First 3 Overall Picks

I don't know about everyone here, but I'm a visual guy and it helps me to understand data when its organized as more than just numbers. With that in mind, I undertook a fairly unscientific study of the 30 drafts between 1978 and 2007. The results are as follows:

A few quick notes:

-Naturally there might be some debate over who was the best player (this is all in retrospect by the way), an example being, say, Troy Glaus vs J.D. Drew of Pat Burrell vs Mark Mulder. Overall I think its fairly consistent and if someone injured themselves or didn't play for some reason I counted it against them (otherwise Hamilton vs Beckett would be a lot murkier). I didn't use a specific formula to determine the best careers, but I don't think there would be any major argument with the decisions as a whole.

-We all know the problems with All-Star balloting, but, whatever, I think its interesting to see.

-I didn't include 2008 because its too quick to judge, and obviously some of the more recent drafts will develop all-stars int he future and perhaps change who's the best player to come out of them.

With that, a couple quick conclusions/inferences:

-1st overall pick has definitely been better than 2nd, though not by a huge margin. It really drops off after that. Obviously a larger sample size, and maybe more draft poitions, would be better.

-Would anyone else have guessed that a 1st or 2nd overall pick over the last 30 years would have a 40% chance of being an All-Star? I would've guessed much lower.

-Given these are all very talented people and some just get unlucky, I'd expect the "Did not play in MLB" numbers to even out over the first three rounds with a large enough sample size.

-I'd guess there'll be less All-Stars from the top three positions as time goes on as competition for all-star spots increases from a) international signings and b) better talent evaluation / scouting turning out more all-stars from later picks.

Discuss?