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I Miss The Royal Curve (?)

Note: what follows below is pretty much simple speculation at its heart. Do not take me at my word.

We all remember the Royal Curve. It was a hammer curve, a curve with sharp significant break that Felix used to soil the britches of both lefties and righties whenever he felt like mixing things up. It was a dominant pitch, one of Felix's four that fell somewhere between a 70 and an 80 on the traditional scouting scale. It was beauty. As a man who's madly in love with a good changeup and deeply terrified of hanging curves, it takes a lot for a breaking ball to get on my good side, but for me, the Royal Curve could do no wrong. It was as if the pitch were made up of Bubble Tape and gummy bears.

Then, last April, Felix got injured. And upon his return, he made a few adjustments, one of them affecting his curve.

Mariners pitching coach Rafael Chaves recalled in a phone conversation Saturday how he sat down and spoke with Hernandez on a team flight about how the young right-hander needed to be able to throw a breaking ball. They decided to change the grip of his curveball. "Once we did that," Chaves recalled, "he has felt better and better."

In terms of keeping him healthy, the new grip has worked great. It took a little while for Felix to get comfortable transitioning from a knuckle-curve to something more conventional, but before too long he got familiar with it, and thinks that it's helped reduce the strain on his elbow. I'm not going to argue with him. Nobody knows a pitcher better than the pitcher.

But in terms of pitch effectiveness, I can't help but feel like Felix's curve has taken a step back. Obviously we don't have any PITCHf/x data for when Felix first came up, but the curveball he flashed on Opening Day '07 looks different from the curveball he's flashed in '08, according to both the numbers and appearance. Check it out for yourselves:

Felixcurve07_medium Felixcurve08_medium

On the left is Opening Day 2007. On the right is Felix a few weeks ago. One pitch doesn't tell the story, but I don't recall seeing Felix consistently throw curves like the one on the left in a long time, quite possibly since before he got hurt. The one he throws now often feels like it's missing something - some kind of snap there at the end to take it from decent to devastating. It just doesn't look like the same pitch to which I so happily grew accustomed. And I don't like that.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just seeing things, and his curve hasn't changed as much as I feel like it has. And I probably shouldn't be upset about anything that a pitcher feels is in his best interests when it comes to staying healthy. But when I see Felix throw his curve now, I'm just not wowed the way I used to be. It's like that with a few of his pitches - off the top of my head I feel like only his changeup has made progress since his debut - but with the curve it seems the most apparent. It's troubling, but this is our reality. The good news is that Felix is still blessed with one of the best repertoires on the planet, but one can only hope that the little changes he has made to his arsenal for the sake of better health do not too dramatically alter his ceiling, because that is a world in which I'd rather not exist.

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Comments

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The .gif snowball is rolling

Felix’s curveball, 2005:

by Jeff on Sep 3, 2008 10:25 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That makes me tingly.

If your life had a face, I'd punch it in the balls.

by royalcurve on Sep 4, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

After looking at a bunch of stuff a little more

it looks as if Felix can still pull out a big looper from time to time, but the consistent sharpness to the break doesn’t seem to be there. I wish there were a way to quantify this. Instead I’m left uncertain of whether or not I’m even noticing something real.

by Jeff on Sep 3, 2008 10:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's real.

In the 2005/6 time frame, I recall being astounded and the sharpness and magnitude of the break on his curve. Even when he missed with it, it just DOVE at the end. I’d sit with my mouth agape several times a game.

Now, I can’t even remember the last time I gasped at one of his curves. Sometimes impressions and memory can deceive, but I don’t think this is one of those cases.

by FWombat on Sep 3, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Probably best to just assume the worst and start drinking

But yeah I think we’ve all noticed the lack of the ‘oh shit’ curveball recently

by Nick S on Sep 3, 2008 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

You know, that subject line is a great quote. I’m going to write that down.

by appleshampoo on Sep 3, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best case scenario

It’s white noise or he’s dogging it because it’s a lost season.

by Gomez on Sep 3, 2008 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know everyone feels this way,

but I’ll take the less impressive curve anyday if it means he stays healthy. I remember the pain and fear from that DL stint all too vividly.

by DCMariner on Sep 3, 2008 11:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It would appear (?) that he's less confident in the pitch as well, if his pitch selection is any indication

going from about .219 curve ratio in 2005 to .088 this year. That’s 13% of his pitches that have gone elsewhere, though without pitch f/x data, I’m hesitant to assume that there aren’t some sliders mixed in there as well, especially given that per FanGraphs, his slider usage has jumped dramatically as his curve usage has gone down

For the season we have Pf/x data, he threw 12.4% CB in 2007

by seattlebruin on Sep 4, 2008 6:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's because he's still

establishing his fastball in the 5th inning.

All he has to do is mix his pitches more. And have better command. And stay away from the 3-1 down the piper…that’s it. Sounds like every pitcher in baseball. The first one is key. Every outing batters just sit fastball and he gives it to them.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 4, 2008 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which is why we needed Pf/x years ago

so we could see Felix’s pitch selection pre and post injury and see if he’s consciously staying away from throwing first pitch curves

by seattlebruin on Sep 4, 2008 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's definitely different.

His curve was the pitch that made me get up out of my seat when I first saw him pitch for Everett in 03.I remember turning to my friend and saying “Tell me I didn’t just imagine that pitch, holy shit!”

It’s been a while since I was that impressed by his pitches. Remember those game threads in 05 and 06 when his pitches just blew us away? When’s the last time we reacted like that? It is just because we’re used to it? I miss those days.

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.277/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Sep 4, 2008 8:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So I thought about it

I really do think his curve is missing break because he’s dogging it to protect his arm in a lost season.

by Gomez on Sep 4, 2008 8:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If that's true

there’ll be evidence in the pitch f/x since he obviously wouldn’t be “dogging it” early in the year.

by Matthew on Sep 4, 2008 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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