Interesting Write-up on Defense at Baseball Analysts

by TheEmrys on Aug 1, 2008 12:13 PM PDT Comment 17 comments

If you haven't read Baseball Analysts, you're missing out. Very good work done. Rich Lederer is a pretty smart guy, but he gets a lot of even smarter guys to do some work there (Dave Cameron and Jeff have both written there). An article popped up yesterday by Myron Logan (of Friar Forcast) regarding defense. He takes Inez's work with THT's data and comes up with some info. Not sure how accurate it is, but it looks pretty sound.

Some of the things it shows is that Beltre is the 3rd best fielder (given his percentage of plays in zone and plays he makes out of the zone).

The article also takes a long look at Yuniesky Betancourt. He's slighly below average at at plays in the zone and well below average at balls out of the zone.

Well worth the read.

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You screwed up the link....

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/8/1/584728/www.baseballanalysts.com is what you have.

by Grubbie on Aug 1, 2008 12:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Been fixed.

by Matthew on Aug 1, 2008 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I screw up a lot of things.

And thanks.

by TheEmrys on Aug 1, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the link.

I’m new to LL, and metrics. Articles like this one, and bookmarking websites like Baseball Analysts, priceless. Thanks.

by dpseadv on Aug 1, 2008 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to LL.

Have you had a chance to read the “Suggested Reading” section over at the USSM?

Linky

These were the first articles I read regarding metric analysis. Great stuff.

by BrianL on Aug 1, 2008 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the suggestion!

Yes I’ve been there, and have bookmarked many many references. I wrote a post at the M’s official website at about 5am this morning regarding my initial experiences. Just now realized I’m practically blogging there now, yeesh. And your game threads are all that makes this season worthwhile (I lurk). Wow, that came off kind of creepy.

by dpseadv on Aug 2, 2008 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's unbelieveable that Yuni has gone from 2005 to the 9th worst fielder in the majors.

Who could have guessed that his unreal range would turn into the shit so quickly.

):<

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Aug 1, 2008 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The discussion on Chipper Jones reminds me of something I've wondered about Beltre

Currently, Beltre’s BIZ rating isn’t very good, but he’s making an ungodly amount of OOZ plays.
The system as currently described would LOVE players who play near the edge of their zone – trading an in-zone play for an OOZ play seems like it would boost your rating by a lot.

So anyway, the point is: if Beltre’s shading left, driving his total ranking up, it seems likely that he would be pulling Betancourt’s number down, right? If Beltre’s making so many OOZ plays, he’s taking plays (or chances) from somebody, and Betancourt’s gotta be the guy. You could adjust this I guess by not counting a ball as a play in the SS zone if the 3B fields it first, but I’m not sure if that’s what’s actually done.

None of this changes the basic picture with Betancourt – I mean, Yunel Escobar still looks amazing, despite the many plays that Chipper is ‘taking.’ Betancourt is below average in zone as it is, but I just wonder if there’s a zone between 3b and SS where Adrian is simply getting to everything, reducing YuBet’s ability to even attempt OOZ plays (yes, he should make more up the middle). I’m sure UZR deals with this, but I’m not sure exactly how.

by marc w on Aug 1, 2008 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yuni really is puzzling.

Maybe all his diving/rangy plays are actually what make his in zone plays about average and he just cant get to the OOZ area.

I thought it was interesting how two of the top three players were 3B. Also, Ichiro was far below average in CF, but ridiculously above average for such a short time in RF.

by Jed MC on Aug 1, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And one was a 3B who's (almost) universally regarded as the worst defender

in the national league. I don’t get it. I keep thinking that Yunel Escobar has something to do with it, though in this metric, I can’t see how he could be.

by marc w on Aug 1, 2008 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The discussion about Chipper is interesting

but pretty much all the PBP metrics, zone rating, UZR, RZR, have had Chipper as a decent defender since he moved back to 3b from the OF.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Aug 2, 2008 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm... RZR had him last in MLB in 2006

and fair-to-middling in 2007. I haven’t seen UZR (got some numbers?), and PMR had him dead-on average in 2007 and a bit below in 2006.

I can accept that he was never as awful as his reputation, but this is the first system (that I’m aware of) that’s rated him as legitimately great. The ONLY reason I can think of is the treatment of OOZ plays. Is there another option here? Incredible luck in what’s still a small sample?

by marc w on Aug 4, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chipper @ 3B, 2004-mid2007

+8 per 150 (UZR).

by Jeff on Aug 4, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fascinating

and yet still significantly lower than the numbers thrown around for 2008.

I’d still like to know how each system handles OOZ plays – are OOZ plays really given that much weight? Can you play out of position enough to look awesome?

by marc w on Aug 4, 2008 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs