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Series Preview: New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners

Seattle: 54-85
Yankees: 74-64

GAMES

Game 1: BRANDON MORROW!!! vs Andy Pettitte*
Game 2: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs Sidney Ponson(snicker)
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Mike Mussina

Andy Pettitte is in the midst of another Andy Pettitte season. He's hitting the zone a little more often and missing a few more bats leading to a few more strikeouts and few less walks than 2007. But balancing that is a slight uptick in home runs allowed.

Hahaha, oh sorry. I mean, Sidney Ponson. His control is uhhh hahahaha. Sidney Ponson! He's horrid.

With Mussina's stuff falling ever further toward Triple-A quality, he's taken to pounding the strikezone and has ratcheted up the groundballs. The result is that despite missing bats just over 4% of the time, Mussina has produced another decent season of performance for New York.

However, there are some huge red flags, notably in his called strikeouts. Mussina actually has more strikeouts of the called variety than of the swinging type and called strikeouts do not carry over year-to-year anywhere near the level to that of swinging Ks. Mussina seems to me to be tight-rope walking on the cliff.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Ivan Rodriguez/Jose Molina
1 Jason Giambi*
2 Robinson Cano*
3 Alex Rodriguez
S Derek Jeter
L Xavier Nady
C Johnny Damon*
R Bobby Abreu*
D Hideki Matsui*

Six of the ten hitters here have bRAA totals above +10, which is an incredibly potent amount. Furthermore, four of them (Abreu, Damon, Rodriguez and Giambi) are above 20. Xavier Nady would be among that latter group if he had enough at bats in the American League.

CONTEXT

Brandon Morrow? Against the Yankees? That's insane, but ok, this should be interesting to watch at least. If he makes it through four innings, that would be a success. If he can limit walks against a team known for its discipline, that would be a success. If he can get some missed bats on offspeed pitches and maintain decent velocity on his fastball, that would be a success. I'm not optimistic for success.

I swear, if we get shut down by Sidney Ponson, I will... I will... well, I probably won't do anything. But it would be really stupid.

Jeff has his Ichiro is Fine post (though to brag, I had been saying it for awhile before) and I have my I Love Adrian post (though to be humble, my love for Adrian is eclipsed by many others). Maybe I should pen something about how much I adored 2005 Felix and Yuni and 2004 Jeremy Reed.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Imperial Red
Lagunitas Brewing Company. Petaluma, CA

A copper red color with some cherry bits to the aroma. A somewhat creamy palate and some decent amount of hops.

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HAPPY MORROWEEN!!!

Hmm… anyone got any better ones?

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Sep 5, 2008 6:38 AM PDT   0 recs

You are up far too early.

I’m interested to see what Morrow does this evening, particularly in terms of making it through more than a few innings. At least it will be a different way to have a potential meltdown.

I'll shut up lest you ban me like you banned butthol.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Sep 5, 2008 7:25 AM PDT   0 recs

I would imagine with the 8:00AM Eastern on the dot posting time, this was probably posted while he was asleep.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Sep 5, 2008 9:20 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I prefer to think Matthew is precise like that.

I'll shut up lest you ban me like you banned butthol.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Sep 5, 2008 2:37 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We've already been shut down by Ponson this year

If it happens again, I’ll laugh a bit, but the shock’s already worn off.
May 6th – 7IP, 1R 1BB 2K, Rangers win 10-1.

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 9:19 AM PDT   0 recs

Sindey Ponson is, was, and will remain Sidney Ponson

If his stats in a tiny sample were slightly better or worse, I don’t think it should matter. Have his pitches changed in velo or movement?

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 9:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The sample sizes in NY and TEX are about even

and his control in TEX was a lot better.

by Matthew on Sep 5, 2008 9:58 AM PDT   0 recs

Right, which is why we're better off looking at his skills and career numbers

Sidney Ponson is who we thought he was. That Texas SSS thing notwithstanding, Sidney Ponson isn’t good. It was just as ridiculous to get shut down by him in a Texas uniform as a Yankee uniform or a Twins uniform.

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 10:12 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Having Ponson on the Cardinals for three months

did much to prepare me for the Silva years.

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 10:14 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Clearly

but skill levels aren’t static. I’m not claiming, or have ever claimed, that it’s a dramatic talent difference. But everyone goes through high and low periods. It’s more ridiculous to lose to Sidney Ponson when he’s bringing his D game than it is when he’s bringing his A game no matter how bad his A game is.

by Matthew on Sep 5, 2008 10:30 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I just think if you get shut down, the opposing pitcher brought his A game

The question is: is it less likely that Ponson brings his A game now than it was a few months ago. I have no idea, but I kind of doubt it. I think he strung some decent outings together in a small sample, then got traded and regressed to the mean. Might he now regress back towards his xFIP? Sure, why not. (Yes, he’s right at his tRA right now, and so maybe he won’t regress anywhere. But he’s still capable of shutting of out, and whether he’s walked incrementally more or less this month doesn’t really mean much to me. It’s like: should we have expected Ponson to crater like he has after the trade? I say yes, despite a sterling tRA in Texas.)

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 10:57 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You've watched enough Mariner baseball

to know that a hitting team getting shut down does not guarantee that a pitcher was at his best.

by Matthew on Sep 5, 2008 11:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes.

Us getting shut down isn’t always always like this game.

I wish it were, because then at least we’d get to watch some really excellent pitching.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair enough, but that's still something of a side issue

Is Ponson more or less likely to shut the M’s down now? I still don’t think we can say one way or the other. I don’t think the fact that he’s had 4-5 ‘d’ games in a row means much, any more than the fact that he had 4-5 ‘B’ games earlier on meant that he’d have a decent year. Kind of reminds me of the studies of hitting streaks…

The M’s have a way with bailing people out, but I’m still not sure that Ponson’s suddenly forgotten how to do something he knew how to do in Texas. He was on a hot streak, now he’s on a cold streak. He sucks. That’s that.

Just to clarify, the issue isn’t whether the M’s will/won’t get shut out when he’s bringing his ‘D’ game, it’s whether or not he’s capable of throwing in a decent game (better control). I’d just like to know if he was actually doing something different in Texas. My hunch is no, and he got lucky with batters swinging more or hitting centered pitches at people (or swinging through them). But that’s a big pitch fx project, and projects involving Ponson are by definition a waste of time.

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 1:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

==
I swear, if we get shut down by Sidney Ponson

God I hate him so much

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 10:06 AM PDT   0 recs

You can make a *case* for 1998 too

Not saying it’s a slam dunk; depends on how far above average he was on D. But adding SBs, defense/position and even park, he overtakes the likes of Garciaparra, Jeter (!) and Juan Gonzales (bleh).
Albert Belle was the best pure hitter that year, but again, depending on the magnitude of the defensive adjustment, etc… (Incidentally, how many was Belle screwed out of in a short career?)

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 10:29 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Assuming his defense is a good as we were led to believe

Bernie Williams has a very sting case in1998.

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 11:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Sting Case!

Bernie Williams got a lot of notoriety at the end of his career for hilariously bad defense, and I’m not saying that he was bad in 1998, but I’d be shocked if he was waaay above average then.
It’s possible, and yeah, Williams had a decent case then. Like A-Rod, he didn’t get the most votes on his team, let alone the league.

by marc w on Sep 5, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He's easily the best IMO

with Sizemore, Granderson and Maeur relatively tied 2-4 about a win less valuable.

by Matthew on Sep 5, 2008 10:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If Minnesota wins the division

they’re going to give it to Morneau again.

If not, get ready for MVP Pedroia.

Cliff Lee’s gonna get robbed.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 11:29 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

MVP is for the most valuable player.

There’s no reason why that couldn’t be a pitcher. It’s not the Most Valuable Hitter award.

Don’t hitters have the Hank Aaron award?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 11:46 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The Hank Aaron award isn't a real a award

it’s determined by a fan internet vote.

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 11:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, so the Hank Aaron award is dumb.

The hitters don’t have their own award. That’s too bad for them.

A pitcher can be the most valuable player.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:08 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

A starting pitcher factors into no more than 35 of his team's 162 games

A starting position player usually factors into nearly all of them.

by Gomez on Sep 5, 2008 12:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not the strongest argument

a starting pitcher goes through more plate appearances than a hitter does.

by Jeff on Sep 5, 2008 1:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

==
It’s not the Most Valuable Hitter award.

I think we’ve been trying to get this across for years.

Defense matters.

The MVP almost always goes to a player on a playoff team (or a team that narrowly missed if their counting numbers are awesome enough) who had a lot of RBIs and did it “by themselves.”

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 12:04 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And that's dumb. It should go to the most valuable player.

And that’s Cliff Lee.

If you insist picking someone on a better team, might I suggest Roy Halladay?

If you insist on picking someone on a contending team, then we’re in Pedroia/Mauer terrtory.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Okay, Halladay is a big reach.

But Lee’s pRAA is comparable to ARod’s bRAA (thank you StatCorner). If A-Rod warrants consideration when so does Lee.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

when = then

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Pitchers pitch

Fielders hit and field.

It’d be one thing if A-Rod were a DH. He isn’t.

by Jeff on Sep 5, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Point taken.

Pitchers field, too, but their impact with the glove is pretty small.

So to win the MVP a pitcher would need to be exceptionally good, or the hitting class would need to be damaged somehow (like the top 8 hitters got injured so they only played partial seasons).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:25 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Lee is +43 runs as a starting pitcher

A-Rod (for example) is +45 runs as a hitter who also makes a contribution in the field.

You have to be a pretty fucking good starting pitcher to be worthy of the MVP.

by Jeff on Sep 5, 2008 12:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Would you give the 1999 MVP to Pedro?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 5, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd consider it

But Nomar, Manny, Alomar, Pudge, Jeter and Bernie Williams all had great seasons and it deserves more thought than what I can give now.

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 12:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

To me PT and defense are the only issues

He’s slipped the past few years be his D is probably still ok.

by JI on Sep 5, 2008 11:49 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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