FanPost

WPA => WCPA

Random thought while I was watching the Twins vs. Soxs game. 

We have WPA which tells us how much of each victory or loss can be credited to a player for his actions.  This is easy.

We also have ways to predict the chance of making the playoffs and winning the world series based on a team's current record (as well as some info about ability).  There many different ways to do this and usually they give similar answers.  We can use these projections to figure out what each game is valued by considering each win to have a "change in % chance at winning the WS".

It would be cool to combine the two.  Each player's goal is to win the world series.  WCPA (World Champion Probability Added) would be much like WPA but have even more context wrapped up in it.  Would be less "useful" but I think pretty interesting.

All of the M's recent games would have no value in their quest for the WS since we don't have a chance.  At some point early on in the season we did and some players would accumulate some WCPA but most would go to teams that have a chance at the WS.

Not only would WCPA tell us which players were "clutch" with well timed hits in games.  WCPA would tell us which players were "clutch" with well timed hits in games that matter.

I just thought the idea was a little cool.  I will never try to implement it cause it seems hard and more time consuming which means maybe its not such a good idea.  Anyway, stop watching the mariners guys and start watching baseball that matters for the rest of the season.

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