Abreu An Option?

by mlbnotebook on Jan 13, 2009 12:59 PM PST Comment 80 comments

There has been some speculation about it from Tim Brown, and Tim Dierkes brought it up again in his chat today.

I really cannot see the M's looking at Abreu as an option. He is not a great defensive player (-25.9 UZR/150 last year), and is slipping at the plate. I really cannot see the M's go after a player that is asking as much as he is, especially after how they raved about Chavez and Gutierrez at the USSM/LL event.

On the flip side, Abreu could still be a good player. PICSER ranks Abreu as the ninth best outfielder in the league last season (hitting wise). This is mainly because of Abreu's 22.6% Line Drives, and good plate discipline. Abreu only swung at 16.6% of pitches outside the zone last year, compared to 52.8% inside the zone.

Abreu a Mariner? Nope.

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heh

He is not a great defensive player (-25.9 UZR/150 last year),

Was that sarcasm or do you dislike making strong statements? Because for a corner fielder -25 has to be some kind of record.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Brad Hawpe laughs at you.

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And I laugh at Brad Hawpe

although while it’s obvious why I would laugh at Brad Hawpe I’m not so clear on why Brad Hawpe would laugh at me.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

-47.7 UZR

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

it’s obvious why I would laugh at Brad Hawpe I’m not so clear on why Brad Hawpe would laugh at me.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

...

-25 has to be some kind of record.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jan 13, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that should make Brad Hawpe cry at me

but fair enough, I was too lazy to look up who was actually the worst fielder last year.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dear Jesus almighty.

Big Z is the MAN.

by Taylor H on Jan 13, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For whatever it's worth

I imagine that -26 has to be an anomaly. More likely he’s around -15, like Raul.

by Jeff on Jan 13, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So what does that make -47?

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A black hole of suck.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 13, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Y'know, as high (low?) as that number is

I recall watching Hawpe in the 2007 WS, and he was just unthinkably awful in right field. It was like watching Raul Ibanez if his shoelaces were tied together and he was blind in both eyes.

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure a hobbled and blind Raul Ibanez would be a worse defensive outfielder than Brad Hawpe

by Jeff on Jan 13, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

3-year averaged UZR/150 is -29

And he’s been declining by more than 10 runs each year since 2006.

I’m not sure if it’s possible he could be any worse than -47, but Hawpe has the best chance at it.

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

-20 or -30 seems plausible somehow

by Jeff on Jan 13, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sarcasm

-Zach Sanders
http://www.mlbnotebook.com

by mlbnotebook on Jan 13, 2009 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

1.1 Value Wins as a lefty at Yankee Stadium? No thanks...

by Fett42 on Jan 13, 2009 1:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

If it's a cheap, short-term contract I'd be okay with it.

by acblue on Jan 13, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I wouldn’t.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's probably a two win player as a DH.

2/~$16mm would be fine by me. It’s not my first choice, but it’s hardly terrible.

by acblue on Jan 13, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't give him a 2nd year.

But I’d talk to him about a 1 year deal.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be even more okay with that, and he might be as well.

I’d go to $10mm on a one year deal.

by acblue on Jan 13, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd still rather talk to Dunn

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn might be a bit better, but...

do win values at Fangraphs take league and ballpark factors into account?

by tait644 on Jan 13, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think their wOBA is adjusted for either

SC has park-adjusted wOBA, though.

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Their win values are but there's some question about whether they're being done properly

See: Pedroia, Dustin.

by Graham on Jan 13, 2009 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm, I see

Are they just using park factors for a single year or something?

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess (but don't know) that they're using blanket factors rather than component ones

by Graham on Jan 13, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

by Jeff on Jan 13, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Doing a comparison at Fangraphs

with other DH numbers, and taking Abreu out of the field, he could be a 2.5-3 win player as a DH. That would make a $12 million per deal reasonable.

And if the market continues to go the way it does, I could see him taking a 2/$16 mm offer.

Or 1/$10 mm

by tait644 on Jan 13, 2009 1:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Bobby Abreu isn't a 5-win bat.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I said 2.5 to 3 wins.

by tait644 on Jan 13, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And then did you do the positional adjustment (-17.5r)?

by marc w on Jan 13, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And consider that he's in decline?

by acblue on Jan 13, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those are included in the projections

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's projected for 13-18 wRAA

that’s a 2-3 win DH, given some amount of statistical variance and a lefty friendly environment.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 13, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, no that's not. It's not even close.

Grant Abreu 15 wRAA. That’s his production above average with the bat only.

Move him to DH, knocking 22.5 runs off his value for position.

Add 20 runs for replacement level given a full season projection.

Total: 12.5 runs, or 1.25 wins.

In order to be a 2-3 win DH, your bat has to be worth 4-5 wins.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 3:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, bat has to be worth 3-4 wins.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why 22.5 for position?

Thome had 503 ABs and his position value was only -16.1.

And I kept his wRAA up around 20 (he was at 22 in 2008).

by tait644 on Jan 13, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's the dh penalty Matthew references below

Check the Book blog or Tango’s posts at fangraphs.
The positional adjustment is 22.5, and then you can add back 5 runs to account for the fact that DHing is more difficult for hitters (based on historical data). So yeah, it’s a HUGE adjustment. Still, that makes intuitive sense.

by marc w on Jan 13, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's Tango's positional adjustment for DH

though it should be -17.5 since it’s harder to DH, and so that’s a +5 run adjustment to the -22.5.

Other positions are:

C:12.5
SS: +7.5
2B/3B/CF: +2.5
LF/RF: -7.5
1B: -12.5
DH: -22.5 (5 for difficulty = -17.5)

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Late, and C should be +12.5

by JLC on Jan 13, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The +5 is given to players that already are DHs though,

players moving to DH get the full 22.5 penalty.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

“DH get a bonus of +5 runs because it’s harder to DH. So, it’s really -17.5, but I wanted to highlight it as two different steps.”

We’re projecting performance here – you’re saying that he won’t get the +5 bonus because he’s new to the position? That the difficulty in being a DH only kicks in after years of boredom?

by marc w on Jan 13, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes to the first.

It’s harder to DH. It will typically cost the hitter 5 runs off his bat when he moves to that position, which is what the proposal for Abreu would be.

In other words, to project Abreu at DH, you would knock 5 runs off his offensive projection as an OF, and then dock him 17.5 runs for being a DH. Or, you can just say that the penalty for moving to DH is 22.5 runs.

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs