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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

The Only Bad Thing About Wlad Is That He Hasn't Done Anything Right

Prior to the year, before, during, and after the whole Bedard trade ordeal, there were countless discussions over who was more ready to make a contribution in the Major Leagues - Adam Jones or Wladimir Balentien. With the M's in need of an everyday right fielder, the idea was to try and figure out whether or not trading Jones would do harm to a team being built to win in the immediate future. If Jones was more ready, then trading him would be bad, because we'd be left without a suitable replacement. If Wlad was more ready, then dealing Jones would be okay (at least, in the short term), because we wouldn't be losing anything for 2008.

Well, we don't need to re-spark old conversations. The things we talked about in December and January no longer mean anything in the present. But what has become blindingly obvious is that '08 Wladimir Balentien just wasn't ready for the big time.

It would be easy to look at his .196/.247/.338 batting line and conclude "well duh". In fact I could probably end this post right now and still get the message across. But it's worth going more in depth, just to get an idea of how much trouble Wlad has had adjusting to the highest level of competition in the world.

Thus far in his ~half season of Major League playing time, Wlad:

  • hasn't hit line drives
  • hasn't made much contact on balls in the zone
  • hasn't made much contact on balls out of the zone
  • hasn't hit for much power
  • hasn't shown a very good eye
  • hasn't hit fastballs very well
  • hasn't hit sliders
  • hasn't hit changeups
  • hasn't hit curveballs
  • hasn't hit miscellaneous other pitches
  • hasn't played good defense

Aside from getting a Major League paycheck and winning that one game in extras, Wlad hasn't really had anything to celebrate in his time with Seattle. It's been an out-and-out struggle since the day he arrived, and if he's beginning to get more comfortable, it's not showing itself anywhere in the results. He's just been a bad player. There's no other way around it. Despite a mammoth line in AAA, the Major League edition of Wladimir Balentien has been a really, really bad player.

Some of this isn't surprising. Wlad's never made great contact. He's never had a perfect eye. He's never played terrific defense. His flaws have been well documented for as long as he's been in the system, and while he's taken some big steps forward over the years, his basic profile has remained pretty steady. He's supposed to be a power-hitting outfielder who strikes out and plays enough defense to get by. The sort of guy you can expect to have difficulty with offspeed stuff when he first sets foot in the big leagues.

That I'm okay with. The same profile has worked for a million different players over the years, to varying degrees. I just wish that Wlad would start to show some more of his strengths rather than putting on display an endless stream of weaknesses. The whole strikeout thing only works if you draw some walks and hit the ball out of the yard, but Wlad hasn't done either of those things close to often enough to make up for his drawbacks. Hence the .196 batting average and .585 OPS.

If there's good news, it's that shit happens, and Wlad couldn't have chosen a better time to struggle through his transition phase. He's been bad, but the team's been bad, so nobody really cares as long as he's learning. The fact that he's looked like a big bag of stupid so far doesn't mean he'll be a shitty player going forward, and it in no way invalidates our evaluation of his ceiling. It just means he has a lot to work on before he gets there. Which - well, which I think all of us expected, even if we didn't anticipate his growing pains being quite this severe.

It's easy to be discouraged by Wlad's lack of progress. His time with the Mariners is just another thing that's gone wrong in this bubonic season of terror. But it's important to remember that, as bad as he's been, he still has more raw talent than the majority of the organization, and while God knows he hasn't flashed enough of it, lots of players took their time to start hitting, from Adam Jones to Alex Rodriguez. A bad three months as a rookie doesn't make a guy a bust. It makes him a project. In Wlad's case, a project with strong upside.

Try not to lose hope. While at this point it looks like we kept the wrong outfielder, Wlad nevertheless could and should be a solid everyday bat some distance down the road. It just appears as if that distance may be a little longer than we imagined before. But you know what? That's okay. Because when your team's committed to being a pile of crap for a few years, there's no sense in being impatient. Wlad, feel free to take all the time you need. Just as long as you're hitting by the next time we're relevant, I suppose that's good enough for me.

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Comments

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I think he is somewhat mis cast as a centerfielder.

It was thereupon decided that the world began in 1984.

by JI on Sep 18, 2008 10:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Still, look at the trend in his RZR in CF

The guy started awfully, with 3 in-zone plays not made in his first game, and few more early on. Since that time, he’s been great – statistically. He’s still missed a total of 6 in zone plays (and with a modest number of chances, that makes the RZR pretty bleh), but 17 OOZ plays. Yes, he’s no Adam Jones, but for a guy who hasn’t played there consistently since AA, he’s been fine.

That’s still not going to be his every day position, but it’s nice to know he isn’t a complete hack in CF.

by marc w on Sep 19, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe, but it's also stupid to DH Reed

and hurt out starting pitchers (not named Washburn or Silva)

It was thereupon decided that the world began in 1984.

by JI on Sep 19, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, that is kind of dumb

when the team has several other guys they can put there instead, like RAUL.

by Gomez on Sep 19, 2008 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know

We know one thing about Reed: he can field. We don’t yet know about his hitting ability.
We (thought) we knew that Wlad could hit; it was his fielding that was a huge question mark.

DH’ing Reed while playing Wlad is clearly NOT putting the team in the best position to win, but who cares about that? They need to use this time to gather information on players. DH’ing Reed and starting Wlad in the OF does this better than the alternative.

by marc w on Sep 19, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

We could always DH Raul

It was thereupon decided that the world began in 1984.

by JI on Sep 19, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

You could

And for whatever reason, the team seems loathe to do this (or to sit Raul, because really, he’s not a part of the future of this club).

If you’ve made that choice, then I can see the DH Reed thing. They may also want to see how Reed hits when it’s all he needs to concentrate on (early returns are not promising). Who knows. It’s clear though that putting Wlad/Reed/whomever in the best run-preventing alignment isn’t their main objective, and that’s fine for now.

by marc w on Sep 19, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Jones and Balentien

Wlad – 219 ABs, .196/.247/.338/.585
Adam – 217 ABs, .249/.289/.373/.662

Both of these guys struggled to start out their year in the majors. Adam hit .053 higher, but his isoPatience of .040 and isoPower of .123 compared to Wlad’s .051 and .142, respectively. Adam’s defense is clearly better as well, and with Ichiro back in right (!!!) that is even more germane than it was before. None of this is park-adjusted, of course… I honestly don’t know how much difference that make here.

If Wlad had 450 ABs this year, he probably would still have holes in his game. However, I bet he’d be hitting at a much better clip… his average never was as high as Jones’ but he did quite well regardless. He might even be outproducing Jones at this point in the year… I’d bet on Adam, but not by much.

My point? Suck to lose Jones, but Balentien may yet prove to be just as much an offensive asset (park-adjusted and not counting on equal batting averages for appearances’ sake) as Jones. He’s a slower learner to some extent, but he’s always had a lower average and the talent is still there. I’m willing to keep a sunny outlook for a while longer.

Visiting Mariners' fan

by KingCorran on Sep 18, 2008 11:44 PM PDT reply actions  

For what it's worth,

Jones was in his age 20 and 21 seasons for those at-bats, while Wlad did it in his age 23 season (and almost all in one season).

by Teej on Sep 19, 2008 3:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Very true.

Wlad is not a Jones like talent but there’s no reason to think he won’t progress into a productive if sometimes frustrating hitter. I think I’ll be happy with him hitting 6-7th come ’10.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Sep 19, 2008 6:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

If this were any other season I'd expect the team to dump him in

November and replace him with some sort of Brad Wilkerson comp. At least we (presumably) don’t have that to worry about.

by katal on Sep 19, 2008 6:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Too bad Wlad does not have 5th option

He may take the Wily Mo Pena career path from here, as they have similar skill sets and the problem of running out of options at a young age before they are ready to play everyday in the majors.

by G_ on Sep 19, 2008 9:45 AM PDT reply actions  

True.

Here’s hoping he instead takes the Elijah Dukes career path instead.

I used to think Wlad was Wily Mo Pena, but I still say that’s a pessimistic scenario for Wlad.

Wily Mo struck out in over 1/3 of his minor league ABs, while putting up an ISO of .182 and an OBP of .325.
Wlad’s struck out in less than 28% of his minor league ABs (and the trend line is going waay down), while putting up an ISO of .253 and an OBP of .345. He’s a better hitter in every conceivable way.

by marc w on Sep 19, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pena was in the majors after his age 20 season

Virtually all of Pena’s minor league stats come from his age 20 and younger seasons, so it is not really fair to compare them to Wlad’s minor league stats from his age 21 (AA) to 23 seasons (AAA).

At age 23 in MLB (335 PA), Pena hit 254/304/492, 238 ISOP, 21.4% LD, 6.0 BB, 37.3 K%
At age 24 in MLB (304 PA), Pena hit 301/349/489, 188 ISOP, 20.9% LD, 6.8 BB, 32.6 K%

At age 23 in MLB (236 PA), Balentien has hit 200/25/341, 141 ISOP, 14.2% LD, 6.4 BB, 33.2 K%

by G_ on Sep 19, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fine, then take Wlad's younger seasons

The most directly comparable is their age 19 season, where both played in the Midwest League.

Wlad went for .277/.315/.519 compared to Pena’s .264/.327/.485. In addition, Pena struck out in 35% of his ABs to Wlad’s 30%. More importantly, Wlad played in a home park that, according to 3 year park factors, both suppressed HRs AND inflated Ks (and walks, though that didn’t seem to help). Pena’s park in Dayton inflates HRs and suppressed HRs. Wlad’s numbers are better anyway, but in context, he’s clearly better.

At age 20, they went to different levels, so it’s hard to say, though it’s still worth pointing out that Wlad hit .291/.3338/.553 whereas Pena struggled – understandably – in AA.

Cut them both off at 20, and you still get the same picture – Wlad now looks much more like a hacker and someone who doesn’t walk (he learned, Pena didn’t), but Wlad’s power is clearly better.

by marc w on Sep 19, 2008 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

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