Howard Lincoln on the GM Search

by PositivePaul on Sep 26, 2008 10:30 PM PDT Comment 30 comments

Watching the post-game show on FSN, and they've got Howard Lincoln talking about the GM search. Here's a transcript, as best as I can keep up:

It's clearly the most important decision I've ever been involved with.

We've faced a lot of challenges in our 17 years with this ownership group: players strike 1994, falling tiles, building Safeco, cost overruns, but even convincing MLB this was a good ownership group -- we've been able to meet these challenges. I'm confident we'll be able to meet the challenge of picking the next GM.

...GMs all make a lot of decisions and you don't know if the decision is right or wrong at the time; you figure that out later. We want someone as GM who most of the time decisions turn out right.

Brad Adam: When can this team realistically contend?

HL: Hard to say -- depends on views of new GM. We want to get this turned around as quickly as we can, but We're going to ask new GM to prepare comprehensive plan for both short-term and long-term that gets us back to playoffs.

Full interview on Sunday at noon on FSN.

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From the AP off of SI.com

SEATTLE (AP) — Mariners president Chuck Armstrong said his team is vetting a wide range of general manager candidates, pointedly leaving open the possibility of Seattle hiring the first female general manager in major league history…
“It’s time for some fresh thinking,” Armstrong said at the end of his 23rd season with the team — what he called his worst and most “miserable” one.
“We’re color blind, gender blind,” he went on to say. “We just want the best person that we think would be the best person for the Mariners as we move forward,” Armstrong said.

by Slurvey on Sep 26, 2008 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good job on the sourcing!

by Teej on Sep 26, 2008 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"gender blind"? ... Kim Ng maybe?

this is the most hope I have felt in a long time with this team!

by mark sobba on Sep 27, 2008 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, it would be wonderful if they are "computer geek blind" as well.

by mark sobba on Sep 27, 2008 1:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please hire a smart GM please hire a smart GM please hire a smart GM

by BrianL on Sep 26, 2008 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well

Based on today’s quotes, looks like whomever the GM’s gonna be is gonna have practically all the control in the world.

by ThundaPC on Sep 26, 2008 10:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The control to make any suggestion he wants to Chuck Armstrong?

by JLC on Sep 26, 2008 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the Baker article

“The good news is that they care and they’re passionate about it,” Armstrong said. “So, we’re the two guys left at the top, and if they want to take shots, we’re the best targets.”

Lincoln said that he and Armstrong have tried to be more open with fans through the media.

“I know that there are lots of disgruntled fans who would like to string Chuck up, me too,” Lincoln said. “We’re terribly disappointed and frustrated by what’s happened this season. And really, on behalf of the ownership group, the management, the coaches, the front office, whatever, I want our fans to know that we apologize, we sincerely apologize to every one of them for what they have had to endure this very disappointing season.”

Oh cry me a river and fuck the hell off, Lincoln.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 27, 2008 4:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

JUST SHUT THE HELL UP HOWARD!!!!

Seriously. I’m tired of “I’m SORRY!”

Apology NOT accepted.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 27, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As if anyone needed any other reason to understand why Chuck and Howie are bad for this team

Armstrong insists he isn’t wedded to any one style and that a heavier use of statistical analysis will not necessarily be required. He points out that Bavasi convinced Lincoln and him to sign pitcher Carlos Silva and trade for pitcher Erik Bedard by using analyses by Mariners statistical adviser Mat Olkin to show what the moves would mean in wins and losses.

“If it had proven to be accurate, we would not be in last place,” Armstrong said. “We would at least be in second place.”

From Article #5 in Baker’s Times series

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 28, 2008 10:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

And we're fucked.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Although I love how Baker seems to insinuate that Bedard and Silva were "sabermetric-approved" baseball decisions.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's more Armstrong insinuating that than Baker.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Sep 28, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh fuck both of them.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can get behind this.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Sep 28, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm done being nice to Geoff.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bedard was sabermetric-approved

Trading five players for Bedard was not anybody-smart approved

by seattlebruin on Sep 29, 2008 7:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trading the five players we traded...

I would’ve pulled a PI Forum trade of Willie B., Rob Johnson, Wlad Balentien, Ryan Feierabend and Tug Hulett for Bedard.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 29, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What statistical analysis could Mat Olkin have used to justify Carlos Silva?

If anything, wouldn’t the numbers say Hell no don’t give this guy $48 million?

by Gomez on Sep 28, 2008 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It probably worked out like this

Bill Bavasi: Hey here are three pitchers (A, B, Silva). Who’s the best?
Mat: Silva.
Bill: Okay.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm.

If Mat Olkin statistically showed that the M’s needed Silva (without him being FORCED to show that, as any statistician might skew results when motivated) then he should be fired and tarred and feathered in the saber community. I’m guessing that they more likely interpreted his numbers waaaay wrong or something.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 28, 2008 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's how I'm reading it

He points out that Bavasi convinced Lincoln and him to sign pitcher Carlos Silva and trade for pitcher Erik Bedard by using analyses by Mariners statistical adviser Mat Olkin to show what the moves would mean in wins and losses.

Olkin: Starting from last year’s rotation, Carlos Silva would probably add one to three wins.
Bavasi: 88 + 3 = 91!
Olkin: Well I wouldn’t-
Bavasi: 91 wins!

by Jeff on Sep 29, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect that's pretty much the level of analysis.

Olkin likely did supply data showing that Silva would be an improvement over last years rotation. He may have even had the data to show that Silva was the best remaining option, particularly factoring in durability. I don’t think it likely that Olkin contributed on the fiscal analysis.

Bavasi essentially asked “who is the best remaining free agent pitcher?” When Olkin said Silva, Bavasi determined what it would take to sign Silva, accepted that as the “market rate”, and presented the analysis to Lincoln and Armstrong. There’s no suggestion in there that numeric analysis was used to assess whether the money spent to sign Silva was the optimum use of the money.

That was the typical Mariners thinking mode under Bavasi: we need to fill a spot. Who are the players who can fill the spot? Which are the best ones? What will it take to sign one of those guys? Do we have the money?

We saw that with Vidro. We need a #2 hitter. Who can fill that role? How about Jose Vidro? We can have him if we pay most of his salary and kick in a couple of minor leaguers who don’t fit into our plans Great!! Done!!! With inadequate consideration as to how using a DH to fill the “#2 hittter” role impacts the rest of the team offensive

by Steve Nelson on Sep 29, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

That says more about how bad Bavasi was for the team than Howie/Chuck

If anything, that tells us that Howie/Chuck are more likely to believe whatever idea the GM sells them on.

by ThundaPC on Sep 28, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm somewhat encouraged by the whole "Color, gender blind" thing.

It sounds like they’re going to make a good decision for all the wrong reasons.

by BrianL on Sep 28, 2008 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ignoring the rest of the issues with the team.

There’s more than pitching that failed this year, and was barely adequate this year. Either Armstrong doesn’t even understand how many holes he has in his team, or the interviewer is only focusing on the pitching in his questions. From Armstrong’s reply, sounds like he thought Silva/Bedard would be the only fix he needed. BrianL I like your assessment, works for me.

"Sorry I hit you in the helmet Hank, I meant to hit you in the neck." Stan Williams to Hank Aaron.

by dpseadv on Sep 28, 2008 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs