Close the Book on Felix

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 4:41 PM PDT in Game Recaps Comment 37 comments

2008 is done for Felix Hernandez and here's a quick rundown on what the year entailed:

THE BAD

Felix's tRA+ dropped from 114 to 110, the worst mark of his career.
Felix threw strikes 1% less often in 2008 than in 2007.
Felix registered a called strike 17.1% of the time, the worst mark of his career.
Felix registered a swinging strike 8.6% of the time, the worst mark of his career.
Of balls put in play, 50.7% were on the ground, the worst mark of his career and just under nine points lower than it was previously.
19% of balls in play were of a line drive type, the worst mark of his career.
Felix struck out 20.42% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career.
Felix walked 9.34% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career.
Felix hit 0.93% of all batters that he faced, the worst mark of his career.

THE GOOD

A really awsome grandslam off Johan Santana.
His home runs allowed per ball in air regressed to normal.
His batting average on balls in play regressed to normal.
No arm injuries.

Felix's year boiled down to his bad luck going away and him responding to that due fortune by regressing in just about every conceivable way. It's almost unfathomable how much of a step back this season is on a trend line. Don't get me wrong, these aren't career troubling regressions for the most part. The problem is that they arrest Felix's ascension. They are the most recent data points and thus have to be weighed the most heavily and suddenly when 2006-8 is viewed, you get a picture of a mostly horizontal slope rather than the upwards movement you would hope from a prospect. Perhaps pictures would make this easier to see:


Our hopes	Current state

That's not to say Felix hasn't been a good pitcher this year; he has. And it's not to say that he cannot resume that climb in 2009; he can. It is to say that his future looks less bright now than it did six months ago. And that sucks.

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This season sucks.

by Mariner Melee on Sep 25, 2008 4:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Couldn't you just tell me my cat died or something?

We know his curve hasn’t been the same, and he throws too many fastballs. But do you see a reason for the rest of the regression?

I'm back to liking midgets too much.

by Thingray on Sep 25, 2008 4:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

We'll be looking into pitch F/X extensively come winter.

We’ll see if anything shows up there.

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am hoping for an Ervin Santana style career correction

by Sec 108 on Sep 25, 2008 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

These are the times that I would kill to have reporters who reported useful shit

I would sincerely like to know what Stottlemyre and Charlton told Felix, and what, if anything, they’ve changed.

This is such an aberration that it goes beyond the whole ‘establish the fastball nonsense.’ Has their obsession with speed led them to change Felix’s 2-seam grip (I don’t know how you’d do this w/o making it a 4 seam grip, but whatever)? Is this pitch calling, or is this an adjustment the league’s made on the guy?

Felix has too much talent to stagnate – someone on this team is actively fighting against Felix’s talent. I’m sure of it. I just don’t know who.

There are times when pitching coaches just don’t matter very much, and times when they do. I’m starting to think ours is waaaay worse than replacement level and that Felix would add .10 to his 2009 tRA if the pitching coaches are replaced with bottles of Jarritos.

by marc w on Sep 25, 2008 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

If I remember correctly, if you bury the two-seamer deeper into your hand

you get less velocity and more movement (which I’m pretty sure would generally equal more GB in Felix’ case).

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Sep 25, 2008 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That non-stop orgasm would probably isn't as good as it looks on paper anyway.

9=8

by JI on Sep 25, 2008 5:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It'd be tough to go out in public

by mariners124m on Sep 25, 2008 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He did hit 200 innings.

by Slurvey on Sep 25, 2008 5:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

His % of PA ending in a swinging strikeout stayed constant

Thats good.

by Edgar for Pres on Sep 25, 2008 5:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Felix had trouble focusing this year on the account that he wanted to knock out Ichiro.

by ThundaPC on Sep 25, 2008 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Saw the grandslam live

We only had like 5 good moments this season. Happy I got to see one of them. Still a shame how he pitched most of this year.

by phil333 on Sep 25, 2008 6:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He leads MLB with a 4.000 Slg. %

Minimum plate appearances notwithstanding.

"When I'm a evaluating a player the first three things I look at are: Character, character, and character."
-Charles Armstrong esq.

by Big Jared on Sep 25, 2008 6:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've said it before, and will say it again...

Felix = overrated.

There, I said it.

I’m not saying he’s “bad” or that he’s not going to develop into an “ace” (he’s not there yet, and I’m still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt). But I will say that I’m all the more concerned, after this season, that he’s not ever going to become the über-stud that he had the potential to become. He’ll still go one to have a fine and solidly above-average, if not even pretty damn good career. But I just don’t see him developing into the HOF-level player that was projected for him when he was annointed “King.” Too much Freddy Garcia and not enough Pedro Martinez.

I’ve seen glimpses, certainly, and because of those glimpses, I still have hope for his future. But I’m back to being waaaaaaaaay more skeptical than I was even last year when I complained about him then. I’m patient enough to still appreciate his talent and what he still yet might become, but he’s been around long enough to give me some serious doubts, too.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 25, 2008 6:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Felix isn't overrated.

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Felix is overrated

Felix’s talent isn’t

by Jeff on Sep 25, 2008 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we have a pretty firm grasp on Felix's current level.

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We do, most don't

by Jeff on Sep 25, 2008 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but who's overrating him?

The national press? They largely ignore him because he plays for a shitty team.
The local press? I haven’t seen that.
Us? Clearly not.

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps I should say this:

until pretty recently Felix was overrated.

by Jeff on Sep 25, 2008 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Until pretty recently?

Please expound. Are you suggesting the Felix Day et all hype is what has made him overrated?

by dnc on Sep 25, 2008 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think we're all guilty of having expected too much from Felix in the short-term once it became clear that he was not fully developed

by Jeff on Sep 26, 2008 12:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Felix is a few adjustments from realizing his awesome potential

He just needs to get with it and make those adjustments.

by Gomez on Sep 25, 2008 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally disagree

Nothing about his accomplishments at his age says anything but superstar. What’s overrated? His stuff? Nope. His results? Nope. His potential? Nope.

I just don’t see it man. What were you expecting from the kid? He’s already developed into an ace, in case you haven’t noticed. It’s arguable that this season wasn’t ace-like, but his last two absolutely were. I suppose you could say that he’s regressed from an ace, but your suggestion that he hasn’t reached that status in his career is just flat out wrong.

He had a down year. And he was still very good.

Go count the pitchers who have been better than Felix the past three years and tell me he’s not an ace.

by dnc on Sep 25, 2008 8:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, for one thing...

He’s been pretty terrible vs. Anaheim and Texas, for the most part, throughout his career. He’s had some good games against good offenses (Game #2, 2007, in Boston, for example), but for the most part he has massive problems facing teams whose offenses are strong.

I don’t hate him, certainly, and I think he’s the best pitcher the M’s have had since RJ. He’s certainly got time on his side, and I still think he’s a good pitcher. And that he’s still got a pretty good chance at having a pretty awesome career.

I know I disagree with pretty much everyone here. It’s something I’ve lived with for awhile. But with all the hype surrounding him since pretty much forever, he’s still got a ways to go to live up to it. That’s all I’m saying, and why I think WE are overrating him.

He needs to develop his brain to catch up to his talent. He’s had three full seasons to make those adjustments that he needs to make, and in my mind he took a pretty big step backwards by not moving forward. He seems to be making the same mistakes and not really learning from them — especially against tough offenses. You can point fingers at pitching coaches and to the organization’s terrible pitching philosophies, I suppose, but if he was truly the über-talent that he was hyped to be, he’d push past that as a professional. Yes, he’s still young, and still had a pretty damn fine career considering his age especially. No doubt the talent’s there, too. But he has to learn how to harness it, and he’s got a ways to go there. I’m tired of using “He’s still young yet…” as an excuse. He’s been around for three full seasons now, and still has a lot more room yet. He’ll get there, probably, but I’ve just seen more Freddy Garcia than Pedro Martinez so far.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 25, 2008 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One he develops some consistency against left handed batters he's going to be unbeatable.

..and he’s still ahead of where most hall of famers his age were

9=8

by JI on Sep 25, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude

I’m not using he’s still young as an excuse. I’m saying that despite his youth he was a full blown ace in 06 and 07, and while he took a step back this year he was still what most would consider a very good #2.

Like I said, the list of pitchers who have been better than Felix has the past three years is very short, youth or no youth. Using xFIP (I’m not as familiar with tRA – if there’s a glaring difference between the two that tRA overlooks please let me know) Felix was second in the AL in 06, second again in 07, and this year he dropped all the way down to 9th.

That’s a borderlne Cy Young guy for two years, and a solid “ace” the third year. Pretty hard to be “overrated” when you’re easily a top 5 pitcher in your league over the past three seasons. And yeah, he’s already fully on a HOF path, he doesn’t need to “develop into” anything to be that kind of pitcher. He already is. He just needs to keep it up and stay healthy.

I think you’re just being a contrarian for contrarianisms sake, here.

by dnc on Sep 25, 2008 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

xFIP doesn't account for batted ball types other than to regress HR/FB rate.

Use tRA. It’s better.

by Matthew on Sep 25, 2008 11:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't account for gb/fb?

For some reason I thought it did?

by dnc on Sep 26, 2008 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a contrarian, a skeptic.

That’s all I’m saying.

He won me over after Opening Day last year, sealed by his Boston start. Previously, I’d been a huge skeptic. After those two starts, I stopped being skeptical. After this season, however, I’m back to being skeptical of his development track. Looking at the metrics Matthew posted above, I see signs that instead of making the progress we all assumed he’d make, he took some steps backwards. That raised some red flags — along with all the talk about his + curveball disappearing (possibly because of his injuries) — and I’m back to being more skeptical.

If you look at his more traditional stats (ERA+, HR allowed, etc.,) he actually made a little bit of progress. Maybe he needed to take a step backwards in order for his results to take a step forward. Fine, whatever. He’s still not to the level that the expectations were “enthroned” upon him. He’s a good pitcher, clearly, and I like his chances for becoming even better. I’m just, well, skeptical that he’ll remain healthy enough and become heady enough to take it to that gear that we all expect him to find one of these days. That’s all — skeptical. Concerned. Conservative. Whatever.

It was ingrained in me that Felix was going to come in and kick ass after getting time to adjust. I guess I expected more along the lines of what Tim Lincecum’s done out of the gates. It seems yet again after a third full season of Felix that we’re still waiting for him to make that “final” adjustment. To me – that day will arrive when he finally is able to mow through offenses like Texas’ and Anaheim’s and Boston’s a bit more consistently — not just dominate the cakewalk offenses.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 26, 2008 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skepticism is good.

I try to think this way whenever I find myself getting excited about young players, but I’m not very good at it.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Sep 26, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know you hate this argument, Paul, but remember that Felix is

2 years younger than Tim Lincecum, a year younger than David Price, 2.5 years younger than Cole Hamels, etc.

As frustrating as the development arc is above, we all need to remember that a ‘typical’ career arc isn’t a perfectly straight, upwards pointing line on a graph. We should have expected bumps in the road… we didn’t expect them because Felix has been so god damn beautiful for 2 plus years, but we still should’ve expected the occasional season in which he was merely excellent as opposed to truly elite.

I’ve said it before, if he plateaus here for 5-6 years, sure, then we’ll know.
For context, Randy Johnson’s age-22 season was spent in the Florida State League, where he walked over 7 per 9.

by marc w on Sep 26, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not only that, but Timmy

a) Pitches in the National League, and b) Pitches in the National League West.

Now, I love Lincecum, and think we were morons for passing on him, but you can’t rag Felix for not getting it done Texas and Anaheim and Boston and then compare him to a guy who faces consistently inferior offenses to those Felix does. It’s not at all a fair comparison.

by dnc on Sep 26, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ahem, that should read "done against Texas and Anaheim," etc...

Why don’t I proofread?

by dnc on Sep 26, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not comparing him to Lincecum.

They’re different pitchers, and yeah, pitch in different leagues.

All I’m saying is that people said Felix would come in and be a perpetual Cy Young level player after only a bit of adjustment. Hence the “King” moniker. Sorta like what Tim Lincecum did this year — and that’s as far as I’m taking the comparison. It’s been three full years and that hasn’t happened. I’m not saying it’s out of the question for him to still develop into that type of pitcher — in fact I’d say it’s very likely he will. Indeed he’s young and still has room to grow. He’s shown signs of fulfilling those expectations, but he hasn’t reached them yet. He made some strides forward that these stats don’t show — pitching 200 innings without having too many “bad” outings, especially in a season as pathetic as the Mariners had. Showed signs of maturity in that regard, too.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Sep 30, 2008 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Before you all go to jump off the nearest bridge:

Pedro didn’t really break out until his fourth season starting (and he had a full year in the pen before that), and he was older than Felix then. If Felix could get a full year of pitching in instead of trying to recover from injuries (die in a fire Carlos Beltran), he’ll finally be able to get his best stuff back and resume his ascent to the throne. Besides, even if we don’t get Pedro Martinez, I’m fine with Brandon Webb or Roy Halladay.

by Crystal for DH on Sep 25, 2008 7:55 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs