Where The Heck Did That Come From?

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 2, 2008 11:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners News, Good

Okay, yeah, so Feierabend kind of got his ass kicked today. It's tough to pin 11 hits in 5.2 innings on plain old bad luck, and for the duration he did see pretty frequent solid contact. But then, this was the Rangers. The Rangers were purpose-built to destroy egos and hand-held scoreboard operators. They have an .862 team OPS at home, and hold a significant lead over second place in team runs scored. Against that lineup - against the regular lineup, really, sans Ian Kinsler - Feierabend missed 13 bats in 80 pitches. 13 bats, with 56 strikes overall.

I would've expected neither of those. The Rangers strike out a lot, yes, but Feierabend is hardly known for his strikeout stuff, so to miss that many bats while pounding the zone speaks to something going right, even when the balls in play were going wrong. That sort of thing doesn't just happen by accident. Just as Feierabend was sometimes allowing the Rangers to make solid contact, other times he was doing something to make them swing right through the ball.

The more I see of him, the more I find myself interested in his changeup. I'm kind of biased, because I love guys with a good change, but Feierabend's always been reputed to have a particularly strong one, and so far he's lived up to his billing. He threw 18 of them today, generating five swinging strikes against just four balls. What I like most about it is that it's disguised so well in his fastball - the PITCHf/x movements on his fastball and changeup are strikingly similar, but their speeds are 10mph apart, which I have to imagine makes it difficult for the hitter to pick up on which pitch is coming. Maybe this is why he's been able to get this far despite velocities that make Jose Rosado feel brawny. When it's difficult to identify one of the two pitches, it's difficult to identify both.

It's a heck of a straight change, and after today, the sort of thing that makes me wonder if perhaps I've written Feierabend off too quickly. Maybe he has something to contribute to this team after all. I'm obviously still skeptical, and I'm not about to throw him a parade, but considering Jarrod Washburn hasn't missed 13 bats in a start since August 2006 and Carlos Silva hasn't done it since ever, I'm willing to grant him a longer leash. 11 hits aside, today I think he earned it.

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Nice

That change actually is something of a weapon; a guy his age doesn’t have the kind of success in the PCL with smoke and mirrors.

Part of me thinks it’s great that the M’s develop so many of these change-up artists to fill out the back end of an MLB rotation, and part of me just despairs that they’ve added the likes of Carlos Silva in spite of it. When Feier’s 26, he’ll be a half-decent #4/5 starter. God knows it probably won’t be here.

RRS>Feierabend>Washburn>Silva.

by marc w on Sep 2, 2008 11:59 PM PDT reply actions

Left-handed guy with changeup = Jamie Moyer

seems like the M’s have invested a lot of time, money, and energy into finding the next, better Jamie Moyer, albeit with limited results. Kind of seems to fit their frustrating “organizational roles” philosophy though.

by seattlebruin on Sep 3, 2008 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions

Eh, until he repeats something like this I'm more inclined to think it was an anomaly

Because this certainly isn’t close to what he usually does.

by OlSalty on Sep 3, 2008 2:29 AM PDT reply actions

That's where I still lean also.

He’s going to need Moyer-like command to get away with that BP FB. Heck even Moyer was prone to getting blown up……ahhhh crap. Nice post Seabruin. Don’t worry guys, I’ll get it myself-LATE!

He does have the good pickoff move, but most of his runners are already at second or have scored via the HR. :) He’s still better than watching Silva about half the time.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 3, 2008 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Well with Silva, you pretty much know what you're going to get

5-6 innings of suck, then it’s Sean Green time.

With Feierabend, as long as that change is a legit MLB out pitch, he’s at least marginally interesting as a BOR guy. Being left-handed never hurts, either.

by seattlebruin on Sep 3, 2008 7:30 AM PDT up reply actions

It's a sign of a potential asset, though

Soft tossers don’t miss bats very often.

by Gomez on Sep 3, 2008 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions

And I'm inclined to agree with you

but to even be capable of this sort of anomaly says something about what Feierabend brings to the table.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 3, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions

What was his pitch fx velocity yesterday?

The fangraphs average is lower than I’d have thought, but I’m still not sure about trusting it, given how much Ryan’s velo has bounced around from start to start.

by marc w on Sep 3, 2008 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions

A touch above 87 on his fastball

If he didn’t throw such a good straight change I’m not sure he would’ve ever made it out of AA.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 3, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Strange

He was at 89 last year on the pitch fx cards, and he was at 90 quite frequently in Tacoma this year (pre-injury, however).
I’m shocked he’s missing bats if he’s also missing a foot on his FB.

by marc w on Sep 3, 2008 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Through four starts he's clocked in at 87.6mph

Only 5 of 192 heaters have come at 90 or above. But then, he’s not missing bats with his fastball – he’s missing them with his changeup and (shockingly) his breaking ball.

Pitch/Swinging strikes/Number of pitches

Fastball/8/192
Slider/6/40
Curveball/2/12
Change/13/97

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 3, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Thanks!

Could you tell me where you got this, or tell me how many pitches/SwStr that Cesar Jimenez gets? If both of these guys can get swinging strikes on their sliders, then they’ve got a much better chance….

by marc w on Sep 3, 2008 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions