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Hey Felix, Do Better

Maybe all of our previous suggestions were too complicated. If that's the case, then listen up: do better. Do better at pitching. It's all we want.

We're all familiar with the potential. We all know what Felix is capable of, and we all understand the true significance of Felix Days, even - or perhaps especially - in the midst of a team-wide collapse. Morrow's debut aside, Felix is the shiniest beacon of hope in the entire organization. He is the Big Unit to the Mariners' Mac Suzuki. The Paris to the Mariners' Hartford. The Duvel to the Mariners' can of Pabst rolling around in the glove compartment of a stock VW sedan participating in the Baja 1000. He is the player dubbed The King, and the player upon whom we have heaped extraordinary expectations only because we think he deserves them.

That's one side. The obvious side. The fun side. The other side looks at Felix up and down, takes a step back, looks at him again, and comes away a little annoyed, because the other side is the acknowledgment that, as good as Felix is, he ought to be so much better.

The fact of the matter is that, while Felix possesses an incredible assortment of weapons, he still isn't all that good at using them. He does have a mediocre fastball. He does throw it too often. He does frequently struggle with command. He does miss the breaking balls he used to throw in '05. He is still a little immature. These are all issues of his, and where we figured many of them would gradually go away with the passing of time, they still feel every bit as prevalent as ever. Let's face it: while we all envisioned Felix posting ERAs around or below his current 3.41, he hasn't earned it. His 110 tRA+ is the same as it was last year and the same as it was the year before. He's been a good pitcher, but only infrequently a great one, and as often as I remind myself that he's still young and gifted, I'll be perfectly honest - every so often I just get sick of waiting. Sick of waiting for him to take The Leap. Because sometimes I can't shake the feeling that, if he were going to Leap, he'd have done it by now.

I know it's a little irrational. Felix is plenty young and the least of this team's problems. If we had five of him - or eleven of him, or twenty-five of him provided we only face Johan Santana - we'd be sitting prettier than anyone else in the league. But I see games like tonight, where he can't hit a spot to save his life and still manages to get 87% groundballs, and I see the upside, and I wonder to myself why he can't just put everything together already and turn into the overpowering lawnmower he's supposed to be. And then I wonder to myself how I'll respond down the road if this is as good as Felix is ever going to get. And then I shiver, because my what a horrible thought.

But it's a thought we have to consider now. A thought we didn't think we'd have to consider a few years ago when Felix first came up, but a thought from which at the moment there's no easy escape. Why are you doing this to me, Felix? I've tried my hardest to keep the faith while many around me have examined you with wary eyebrows, but while I still love you more than waffles and freedom, you have undeniably introduced a shred or two of doubt where there was no doubt before. I don't want you to let me think that this could be it. Not even for a second. But what am I supposed to do? How am I supposed to interpret and relay your disappointing lack of significant progress? At some point you have to take the initiative and step up your game. Even the hardiest, most steadfast of supporters will eventually need a little proof if you want them to stick around.

I still believe in you, Felix. But with every passing start like this, I believe in you a little less than I did the week before. Which can only mean one thing. The ball's in your court.

Do better.

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I pray to the baseball gods every day that Felix doesn't end up being the shining example of why

you’re smarter to put your hopes hitting prospects. TINSTAAPP and all that.

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.277/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Sep 10, 2008 2:20 AM PDT reply actions  

I honestly can't even get up for Felix Days anymore.

I would have watched him today, but I wanted to watch the end of the Rays game. By the time that game was over, I could tell by the thread that it was already a mess and there was just no reason to tune in.

Of course, the team’s overall shittiness plays a big part in my indifference, but Felix isn’t helping. I just don’t have the confidence in him that I did six months ago. It’s a horrible, horrible feeling, because as much as I like Beltre and some of the younger guys like Clement, Felix is far and away my favorite player on this team. If he’s sucking, I’m completely lost.

I just pray that he’s as bored with the Mariners as we are and this will all go away come spring and he’ll get a new pitching coach that stresses pitch variety and he’ll go on to win three or four Cy Youngs. It’s becoming more and more apparent that my expectations are probably too high, but I have to have something. I have to have a reason to watch this team. And he’s pretty much it.

by Teej on Sep 10, 2008 2:25 AM PDT reply actions  

I know what you mean. Today, instead of watching Felix, I played cards with some friends.

I remember a time when nothing short of required commitments(like work) would of gotten in the way of me watching Felix pitch. Now if I can find something else mildly interesting to do, I’ll do that instead.

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.277/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Sep 10, 2008 3:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

In all honesty

I have felt like this:

Because sometimes I can’t shake the feeling that, if he were going to Leap, he’d have done it by now.

for about a year now. I desperately want him to be The King; I’m just not sure he’s there. Or will be there. Doesn’t mean I want him to fail, or if he steps up next year that I won’t be thrilled, I just won’t be at all surprised if he doesn’t.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 7:01 AM PDT reply actions  

I had the same thought as I was turning of the game in the top of the 2nd.

I still hope he can get there and keep reminding myself that he’s only 22. Then I remember his fastball is fast but not special, and his breaking pitches aren’t what they used to be. Then I read “His 110 tRA+ is the same as it was last year and the same as it was the year before.” which shows that he isn’t improving. As good as Felix is, his lack of improvement is one of the biggest disappointments of this season.

Be open minded about what you don't know.

by Jed MC on Sep 10, 2008 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Remember when he shut out Oakland for eight innings and then one-hit Boston in back to back starts?

I hate to say it (because it’s probably not true) but there’s some part of me that wonders if that injury just set his development back a little (especially on his curve)

by seattlebruin on Sep 10, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

I dunno, I know you mentioned

that he is young, but he is still only 22. He’s a couple months older than Phil Hughes. He’s younger than Buchholz. He’s about a month older than Homer Bailey. He’s younger than David Price.

As for whether he should have taken a great leap forward by now, look at CC Sabathia. Like Feliz he was in the majors at a very young age. By age 20, he was pitching 180 innings in MLB. He improved somewhat notably at age 24, then made a great leap forward at age 25.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 7:38 AM PDT reply actions  

* shrug *

Some guys do that; doesn’t mean that if a guy seemingly isn’t improving, he won’t (take a leap forward).

Now obviously Felix is (much) better and has a (much) higher upside, but this situation reminds me to a certain of Mike Pelfrey. At the start, and early part of the season, pretty much every Met fan, including me, and lots of prospect watchers, analysts, etc had written him off as a bust, crap. It seemed as if he would never develope any breaking pitches, any complementary pitches to his 2 seam sinking fastball. It seemed that the only guys who still believed in him were the Mets FO. Then, he seemingly miraculously blossomed during the season. No great leap forward, but a notable improvement, in peripherals, and his pitches: his slider improved, he started throwing more 4 seamers.

I guess my (long winded) point is that, Felix is a 22 year old who’s already pretty good, has generally managed to stay injury free, and has great stuff. What’s not to like?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's not that I don't like Felix or his upside

But the Pelfrey comp is what I worry about. Yes, we all know Felix has a much higher upside, but what if he never realizes it? I don’t think I’d ever classify Felix as a “bust”, nor do I want him run out of town on a rail, but what if what we see is what we get, Felix-wise? Does that qualify as a disappointment, or should we be happy with the glimpses of genius that we got?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, my point with both Sabathia and Pelfrey

is it’s too early to start considering what if he never improves.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

too soon, not too early.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think there's a difference between saying

“it’s too early to start considering what if he never improves” and saying “it’s too early to think he’ll never improve.”

We have to consider the possibility that he never becomes what we’ve expected. You can’t assume greatness. God knows we’ve tried, but Felix hasn’t exactly forced the issue.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

But my counterpoint to that is

when is it not too soon? I’m not desperate to give up on him, don’t get me wrong, but when does the reality of Felix overwhelm the promise of Felix?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes.

And you may get him next April. But the reality of Felix will overwhelm the promise of Felix only after he’s 26, and even that’s debatable.

by marc w on Sep 10, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I hate unfulfilled expectations.

My entire life as a sports fan consists of nothing but unfulfilled expectations. I want my expectations fulfilled. At least once. >:(

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's my curse as well.

Be thankful you’re not/weren’t a Sonics fan.

I’ve got basically nothing to show for several decades of support for a broad array of teams, spread across continents.

You’re not alone, Jeff.

by marc w on Sep 10, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm a Sonics fan.

Thanks for reminding. :(

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

What's not to like is that for three years he's been no better than Gil Meche

You can’t come up in 2005 and do what Felix did and then go on to play like Gil Meche. Felix is the icon, and I imagine an awful lot of us are going to be disappointed if he doesn’t come around to pitching like it.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

What measure are you using to say that he's not been better

than Meche after 2005?

And one can say the same of Matt Cain then.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

His age was very apparent last night.

After the ‘double’ by Byrd, and the missed play at third (off Tui’s glove) his body language was terrible. Not that I blame him, a competant LF makes that play and Beltre normally snags that laser.
But he let it get to him, and that’s not what professionals are supposed to do. Give this guy a defense and some hope for offense and I think he makes that leap. But, he doesn’t do real well when he has to supply ‘the whole victory’. He did it last time out against Texas, and what did it get him; only the third 1-0 game in Texas history for a loss.

I feel bad for the guy, most times, but last night he looked like a whiny child with ZERO command. However, I did notice one thing different since the Morrow start that I think Felix picked up on. Everything was missing down last night, well, and off the plate, but that was the most pitches down I have seen from him in a while.

I have a cousin with 1 testicle, when they yell play ball, he smiles.

by Montucky on Sep 10, 2008 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is how I feel.

Felix still has a good amount of emotional work to do. It seems that when he gets in tight spots (when the game isn’t going his way), he loses his cool, and subsequently his command.

Look mom! No friends!

by kevin_ess on Sep 10, 2008 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you for this comment, rfloh

I want to believe… hell, I DO believe. I think we’ve all thought at times that he might not ever make the leap, but then we should remember that pitchers generally don’t at this age. As for his static tRA, well, it’s still a damn GOOD tRA, and the guy is younger than David Price or Brandon Morrow or Josh Fields.

by marc w on Sep 10, 2008 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Speaking of Josh Fields, any word on if he actually signed/is going to sign?

Or since he’s a senior, do we retain exclusive negotiating rights with him up until next year’s entry draft?

by seattlebruin on Sep 10, 2008 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know what you know, which is that he's supposedly going to sign but yes,

the M’s retain his draft rights until near next year’s draft.

The old rumor was that he was going to sign an over-slot deal, and the M’s wanted to keep that under wraps so as not to provoke the wrath of the commissioner’s office. Still may be true, but hey, the signing period’s over for the HS kids and college juniors, so I don’t really get what the hold up is, unless they want to slip the signing in on the day after the election or something.

by marc w on Sep 10, 2008 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but wouldn't they want to get him signed in time for a fall league or something?

Get him some innings? Or maybe someone realized how stupid taking a reliever in the first round is when your team isn’t very good and just decided to kill the deal

by seattlebruin on Sep 10, 2008 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hughes, Bailey, Buchholz, and Price have combined to throw 275 Major League innings

Felix has thrown well more than twice that on his own. He both has the age argument and he doesn’t, because as young as he is, I feel like he’s gained enough experience so far to start getting better. But he hasn’t. And that’s annoying.

Don’t mistake this entry as me jumping off the wagon. If I’m not leading the charge, I’m still right there at the front. It’s just that…I dunno, I never wanted to think that Felix could be anything less than amazing, but we have to acknowledge that there’s a possibility – no matter how small – that this is it.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well,

why has Hughes not thrown more MLB innings? He has repeatedly struggled with injuries. That matters, if only because those injuries are costing him development and training time.

Buchholz has struggled with ineffectiveness. Same with Bailey. And if people wonder about Felix’ maturity, Bailey is worse. There have been multiple reports from multiple sources questioning his commitment and his maturity, stating specific examples such as blowing off pitch charting assignments. And Price is probably not exactly ready yet; very small sample, etc, but he hasn’t exactly been all that impressive in AAA.

It isn’t as if Hughes et al were sitting on their asses all this time. They were pitching too. Just not at Felix’ level.

My point is that, Felix is far ahead of most highly touted pitching prospects.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Sep 10, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

Felix threw two better games in April of 2007 than the rest of those guys have combined to throw in their careers. Yes, he has tons of MLB experience, but doesn’t ARL still mean something? Doesn’t the fact that he’s been an above average pitcher in the AL since the age of 20 make it MORE likely, not less likely, that he’ll make the leap?
Ian Kennedy/Homer Bailey look like they simply don’t have the talent to make this leap. That excuse won’t work w/Felix.

by marc w on Sep 10, 2008 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know he's far ahead

I’m not blasting Felix. In no way am I blasting Felix. Felix is very good. Very, very good. My concern is this:

-Felix has the talent to be amazing
-Felix has been amazing before
-Felix is not amazing
-Felix is not making any clear progress towards being amazing

It’s not the talent that worries me. It’s the lack of progression. I’m fine with Felix taking things slowly as long as he’s improving, but he’s not visibly improving, and that stirs about all kinds of weird thoughts in my head.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think the best thing that could happen to Felix

is Brandon Morrow coming on like gang busters. Felix has been the white light of the rotation for a while, maybe the motivation of not being the BMOC will fuel the fire to improve.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Sep 10, 2008 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would be the best of both worlds

Getting another top notch pitcher in Morrow, plus getting a better Felix.

Another thing I’m wondering about the whole Felix situation is, I wonder if the culture of the starters (Silva – Washburn) of basically placing the blame on the other players has made him think that he’s actually doing better but its the other people that are effecting his overall performance. The frustrating looks he gives when a play isn’t made, seems to me that its a plausible situation.

Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!

by MfaninAlaska on Sep 10, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

This organization is so screwed up

and that can’t help his progress. It sounds like the clubhouse atmosphere is pretty shitty, the veteran pitchers he is supposed to learn from and look up to both suck and are assholes. And of course he has a new pitching coach or manager every 9 months or so. Not exactly an environment a young kid is going to blossom in.

by ack on Sep 10, 2008 10:21 AM PDT reply actions  

Save this post

I see where Jeff’s coming from, and I’m not saying he’s wrong, but I look forward to (and hope to see) the post in mid-2009 when he has to acknowledge Felix’s dominance and refers to this post to demonstrate how bad things had gotten.

by seank100 on Sep 10, 2008 10:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Felix

Yea, I pretty much stopped DVRing his starts because I can’t remember the last time he took a no-hitter passed the first inning.

I realize that Felix is still young but I wondered off-and-on at what point do we stop babying him. He’s has the tools to be beyond awesome. He’s shown several games where he is beyond awesome. Yet, for the most part he’s been just “quite good”.

Lack of competition in the ranks certainly doesn’t help. Bedard was supposed to be the number one guy this year but he ends up missing most of the season. Practically everyone that’s put in the rotation that Felix could look up to…..well….sucks. If Morrow manages to keep up his awesomeness that may force Felix to work harder on his strategy. Otherwise, yea, there’s a possibility that this big leap to greatness may never come.

by ThundaPC on Sep 10, 2008 11:27 AM PDT reply actions  

Perhaps I'm wrong...

But I get the feeling the Giants don’t freak out every friggin time Lincecum has a sub-par outing. I feel like a lot of people here are too swayed by recent results even in the face of knowing that small sample sizes are close to meaningless. I think everyone should lighten up and realize that he’s still going to give us good to spectacular outings for the majority of his starts. So stop squandering his efforts.

Most people may be annoyed by the fact that he could do so much better if he changed just a few things (ex. stop “establishing the fastball”). But still, it’s getting old to have to read post after post of negativity. While I realize most of it is just reality and not negativity, I still feel like we need to let a few bad starts go unnoticed. Felix is the least of this team’s worries.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 12:01 PM PDT reply actions  

Lincecum has realized his true talent level

he’s pitching as he should be. Felix isn’t. He’s just not, and the reason is almost entirely things that are in his control – pitch selection, mound demeanor, etc.

We have way too much emotionally invested in Felix as our hope to save this franchise to ever entertain the notion that just maybe he might not be everything we thought he was. Unfortunately, Felix has given us cause for this negativity as of late – he’s the same, if not a slightly worse pitcher than he was in 2006 at age 20.

I have no doubt that someday Felix will wear his crown and win a few Cy Youngs and toss a couple of no-hitters. We’re all just a little anxious for that King Felix to hurry the hell up and get here.

by seattlebruin on Sep 10, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't get me wrong

I love analyzing baseball- it consumes a lot of my free time. I also understand that Felix is one of the only players even remotely worth analyzing on this team right now b/c (basically) everybody else is horrible at what they do.

What I’m saying is that it feels like everyone’s bipolar with regards to Felix.
Good start= adulation, full support, praise to The King.
Bad start= Depression

I just think it’s unwise to wholeheartedly invest in his results, and to react in such a volatile manner.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

We have no choice but to invest wholeheartedly in his results

There’s nobody else. For a while now, Felix has been my everything. And I know I’m not alone in thinking that.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, your everything.

Mine too. Now what if you had a bombshell for a wife but every time she didn’t look absolutely impeccable, you told her she should try harder/use a different kind of makeup/get up earlier to do her hair.
This sort of tough love support for Felix may be necessary at times, but at this point I just feel like more of it, especially towards our best player, isn’t what’s needed.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not that he is directly affected (unless he regularly reads this, which I can't say if he does or not)

But it’s hard to deny the negativity surrounding this franchise from every direction. And that definitely has an impact on the fanbase, media, coaches, and more importantly the players.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure that can actually be known

unless you’re in the clubhouse on a regular basis. Besides, all Jeff was doing was preparing to alter his expectations; Felix has shown nothing to indicate such a retrenchment may not be warranted.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

wow, that was almost a triple negative

but even still it was certainly an awkward sentence.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think I know what that last part means.

Took a double read-through though haha

OK if nothing else, can we at least use Felix as a learning tool to not over-invest in a player early? I would hate to see Triunfel show “nothing to indicate such a retrenchment may not be warranted.”

sorry to waste everyone’s time… It’s just that, to me and apparently only me, an analysis of Felix on September 10th of a season lost long ago is unnecessary.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the point is bigger than that, though

if you accept the premise that Felix isn’t phoning it in, which makes the “season lost long ago” part somewhat moot, the point seems to be that Felix’s development as a young theoretical-stud pitcher has plateaued over the last year or so; the question then becomes, what if this plateau is as high as he gets? That seems to be Jeff’s fear, and the fear of a lot of others as well.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

hm.. my response is:

is this “plateaued Felix” really that awful of a scenario? The only reason one would answer “yes” to that question is if one’s expectations were too high to begin with.

Felix is a stud. A #1 pitcher candidate. He’s homegrown and not costing us a penny right now.

Let’s not be disappointed with him, he’s doing a pretty damn good job.

MTV Cribs justifies most illegal music downloading.

by Brick on Sep 10, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Our expectations aren't too high, and they never were.

That’s precisely the thing. Felix is capable of being exactly what we all want him to be. He’s been that guy before, for a few starts in 2007 and for half a year in 2005. But in the overall picture, he has thus far fallen short, and what bothers me is that he hasn’t made any visible, substantial progress.

This isn’t an awful scenario. Felix rocks. But it’s a disappointing scenario. If you have someone who has it in his power to be a 10, why should you ever be satisfied with 8?

This isn’t me being negative after a bad start. This is me being cautious and concerned after a season of stagnation. Or two or even three seasons of stagnation, really.

Do you agree that Felix could be better?

Do you agree that Felix should be better?

If so, I don’t see how you can be enthusiastic about the way things have gone. I’m happy that he’s good and I’m happy that he could very easy still become great, but I’m unhappy that he hasn’t gotten there yet after a mind-blowing ML debut.

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 10, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is my entire thing

Felix is a stud. A #1 pitcher candidate.

I can’t be specific without veering into politics, but I can name you countless candidates for countless things that never live up to the promises of their candidacy. Candidacy in and of itself means nothing; Felix has to make the strides we all want him to make and grab the mantle of #1-ness we all want for him, and so far he hasn’t done that.

I don’t think anybody here expects to see the Felix that one-hit the Red Sox every time out, but there have been far more games closer to last night’s performance level than to that night’s in Felix’ season, and that’s a bothersome thing for someone that’s a “#1 pitcher candidate”.

Potential means nothing unless it’s realized.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Sep 10, 2008 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's still the King of this court!

Unless Silva assassinates him… then Prince Morrow or Queen Bedard (see what I did there, haha) would take over.

Okay, I’m not funny.

:(

by Wilder. on Sep 10, 2008 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

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