Why it's Important the Rays Win the East

by Matthew on Sep 4, 2008 1:05 PM PDT in The More You Know Comment 25 comments

With about 25 games left for most teams in the season, it appears that the American League playoff picture is nearly settled. We know Anaheim is winning the West. We know the Central division champ is going to be either Chicago or Minnesota. We know that the Eastern division champ is going to be either Boston or Tampa. And we're fairly sure that the loser in the East will be the Wild Card winner since currently Eastern-trailing Boston holds a five game lead over Central-leading Chicago.

So, we have five teams for four spots and we're 95+% sure on three of the four teams getting in. What's left? Well, the other team obviously, but also importantly, the seeding. Baseball playoffs are seeded as follows: the division winners are seeded by record with ties broken* in the first three slots with the Wild Card winner getting the 4th seed. Then, the teams are matched up 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3.

UNLESS

Teams in seeds one and four are from the same division. Then, the match ups are amended to be 1 vs. 3 and 2 vs. 4.

Okay, so what you might be asking. Well, lets map out the various likely seeds. For this I will make an assumption that the Central division champion will have the worst record among division leaders and thus always earn the third seed.

SCENARIO 1: Angels finish with best record, Rays win east.

Angels (1) vs. Red Sox (4)
Rays (2) vs. MIN/CHA (3)

SCENARIO 2: Rays win east, finish with best record.

Rays (1) vs. MIN/CHA (3)
Angels(2) vs. Red Sox (4)

SCENARIO 3: Angels finish with best record, Red Sox win east.

Angels (1) vs. Rays (4)
Red Sox (2) vs. MIN/CHA (3)

SCENARIO 4: Red Sox win east, finish with best record.

Red Sox (1) vs. MIN/CHA (3)
Angels (2) vs. Rays (4)

So, you see, if the Rays hang on in the East and both them and the Angels finish ahead of the Central leader (highly likely) then no matter what, they'll face the Central leader and the Angels and Red Sox will have to face each other. That means that only one of them can advance and it gives the Rays the easiest first round pairing.

If instead the Red Sox come back and take the division, and the above assumption holds, then no matter what, the Rays will have to face the Angels and why I'd still be confident in their chances, it's a tougher opponent and worse, it opens up the door to the possibility of a Boston - Anaheim ALCS.

Keep winning Tampa. It means a lot.

* same record, playoff assured tiebreaking procedure for seeding is as follows:

Head to head record.
Best record among intra-league games.
Best record among last 81 intra-league games.
Repeat above for last 82 intra-league games. Repeat as needed.

UNLESS

One of those two teams is in the same division as the wild card winner, in which case the other team gets the top seed.

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Comments

Why would the Rays face MIN/CHA if they have the best record? Why wouldn't they face the Red Sox in scenario two?

by Fogel on Sep 4, 2008 1:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

`

Teams in seeds one and four are from the same division. Then, the match ups are amended to be 1 vs. 3 and 2 vs. 4.

by Matthew on Sep 4, 2008 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah so I was supposed to read the article

by Fogel on Sep 4, 2008 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something I will hate when it happens: the Rays lose early on in the playoffs and I will have to hear about how their young team was not experienced enough to compete in the playoffs

by Fogel on Sep 4, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those articles are already being written predicting their September collapse.

They’re even more annoying that the new article up on MLB.com pimping Morneau as MVP.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 4, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even ESPN can't pimp Jeter for MVP any more

so they had to move on.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 4, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad everyone hates A-Rod

He has the best numbers again, as usual, but since he’s “not a winner” he won’t get enough votes. I think Carlos Quentin probably wins if the White Sox make the playoffs, or Pedroia (ugh) if they don’t.

by Schaefer on Sep 4, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sizemore?

No, his team sucks. And Lee is better anyway. But he’s a pitcher.

I’m really going to hate this MVP selection, aren’t I?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 4, 2008 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Markakis and Huff have also had ridiculous seasons. But they’re on the Orioles.

I could live with Quentin, his wOBA is solid and he’s slugging about something like .600. But I’m going to puke if it’s Pedroia.

Cliff Lee has “his own award”

by Schaefer on Sep 4, 2008 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pedroia's actually a better selection than Morneau.

And no one with a brain would give the thing to Pedroia. So Morneau doesn’t pass the laugh test.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 4, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lee needs to win the MVP.

It really isn’t close.

And if I can’t give it to Lee, my second choice is actually Halladay (though he’s clearly not as good as Lee).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 4, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing that confuses me about Lee

is that all his stats seem to be at career averages except for FB% and HR/FB, which are way lower than average. That seems like luck to me. Don’t get me wrong, he’s still been awesome. I’d like to hear more people talk about him and argue for/against him because I haven’t watched him enough to really know what I think.

by Schaefer on Sep 4, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs