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A Thought

We all know that the Mariners wound up getting the better of the Griffey deal. While Cammy blossomed in Seattle, Griffey soon began to fight with injuries and he struggled to stay on the field. It was a trade I absolutely loathed at the time, but I look back on it today as one of the best moves the team's ever made. Despite being granted absolutely nothing in the way of leverage, the Mariners were somehow able to dump an icon and come away better because of it.

But was I right to loathe it at the time? Okay, yeah, there were personal reasons - Griffey was everyone's hero - but if you strip all that away, was there actually a reason to be upset with what the trade meant for the team on the field?

Between 1997-1999, Griffey was sustaining his offensive peak. He put up wOBAs of .410, .408, and .404, and stood as one of the most universally feared hitters in the league.

Between 1997-1999, Cammy was just getting his feet wet. He put up wOBAs of .360, .305, and .379, and stood as a guy with some speed, some pop, and a massive hole in his swing.

If you apply a basic 6/3/1 weighting, you get a .406 wOBA for Griffey in 2000, and a .355 wOBA for Cammy. That equates to a difference of about 30 runs over a full season (650 PAs). In other words, at the time of the trade, Griffey looked to be about 30 runs better than Cammy at the plate. Maybe 25 if you figured that Cammy would get better as he entered his peak, and maybe 35 if you figured that Cammy's lackluster 1998 was a concern. But somewhere around there. Offensively, Griffey was the better player by something on the order of ~3 wins.

But that's only half of the picture. According to UZR, Griffey was a -13 run (per season) center fielder between 2000-2003, whereas Cammy was a +23. Now, these figures only include post-trade playing time, but if you extrapolate them back, we can say with reasonable certainty that, at the time of the deal, Cammy was +20 < x < +30 in center, while Griffey was -15 < x < -5. We traded a below-average defensive center fielder and got back one of the elites. I don't know, maybe Griffey was more like a 0 at the time and his injuries unfairly skew the data since we couldn't know those were going to happen, but either way, Cammy was on another level. And just because people weren't really talking about defense back then doesn't mean its relevance was any less significant. According to the best measure we have, Cammy's defense was so good that it negated just about all of Griffey's offensive advantage.

Think about that. At the time of the trade - when we had no choice but to give Griffey to the Reds in exchange for whatever they felt like offering - Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Cameron were roughly equivalent players. And while Griffey was 30 years old, Cammy was 27 and still under team control for three more years. Jim Bowden also gave us three other players, one of whom was a highly regarded young infielder and another of whom was a 27 year old #4 starter also under three more years of team control.

We didn't just rip off the Reds in retrospect. We ripped off the Reds at the time.

Mike Cameron's career is among the most underappreciated in recent baseball history.

0 recs  |  Comment 42 comments

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Comments

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And just to thinkk...

We settled for Cameron didn’t we? Didn’t the Reds turn down our initial request for Pokey Reese?

by coasty141 on Sep 11, 2008 2:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Speed ages well

it’s not a surprise.

by JI on Sep 11, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good for him.

 If the world were fair, he would play in a high school stadium for the rest of his career to make up for all that time spent hitting warning-track shots at Petco and Safeco.

I thought the Cameron signing was a great move by the Brewers, but I didn’t expect him to slug over .500. The combination of Cammy’s defense, his power, and the removal of Ryan Braun from third base have been incredibly valuable. (Obviously a healthy Sheets and a dominant Sabathia help a ton, too.)

I know it’s dumb to judge GMs on one or two moves, but my jaw hit the floor when Towers let Cameron go.

by Teej on Sep 11, 2008 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

‘If the world were fair, he would play in a high school stadium for the rest of his career to make up for all that time spent hitting warning-track shots at Petco and Safeco.’

Funny, that’s how I see Beltre after his time with LA and Seattle.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 12, 2008 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And didn't hit enough home runs to show for it.

Players who strike out that much need to hit over 30 home runs every year.

by Double06 on Sep 11, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

//15-year-old self's opinion.

Seriously, I wish I could have appreciated Cammy when he was here. I resented him so much because he wasn’t Griffey, who is and probably will be my all time favorite player ever. When we non-tendered him, I didn’t think anything of it and thought it was actually a pretty smart move. Now looking back at it all and having to settle for some serious god-awful defense since he left, what I wouldn’t give for a totally awesome outfield defense. It’s a ton of fun to watch out of center field and I just wish I knew that back then. Ichiro’s great out in center and all, but he was no Cammy.

When it’s all said and done, Cammy might just have a better career than half the Hall of Famers and nobody will ever appreciate him for it. Hell, he’s never even made $10 million in a year. I just hope that he himself truly appreciates the caliber of player he was.

by Double06 on Sep 11, 2008 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I talked to him at ST once when he was a Padre

and said that people in Seattle didn’t know what they had lost out on when he left, and all he did was shake his head and smile. I’m pretty sure he knows.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 11, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I have a lot of regret, too.

I was in college and wasn’t paying very close attention, but he was just the .240-hitting bum who couldn’t hold Griffey’s jock.

I was dumb. Sorry, Mike.

by Teej on Sep 11, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Should he be in the discussion for the Hall of Fame?

I know he won’t get in, but if we factor in defense, is he worthy? (I honestly have no idea. I suck mightily at HOF evaluation.)

240 homers while playing in some massive parks, probably the best defensive center fielder of his generation . . .

by Teej on Sep 11, 2008 3:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He doesn't have the case Edmonds or Williams does

In fact Edmonds is one of the all time greats he he won’t get it because fuck non-counting stats

by JI on Sep 11, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He won't even get consideration.

Although as probably my all-time favorite Mariner, I really wish he would.

I'm back to liking midgets too much.

by Thingray on Sep 11, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Besides getting screwed by park factors,

it’s also a shame he had that collision with Beltran that cost him some playing time. I was worried he’d have vision problems when/if he came back from that, but he seems to be fine.

I'm back to liking midgets too much.

by Thingray on Sep 11, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even with the typo, that earns a rec.

I'm back to liking midgets too much.

by Thingray on Sep 11, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Sep 11, 2008 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mike Cameron is my all-time favorite Mariner, and I thank you for this post.

If there was any justice in the world, Safeco would have been built backwards and he’d be closing in on 500 HRs.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Sep 11, 2008 5:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The home/away splits

for Cammy were pretty awful as a Mariner. I feel bad that he had to play his home games in Seattle. If you took his 2001 road stats and extended them over 162 games, he’d look like an absolute stud offensively, and already was defensively.

by JonBBT on Sep 11, 2008 6:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Cameron is a big reason why people forgave Griffey for limiting the trade to Cincinnati.

I know I did. I will be forever grateful for the man and player Cameron was during his time in Seattle.

by Wilder. on Sep 11, 2008 7:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I still hope Chris Young ends up becoming something similar.

He certainly took steps towards it defensively this year.

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.277/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Sep 11, 2008 8:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll repeat the sentiment

that if Cammy had played for the BoSox, he’d be getting MVP consideration. I love imagining him lofting flyballs to/off/over the monster.

In fact, it’s what I used to do ‘01-’03 during home games. Right before he’d strike out and Fairly would snicker at him for it.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Sep 11, 2008 8:38 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This is off topic and I know everyone hates rosterbation, buuut

I keep hearing people talk about adding some high OBP lefty sluggers for 1B/DH/LF like its really easy. If its so easy, why haven’t we completed this task already. We’ve needed the same thing for years now. Everyone points to Cust as the type we need to find, well, who’s the next Cust? If its so easy, lets hear some names of people the m’s could actually acquire to fill these holes (yes, Ibanez to DH).
I’ve seen Baldelli’s name thrown out there, but on the TB game the other night it sounded like they were ‘excited to have him healthy again and are looking forward to next year’. I don’t know enough about other teams minor league systems to say who could be had for a trade, anyone you guys are watching around the league?

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 12, 2008 10:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I am like a thread/poster 'un-super hero'

I have the power to kill a thread with a single post.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 12, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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