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THIS JUST IN: BBWAA HOF voters are stupid

Circuit_images_tiny by esoteric on

The final tallies - Rickey and Rice are in

Player/Total Votes/Percentage

Rickey 511 94.8%
Jim Rice 412 76.4%
Andre Dawson 361 67.0%
Bert Blyleven 338 62.7%
Lee Smith 240 44.5%
Jack Morris 237 44.0%
Tommy John 171 31.7%
Tim Raines 122 22.6%
Mark McGwire 118 21.9%
Alan Trammell 94 17.4%
Dave Parker 81 15.0%
Don Mattingly 64 11.9%
Dale Murphy 62 11.5%
Harold Baines 32 5.9%
Mark Grace 22 4.1%
David Cone 21 3.9%
Matt Williams 7 1.3%
Mo Vaughn 6 1.1%
Jay Bell 2 0.4%
Jesse Orosco 1 0.2%
Ron Gant 0 0%
Dan Plesac 0 0%
Greg Vaughn 0 0%

-----------

I take solace in the fact that a.) McGwire still has no HOF momentum.  Count me as one of those anti-PED cranks who wants to see guys like Bonds, McGwire, and Palmeiro erased from the HOF-approved history.

I take no solace in the fact that Blyleven (as no-brainer a HOF pitcher as currently exists on the ballot) only got 62.7% of the vote, with Andre Dawson (who at least has has a more colorable case for induction than Jim Rice) overtaking him.  And Tim Raines at 22.6%?  Disgraceful.

Don't even talk to me about the 5% of voters who left Rickey off their ballot.  For fuck's sake, people.  As G.O.B. Bluth would say, "COME ON!"

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How in the world

is Rickey Henderson not a first ballot HOFer. The man’s career is just mind boggling.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Jan 12, 2009 12:09 PM PST reply actions  

Take your pick from the following possible explanations:

1.) Senility
2.) Ignorance
3.) The stupid “nobody should ever get 100% of the vote” chestnut
4.) Some people just didn’t like Rickey – he definitely rubbed some folks the wrong way

None of these are sufficient for me, to be sure.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions  

5) Hanging, uh, pixels?

Margin of error sorts of things?

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jan 12, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

He is a first ballot HOFer.

He was just not unanimous.

Speaking of which, from when Rickey came up until the late 80’s I never saw a more disruptive and just plain awesome player. I always wanted to hate Rickey when I was a kid, but every time I saw him play he did something jaw droppingly amazing. He will forever be one of my favorites.

by Sec 108 on Jan 12, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Still though...

…there were something like 5% of voters who didn’t vote for him. It’s like asking ~540 people what color the sky is and having 30 of them reply “eight.” Sure, maybe there are a couple wackos out there, but 5%?

Their votes don’t really matter for guys like Rickey who are obvious HOFers, but it is irritating that they can make a difference in borderline cases.

by ubelmann on Jan 12, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

There's probably a minority of voters out there (let's say... 5%)

who believe Rickey was juiced and they are unwilling to vote for anyone they think was on PEDs. Heck, those five percent probably believe every player on the 1987-1988 Oakland A’s were juiced. They likely believe that everyone on the 2001 Mariners were juiced too.

If people are going to refuse to vote for McGwire… I’m sure some of them are assuming the same substance use for Canseco, Terry Steinback, Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckersley, and Rickey Henderson.

by johnbai on Jan 12, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

There's one voter who is on record saying that he won't vote for any player who played baseball during "The Steroid Era."

So he didn’t vote for Tony Gwynn or Cal Ripken, etc. He just turns in a blank ballot every year.

by Teej on Jan 12, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

There were apparently two blank ballots this season

I secretly hope that NOBODY gets inducted next year. (It could happen, with Alomar, Larkin, Edgar, and McGriff joining Blyleven and Dawson on the ballot and nobody having any particular momentum or being a no-doubter shoo-in. Also, the Veterans Committee doesn’t meet next year, so nobody goes in that way.) Then, in my daydream, Cooperstown says “fuck this,” we need some friggin’ revenue, nobody comes to Upstate NY for a no-inductee season and revamps the voting.

In my WET dream, they turn it over to the writers at Fangraphs, the posters and HOM voters of Baseball Think Factory (which includes me, of course) and maybe Joe Posnanski, Rob Neyer, and a couple other smart sportswriters.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah, that'll never happen.

If nobody gets elected, they’ll just do the same dance the following year.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 12, 2009 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

That's just ridiculous reasoning.

When did the steroid era begin? When is it going to end? Steroids were available when Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, and Willie Mays played. Who really knows if they didn’t at least try them at some point?

That voter needs to be expelled from the BBWAA.

by Wilder. on Jan 12, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Ironically enough, Canseco made it a point in his "Juiced" book to stop and talk about Rickey...

…saying (I paraphrase) “if there was ever one guy I was absolutely certain never came anywhere near steroids or PEDs, it was Rickey. That guy was just a physical freak of nature, never needed any other help.”

Of course, Canseco also vouched for Roger Clemens’ marital fidelity in that book, so who knows?

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Doh

I totally misread the post.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Jan 12, 2009 1:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Look, Jeff....

…I’m down with the Hall of Merit – I’m polishing up my statistical chops so I can participate intelligently in the voting for the next ballot – and I understand the manifold injustices and idiocies of HOF voting. (Whitaker off the ballot? Nary a vote for Jimmy Wynn back in his one year of eligibility? Rube Marquard and Rabbit Maranville? Bruce Sutter? JIM RICE?)

But let’s be honest: it still means something. If Edgar ever manages to get in (he’s got a hard road ahead of him with all the great names coming up after 2010), it’s going to MEAN something to us as M’s fans, on an emotional level. It won’t actually alter his actual on-field value, but it will still feel great. Just as it irks me that Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines and Alan Trammell are still on the outside looking in. (And in Trammell’s case, will likely remain that way forever.) I do think there’s something to be said for a deservedly great player being enshrined in Cooperstown, instead of being relegated to local memory.

And in the specific case of Blyleven, well holy shit: the guy had the sickest curve of any pitcher of his era (my dad raised me with tales about it…and he was a YANKEES fan). He pitched over 4,000 inning of great baseball. He won, he struck batters out, he was a workhorse, and he did it all on crappy teams for the most part. As Curt Schilling said a couple days ago on his blog (I know, I know, I probably shouldn’t ever mention him in any argument I want to win), you can’t look at his B-Ref page without asking yourself why the hell he isn’t already on a plaque. The stubbornness of these old BBWAA coots who refuse to vote him in just gets my goat.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

It does mean something and it should mean something

but I could never bring myself to care about an honor decided upon so poorly. I don’t care about the MVP, I don’t care about Gold Gloves, and I don’t care about the Hall of Fame. The theoretical idea is good, but in practice they’re terrible, and ignoring them has left no void in my life.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 12, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

TWO people voted for Jay Bell? TWO?

I knew Corky did. But there was another guy?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 12, 2009 12:58 PM PST reply actions  

Corky didn't vote for Bell. Pedro Gomez (he of the "Game Of Shadows" SF Chronicle Bonds coverage) did.

The kicker? Gomez ONLY voted for Jay Bell. Nobody else. Not Rickey, not Blyleven, not even Rice.

By the way, I’m also cheesed that a seven vote swing could have kept Rice out of the Hall of Fame, maybe forever. The most hilarious thing? JAY BELL HAS AN EQUAL AND MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY SUPERIOR HALL OF FAME CASE THAN JIM FRICKIN’ RICE.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm tempted to say the HoF voters don't care about defense,

except they voted in Ozzie Smith on the first ballot.

It’s as if they only measure defense above average, and the lowest score is zero (which, if they gave it even a moment’s thought, is stupid, because someone needs to be below average).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 12, 2009 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

HOF voters don't care about defense? They will soon enough:

Just wait until the current crop of all-hit no-glove slugger 1B/DH/corner fielder types come onto the ballot: Frank Thomas is the one obvious no-brainer (with added points for not only standing above steroid suspicion, but for being the earliest player voice sounding the alarm about PEDs and demanding a rigorous testing regime). But Jim Thome? Gary Sheffield? Carlos Delgado? No idea how voters will treat them. I suspect it will fall to “personality”: Thome eventually gets in, while Sheff and Delgado get pwned.

And I think voters also start to “care” about defense when they need to make a case for a player that they love but who otherwise would fall short offensively. Although Mazeroski was a Veterans Committee player, he’s a good example. Brooks Robinson, too. Someday Omar Vizquel might be as well.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions  

This: "The kicker? Gomez ONLY voted for Jay Bell. Nobody else. Not Rickey, not Blyleven, not even Rice" doesn't appear to be true

From the article I saw, Gomez voted for Henderson, Rice, Dawson, Trammell, Smith, and Parker, as well as Bell.

Not that it makes his vote for Bell any better, but it’s better than only voting for Bell.

by patsfan on Jan 12, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

McGwire belongs in the HoF. So does Bonds.

You can make the argument that Palmeiro doesn’t because he tested positive (and brought shame to the game by lying about it in front of congress), but I don’t see how anyone can complain about McGwire and Bonds without raising a bunch of ugly questions about whom you decide to exclude and on what grounds. Without some sort of universally applicable standard, you’ll make the entire thing grossly unfair.

I’d have voted for Rickey, Blyleven, Raines, and McGwire.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 12, 2009 1:08 PM PST reply actions  

I understand and respect this argument...

…and people who choose to vote for Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, Clemens, Sosa (?) etc. on a “numbers are numbers” rationale are justified in doing so. I, however, have a bit of the old moralizer in me, and my attitude is that even though we are likely to enshrine a number of players in the future who used PEDs and never got caught, the least we can do is exclude the ones who were openly tagged with them. Sosa might escape under this logic, but not Bonds/McGwire/Palmeiro/Clemens. I don’t need a positive steroid test to be almost 100% certain that Bonds/McG/Clemens cheated with steroids any more than I need a picture of O.J. standing over the corpses to know that he offed Nicole and Ron: the circumstantial evidence is so massive in those cases that I am convinced. This isn’t a court of law (with legal evidentiary standards), but even if it was those three would still have a good chance of conviction.

That said, I want to reemphasize that I also understand your objections. The sad fact is that there is NO solution that isn’t epistemologically questionable and morally unsatisfying. I just think mine comes closest, albeit in a messy half-assed way.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

My position is that Bonds was Hall-bound even before the PED business.

I would probably vote in McGwire. I would have to take a somewhat long look at the others.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jan 12, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Bonds was going to be an inner-circle HOF guy before the PEDs, this is true.

The question is whether his subsequent misdeeds have erased that case, a la Shoeless Joe or Pete Rose. The key difference, of course, is the lifetime bans both of them have – de jure instead of de facto.

I would disagree about McGwire, though. His insane power numbers were all he had – take those away (i.e. take the juice away) and he’s Dave Kingman.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Saying that it saved baseball would be going too far...

…but it certainly generated a lot of excitement and positive press. I think it deserves to go in the “tiebreakers bin” with stuff like postseason success and cocaine use.

by ubelmann on Jan 12, 2009 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

When did the juice rules come in?

When did McGwire play?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 12, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions  

McGwire never tested positive for anything

And there’s no proof he took illegal substances

The amazing thing is that had McGwire been less on an inner circle guy, less of a good guy, and more of an asshoel when he played he’d probably get more votes. It just that the BBWAA feels betrayed EVEN THOUGH THEY KNEW HE WAS ON ANDRO IN 98 AND DIDN’T GIVE A SHIT

by JI on Jan 12, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Even if he did, I would argue that his PED use didn't really overlap the rules against PED use.

So he wasn’t breaking any rules anyway.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 13, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

My point was

(and I probably should have presented it better)

that nobody in the media cared that he was using PEDs in 1998, in fact it was common knowledge he was using PEDs (ones that are now banned), and he was often toted as one of the “good guys” in the game. To go back and damn him for it now, without a positive test, without a conviction for possession of an illegal substance, without him being barred from the game, is a magnificent display of hypocrisy.

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Your lovable Cards boosterism is showing!

Don’t ever change, JI.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I would make the same arguments if he had left after 1997 to sign with the Angels.

Saying McGwire isn’t a HOFer because he was “one dimensional” is really really ignorant.

by JI on Jan 12, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

1. Huh?

2. Far from perfect

by JI on Jan 12, 2009 11:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I really like Albert Pujols.

A lot. I think it’s criminal that people even imply that Manny is as good as him, or that Ryan Howard is even in the same category.

I will use pretty much any excuse to photoshop him into things.

by Vatinius on Jan 13, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions  

That's a gourd.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 14, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

With McGwire in particular

my point is that he didn’t really break the rules. There weren’t any real rules against PEDs in the game, and even so the HoF isn’t bound by the rules of the game (they – incorrectly, I think – chose to exclude Pete Rose when he was banned from baseball, but they had to do it themselves because exclusion from ne doesn’t require exclusion from the other).

But, more importantly from an epistemological stand point, I don’t think morals really enter into it. Since we already have a system of rules governing the game, morals are subsumed by those. Asking whether something in baseball is moral doesn’t make any sense because we’ve agreed to let a different set of rules govern it instead.

(this is fun – I specialised in ethics in my degree, but epistemology was my favourite)

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 12, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it was absolutely correct to exclude Rose from the game, and I think he should never be reinstated.

As bad as PEDs are, they don’t even come close to striking at the heart of the game’s credibility the way gambling on baseball does. Some people hate the idea of players being juiced up on illegal drugs, others don’t really mind or can explain it away. But there’s no way to explain away behavior that forces you to question whether the outcome of the game wasn’t being externally manipulated.

Fuck over-sentimentalizing: if you bet on baseball, especially if you bet on your own team, then you’ve earned your ticket to eternal ignominy. I wouldn’t puke if Bonds or McGwire or Clemens eventually got in. I would if Rose did.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 1:38 PM PST reply actions  

Not to mention the thing that everyone forgets

the rule on betting against baseball was a written, hard-and-fast, not open for interpretation rule when Rose broke it. If any player did take steroids pre-uh, whenever the new rules came in, they broke no rules.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 12, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

But does Pete Rose deserve to go into the HOF as a player?

My understanding is that he only bet while he was a coach. If so, can you separate Pete Rose the coach from Pete Rose the player? I think it has to be considered.

by Wilder. on Jan 12, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe, but he shouldn't be honored as such

No speech, not logo on his hat, just a plaque that says “1989- permanently banned from baseball for illegal gambling”

by JI on Jan 12, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I also think it was absolutely correct to exclude Rose from the game, and that he should never be reinstated.

But, I think the HoF was wrong to decide that exclusion from baseball required exclusion from the Hall of Fame. As long as baseball didn’t expunge Rose’s records, his achievements should be recognisd by the Hall.

I think Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame.

I also think Rose was correctly banned from baseball and should never be reinstated.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 13, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions  

And oh by the way

Why no more love for Dale Murphy? He’s every bit the player Rice was, if not better.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 12, 2009 3:10 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah but he wasn't as feared?

You know who were better players than Rice? Fred Lynn and Dwight Evans

by JI on Jan 12, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

just reading that I wet my pants from all the fear

and I’m not even a ballplayer.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 12, 2009 3:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Answer: yes.

But that ship has sailed, it seems.

You could make an interesting case for Dewey Evans too. He’s a genuinely borderline guy, though.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think so.

Lynn was largely a creation of Fenway Park. Not entirely, of course, but if you put him in an Angels uniform from the beginning of his career onward, there’s no way he puts up that classic rookie year.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Wait, are you comparing Lynn to Grich or Evans?

Grich is clearly more deserving than Lynn. Lynn vs. Evans is a closer proposition, however.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 12, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Lynn was a very good player with the Angels

and he was past his prime when he left Boston.

He was a 129 OPS+ basically equal to Evans and Rice (god I wish we had adjusted wOBA) and he played center field (and indications he played it reasonably well). It’s a no-brainier that he was superior to Rice, and I’m not sure how to weight his defense against Evans’ longevity, but there’s no question that at his peak Lynn was far superior to both of the outfielders flanking him.

by JI on Jan 13, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions  

That would be awesome.

I can’t wait to see what he thinks of himself now, if on the day he broke Brock’s record he considered himself the greatest of all time. I’m hoping he’ll be carried in by a cadre of manservants on a Roman reclining chaise lounge or something.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 12, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

He'll probably ask some team to sign him.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 13, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

This is a really well done tribute

The Greatest

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey

by Big Jared on Jan 12, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions  

It's war!

Last year, when Raines didn’t get in, Tango et al. vowed:

64 of those writers were brave enough to tell the world that they didn’t know how to look at non-rounded-numbers in arguing for their vote against Tim Raines. Below you will find their names. Gently encourage them to come to this site, and spend an hour to lift that cloud away.

Be kind to them, as we sincerely appreciate that they actually spoke up so we can find them. But, they get a one year pass. If they don’t put Raines’ name right next to Rickey’s, we’ll mount our campaign.

by Teej on Jan 12, 2009 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

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