly as his FB declines. Likewise, Ervin Santana seemed to move more towards FB/Slider and away from the change and curve as his velocity increased. Both of those make perfect sense. The real head scratcher is, of course, Felix, who threw FBs much more often despite the slight drop in velo.
by marc w on Jan 14, 2009 9:11 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if the drop in velocity is -because- he used it so much.
Was there a decline in its speed as the year wore on? I can’t recall.
by Teej on Jan 14, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's also possible that he was throwing more two-seamers and fewer four-seamers
but that’s all but impossible to check out.
by Jeff on Jan 14, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The injury is also a possibility
if it was making it all difficult or uncomfortable to plant/land on (don’t remember which ankle it was), it might have caused him to back off just a bit to avoid re-spraining it the rest of the year.
by seattlebruin on Jan 14, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really wonder how much of Rodriguez's fastball decline is deliberate
He and his agent claim that it is, and while I’m more than a little skeptical, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I imagine we’ll have our answer by May or June.
by Jeff on Jan 14, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm excited for the LL's reaction the first time the Mets announce that JJ and K-Rod are switching roles
by seattlebruin on Jan 14, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be fine if Felix threw his 4 seam fastball 1 mph slower
if that meant he could stop throwing it down the middle of the plate.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 14, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Halladay throws harder now?
Is that even fair?
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jan 14, 2009 10:38 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nope
Not fair at all. He seems hell-bent on improving his K’s, and that is just sick to think about.
-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com
by mlbnotebook on Jan 14, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right, because a 3.7 tRA over 240 IP just isn't good enough for him.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jan 14, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How much of a change in speed is significant?
I’m guessing many sources of error dwarf the 1% change we see in a lot of these guys.
Does a 1% change in your fastball velocity change how effective of a pitcher you are? Is a 92 mph FB much harder to hit than a 91 mph FB?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 14, 2009 1:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My theory
I don’t think a pitcher who naturally throws 91 stands significantly more or less of a chance of succeeding than a pitcher who naturally throws 92, but I think it’s when a pitcher moves from 91 to 92 or from 92 to 91 that funny things start to happen. Pitchers seem to enjoy velocity gains and have difficulty adjusting to velocity drops.
by Jeff on Jan 14, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Could it be the causes that result in velocity changes are more important than the actual changes
A pitcher is fatigued (or injured) so he sees his velocity decrease. He also loses control, stamina, and movement.
A pitcher has adjusted his mechanics to be more efficient. He also has better control and stamina.
It would be interesting to do a correlation between FB speed %change and BB %change. I’m not totally sure what would happen. If the above hypothesis is correct then a pitcher who sees lower FB speed should lose control. On the other hand pitchers could take a little bit off in order to improve their control by not going max-effort on every pitch.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 14, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that's my thinking
Velocity changes are symptoms. Symptoms of good things if you velocity increases, and symptoms of bad things if it decreases. They’re just a useful, apparent indicator of something hidden.
by Jeff on Jan 14, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry to post here for this
But I can’t find any other place to answer the question (including FAQ).
If I wanted to cancel my SBNation account, how could I do that? I’m wanting to clean up the overwhelming numbers of internet communities of which I’m a part and would rather not have defunct memberships hanging in the wind. Any assistance would be appreciated; sorry to bother you with a non-baseball question.
by Azimeir on Jan 14, 2009 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
SBN 4 LIFE!
I’m not sure, honestly. Just delete any information from your account and change the password to something you’ll never remember, so you won’t be tempted to come crawling back.
by Teej on Jan 14, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, uh, thanks...
But I would like the option to return. : )
by Azimeir on Jan 15, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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