DH problem solved
by JI on Jan 1, 2009 10:48 AM PST
44 comments
The San Francisco Chronicle reported Thursday that Bonds, who has said he is not retiring and wants to play baseball again, underwent a hip procedure.
Bonds had the surgery with the intent of resuming his playing career this year, the Chronicle reported, citing a source familiar with the operation. With the start of spring training six weeks away, baseball's home run king would not be fully healed by then, but could be by Opening Day, the Chronicle reported.
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When I saw his face
I was really hoping you were reporting a contract.
by CKel on Jan 1, 2009 11:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Except that whomever shopped that
Neglected to change the tell-tale orange lining around the collar to match the hat. In other words, Giants jersey, Mariners hat.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 1, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked mine better.
Could have been an AI that did that and I’m not ready to accept those things as “whos”.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 1, 2009 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh
I wonder if Z has the stones to do that in his first year. Most of the controversy seems to have blown over anyhow. I wonder what can be expected from him in the DH spot? Marcel seems to think quite a lot – .373 wOBA which if my math is right would be something like 2 WAR given 400 PA.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 1, 2009 12:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Is Marcel figuring in a hip surgery?
If no one wanted him last season, no one’s going to hire him this year.
by JI on Jan 1, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you know as well as everyone what Marcel figures in
What was the surgery? It may have been something very minor. I think his March 2 trial will have a greater impact than anything else.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 1, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also of interest
here’s a post by Nate Silver about the accuracy/value of the different systems for hitters in 2007. You can see that whatever your favorite metric Marcel runs with the best of them, albeit a little behind. Still, for cases like this one I think he’s got to be taken with a large grain of salt – everyone is automatically projected for 200 PA and injuries are unaccounted for.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 1, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly, it won't happen.
Too bad. We haven’t had a lefty that scared people since Jr. left.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey
by Big Jared on Jan 1, 2009 1:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Respected but not feared.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey
by Big Jared on Jan 1, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Ausmis has been intentionally walked 68 times?
At first, I thought WTF?
Then, I realized that at least 95%, if not all of those IBBs were issued because he was hitting in front of the pitcher’s spot.
I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.
by andrewgolfsalot on Jan 1, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ausmus, dammit.
I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.
by andrewgolfsalot on Jan 1, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your mention of hitting in front of the pitcher reminded me of this.
Indirectly relates to the points raised here, but the talk of Bonds always makes me think of Jeff Kent and the issue of “protection”. FWIW.
Doug Drinen, J.C. Bradbury did a write up on the effects of the man on deck. The Protection Effect.
.
..a good on-deck hitter can hurt rather than help the batter in front of him. Since the effect is ambiguous we need to go to the data… Given the number of observations we are convinced that protection is a myth; it doesn’t exist.
Formerly dpseadvr.
by Kermit. on Jan 2, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In Baseball Between the Numbers
they mostly agree protection is a myth, but not all the way. There is some value to it if the following batter is very much worse (they quantify it) than the present batter. This is, of course, most likely if the following is a pitcher.
I AM intangible!
by kabrink on Jan 4, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro draws IBBs at nearly the same rate Griffey has in his career, Olerud is among is best all time as well.
And even so
1) Fear factor is almost completely irrelevant
2) How many teams ever have a player as “feared” as Griffey was? There are usually only 3-4 guys active at any point who have a comparable offensive attack. You can just trade for one or sign one as a FA simply because you want one.
by JI on Jan 1, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and 3)
that’s a dumb way to measure “fear”
Are you trying to say that Rusty Staub is one of the most feared hitters ever, or that pitchers would have rather faced Willie Mays than Staub? Or that Ron Fairy was more “feared” than Mickey Mantle?
by JI on Jan 1, 2009 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
With a name like Rusty Staub who wouldn't be afraid.
I just crapped my pants thinking about it.
by Vatinius on Jan 1, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No
I think you completely missed my point. I only used IBB because of the mind boggling gap between Bonds and everyone else. He has ~2.4x what Mr. Aaron has. The next closest thing I can think of is Rickey’s steals, but he is only ~1.5x Brock’s total. Beyond these two examples there just aren’t any offensive records with anywhere near this kind of gap between 1st and 2nd. But as noted below it isn’t a complete record.
I’m certainly not saying it is an end all be all statistic nor would I even joke that Fairly/Staub are in any way > Mays/Mantle. That would be only a little more silly than saying Olerud, Ibanez and Ichiro are in the same class of hitters as Bonds. Rusty Staub is an awesome name but he’s no Rusty Kuntz.
Career IBB as a % of PA/ highest single season total:
Ichiro 2.1% 27
Griffey 2.2% 25
Olerud 1.7% 33
Ibanez 1.0% 15
Staub 1.7% 24
Mays* 1.5% 20
Fairly 1.5% 11
Mantle* 1.3% 23
Aaron* 2.1% 23
Bonds 5.5% 120! Throw out the 120 and the next best total is only 68. He also has 12 season with 25 or more.
Again, the gap is video game ridiculous and a clear indicator of ‘fear’ in my humble opinion. You are correct in that there are only a handful of truly feared hitters playing at any given time which is why it’s so great to have one if you can. Hitters such as this tend to make the whole lineup better.
*IBB was not an official statistic until 1955. This is strictly a modern era number. Undoubtedly guys such as Ruth and Williams would be very high on the list.
As for our DH, I think we need a lefty with power and actual plate discipline (something sorely lacking in our current lineup). Bonds would seem to fit this criteria.
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey
by Big Jared on Jan 1, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I really doubt a 44 year old Bonds would continue to draw 60 IBBs per 120 starts
or whatever his usage was over 2007-08.
1) Managers should not have been walking him at that frequency, he was good but he wasn’t spectacular. My guess is most those IBBs were issued because of his dominance from 2001-04, and not based on his true talent level.
2) At 44 and coming off hip surgery, Bonds isn’t the .270/430/.550 hitter he was a few years ago.
by JI on Jan 1, 2009 6:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This seems like something that you would need to adjust for era
In the 1969 NL, I count 449 IBB, or about 37-38 per team. In the 2008 NL, I count about 784 IBB, or 49 IBB per team.
Still, I think that if you adjust for era and manually account for things like #8 hitters getting walked so that teams can pitch to the pitcher, it can become a reasonable first guess at whether or not a hitter was truly “feared” by opposing managers.
For instance, here’s the list of total IBB over the period of ‘74-’89 (encompassing Jim Rice’s career):
1. Mike Schmidt 198
2. George Brett 190
3. Ted Simmons 157
4. Eddie Murray 155
Dave Parker 155
6. Dave Winfield 145
7. Dale Murphy 141
8. Garry Templeton 134
9. Jose Cruz 129
10. Keith Hernandez 127
11. Darrell Evans 125
12. Bill Madlock 121
13. Rod Carew 120
14. Jack Clark 110
Tim Raines 110
Ron Cey 110
17. Reggie Jackson 105
18. Steve Garvey 104
19. Andre Dawson 103
20. George Foster 101
Ben Oglivie 101
22. Darrell Porter 100
23. Gary Carter 98
24. Bill Buckner 97
Ken Singleton 97
26. Leon Durham 96
Pedro Guerrero 96
Dan Driessen 96
29. Chris Speier 94
30. Darryl Strawberry 93
Al Oliver 93
32. Ron Oester 92
33. Chili Davis 90
34. Harold Baines 89
35. Tony Gwynn 88
Don Baylor 88
Chris Chambliss 88
38. Wade Boggs 87
39. Pete Rose 85
40. Warren Cromartie 85
41. Don Mattingly 82
Greg Luzinski 82
43. Bob Boone 80
Carlton Fisk 80
Mike Scioscia 80
46. Larry Parrish 79
47. Bob Watson 78
48. Kent Hrbek 77
Jim Rice 77
Carl Yastrzemski 77
Willie Stargell 77
I wasn’t really around for the bulk of Jim Rice’s career, so I have no recollection of whether or not he was “feared.” But it seems like he should have been intentionally walked more often than he was if he was truly the most feared hitter of his day. I mean, it seems pretty plausible that guys like George Brett and Dave Winfield and Rod Carew could have been at least as fearsome as Rice, if not moreso.
Now, would I claim that Kent Hrbek was just as feared as Rice? No. (Although their park-adjusted career rate stats are pretty close.) But when Rice has less than half as many IBB as George Brett, I start to suspect that Jim Rice was never the most feared hitter in the AL.
by ubelmann on Jan 1, 2009 8:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He might not've been the MOST feared...
…but Rice definitely was one of the most feared hitters. Brett, Carew, Rose, Murray, Schmidt, Rice…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Jan 2, 2009 10:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
why is nobody afraid of A-rod
they are more afraid of Cliff Floyd
by Flamefox111 on Jan 1, 2009 10:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Generall IBBs happen during the highest LI plate appearances,
and that is when A-rod is most susceptible to the rally killing double play.
by Vatinius on Jan 1, 2009 11:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He hits into every double play possible from the 7th inning on and every time in September
Unless he’s striking out or axe murdering orphans.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Jan 2, 2009 8:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would boo him at games, but secretly love him.
Big Z is the MAN.
by Taylor H on Jan 1, 2009 9:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly why we won't be signing him.
Well, you know, that and the fact that the casual fan would boo him too, and openly hate him.
I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.
by andrewgolfsalot on Jan 2, 2009 12:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The casual fan will do and think whatever the local media tells them to do.
by Matthew on Jan 2, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
...which is terrifying.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Jan 2, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you meant to say they will do whatever the left field scoreboard tells them to do.
by Sec 108 on Jan 2, 2009 9:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Bedard was a bust but all we traded for him were prospects and a bullpen arm so the trade was a wash
by Graham on Jan 2, 2009 9:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jose Vidro's leadership caused the 2007 Mariners to be an almost success.
All…we…need…is…more…players…like…this. Must resign Cairo. Must trade for Eckstein.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Jan 2, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Washburn is the anchor of the rotation.
Bavasi was wise not to give in to the Yankees.
by Paytheline on Jan 2, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I find it curious that "anchor" is used both as a positive and as a negative term when it comes to players.
by Matthew on Jan 2, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Even when not dealing with baseball
anchor can be use to describe anything from “critically valuable” to “poo”.
by JI on Jan 2, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Usually used in a positive connotation:
a person or thing that can be relied on for support, stability, or security; mainstay: Hope was his only anchor.
But then again:
5. anchor
Refering to a mans body hair style, the anchor goes across the chest, down from the neck and around up the arse crack completing the shape of an anchor.
Does your boyfriend have lots of body hair?
Yeah hes got an anchor.
by Paytheline on Jan 2, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
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