What's There to Tear Down?
by Matthew on Sep 8, 2008 12:01 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
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PrintIt would be nice to rebuild and clear off the horrible contracts on our docket, but there's a complicating issue that prevents that from occurring; nobody else wants our overpriced bad players either. For example, here's a list of the players that would eligible to be shipped out as part of a rebuilding process.
- Carlos Silva. Nobody's taking him.
- Jarrod Washburn: Needs to be traded no matter what, won't bring back value.
- Miguel Batista. Nobody's taking him.
- Erik Bedard: Injured or ineffective most of the year means you won't get nearly enough value back. Better to hold onto him for 2009 and hope he comes back to his dominant self, then trade him.
- J.J. Putz. Same as above.
- Kenji Johjima. Nobody's taking him.
- Adrian Beltre. Critically underrated and though it's progressing, his bad luck this year has hurt his case for reversing his reputation. Paired with his high salary I doubt you get great value in return and there's a better than decent chance he ends up as a Type A following 2009 so you really need to get good value back to forsake waiting for compensation.
- Ichiro. Never going to be traded unless he asks for it.
Getting back young value in return for your veterans is only half the battle in rebuilding though, there's also the case of shipping off those older players in order to make room for, and give playing to, the younger prospects. But again, we run into problems.
If we were constructing an ideal rotation for 2010 it would likely look something like Felix, Morrow and RRS followed by a pair of question marks. Problem is, it's not like we have anyone pushing to make a case for answering either of those. Feierabend is somewhat intriguing, but he has plenty of work left to do and other than him, there's what?
Washburn needs to go, but whither Batista, Bedard and Silva? Are they blocking anybody? I think only if all three are in the rotation next year and Batista's already been demoted to the bullpen this season. While I'd love to never have to watch Carlos Silva pitch again wearing a Mariner uniform, I think the worst you can say about him re: the future is that he's potentially blocking Feierabend from getting starts.
It's a bit more crowded in the bullpen, but bullpens are mostly fungible by nature and I think you have to take the time to try and re-build some of J.J.'s value before trading him because a good and healthy J.J., signed to a reasonable contract for a closer, could net you a lot. If you want to eat money and deal off Batista, then I would support that.
Kenji's already behind Clement on the depth chart so he's blocking... Rob Johnson? Meh. Again it seems better off to hope that Kenji can bounce back a little next year in part-time duty or else goes away on his own. Beltre is blocking Tui I suppose, but Tui could certainly use another year in Tacoma and he's only 22 so it's not like we need to press to get him in Seattle.
Ichiro, as stated, isn't and shouldn't, go anywhere.
So I'm left with confusion. If you're not going to be able to get back good young prospects in a trade, and you're not going to be able to open up blocked playing time for potential contributors, what's the point?
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What's the point?
The organization will find one, even if it’s the wrong point for the problem they have….
The point is to look like you're doing something.
Just like I will switch over to some work-related docs when I see someone coming, when the FO knows that people are watching for a sign of progress to hang their hats (and season ticket plans) on, they go out and make deals to show that they are trying to make things better.
The same thing happens when the trade deadline rolls around. I hope it is just as active, with just one or two minor moves as token changes.
//uninformed opinion
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I know what the PR point is.
I want to know if there’s a point from a baseball operations POV.
Bet Armstrong thinks....
….the PR point and the baseball point line up pretty well….
Not beyond PR = More $$
And more $$ = (theoretically) more operating budget to throw at long, expensive contracts for overrated #5 starters.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Sep 8, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
The same potential candidates who have been laughing at our attempts to do anything else?
Yeah, I think we’re safe.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Sep 8, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
This is going to be a strange offseason
I know that I would have the same focus as I did last year.
Defense, defense and more defense. Preferably on the cheap. We have decent arms on this team, let’s help them out by getting some gloves.
Let the offense fall where it may.
Letting the offense fall where it may kind of got us into this jam.
We can’t ignore how awful this team is at scoring runs. It’s been outscored by more than 100 runs this year. I’m all for an improved defense, but this team needs a lot more than that.
Improving the defense is a cheaper way to make the team better next year as a part of the rebuidling process.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Sep 8, 2008 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yes. It's cheap and it would improve the team.
But I’m saying it wouldn’t be prudent to focus only on the defense and call it a day. The M’s needs hitters AND defenders. I’m only objecting to the “let the offense fall where it may” idea.
As I've been saying
to be somewhat in Successful in 09 wee need to go with a Felix/Bedard/Morrow/RRS/Random#5(Silva or Wash) Rotation. Problem is this that this team has jaded me so much I can only the 09 rotation looking like one of these:
Felix/Bedard/Morrow/Wash/Silva
Felix/Bedard/Wash/Silva/Batista
Felix/Bedard/Wash/Silva/OverpricedFA
damn you veteran entitlement.
Jeff Cirillo was the first Mariner I remember being outright released.
Maybe not the first one, just the first I remember. Probably because it was big money, I was mad they got rid of D. Bell, and I thought the reasoning they fed the fans for Cirillo’s bat improving in Safeco was a load of crap. Seen a lot of that around here since then. Like you point out, there really isn’t a lot of WOW talent being blocked next year, so waiting for these guys to gain value or be outclassed enough by younger cheaper talent seems to be the best course. Sigh.
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
Huh, I don't remember that at all. All this time I was thinking they picked him up for league min.
My friends and I had even marked the date the date the M’s would finally be shut of his contract. Thanks for setting me straight.
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
Kevin Jarvis, Dave Hansen, Wiki Gonzalez and Vince Faison
but we had to give up Brian Sweeney :(
But we got better than Jarvis for him- we got a year of decent pinch hitting and Jon Huber out of Hansen and one of the carousel of catchers out of Wiki
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
I think it's high time we bring Aaron Sele back.
/Vomits on self.
If you don't have anything nice to say, you're likely reading Bakers comments section.
The Main Goal
I think the main goal that the FO, or at least Chuck Armstrong, has in mind is that they want a solid foundation in which this team can compete year-in and year-out.
What the team will look like going forward is going to be largely up to the new GM they choose.
I think Armstrong, at the very least, wants to keep much of the reconstruction to the new GM which is one reason, I think, why the Washburn deal was blocked. It’s not a good move but Armstrong keeps saying we’re keeping Washburn “unless the new GM decides otherwise.”
Even though next year will be sold as a rebuilding year it doesn’t necessarily mean that next year’s team can’t be good. The GM could whip up a team that has a possibility of contending and sell it to the FO as “This should get us started in the rebuilding process. This is Plan A.”
You're overthinking it.
Look at it from the team’s perspective.
We suck.
We need to do something about that.
Other teams have rebuilt when they sucked.
Fans get that.
Let’s say we’re rebuilding.
This isn’t really about whether to rebuild. This decision was probably made in asnwer to the question “What should we tell the fans we’re doing?”
So they said “rebuild” because they thought they could sell it.
They’re probably right.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Remember when we were short on catching prospects?
And the time we were short on infielders? These endless cycles of developing players… be nice to see the team bring some all the way through the system and build a core of players that way. A few break through here and there, but only when it’s like this. Maybe my perspective is completely off here, but that’s just the way it seems to have been with Chuck/Howard in the front office. The Wash/Silva/Batista/Ben Davis/Cirillo type acquisitions drive me crazy, especially when you see teams like the DRays/Twins that seem to do so much better with development. Why oh why can’t that be us…
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
Talk about a guy who for some reason hasn't been pushed...
Moore still needs to hit Tacoma and see how well he does there before he forces anything and in the meantime, I think that buys you enough time to see if Clement’s defense can come around enough. If so, you have a nice trade chit. If not, you have a new catcher and then you can move Clement. But nothing needs to happen until that time.
Given the injury, I think the M's need to make a decision on Clement's position.
This is his second meniscus injury; I don’t get the sense that he’ll start getting more durable. It’s possible that with more time at C he’ll develop into a passable defender… he certainly made some strides this year in Tacoma. But given the gap between where he is and where he needs to be PLUS this second surgery… they may just be better off buying him a 1b glove and having him work at that.
This is a big call, and I understand if they want to give him another shot at C. But if he’s your 1B of the future, that’s really important to know. It probably puts a cap on what you can offer Tex, it probably means LaHair goes away, etc.
Yeah
Johnson/Clement was the big excuse originally for leaving him in AA, and with Johnson in AAA for the duration, it’s likely that they didn’t want Moore in AAA unless he was going to be an everyday catcher.
The big hurdle for Moore, aside obviously from adjusting to higher level pitching: He needs to do something about that passed ball problem (23 in 105 games behind the plate). Great action out of the crouch and solid game management is neat and all, but when pitches are getting by you with RISP, there’s work to do.
Johnson had 21 in only 90 games.
It’s a problem with all of their catchers. Johnson’s arm and game management seem to outweigh the PB factor; the same may or may not be true with Moore.
This is all true, so the M's have to think creatively
(scary, I know).
They need a coherent philosophy to guide their rebuild. They can save money on pitching w/ the likes of RRS, Morrow, maybe Feierabend, and try to improve their defense by going after Coco Crisp and Adam Everett. Ibanez is gone, leaving you to fill LF with one of Wlad, Saunders or a 1-year rental on a player (I’d say Jeremy Reed, but he may not be around next year). They could make a push for one of the big-ticket starters like Burnett, but again, that’d have to fit their longer term plan. The team could easily be a .500 team next year, but they’ve still got to answer some questions on defense before they become a realistic contender.
If they want to try to improve the offense first and foremost, that entails starting Wlad, making a push for Rafael Furcal, and possibly one of the big-name OFs (or Tex).
For a team like the M’s, even the catastrophically bad roster construction they currently have isn’t an insurmountable obstacle. Batista is the most expensive 12th bullpen member in history, but the rotation has the potential to be extremely effective and cheap despite the arby raises for Bedard/Felix. The team DER could get a lot better without spending much, OR the team could overhaul the offense. All this entails is that the players swapped out are disappointing younger players (Reed, Betancourt, Bloomquist) instead of steady vets. God knows there’s enough room on the 25 man for this.
Shoot me now...
…but Dunn for DH helps a lot of things: OBP, SLG, and his lefty bat won’t be killed by Safeco. He’s young enough to still be mostly effective at the end of the likely 4-5 year deal he’ll require. Hasn’t had a ton of injuries, although he’s approaching that age where they can crop up.
I wouldn’t put him anywhere near first base or LF, except in Interleague.
I know he’s been talked about several times, and the conclusion has been “Not at the price he’d command” but if there’s ONE bat that could simultaneously fill one HUGE hole for the M’s both now and likely in the future, I’d put my money on Dunn.
This signature space for rent.
We'll see
I’m no longer certain he’ll command a huge price, but we’ll have to see about that.
There are a lot of COFs/1B types on the market this year, and many are better than Dunn in a neutral context. I think teams may also start to back off the insane level of salary inflation we’ve seen in the past few years. If that’s true, Dunn may be a relative bargain.
I'd agree, but you know exactly what's coming, you said it yourself
“not at the price he’d command”
Just not worth it, plus we’d have to give up a draft pick to get him. Also, like Matthew pointed out above, it’s not really wise to tie yourself to a DH for that long.
Is Dunn really that terrible at first?
While I agree that it'd be hard to give him 4+ years...
…he’d only be 32-33 at the end of a 4-5 year deal.
There isn’t a hitter in baseball like Dunn — Thome’s about as close as I can come up with (and he’s a pretty good historic comp, too). There are few hitters in HISTORY like Dunn.
I did some pretty deep research trying to find a player who averages ~150 Ks, ~110 BBs, and ~40 HRs a season. Especially a lefty, but even ignoring that, there aren’t even close to that many. He averages 30 more BBs a season than Rob Deer (not to mention 10-15 HRs). For me, Dunn is Jim Thome. Who wouldn’t want to sign Thome for his 29-34 seasons? Honestly? I’d take that risk, even if the club is “rebuilding.”
He’ll be expensive, sure, and the M’s aren’t likely to sign an expensive FA, but he’d very much plug one of the major holes in the M’s offense (power and OBP).
This signature space for rent.
Other historic comps...
A lefty Harmon Killebrew, maybe Reggie Jackson (although Dunn walks half again as much), 1997 Jay Buhner times 8 (i.e. Jay Buhner with health and longevity, which Dunn has shown in spades — making him MUCH more valuable, IMHO). Delgado’s not bad either. Strawberry might be another one, but I don’t think Dunn has a coke problem, so…
This signature space for rent.
Dave Cameron beat me to it
but these other guys all hit for decent or better average during their peaks and struck out less than Dunn (and Killebrew substantially less).
by G_ on Sep 8, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Right.
But haven’t we learned to look past batting average?
I know most of the hitters that are like Dunn are better hitters-for-average than Dunn, and as Dave explains below — BABIP is a good indicator of why that is — but I’d still say there’s a LOT of value in 100+ BBs and high SLG — and, of course, health.
This signature space for rent.
BABIP gets you the same result
Batting average is still useful in context, such as this one.
by G_ on Sep 8, 2008 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Dunn is not Thome
In his eight seasons in the bigs, Dunn has totaled a WPA/LI of 18.86 in 4,664 plate appearances. That’s an average of 2.42 WPA/LI per 600 PA.
In Thome’s career up through ‘99 (his age 28 season), he racked up 20.81 WPA/LI in 3,678 plate appearances. That’s an average of 3.39 WPA/LI per 600 PA.
Sorry Paul, but this comparison doesn’t hold up. Yes, they both walk and strikeout a lot and have power and are left-handed, but there are degrees of abilities within skillsets, and Thome is a lot better at this skillset than Dunn is. His career BABIP is .327 compared to Dunn’s .291, and that doesn’t include the fact that Dunn hasn’t hit his decline phase yet while Thome has, if you just look at the BB/K/ISO numbers, you miss out on the fact that Thome’s balls in play are better than Dunn’s balls in play.
There’s a reason Thome’s a career .280 hitter while Dunn’s a career .250 hitter. It’s not a fluke.
For an illustration
Click here, then scroll down. Look at Thome’s BABIP compared to Dunn’s – his best years don’t come close to Thome’s worst.
Right...
…so who’s a good comp for Dunn?
I know Thome’s not a perfect comp — and agree that he’s a better overall hitter. But I’m curious who a good comp for Dunn is.
This signature space for rent.
I'm not sure we need one
We have a pretty good idea of Dunn’s current true talent level (.240/.370/.510), a pretty good understanding of how his skillset ages (not well), and can make a good enough projection based on that. Even if you sustain his current level of performance for the next two years before you start knocking him down 3-5% per year down after that, he’s a .750-.800 OPS guy in 4 years. Considering all his value comes from his bat, there’s a pretty good chance that he’ll be a replacement level player by the time any long term contract ends.
Dunn’s probably a useful major leaguer for the next 3 years, maybe four. After that, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Replacement level?
OK, sure, there’s a chance of that, and with Sexson, we’ve just seen what an early collapse looks like.
But there are plenty of other similar players who’ve dropped into ‘league average’ territory at age 32, not replacement level. Derrek Lee, Pat Burrell, etc. are still quite effective players despite being over 30.
Adam Dunn’s wOBA+ is high enough that it can withstand some regression and still remain above league average, not replacement level.
What chance of collapse do you give for Tex, Pena, Howard, Jason Bay?
Yes, replacement level
I wouldn’t say Derrek Lee is similar at all. He’s a significantly better player than Dunn and has been for pretty much the whole decade. His skillset is also much more young player than Dunn’s, so we’d have expected him to age quite a bit better.
Burrell’s a pretty good comp, and you’re right, he’s been able to stave off decline up through age 32. I’m not saying that Dunn absolutely will collapse – just that it’s certainly possible, potentially even probable.
And, I’d argue that Dunn is league average right now, so no, he can’t sustain any regression and stay league average. If he regresses into being a league average hitter, with his defense and baserunning, he’s a replacement level player.
Texeira doesn’t have a huge collapse potential, but Pena and Howard aren’t guys I’d be giving long term deals too. Bay either, but for other reasons.
"I’d argue that Dunn is league average right now"
This is as a LF rather than a DH, right?
by Graham MacAree on Sep 8, 2008 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Either
I’m of the opinion that we should pretty much never penalize anyone more than -15 runs for defense, since anyone who is more than -15 runs is playing the wrong position. Whether you give him a -15 penalty for playing LF or a -15 penalty for being a DH, it all works out the same.
He’s basically been +3 batting wins per year over the last 3 years. Park effects, the weakness of the NL, and baserunning knock that down to close to +2 wins offensively. Toss in the negative 1.5 win penalty for playing defense like a DH, and he’s something like 0.5 wins above average.
Ok. I was going to argue that he was a tick above league average but we apparently agree
There goes my fun for the day :(
by Graham MacAree on Sep 8, 2008 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We do that a lot
Maybe we’re on to something?
Dunn's wOBA+ is better than Lee's and Burrell's
Lee became a somewhat different player in that he gets more SBs and hits for a better average. But back when Lee was with the Marlins and before he signed his big deal (making this a better apples-to-apples comp), his K% averaged ~ 28% or so. Dunn’s is higher, to be sure, but still not Custian. Yes, Dunn doesn’t hit for average, but his BB skills tend to smooth out swings in performance that affect even good players…like Lee.
I agree that you’d have to knock him down for being a DH instead of a 1B, but I don’t think there’s any way to claim that Dunn’s league average when his wOBA is consistently in the .390s. It’s really striking to see how close Dunn’s wOBA is to Tex… Yes, Tex plays defense and that’s great, but he’s going to get PAID for it.
Because even with that wOBA, it works out to about 30 runs above average
with the bat. Which is the +3 wins Dave mentioned. Now, that’s already counting park effects and I don’t think the NL + baserunning knocks him down a whole win, but it probably is half a win at least and yeah, Dunn might be about a win above average.
Keep in mind, that’s not really a knock against Dunn. A win above average is like 3 wins above replacement which is like a 12-15 million/year player value on the free agent market. I think Dave’s point in bringing this up in a negative light is that Dunn looks like a player that’s going to be a poor ager and that bodes terribly for any long term contract that he signs.
You might want to check Lee again
He basically got good in 2000, his age 24 season. His K% that year was 25.8. It went down to 22.5 the next year, bounced to 28.2% the following year, and then returned to 24.3% in his final year in Florida. That’s about a 25% K% for his four full seasons of pre-Cub years, compared with Dunn’s 32.5% K%. That’s a difference of about 50 strikeouts a year. He’s just not a comparable player to Dunn in any real way, shape, or form.
And, if you think he’s better than league average, feel free to show us why. I already laid out the win values – you tell me which of those is wrong.
1 WAR
By any decent measure of batting ability – EqA, wOBA, what have you – Dunn’s better than Lee. Remove some value for position, sure, but you’ve still got an above average player.
David Ortiz has averaged around a 118 wOBA+ for six years. Dunn is right around 114. Is David Ortiz an average player? Would it have been foolish to pick him up a few years ago?
He’s a 3 win hitter (above AVE., not replacement), and I think Matthew’s closer to the mark to take a half a win for baserunning/NL. wOBA+ is already park adjusted, so no further adjustment there is required. Now the key seems to be how to do the defensive penalty – straight -1.5 or some adjustment if he sees time in LF/1B. Even if it’s -1.5, that’s still a 1 win above average player.
So we’re back to the career arc/aging assumptions. I just don’t see a problem in taking a modicum of risk in a case like this – you’re getting an above average player who’s relatively young at a position(s) where the team has a glaring need. I’m positing you can get him for less/take on less risk than if you broke the bank on Tex. If you think that’s wrong, tell me why? Tex seems to be about a 2.5 WAR player, with a -1 adjustment. They’re the same age, and have many of the same skills (Dunn K’s way more, walks way more, however). Is Tex in a completely different category from Dunn?
Or more basically: what should the M’s do about this position – give it to Clement full time and pray to god he’s only 1 win above replacement? Give it to a LaHair/Wes Helms platoon?
Tex isn't 2.5 WAR.
His bat is better than Dunn’s (maringally), and he plays good defense and doesn’t suffer as much of a NL to AL penalty.
Bat: +3 WAA
Pos: -1 WAA
Glove: +1-0 WAA
Tex is also younger in age and has a much younger skillset (hits for average, has enough athleticism to play credible defense, better bat control, gets more infield hits).
Do we have any idea why young player skills age better than old player skills?
it would seem intuitive that plate discipline and power would remain constant whereas speed/athleticism would decline.
Is it because guys with young player skills can transition to having old player skills as they age (trade speed/athleticism for plate discipline/power), whereas someone with old player skills merely declines at what they were already doing?
by seattlebruin on Sep 9, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Dave can answer more fully, but I would say in a nutshell yes.
Younger skills have room to decline and adapt. Older skills are already declined.
My guess would be that much of it is based on bat speed and athleticism
Mike Cameron’s bat has aged pretty well, Buhner aged ok, Mark McGwire aged very well despite being a TTO guy…
It’s definately a subject worth exploring
by JI on Sep 9, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how to measure bat speed
but Cameron, Buhner, and McGwire are very different athletes – at least for size and speed.
Be open minded about what you don't know.
I'm always surprised how well Cameron aged
then of course, I may just be underestimating how bad Safeco killed him
Especially given the fact that he basically powderized his skull
I think even his fans (like me) underestimated how bad Safeco killed him.
Either that or the NL sucks. As of now, I’m still leaning with underestimated the park effect, but I don’t know for sure.
I loved Cammy - he is one of my five favorite Mariners ever
I’ve just always been surprised that he’s continued to play at a high level despite his problems with contact and that injury he suffered a few years back which we won’t talk about
No, he's not -
their baseball age is exactly the same. You’re saying that the 5 or so MONTHS of age difference is important somehow?
I also don’t see how his bat’s 3 WAA unless you’re weighting the more recent years higher… is that what’s happening? I can definitely see an argument for that, I’m just concerned that his career average in the AL is lower, and thus you might take a 1/2 a win for league/baserunning, just like we did w/Dunn.
The IF hit thing is a decent point, but it looks like over time the two are moving closer and closer together there. In any event, I’d say Dunn’s career SB lead (59 to 13) makes it even closer.
Younger is younger.
I’m not even weighing his recent years more, which I could. The 3 year + current combined total for Tex (130 RAA) is higher than it is for Dunn (107) by a noticeable margin.
And going back to 2004 or 2003 for both
makes it closer still. If I had to put money on it, I’d need to know where both were playing next year; that is, I couldn’t say who’d be more likely to put 35+ bRAA next year.
I’m still shocked that you think 5 months of age matters in any real sense. Do 6 weeks matter, ceteris paribus?
Aw fuck it – I apologize for taking this thread FAR, FAR from its intended discussion. It’d be cool to get your/Dave’s thoughts on the broader issue(s) raised in the post.
You generally don't look further back than 3 years.
And I’m not saying 5 months matters a lot, but it’s there, it’s real and it’s another point in Texeira’s favor. Does six weeks matter? Sure, just at such a small level to be statistically insignificant.
Also, DH isn't a position.
It’s specifically a lack of a position. And the difference between Ortiz and Dunn is probably 1-1.5 wins over the past few seasons. That’s pretty significant.
He's only +1 WAA
If you don’t make any adjustments for the NL or baserunning. Really. His RV600 the last five years: 32.4, 30.0, 11.4, 32.4, 27.6. Since he’s got another few weeks left in ’08, we can call that 30 or 31.
In his good years, he’s +3 wins above average with the bat. That’s ignoring ‘06, which happened, but we’ll put it aside for right now and still say he’s +3 wins above an average hitter.
The NL adjustment has been shown to be about half a win. Dan Fox’s baserunning study had him at -4 runs per season on the basepaths, and I think MGL had him at like -6 or -7 – I can’t find his post on The Book blog right now, though. Those two things have to take off pretty much an entire win, though.
So now, he’s +2 compared to an average hitter. Take off -1.5 for him being a DH, and your left with a +0.5 win player.
So, even if you ignore his bad season from two years ago and don’t mention that he’s played his entire career in parks perfectly suited to his skillset (making a blanket park adjustment overrate him), he’s still not a +1 WAA.
He’s a tick above average at age 28 with a skillset that ages really really badly. Pass.
by davidcameron on Sep 9, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I get married in 3 weeks
and Derek’s really busy with work. We’re doing the best we can.
Dave
Any reason why Thome’s BIP might be better than Dunn’s as a whole? They look to have fairly similar LD profiles since 2002 (obviously Thome was established well before then, but since there’s no data…), and Thome hits the ball on the ground more than Dunn does (38% Thome, 34% Dunn). Shouldn’t this indicate that Thome’s BIPs are worse than Dunn’s? Or is this a thing where the main value of the OFB comes from the possibility of a home run?
Several things
Dunn hits a lot more infield flies than Thome, an an infield fly is an automatic out.
Thome hits more groundballs, and groundballs become hits more often than flyballs.
Dunn isn’t exactly known for his hustle.
This is true, but then Dunn *should* cost less than Delgado, Thome-at-age-30, etc,
I think the heart of the disagreement here is what Dunn will command on the market. He’s coming off a year where he hit .233 in Cinci in a walk year. He’s a pariah to traditionalists for his K rate and his abominable defense.
If he’s really going to get a huge deal, let’s try and put some numbers around that – 4/$52? 6/$70? Yes, I know he wants $100 million plus, but I just don’t think he gets anywhere near that.
Clearly, he’s not a hall-of-famer like Thome, but I don’t believe he’ll be paid like one. There’s a point that he would be an attractive buy – everyone’s notion of that point varies, of course, but it’s there.
In general
Power is the trait that is most often overpaid for in free agency when it comes to hitters. Magglio Ordonez had a potentially career threatening knee injury and got $75 million. Alfonso Soriano strikes out every other at-bat and got $126 million. Carlos Lee turned an .895 OPS and bad defense into $80 million.
Yes, they all hit for a much higher batting average than Dunn, so there will be a few times that pass, but he’s going to get something like 5/75. J.D. Drew is just as hated throughout the game for his perceived laziness and inability to stay healthy, and he got $75 million from the one team that really wanted him.
Dunn is a 2-3 win player with old player skills. If you could get him for 3/30 or something, okay, but he’s not signing for 3/30.
Again though
All of the players you mentioned are clearly better. Each add more wins than Dunn, esp. w/defense taken into account (Lee might be close).
Still, the Ordonez precedent is a great point – but before the injury he had the magical .300 BA and 30HR power thing that makes many traditionalists drool. Dunn strikes out, can’t play D and much of his value is tied up in walks. Given the tools and past performance angles, I just don’t think Dunn can command anywhere close to the Ordonez contract. I may be wrong, and Dunn may sign an 8 year $90m deal somewhere, but I think the M’s need to make a reasonable offer. If someone goes nuts and overpays, fine. But given his age, I’d be fine offering a bit more than 3 years. Say, 5 and $45-50.
Less years, more money
I don’t think there’s any way we can believe that the market for Dunn is $9 million a year. Gary Matthews Jr got 5/50. Jose Guillen got 3/36. Juan Pierre got 5/44. Those are the kinds of guys that sign for the money you’re suggesting Dunn might sign for, and no matter how low you think baseball’s opinion of him is, it’s not that low.
Aubrey Huff got $7 million a year to be a DH. Aubrey Huff.
Dunn gets $13-$16 million a year, no problem. The question is for how many years.
Fair enough.
Part of the equation here is that I just don’t think teams are going to be offering as many GMJ contracts this year… we’ve started to see this with Kyle Lohse (something that occasioned a post from you).
So… I’d do 3/$39 for Dunn. Much more than that gets tricky, but I’m just not sure he goes past $60m or something, not with the year he’s had, and not with his baggage.
(FWIW, I’d be surprised if Dunn was valued above Huff right now – at least by certain orgs. Yes, the M’s are one of them.)
Hmm
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems like you’re assuming that Dunn won’t get a big contract because teams are dumb and overvalue batting average and he won’t get a big contract because teams are getting smarter and realizing that FAs are usually bad investments.
I realize these two aren’t completely mutually exclusive, but they’re pretty close. I don’t know that we can assume that teams are both too dumb and too smart to sign Dunn.
As for 3/39, that’s probably pretty close to the ceiling of what you could pay him without overspending significantly. If he’s a +2 win player, that’s paying $6.5 million per win for his current talent level. The going rate the last couple of years has been $4 ot $5 million per win for free agents. I think you could do better with a 3/39 contract than Adam Dunn, personally. I’d much rather give that money to Orlando Hudson or Rafael Furcal.
I'd rather give it to Furcal too
but that doesn’t mean that this franchise can’t do both.
You’re right – there is a tension here between market rates for BA and general market trends. But I still think we might see it. Some smart guy wrote this about teams embracing replacement level last year, especially in the pitching market.
At the same time, Theo Epstein’s gotten raked over the coals for the JD Drew ‘debacle’ and there are significantly bigger-name free agents available this year.
All of this means that the market trend is down as compared to 2006 (hell, 2007 was down, with the prominent exception of the Silva deal); I’m guessing we just won’t see a repeat of the Carlos Lee deal this year.
For Dunn, he’ll get big money if and only if teams seriously consider wOBA or something similar. Even teams that DO may not have to pay him according to his production in wOBA. So yes: I think teams overvalue BA (and I don’t think that comes solely from being an M’s fan), and I think the market for FAs is much better than it was a few years ago.
So: do you think FA inflation is going to continue going up, do you think it’s only going down for the marginal types like Lohse, or do you think the entire market is slumping? Also, how much do you think a great wOBA but the scorn of every traditionalist in the game matters to market value?
The point of that post
was that teams were embracing the fungible nature of the base of the talent pyramid – besides the ridiculous Silva contract, we weren’t seeing teams pay huge money to guys who were only marginally better than guys who could be found in Triple-A.
I don’t think we saw anything like that kind of correction at the top end of the pyramid, nor should we. We’ve always advocated giving big money to big time players (I called A-Rod underpaid for most of the last five years, for example), and I don’t see any movement away from teams paying significant dollars for players who have real value.
I just can’t imagine any scenario where Dunn signs for $9 million a year. There’s no way.
I can't imagine him signing for $/Carlos Lee either
Now you seem to be arguing that he’s league average, but that because the top of the market isn’t seeing a contraction that he’ll get a boatload of money.
If it’s 3/$13 per, fine. But if he signs a long term deal (i.e. >5 years) I don’t think it’ll be much more than 9, if any.
You’re right that we haven’t seen any correction at the top of the pyramid, but we’re not talking about the top of the pyramid, are we? I’m sure as hell not going to put Dunn and A-Rod in the same league.
Same problems
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/9/8/609923/why-i-m-not-overly-optimis#8603498
He’s younger but his skills are much older than Manny’s.
If I were in charge
I’d be looking to take on a bunch of horrible contracts with 1 year left on them (not sure off the top of my head who that might be) in deals which would also net us decent prospects in return for taking on these horrible contracts. The team can afford to do that although they might not
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
You mean like Washburn and Beluga Tits?
I guess, though their terrible contracts expire after this year, anyway.
The only dead money the team really has longterm is Silva and Johjima for about $20 million per through 2012. That’s not as awful as it seems.
by eponymous_coward on Sep 8, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I mean I want us to take on more dead money with just 1 year left on it
If doing so can also net us a decent prospect
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
So I was going to ask, Matthew, before you revised the post.
What do you think about signing Manny to be our DH for the next 4 years?
Ibanez isn’t likely to be re-signed and we need a DH that can hit. I know Manny will cost $20+ million/per, but it may be the best spent money on a free agent since Beltre. We have the starting pitching, barring health issues. The only thing I can see spending this much on Manny is the re-upping of Felix. But this team has shown it does not care how much they spend financially (Ichiro, Beltre, Sexson, Washburn, Silva, and Johjima are examples; good, bad, and atrocious).
I really don’t think signing Manny would be such a bad idea. He can help carry this offense while the young kids mature. Washurn and Beltre are coming off the books at least after 2009. We could obviously go after Teixeira, but like you mentioned before, that is a low-skilled position easily filled on the cheap.
I open this proposition to everyone, not just Matthew.
God no.
You’d be signing him to his 37-40 seasons and as a DH, his value just will come nowhere near close enough to what he’ll get paid. Furthermore, signing DHs to long term contracts is universally a bad idea (see Hafner for a recent example) and it really damages your flexibility going forward when you have a fixture at a DH spot. Just look what Jose Vidro cost us in terms of opportunity.
The only way I’d even think about Manny is if it was a two year deal. Then maybe.
Yes.
The age factor and the RH factor make this a bad idea. If we threw money at one bat this offseason (knowing T-Rex won’t be that bat), I’d throw it at Dunn. Fits the park better, is still not hugely old, and has good OBP and SLG skills…
This signature space for rent.
I'm following this conversation.
Just. But since a lot of the talk is centered on DH, I’m wondering how much a hitter loses moving from an everyday player to strictly DH? Would a player like Manny not only feel the park effect of Safeco, but take an offensive decline by not being a position player?
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
Or is this not important in considering the issue?
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
The Book,
or the Book people, ie MGL, Tango, say it is 5 runs. Ie a typical hitter moving to hitter, on average, sees his offense decline by 5 runs, relative to average.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Ahh, thanks. That clarifies a small gray area for me.
"Steee-rike!" cries the umpire, and the westward course of empire flows unchecked. Paul O'Neil in SI.
Perhaps there is a point.
Fundamental organizational change? Perhaps the FO is now mentally preparing themselves to expect the new GM to institute sweeping changes throughout the organization. Or they are just prepping the current employees for that " New CEO comes in and fires everyone" scheme while giving motivational speeches about a new direction.
Go Fo Broke!
Does criminally underrated by the MSM equate to being underrated by other (smarter) front offices?
I don’t think so. Not that I want to see Beltre traded, I’m just sayin’…
"Sit down and watch the game!" www.StopTheWave.com
This is true to an extent but...
…How does the GM spin giving up a lot to get Beltre to the fans? The smart ones will get it, but I understand just how different I am from most fans. Multiple times this year I’ve had to explain to people Beltre’s value. Even though a GM may understand Beltre’s true value, the perception of him makes it harder to trade him simply because the GM on the receiving end doesn’t want to get ripped.
A smart GM points out how much Alex Rodriguez is making now
then points out that Beltre’s contract is half of that.
You could probably package some of our crap to get rid of it.
Something like overpaid veteran starter + Yuni or Loafie + prospect, and get some pretty useful pieces back (though you’d likely have to either send cash or accept some garbage back in salary), like, say, someone who could start in the OF who is squeezed in a too-many-OFers situation.
That’s probably the best way to deal with our surplus of overpaid 5th starters, IMO.
by eponymous_coward on Sep 8, 2008 5:09 PM PDT reply actions
Silva's actually been a bit better than I would like.
A bit worse and he’d be below replacement level. I like it when I can call a player “worse than useless”.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
If you give Beltre an extension right now do you still lose draft picks?
If we gave Ibanez an extension right now would we lose draft picks?
Well, we wouldn't gain any draft picks.
But no, we wouldn’t lose any. The only way to lose a draft pick is to sign a Type A or Type B free agent. If you do that, you lose your first- or second-round pick, depending on whether you’re in the top or bottom half of the draft order.
A Type A or Type B from another team.
I think that’s where the confusion is.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
Good point. I wasn't thinking about the distinction.
There is not punishment for signing a free agent who was on your team last year.
If we sign a Type A or Type B free agent from another team, that team will receive our first-round pick if we’re in the lower half of the draft order. If we’re not, that team would get our second-round pick.
New CBA.
The team signing a type B free agent suffers no penalty. The team losing a type B gains a supplemental first round pick though.
Dammit.
Yes, you’re right. I was thinking too fast. So, in summary:
If someone signs your Type A free agent: You get that team’s first- or second-round pick (depending on where that team finished in the rankings last year), as well as a supplemental first-round pick.
If someone signs your Type B free agent: You just get the supplemental first-round pick.
If you sign another team’s Type A free agent: You give up a first- or second-round pick (depending on where you finished in the rankings last year).
If you sign another team’s Type B free agent: No penalty.
So we get Seattle's first round selection?
Sweeeeet, we’re gonna get Grant Green!
Aumont in 010
Do we call it oh-ten? Or jest 10? That’s gonna be one crappy decade for quick referencing. In any case, here’s hoping Aumont can reach the majors at age 21 in 2010.
What's wrong with twenty-ten?
It’s only one more digit in your subject to make it “Aumont in 2010”…
by great gonzalez on Sep 9, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions
What's wrong with twenty-ten?
It’s the year we make contact and Jupiter turns into a second star in our solar system. We’re all doomed!
He's thrown 55 and 2/3rds innings of pro ball.
And that’s low A ball, to boot.
If Aumont makes the majors in 2010, it’s likely as the Brandon Morrow route.
by eponymous_coward on Sep 9, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
For 2012, it's "the 1-2" and so on.
Hey, you suck McBain.
by oc on Sep 9, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
If things break right he, MIGHT be ready for AAA
AA in 2010 is also optimistic, though possible.
Both of the above assume no setbacks.
Your 2009 Seattle Mariners DH
Ken
Griffey
Jr.
Have had the feeling ever since he was traded to Chi-Town.
There’s at least six or seven players I can name immediately that I’d rather have the role, but I just think that this ownership somehow makes that happen.
The nostalgia will be great for a few weeks. And then. Reality.
I hope I’m wrong.
If they punt next year, I'm fine with it.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Sep 9, 2008 6:45 PM PDT up reply actions
As far as a PR move goes, would you think it might be brilliant?
As far as putting asses in seats, but maybe in a city like Seattle with corporate ticket buyers it’s not so important. I was reminded of that fact recently and it makes sense, but still…
"You make him miss by getting him to swing in the wrong plane. A neat trick is getting him to swing at the wrong time." Warren Spahn.
I'd rather they not punt next year, but if they do (and all signs point to them doing so) it makes a kind of sense.
It’s not something I would do, but there’s certainly a reasonable case to be made for it from a business standpoint, and it would make a lot of people happy.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Sep 10, 2008 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions
We should trade for Delwyn Young
He’s basically in the same situation as Reed but he’s good and the Dodgers don’t have room for him.
The important thing is that we get younger.
Delwyn, or Delmon or maybe Dmitri. They’re all equally young.
by Matthew on Sep 9, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Not a pun, yet nice word play. Have to agree.
"You make him miss by getting him to swing in the wrong plane. A neat trick is getting him to swing at the wrong time." Warren Spahn.
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