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Rich Harden --------> Cubs

70full_tiny by Omerta on Comment 211 comments

According to WSCR-670 in Chicago, Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin has been traded to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and catching prospect Josh Donaldson.

Jim Hendry's got a press conference going right now.

MLB Link (better than Sun Times)

I find this to be a solid deal for both teams.  Billy Beane must not think his boys can do it this year.  Talk about a guy that's not afraid to pull the trigger.

Matthew's Edit for 75 words: As much as I want Bedard on the 2009 team, I'd be on the phone to St. Louis right now seeing how desperate they feel with Milwaukee landing Sabathia and Chicago nabbing Harden.

 

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It helps to trade players who are capable of playing 1/2 a season

Harden is truly a force of nature, but nature seems determined to keep him on the bench.

When you discount for probable playing time, I’d say the A’s did pretty well. No amazing players, but a decent haul for a (great) pitcher who hasn’t made 20 starts since 2004.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   1 recs

Gaudin's no slouch either.

Funny how I really wanted the Ms to grab him from TOR off waivers back in ‘06.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 4:10 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why would we do that?

Then who would we offer $48 million dollars to the following year?

by LantermanC on Jul 8, 2008 4:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Which one?

the guy who was walking the world (BRB) in 2006-7, or this newfangled control-artist Gaudin?
If his 2008 is for real, then yeah, the Cubs kicked some ass. If Beane is selling high on 2 months of great peripherals (thanks in part to a move back to the pen), then that’s something else. Tough to know.

Sean Gallagher’s a good pitcher; it’s also not like the Cubs are sending over scrubs.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2007 Gaudin was below average, but still solid and a great value.

He’s not great or anything, and I’m not marginalizing Oakland’s return, just saying Gaudin is useful.

And he would have been greatly useful in place of signing Washburn.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 4:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fuck the heck?

I agree with MFAN, it looks like the Cubs won out on this.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 8, 2008 3:53 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah

I’ll usually give Beane the benefit of the doubt, but I’m not very impressed with the return.

by MFAN on Jul 8, 2008 3:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So, does this mean that the A's are throwing in the towel?

Most of those guys are MLB ready. Did they just swap pitching for hitting and stay about the same strength?

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 8, 2008 3:54 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see how it's not throwing in the towel

Harden is far and away the best pitcher in the batch, and while his injury prone-ness is well documented, his production isn’t going to be replaced by Gallagher.

by Omerta on Jul 8, 2008 3:59 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, to the second question.

"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk

by iglew on Jul 8, 2008 11:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If I were an A's fan I'd be so fucking pissed.

This appears to be a complete betrayal of the fan base.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 3:59 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just wait

until every prospect they got turns into solid to good players. I really like Murton.

by Kevman22 on Jul 8, 2008 4:39 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see

they are definitely throwing in the towel with this trade. They are still close to first, and the Angels are destined to lose some of their incredible luck this year. It seams like the A’s are always good, but will never cross that line into greatness because of Bean’s moneyball philosophy.

by Kevman22 on Jul 8, 2008 4:44 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Until tomorrow

when the A’s announce the signing of Barry Bonds to a pro-rated $6.5 million contract with the money saved today.

by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:45 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think this is good for us...gets a lot of talent out of the market.

And there is a lot of time between now and the trading deadline.

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jul 8, 2008 3:59 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, my point is

-The Ms shouldn’t want to trade Bedard
-The Ms should be open to listening to offers for Bedard
-The Ms should try their damnedest to rip other teams off in every possible trade
-Part of that is exploiting desperation
-The Cardinals might be desperate for a SP addition right now

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 4:08 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Which, if I weren't obviously so conflicted, I would be 100% in favor of a Bedard/Rasmus deal

I would almost undo all the damage from last offseason. Hell, throw in Jose Lopez and see if they’ll send Duncan.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why would we want Duncan?

Rasmus, Hoffpaiur, Garcia, Gregerson.

Then turn around and trade Yuni to LAD for whatever they’re stupid enough to give you.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 4:14 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably Andy LaRoche

and Hong Chi Kuo.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 8, 2008 4:15 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then turn around and trade Yuni to LAD for whatever they’re stupid enough to give you.

Once my rage subsides I will endorse this idea.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very well said.

The M’s would be crazy not to entertain offers now. With Sabathia and Harden off the market, that leaves a whole lot of time for GM’s to panic before the trade deadline. And Bedard is now the hot topic on all their lips.

by manyoso on Jul 8, 2008 4:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes and no.

In a fair trade I guess. But in a trade where one side rips the other off? I dunno the M’s and Cards have never made a significant trade before. I guess I can live with it because the M’s would get Rasmus, but at this point if they are mutually exclusive, the Cardinals need durability over elite talent.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You bastard.

I had 75 words all typed in and everything.

Needs MORE SUCK -- Strasberg '09!

by Double06 on Jul 8, 2008 4:06 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Matthew’s Edit for 75 words: As much as I want Bedard on the 2009 team, I’d be on the phone to St. Louis right now seeing how desperate they feel with Milwaukee landing Sabathia and Chicago nabbing Harden.

JI’s edit: Shut your stupid face

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by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:08 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I kind of like this deal for Oakland

The A’s sell high on a relatively healthy Harden and get a No. 3 starter (who eventually might look like a No. 2 starter in a pitcher’s park), two major league ready hitters, and an offensive-oriented catching prospect, none of whom are arbitration eligible yet.

by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:13 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm with you

It looks like we may be alone.

They sell high on Harden AND Gaudin, and buy low on Donaldson, Gallagher (kind of) and Patterson.
They win on the money and on durability. They really don’t need Patterson, but that’s the only thing I’m not really getting from the A’s point of view.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, and Murton would instantly become, what, the 5th best hitter on the M's

How bad is Patterson’s defense at 2B? Mark Ellis is a free agent at the end of the year.

by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:23 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

5th? Did Murton run over your dog or something?

Patterson would be at least that, Murton would be in the 3 range, I’d think. Or higher.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:25 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

4th or 5th is probably a good bet

Safeco would hurt Murton. Ichiro, Raul, Beltre and probably Clement are good bets to outhit Murton.

by MFAN on Jul 8, 2008 4:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Clement WILL be a better hitter

he’s not right now.
And I’m with JI, in a neutral park, Murton would be close to those guys.
Again though, we’re quibbling about whether he’s 3rd, 4th or 5th on the M’s. And he’s something of a throw-in here.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:46 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eh

He’s not the ‘main’ guy they’re getting back, is a decent contact hitter with gap power.
The A’s now get a bargain replacement for Ellis, or a bargain bench bat that’d actually be useful.

The walk rate’s a concern all right, I just don’t think it’s a deal breaker.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This year might be a case of wheel spinning the second time through the PCL

In a full season at Iowa in 2007, they were 9.5% BB% and 16.5% K%. He is going to walk less than average, which is a concern, but he has a good enough bat and speed to make his living off his batting average.

by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Though I wouldn’t say they don’t need Patterson. Mark Ellis is a free agent after this season.

by Teej on Jul 8, 2008 4:43 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'd forgotten that

the deal makes even more sense now. Of course, Matthew’s pointed out Patterson doesn’t walk much, and reports on his defense are…. not flattering. But yes, they’ve got a decent fill-in now. I think Murton may be something like a fill-in for a little while too, given Cunningham’s solid year in AA.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think what strikes me is that while it's a solid overall return

it’s like getting four quarters as opposed to three dimes and a mythical 70 cent piece like say the Brewers-Indians deal.

There’s no LaPorta.

If we had just traded Erik Bedard for essentially two Jeremy Reed’s, a Feierabend and a Greg Halman or something would I be happy? It might be a decent enough return as a package, but I’d be looking over it going “that’s it?” It wouldn’t excite me.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 4:52 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well put.

There’s no stud in there, but they traded a great but hugely injury-prone pitcher and an OK pitcher for a collection of pretty good talent. It’s not a flashy return, but it’s pretty deep.

by Teej on Jul 8, 2008 4:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

People are drawn to impact players. It is somewhat akin to what Fontaine said at the meetup.

Harden, if healthy, is one of the biggest impact arms in the game.

The A’s basically just traded tons of possible reward for better risk protection. I cannot fault them for that, but it’s not sexy and that’s going to leave people underwhelmed.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 5:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And that's how Beane wins

which begs the question: do we want a similar approach in our next GM. Do we want someone unafraid to trade a guy like Lopez right now (while he’s hot) ?

by johnbai on Jul 9, 2008 4:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gallagher is a much better pitcher than Feierabend

but I agree with the point that there is no LaPorta-like talent.

by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 5:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Harden is a much bigger question mark than Bedard

He’s a great talent… but will he give out to injuries before he can give you much of it? That undercuts his value.

by Gomez on Jul 8, 2008 6:16 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Throwing him in to an already rather poor deal

does not suggest to me that the A’s sold high on Gaudin.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 8, 2008 4:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, yeah.

But in terms of talent received, it’s a decent return.

by acblue on Jul 8, 2008 4:27 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I take this back

it’s similar, but not as bad

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:48 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm an A's fan

the way I see it is: the A’s not showing any interest in Bonds, while continuing to have DFA on the roster, while having a mediocre offense that struggles to score runs, is a much bigger white flag than trading a very injury prone pitcher and another ok pitcher for prospects.

My first reaction to this trade was: meh, *shrug *. I freely concede that I gave up on Harden long ago, and his performances this season haven’t really changed my mind. Even when healthy, there have been injury concerns, the “dead arm”, the strained subscapularis, etc. I also have never been all that impressed by Gaudin, unlike many on AN.The more I think about it, the more I like the trade.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 4:22 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AN is plenty pissed off...

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Jul 8, 2008 5:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We don't yell.

We seethe.

"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Jul 8, 2008 5:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, we yell.

Go back to the gamethread with Beltran sliding into Felix.

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 8, 2008 6:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, you're from AN.

Disregard my comment.

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 8, 2008 6:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry...should've clarified that.

(visiting from AN)

"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL

by oblique on Jul 9, 2008 7:07 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Zackly

the A’s fan base knows exactly what the deal is… this is nothing compared to losing Giambi, Tejada or Mulder/Hudson back to back.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's a difference when that happens in the offseason

then when it happens when you have a legitimate shot at the PS in July.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True, and yet

the A’s made those deadline deals in the offseason following campaigns of 104, 94 and 86 wins, respectively.
I would imagine Oak. fans were pretty geared up for a run at the pennant when they heard about these deals.

They clearly had a better shot in 2002 (with Giambi), than they do in 2008 (with Harden).

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's the point in pulling the plug

in the offseason after you win 104 fucking games?

I don’t get A’s fans, and I’m not one of them. But again, I think the protestations that THIS is somehow beyond the pale while letting everyone else walk/trading Hudson/Mulder wasn’t is questionable.

I take your point – it’s a really good point – but we’re talking about the A’s here. This is not out of character.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not that surprised.

The difference is pretty easy to see, you’re much more certain of your PS odds on July 8 then you are in November.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:53 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yay

My least favorite pitcher traded to my least favorite NL team.

Aside from the headache, my girlfriend treating me like dirt, and a hot room…this day has been solid.

by Slica on Jul 8, 2008 4:19 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

via Churchill:
I emailed an A’s scout who was very involved in the Harden talks with STL and Chicago, and he said the Cards were willing to trade Rasmus in a deal for Harden, but wanted Ryan Sweeney coming back with Harden.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 5:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Harden stays relatively healthy

Then this is complete rapeage for the Cubs. Of course, that is a gigantic IF. The A’s aren’t far off of a wildcard berth, this seems to be a move that will only hurt their chances this season. I like Gallagher and Murton, but give me a break.

A’s fans should be up in arms.

by marinator on Jul 8, 2008 4:56 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not really

I was actually stoked about the trade. I figured Freddies best days were well behind him, and liked what we received. Of course none of that really panned out, but that is hindsight.

It doesn’t at all seem that Hardens best days are behind him, and the haul gotten for him and Gaudin was mediocre at best.

by marinator on Jul 8, 2008 5:06 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's only true

if you assume you have as much information as the GMs involved.

Given that health is such a HUGE issue with regards to Harden, and that AFAIK, no one posting here is on the A’s training or medical staff, why would you assume that you have the same information as Beane or Hendry?

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jul 9, 2008 2:21 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gallagher vs Harden

Just for the sake of argument, let’s say Gallagaher’s a true talent 5.00 RA/9 guy right now, and he’ll give you 200 innings a year. That means he’ll allow about 111 runs per season.

Now, let’s say Harden’s a 3.50 RA/9 guy right now, and he’ll give you 100 innings a year. That means he’ll give up 39 runs in half a season.

That puts the gap at about 70 runs and 100 innings. If Harden’s replacement is a true talent 6.4 RA/9 guy, then Harden/Gallagher is dead even in terms of run prevention over a full season. 6.4 RA/9 is worse than replacement level, though, and the A’s are pretty smart, so let’s assume their Harden replacement was a 5.5 RA/9 guy. That guy would give up about 61 runs over the remaining 100 innings.

So, Gallagher is 111 RA per 200 innings, and Harden/Harden Replacement is 100 RA per 200 innings.

The difference is 11 runs per full season, or about one win. Yep, one win.

The “This Trade Is A Disaster For Oakland” crowd is missing the boat. The more I think it over, the more I think Oakland wins this deal.

by davidcameron on Jul 8, 2008 5:06 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Glad you came by, Dave.

I was beginning to think I was an idiot for liking this deal for Oakland. Not by a ton, but it’s not like they got hosed.

by Teej on Jul 8, 2008 5:10 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gallagher isn't a 200 inning guy right now though.

He’s barely clearing 5 innings per start.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jul 8, 2008 5:22 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay, 180 innings

Now the difference is 1.2 wins. The specific numbers aren’t important – it’s the point that the difference between a healthy average-ish arm and a fragile frontline arm isn’t as big as everyone thinks.

by davidcameron on Jul 8, 2008 5:26 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah,

but it’s the whole, if we make the playoffs, who do you want pitching, Harden or Gallagher thing. Assuming you can keep Harden healthy going into the playoffs. Big if obviously.

by LantermanC on Jul 8, 2008 6:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dave said it perfectly...

In no way does Oakland lose here. They sell Harden at his peak value and get three MLB-ready guys and a prospect who is no slouch. Harden’s fragility is just too high to consider this a fantastic deal for Chicago.

Oakland fans have absolutely nothing to be pissed off about.

by Devin on Jul 8, 2008 5:14 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not convinced that they blew up the season.

They gave up the most talented player, but they made their offense better and deeper, and got a solid pitcher as a replacement.

If this trade made them worse, it’s not by much.

by Teej on Jul 8, 2008 5:28 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Assuming no one else gets hurt

and that they don’t trade Ellis, Cupcakes, or anyone else?

Perhaps.

by JI on Jul 8, 2008 5:31 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay, here's what I see

Harden: great pitcher when healthy, but chronic injury risk
Gaudin: useful back of the rotation filler or bullpen fodder

Most here should already know what Matt Murton gives the A’s: an MLB ready LF with some patience and a bit of power.
Patterson: above average AAA bat, not more than doubles power, and his patience disappeared this season… meh at 2B, his primary position… does have OF experience. Probably a backup to Mark Ellis and the outfield if the A’s don’t just send him to Sacramento (unless they’re thinking of dealing Ellis….).
Gallagher: SP that misses bats and strike zones, just getting his feet wet in AAA. Was he injured this season?
Donaldson: Could be something… only in his 2nd pro season and was struggling with full season A ball when the deal went down.

I like the deal for the A’s only because Harden was such a chronic risk that he did them no good 75% of the time, even if he was gangbusters that 25% he did pitch. Gaudin is whatever because the A’s have tons of those meh AAAA SPs. And stocking up on prospects while getting an MLB ready outfielder that has shown he can produce some isn’t a bad thing. The Cubs are clearly gambling that they can keep Harden healthy, pretty funny given their current skipper and their history with top pitching prospects, but hey, I’ll give it a fair shake… and that he can get them over the hump in that clowncar Central division

by Gomez on Jul 8, 2008 6:09 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm a dumbass

Gallagher was pitching in the bigs. Well then, there you go! An MLB-capable pitcher!

by Gomez on Jul 8, 2008 6:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Didn't see this coming

Though I probably should have. Pretty standard Beane sell-high move.

If I were an A’s fan, though, this would piss me off beyond belief. Here I am waiting, salivating and waiting for Harden to bust out and pitch like he’s capable of pitching for an extended period of time, and he’s finally doing it, and it’s totally awesome to watch, and then he’s out the door. Maddening.

by chaney on Jul 9, 2008 2:50 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm fascinated

with this “good for the team” / “bad for the fan” dichotomy.

by johnbai on Jul 9, 2008 4:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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