Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

by Matthew on Sep 1, 2008 8:35 AM PDT in Series Previews Comment 22 comments

Seattle: 53-83
Rangers: 67-71

GAMES

Game 1: Carlos Silva vs Matt Harrison*
Game 2: Ryan Feierabend vs Brandon McCarthy
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs Dustin Nippert

Matt Harrison had been terrible so far in 2008 when we last faced off against the Rangers and he lived up to the billing allowing six runs in 4.2 innings with five walks and just two strikeouts. He checks in at a 5.43 tRA. Of course, that's better than Carlos Silva and his 5.65.

Brandon McCarthy hasn't had much of a season with just 10 big league innings thrown (poorly) so far and just a handful more thrown down in the minors. Feierabend only has 15 innings thrown but his have been ok, thanks in large part to a so far low homerun on ball in air ratio and a really low walk rate. I'm sure that being a flyball pitcher in Arlington, his homerun rate will manage to stay depressed.

Dustin Nippert becomes our third consecutive small sample size pitcher so I'll just take the time to note that going by tRA, the Rangers have had just two starting pitchers play above average for them this season. One of them is Warner Madrigal who threw four innings for them in one start. The other one was Sidney Ponson. Huh?

Likely Starters:
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia^/Gerald Laird
1 Hank Blalock
2 Joaquin Arias
3 Chris Davis*
S Michael Young
L Marlon Byrd
C Josh Hamilton*
R Nelson Cruz
D Milton Bradley^

The Rangers boast four hitters who have been worth more than ten runs above average with their bats. Of course, the Rangers have a league worst .675 DER, so...

Defense matters.

CONTEXT

The last time we played the Rangers was right before the trade deadline. It was the last time I actually cared about the day to day ongoings of this team.

And so begins September and in the next few days, some call ups from Tacoma to rekindle at least a passing interest in me about this team. I'm not optimistic, but interested to watch Brandon Morrow start. I'm very afraid of Matt Tuiasosopo on the big league roster because I cannot see how the Mariners could ever get rid of a guy with that last name in Seattle.

Sorry for the short content, but as previously mentioned, I've been in SoCal all weekend and am only traveling back in a few hours. Enjoy the day off (if you have it).

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Speedway Stout
AleSmith Brewing. San Diego, CA

Yummy.

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Comments

Seattle: 39-65

uhhhh.

Fight for sidebar equality:
Sidebar Neo-LL and bring the information to the masses. http://neolookoutlanding.blogspot.com/

by Robert on Sep 1, 2008 8:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas:54-51

Somebody copied and pasted!

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.277/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Sep 1, 2008 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

zoinks

by Matthew on Sep 1, 2008 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling kids

by Gomez on Sep 1, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't watched a Mariners game in nearly two weeks

I’m betting that the streak won’t be broken by Silva v. Harrison.

Re: Brandon McCarthy. Texas has to be regretting that Johnny Danks trade.

by katal on Sep 1, 2008 9:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yay, more fox baseball theme between outs.

I have eight watches. None of them are fake.

by RafaelCarmona22 on Sep 1, 2008 9:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Ball three

DUN DUN DUN DUNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

by Gomez on Sep 1, 2008 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure whether or not the PA music they use is hilarious or annoying.

by BrianL on Sep 1, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ahh....September. 26 games left.

- Team needs to go 10-16 to avoid a 100-loss season.
- Only 11 games are against +.500 teams (Yankees and Angels).
- Only 8 games are against contenders (Angels).
- The rest (15 games) are against teams that decided to suck after the All-Star break (Rangers x5, Athletics x6, Royals x4).

We are in danger of winning games here.

by ThundaPC on Sep 1, 2008 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not if THIS MAN can help it!

by Gomez on Sep 1, 2008 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we win the rest of our games and every other team in the AL loses the rest of their games (might be impossible) we can still get the Wild Card

by goodmorning on Sep 1, 2008 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Pretty sure it's still possible.

I’ll finish running through it, though, to be sure..

Bring back José Cruz Jr!

by darmok on Sep 1, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool, it's possible!

(note: assume NYY wins their current game, but it works either way)
disclaimer: there was probably a better way to do this

here is a possible scenario:

For the rest of the season:
Wins-Losses:
TB: 3-0 (NYY) + 3-0 (TOR) + 3-0 (BOS) + 3-0 (NYY) + 3-0 (BOS) + 4-0 (MIN) + 4-0 (BAL) + 4-0 (DET) = 27-0

CWS: 3-0 (CLE) + 3-0 (LAA) + 4-0 (TOR) + 3-0 (DET) + 4-0 (NYY) + 0-3 (KC) + 3-0 (MIN) + 3-0 (CLE) = 23-3

LAA: 3-0 (DET) + 0-3 (CWS) + 3-0 (NYY) + 0-4 (SEA) + 3-0 (OAK) + 3-0 (TEX) + 0-4 (SEA) + 3-0 (TEX) = 15-11

SEA: 3-0 (TEX) + 3-0 (NYY) + 2-0 (TEX) + 4-0 (LAA) + 4-0 (KC) + 3-0 (OAK) + 4-0 (LAA) + 3-0 (OAK) = 26-0

BOS: 0-3 (BAL) + 0-3 (TEX) + 0-3 (TB) + 0-4 (TOR) + 0-3 (TB) + 0-3 (TOR) + 0-4 (CLE) + 0-3 (NYY) = 0-26

MIN: 2-1 (TOR) + 0-3 (DET) + 0-3 (KC) + 0-3 (BAL) + 0-3 (CLE) + 0-4 (TB) + 0-3 (CWS) + 0-3 (KC) = 2-23

NYY: 0-3 (TB) + 0-3 (SEA) + 0-3 (LAA) + 0-3 (TB) + 0-4 (CWS) + 0-3 (BAL) + 2-1 (TOR) + 0-3 (BOS) = 2-23

TOR: 1-2 (MIN) + 0-3 (TB) + 0-4 (CWS) + 4-0 (BOS) + 0-3 (BAL) + 3-0 (BOS) + 1-2 (NYY) + 0-3 (BAL) = 9-17

TEX: 0-3 (SEA) + 3-0 (BOS) + 0-2 (SEA) + 4-0 (OAK) + 3-0 (DET) + 0-3 (LAA) + 0-3 (OAK) + 0-3 (LAA) = 10-14

DET: 0-3 (LAA) + 3-0 (MIN) + 0-3 (OAK) + 0-3 (CWS) + 0-3 (TEX) + 3-0 (CLE) + 3-0 (KC) + 0-4 (TB) = 9-16

CLE: 0-3 (CWS) + 0-3 (KC) + 4-0 (BAL) + 0-4 (KC) + 3-0 (MIN) + 0-3 (DET) + 4-0 (BOS) + 0-3 (CWS) = 11-16

BAL: 3-0 (BOS) + 0-3 (OAK) + 0-4 (CLE) + 3-0 (MIN) + 3-0 (TOR) + 3-0 (NYY) + 0-4 (TB) + 3-0 (TOR) = 15-11

OAK: 3-0 (KC) + 3-0 (BAL) + 3-0 (DET) + 0-4 (TEX) + 0-3 (LAA) + 0-3 (SEA) + 3-0 (TEX) + 0-3 (SEA) = 12-13

KC: 0-3 (OAK) + 3-0 (CLE) + 3-0 (MIN) + 4-0 (CLE) + 0-4 (SEA) + 3-0 (CWS) + 0-3 (DET) + 3-0 (MIN) = 16-10

Add that to each team’s current record:

TB: 27-0 + 84-51 = 111-51, AL East Winner

CWS: 23-3 + 77-59 = 100-62, AL Central Winner

LAA: 15-11 + 83-53 = 98-64, AL West Winner

SEA: 26-0 + 53-83 = 79-83, five-way wild card tie

BOS: 0-26 + 79-57 = 79-83, five-way wild card tie

MIN: 2-23 + 77-60 = 79-83, five-way wild card tie

NYY: 2-23 + 73-64 = 75-87

TOR: 9-17 + 70-66 = 79-83, five-way wild card tie

TEX: 10-14 + 67-71 = 77-85

DET: 9-16 + 66-71 = 75-87

CLE: 11-16 + 65-70 = 76-86

BAL: 15-11 + 63-73 = 78-84

OAK: 12-13 + 63-74 = 75-87

KC: 16-10 + 57-79 = 73-89, five-way wild card tie

In other words:
-The Mariners and Rays win every game for the rest of the year
-The Red Sox lose every game for the rest of the year
-CWS loses 3 to KC but wins the rest
-LAA loses 8 to Ms and 3 to CWS but wins the rest

..and, given those constrictions (ignoring games involving mariners, rays, either sox, or laa):
-Minnesota goes 2-1 vs Jays but loses the rest
-NYY goes 2-1 vs Jays but loses the rest
-Tor goes 1-2 against both Minn and NYY and loses the rest

Then…Baltimore loses the rest of their games that haven’t already been accounted for…followed by Cleveland, KC, and Detroit……then Oakland and Texas split their two remaining series.

We can still win the wild card! It’s never too late to give up hope!!

Bring back José Cruz Jr!

by darmok on Sep 1, 2008 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs