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Exploring The Defensive Spectrum

The defensive spectrum is a term coined by Bill James in the 80s, and attempts to show the relative scarcity of defenders able to play a certain position. In order of most common to least, it looks something like this:

DH-->1B-->LF-->RF-->3B-->CF-->2B-->SS-->C*

Many people would describe this as a ranking from easiest to hardest, but that misses out on a lot of the subtleties of the game. Think about it: would you really expect a catcher to be able to play a competent centre field? No, obviously not. This is because there are many different skills a defender can have, and each position weights these skills differently. Matthew and I have come up with a quick list of skills a defender might have:

Star-divide

Reaction Time (RT): How fast the player reacts to a batted ball.

Reaction Direction (RD): Accuracy of initial break.

Routerunning (RR): Minimising the deviation a linear path from the initial fielding position to where the play must be made. Requires a good feel for the motion of the ball in flight and early compensation for spin/wind altering the trajectory of the baseball.

Speed (SP): Raw footspeed. Fairly self explanatory.

Hands (HD): The ability to make clean catches, field the ball off the ground, and transfer the ball quickly and consistently.

Arm Strength (AS): How hard the fielder can throw.

Arm Accuracy (AA): " accurately ".

There are other, more minor things to consider (feet, positioning, teamwork, etc), but by and large these seem to be the big seven. Now that we have our fielding toolbox, we can guess at how important each is to a given position:

POS RT RD RR SP HD AS AA
DH 0
0
0 0 0 0 0
C 6 1 1 1 9 8 8
1B 7 6 1 1 9 1 1
2B 5 6 2 3 7 4 6
3B 8 5 1 1 8 7 8
SS 5 6 2 5 8 8 9
LF 4 4 7 5 2 4 6
CF 5 5 9 7 2 6 6
RF 4 4 7 5 2 8 6


These weights are not meant to be definitive; they are simply a reasonable guess at the skills required for each position. In order to establish the true weightings, we need some method of measuring each skill on a player as well as well as an overall defensive metric that people are happy to use (perhaps some average of PMR, UZR, RZR, etc). I know Matthew's interested in developing various ways of evaluating these tools, and Tangotiger's fan surveys are also heading along this route, albeit in a much more subjective fashion (which may work better, who knows?).

By framing the defensive spectrum in this manner, we can look at the potential merits of position changes far more clearly than by use of the unweighted spectrum alone. It's a cool little idea which I think definitely deserves further thought.

*This is not a strict definition: 2B and CF get flipped around a lot, and individual parks may also have an effect on the ordering.

2 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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Hey, a post I understood every word of. Sweet.

I love this idea, by the way. Great stuff.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Aug 9, 2008 12:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

CF arm strength

I’ve always thought that the importance of arm strength for CFs is undervalued. The CF handles more balls than any other OF, and makes more throws from the deepest parts of the park than any other player. If the most important throw an OF can make is the one that holds a runner at third base, the CF should make more of those throws than any other OF.

In addition, I think the CF has as many opportunities to keep a runner from advancing first to third on a single, which is the situation most cited for requiring the strongest arm in RF. The situations in which a strong CF arm stops the runner is a different set of situations – a strong-armed CF will have occasion to hold runners when he cuts off a ball in the gap.

I’m not saying that arm strength isn’t important for a RF. Clearly it is. I don’t find it immediately obvious that arm strength is more important in RF than in CF. And of course range is the most important factor for a CF; the first priority is to catch fly balls and prevent balls from getting through in the gaps.

by Steve Nelson on Aug 9, 2008 4:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Fair criticisms, Steve, and thank you

Like I said, this is all preliminary guesswork, so any and all feedback is more then welcome. How would you rework the table for CF/RF?

by Graham on Aug 9, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say a few minor tweaks

LF AA = 5 (will be less tested so throws matter less)
LF SP = 4 (a ball past the LF is probably less costly than a ball rolling past the CF or RF)
RT for all the IF should go up or the OF should go down one
Why is RD less important for 3B vs 1B/2B/SS?

by Edgar for Pres on Aug 9, 2008 5:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Why is RD less important for 3B vs 1B/2B/SS?
Matthew says:
they typically cover less ground? I don’t really remember.

Which I’m sure is useful…

by Graham on Aug 9, 2008 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To expound a little further

the chart itself was an off-the-cuff creation with no actual analysis put into it. I just thought it was a good way to look at things. It certainly needs to be revised and I’m sure it’s not even consistent at this point.

However, yeah, I’d argue that 3B do certainly have less range to cover than 2B/SS and thus RD is less important and I think 3B has a little less ground to cover than 1B as well, but that’s just a gut feeling.

by Matthew on Aug 9, 2008 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would think that 1B has a little less ground to cover than 3B personally.

Though I wonder how much positioning and play situation have an effect on that. Considering that 1B on average is more likely to head to the bag and cede balls in play that they think the second basemen can get. To whereas on average a 3B won’t make that same choice.

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.280/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Aug 9, 2008 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

3B and reaction direction.

Because balls hit to third are either hit very hard or very soft I think the reaction direction should probably be the highest of all infielders (because one step in the wrong direction on a hard hit ball and it is by the player). Also the route running should probably be the highest in the infield because bunts and ichi-dribblers that are not picked up at the utmost earliest opportunity probably end up as infield singles. So my numbers for third base would be 8,7,3,1,8,7,8.

by mw3 on Aug 11, 2008 1:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

2B vs. 3B

From what I’ve seen, defensive spectrum rankings pretty much universally rate second as a harder position to play than third. It also definitely seems like third basemen as a whole hit better than second baseman, which is in line with conventional wisdom and reinforces that third is probably easier.

However, the offensive positional adjustments that people like Tango and Dave Cameron use have the same adjustment for second as for third. Why is this? Are second and third actually equally scarce, or is there something else going on?

The only thing I can figure out is that maybe second and third are close to equally difficult to play, giving them an equal positional adjustment, but that the skills required for third base (quick reflexes, arm strength) naturally lend themselves more to hitting for power, causing third basemen to hit better on average.

Am I way off base? This is something I’ve been wondering about for a while.

by Simon Phoenix on Aug 9, 2008 5:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It may be that teams are relaxing the defensive standards at 2B somewhat, as well.

That part of the spectrum is pretty tightly bunched, yeah, and you may be right regarding the respective hitting ability tying into defence. But I don’t know.

by Graham on Aug 9, 2008 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where do we place pitchers on this spectrum? Or is the sample size too small to do so?

Something like this perhaps?

RT:8
RD:7
RR:1
SP:3
HD:9
AS:1
AA:7

"All I’ve ever done is be Juan Pierre when I wear this jersey. They’re sticking it to me this year for whatever reason. "

.280/.324/.316

~Juan Pierre

by Goose on Aug 9, 2008 6:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A defensive skill that I believe exists yet

is often given to much credit is ball skills. Ball skill are simply the abilty to make a play on the ball when you can get to the ball. Obviously range is more important seeing how getting to more balls is more important. But lets say you have to OF with all of the same skills you listed above (foot speed, reaction time, arm strength). It stands to reason that one of the players might be better at making a play on the ball when in a difficult situation. ex- People have always doubted Jim Edmonds range but its hard to deny his ability to make a play on the balls that he can get to. Therefore Jim Edmonds > outfielder with all of the same physical abilites as Jim Edmonds minus ball skills. I might be crazy but this makes sense to me.

by coasty141 on Aug 9, 2008 11:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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