Miguel Batista is not Awesome.

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 11:12 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

or:

The Worst Starting Pitcher Performances of the Past Half Decade

Last	First	Team	tRA	xOuts	Year	tRA+
Floyd	Gavin	PHI	8.02	165	2006	63
Batista	Miguel	SEA	7.67	257	2008	61
Chen	Bruce	BAL	7.57	182	2006	67
Elarton	Scott	KCA	7.39	329	2006	69
Nomo	Hideo	LAN	7.32	247	2004	64
Waechter	Doug	TBA	7.22	202	2004	68
Bacsik	Mike	WAS	7.20	315	2007	70
Davies	Kyle	KCA	7.19	154	2007	69
Fossum	Casey	TBA	7.18	158	2007	69
Correia	Kevin	SFN	7.10	156	2005	68
Mulder	Mark	SLN	7.05	291	2006	71
Table 1: xOuts >= 150. ~IP > 50

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Comments

Gavin Floyd and Mark Mulder??

Wow. I wouldn’t have guessed those two would be on this list.

I'm back to liking midgets too much.

by Thingray on Aug 5, 2008 11:15 AM PDT reply actions

Huh, two Rays? Ouch.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 11:20 AM PDT reply actions

Just suprised it was only 2

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 5, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Surprised*

Dammit, I always type a bagillion times more at LL

"STP is me. He can do everything I can do." - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Aug 5, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions

You have a soft spot for him, eh?

That writeup on his awesome game was one of my favorite pieces from you.

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

It's not even a soft spot

Weaver wasn’t that bad last year

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

According to THT, his LD% against was only 17.4%.

Walks were a little elevated from the past few years (not as high as his 04 campaign, though). HR/G down from prior seasons…

What gives? What the heck happened?

by BrianL on Aug 5, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions

63.7% LOB%

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions

That'll do it.

by BrianL on Aug 5, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Let it be said that Weaver wasn't a good pitcher last year

he just wasn’t terrible.

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

5.38 tRA

Carlos Silva (2008): 5.48

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions

I still think we should have re-signed him

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

In place of Silva?

In a second.

by pygmalion on Aug 5, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh I understand that.

It’s just that it doesn’t look like his results should have been that awful.

by BrianL on Aug 5, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Is that current?

I thought Graham said during the GT that he was over 8 now?

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 11:26 AM PDT reply actions

That was a guess based on his performance last night

Matthew’s numbers are right

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Astoundingly he only allowed one line drive

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh, OK.

I was just skimming the GT this morning, and saw that.

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

So in order to continue the trend if suck thats gone Moyer>Pinero>Ho>Batista

We would literally have to the worst pitched season in the last 10 years. Neato.

by Robert on Aug 5, 2008 11:28 AM PDT reply actions

Nah, last five years.

Matthew said half decade.

by R.J. Anderson on Aug 5, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions

I am shocked that '07 HoRam and Jeff Weaver are not on this list.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on Aug 5, 2008 11:30 AM PDT reply actions

Weaver was pretty decent

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Ho's not far off though

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Almost a full point away

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions

Weaver's BABIP was horrific.

Staggeringly bad.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Aug 5, 2008 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I am staggered that his BABIP against was so awful with a not-that-bad LD rate

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions

It's situations like this in which we could really use the sort of information that HITf/x would provide

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions

PITCHf/x has been such an eye-opener for me.

I can’t wait to see what HITf/x can uncover.

by BrianL on Aug 5, 2008 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions

We'll never have to look at BABIP - LD ever again

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

That will be glorious.

by BrianL on Aug 5, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions

It's so much better than the alternatives

Everyone looked at BABIP w/o batted-ball types before.

BABIP -LD still seems really cool and cutting edge to me, albeit with major drawbacks. Hell, it wasn’t THAT long ago that no one knew what the hell BABIP was or why they should give a damn about it.

Progress!

now get off my lawn.

by marc w on Aug 5, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

The others in that table

Most of the xOut figs are quite low, only a couple are up around the 300+ mark.

Is it fair to assume that quite a few of those seasons were injury-ravaged?

The english Mariner who isn't EnglishMariner --- P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page

by MarkE on Aug 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT reply actions

or, I guess, they were just replaced/demoted?

The english Mariner who isn't EnglishMariner --- P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page

by MarkE on Aug 5, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Most teams are smart enough to not let pitchers with a tRA above 7 continue to pitch.

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Glad to see we're learning from our mistakes...

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steve Traschel donning a M’s uni next season, because he looks good in blue.

by Omerta on Aug 5, 2008 12:03 PM PDT reply actions

What's Gavin Floyd's TRA Look like this year?

He looks like he’s turned around some.

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 12:03 PM PDT reply actions

4.84

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Isn't there somewhere we can look these up ourselves?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Aug 5, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

If you have access to Graham's computer, sure

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Damn.

We need a daily leaderboard or something like it.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Aug 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Not public yet

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

There will be very shortly

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions

This is probably a dumb question, but whatever...

Can someone explain how the Cardinals become SLN? Or the Royals become KCA? Is there some obvious pattern I’m missing?

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on Aug 5, 2008 12:16 PM PDT reply actions

KCA = Kansas City, American League

SLN = St Louis, National League

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions

The N and A preserve the three-letter abbreviation

by Jeff Sullivan on Aug 5, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

You could always go for STL

and KAN (I forget what broadcast I saw that on).

by Faux on Aug 5, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I adhere to MLB standards

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Source?

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on Aug 5, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Per

mlb.com St. Louis is STL and Kansas City is KC

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I use team codes.

http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_04/day_24/

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

You and your Gameday...

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

He just needs to be different.

Finally, some recognition.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Aug 5, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Matthew's "special"

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions

This is what I expected.

Most of the other teams just use the first three letters of the place. I can’t figure out why that didn’t hold up.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on Aug 5, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

were in the American League (-> Orioles in 1954). This made me think that maybe MLB just wanted to keep this clear. But the only KC team in the NL was the the Kansas City Cowboys were in the National League who played just one season in 1886.

So this is probably just a case of bureaucracy leading to uglier abbreviations (as happened to the state abbreviations once the Post Office got its way on using just 2-letters).

by pygmalion on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I always liked CWS for the White Sox

but that one’s a little unusual.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Aug 5, 2008 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Post updated to add tRA+ to the mix.

Guess who’s worst!

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 12:22 PM PDT reply actions

I thought he might be

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm really excited because it sure looks like Batista is going to pitch more than anyone else on this list

257 xOuts with 50 games to go…

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't be sure about that.

If they bring RRS up, it could all be over real quick.

Is it just me, or is this AJ trade looking worse every day?

by The Alaskan on Aug 5, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Doubt he gets (m)any starts in Sept though.

RRS, possibly Morrow, Dickey and Bedard should all be vying for rotation turns by then.

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

No floor

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Are you in anyway suggesting that Miguel Batista doesn’t belong in a Major League rotation?

by PascoJoe on Aug 5, 2008 12:33 PM PDT reply actions

I have a really hard time reconciling the Gavin Floyd of today with the Gavin Floyd of two years ago

Or even the Gavin Floyd of last year.

by OlSalty on Aug 5, 2008 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

Batista

Remember when he grumbled about being slotted 5th in the rotation before the start of the season considering he was a “16-game winner”?

Wow, he sucks.

by ThundaPC on Aug 5, 2008 1:27 PM PDT reply actions

Why should I trust this stat named "tRA"?

I know, I know, our community’s finest minds are working on it. But it’s not public yet, right? How is it calculated?

I don’t want to sound too pissy here – hey, I love my evil Lookout Landing overlords! – but I instantly discard all BP proprietary stats precisely because, however close they seem to come to my own assessments, they’re ultimately a “black box.” I’m intrigued by tRA, especially due to the massive pimping it’s been given by Graham, but can you understand my reluctance to see it constantly cited as the PRIMARY statistical determinant of pitcher quality until I’ve been able to kick the tires a bit?

[wonders if he is about to smell the inside of The Box]

I root for the two worst teams in baseball, non-ironically.

by esoteric on Aug 5, 2008 1:44 PM PDT reply actions

P.S. Miguel Batista sucks worse than The Simpsons after season 7 or so.

I root for the two worst teams in baseball, non-ironically.

by esoteric on Aug 5, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I've done my best to ensure that it's not a black box though...

Short of sitting next to everyone and deriving the stuff on paper, my tRA posts have been designed to explain the calculations in enough detail for you to play with them yourselves.

Furthermore, if anyone wants last year’s spreadsheet to play with, all they need to do is ask (and I’ve said this a few times). I don’t want to be in the BP position of black boxing everything – I wrote a post about that strategy being detrimental to the advancement of research, but at the same time I don’t want to hold everyone’s hand as they work through the calculations.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

PS: 'Not public' just means that the website Matthew and I are working on isn't ready for release yet

I think all the information you really need can be found in ‘the tRA post’ over in the reference section, or searching tRA through the archives and looking at my diaries on it.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 5, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions

tRA is no more black box than FIP or xFIP is.

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

You previously mentioned the possibility of doing these for the minors

How much work are you looking at in terms of compiling data?

by Gomez on Aug 5, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Lots.

by Matthew on Aug 5, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Did you hear from Jeff Sackman about possibly

using his spider/bot to grab PBP data from MiLB.com?

Or do you need to create something specific to this project?

by marc w on Aug 5, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions

? through Graham's tRA posts he's made his method very clear

and it’s really not that hard to go back and re-create it from scratch given the data that he provided in those posts – if you made a quick spreadsheet, you could probably guesstimate tRA within ~5% just from the early 2008 data that Graham gave and fangraphs batted ball profiles

The Jose Lopez Watch - 137 H, 16 BB, 50 G Left

by seattlebruin on Aug 5, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions