Abreu An Option?
by mlbnotebook on Jan 13, 2009 12:59 PM PST
Email
PrintThere has been some speculation about it from Tim Brown, and Tim Dierkes brought it up again in his chat today.
I really cannot see the M's looking at Abreu as an option. He is not a great defensive player (-25.9 UZR/150 last year), and is slipping at the plate. I really cannot see the M's go after a player that is asking as much as he is, especially after how they raved about Chavez and Gutierrez at the USSM/LL event.
On the flip side, Abreu could still be a good player. PICSER ranks Abreu as the ninth best outfielder in the league last season (hitting wise). This is mainly because of Abreu's 22.6% Line Drives, and good plate discipline. Abreu only swung at 16.6% of pitches outside the zone last year, compared to 52.8% inside the zone.
Abreu a Mariner? Nope.
80 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
heh
He is not a great defensive player (-25.9 UZR/150 last year),
Was that sarcasm or do you dislike making strong statements? Because for a corner fielder -25 has to be some kind of record.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:07 PM PST reply actions
And I laugh at Brad Hawpe
although while it’s obvious why I would laugh at Brad Hawpe I’m not so clear on why Brad Hawpe would laugh at me.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
it’s obvious why I would laugh at Brad Hawpe I’m not so clear on why Brad Hawpe would laugh at me.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
...
-25 has to be some kind of record.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I think that should make Brad Hawpe cry at me
but fair enough, I was too lazy to look up who was actually the worst fielder last year.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
For whatever it's worth
I imagine that -26 has to be an anomaly. More likely he’s around -15, like Raul.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 13, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
Y'know, as high (low?) as that number is
I recall watching Hawpe in the 2007 WS, and he was just unthinkably awful in right field. It was like watching Raul Ibanez if his shoelaces were tied together and he was blind in both eyes.
3-year averaged UZR/150 is -29
And he’s been declining by more than 10 runs each year since 2006.
I’m not sure if it’s possible he could be any worse than -47, but Hawpe has the best chance at it.
If it's a cheap, short-term contract I'd be okay with it.
by Aaron Campeau on Jan 13, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions
He's probably a two win player as a DH.
2/~$16mm would be fine by me. It’s not my first choice, but it’s hardly terrible.
by Aaron Campeau on Jan 13, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't give him a 2nd year.
But I’d talk to him about a 1 year deal.
I'd be even more okay with that, and he might be as well.
I’d go to $10mm on a one year deal.
by Aaron Campeau on Jan 13, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
Dunn might be a bit better, but...
do win values at Fangraphs take league and ballpark factors into account?
Their win values are but there's some question about whether they're being done properly
See: Pedroia, Dustin.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 13, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions
Doing a comparison at Fangraphs
with other DH numbers, and taking Abreu out of the field, he could be a 2.5-3 win player as a DH. That would make a $12 million per deal reasonable.
And if the market continues to go the way it does, I could see him taking a 2/$16 mm offer.
Or 1/$10 mm
He's projected for 13-18 wRAA
that’s a 2-3 win DH, given some amount of statistical variance and a lefty friendly environment.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions
No, no that's not. It's not even close.
Grant Abreu 15 wRAA. That’s his production above average with the bat only.
Move him to DH, knocking 22.5 runs off his value for position.
Add 20 runs for replacement level given a full season projection.
Total: 12.5 runs, or 1.25 wins.
In order to be a 2-3 win DH, your bat has to be worth 4-5 wins.
Why 22.5 for position?
Thome had 503 ABs and his position value was only -16.1.
And I kept his wRAA up around 20 (he was at 22 in 2008).
That's the dh penalty Matthew references below
Check the Book blog or Tango’s posts at fangraphs.
The positional adjustment is 22.5, and then you can add back 5 runs to account for the fact that DHing is more difficult for hitters (based on historical data). So yeah, it’s a HUGE adjustment. Still, that makes intuitive sense.
That's Tango's positional adjustment for DH
though it should be -17.5 since it’s harder to DH, and so that’s a +5 run adjustment to the -22.5.
Other positions are:
C:12.5
SS: +7.5
2B/3B/CF: +2.5
LF/RF: -7.5
1B: -12.5
DH: -22.5 (5 for difficulty = -17.5)
The +5 is given to players that already are DHs though,
players moving to DH get the full 22.5 penalty.
Huh?
“DH get a bonus of +5 runs because it’s harder to DH. So, it’s really -17.5, but I wanted to highlight it as two different steps.”
We’re projecting performance here – you’re saying that he won’t get the +5 bonus because he’s new to the position? That the difficulty in being a DH only kicks in after years of boredom?
Yes to the first.
It’s harder to DH. It will typically cost the hitter 5 runs off his bat when he moves to that position, which is what the proposal for Abreu would be.
In other words, to project Abreu at DH, you would knock 5 runs off his offensive projection as an OF, and then dock him 17.5 runs for being a DH. Or, you can just say that the penalty for moving to DH is 22.5 runs.
bench players' suck is contagious
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 5:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe that's why Vidro sucked so bad.
Being around Miguel Cairo and Willie Bloomquist too often. Willie alone was able to make him a position-less singles hitter. Cairo had to come in and complete the job.
Oh I forgot about the five extra runs for not playing the field
but why only 20 runs for replacement level and not the 25 that seems to be standard in the AL? If you give him a 25 replacement level adjustment and project 15 RAA there’s your 4 wins with the bat.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
The AL-NL gap is shrinking, it's better to use 20 for each.
And you’re still ignoring the DH penalty.
Hüsker Dü
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jan 13, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
