Rich Harden --------> Cubs
by Omerta on Jul 8, 2008 3:47 PM PDT
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PrintAccording to WSCR-670 in Chicago, Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin has been traded to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and catching prospect Josh Donaldson.
Jim Hendry's got a press conference going right now.
MLB Link (better than Sun Times)
I find this to be a solid deal for both teams. Billy Beane must not think his boys can do it this year. Talk about a guy that's not afraid to pull the trigger.
Matthew's Edit for 75 words: As much as I want Bedard on the 2009 team, I'd be on the phone to St. Louis right now seeing how desperate they feel with Milwaukee landing Sabathia and Chicago nabbing Harden.
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It helps to trade players who are capable of playing 1/2 a season
Harden is truly a force of nature, but nature seems determined to keep him on the bench.
When you discount for probable playing time, I’d say the A’s did pretty well. No amazing players, but a decent haul for a (great) pitcher who hasn’t made 20 starts since 2004.
by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gaudin's no slouch either.
Funny how I really wanted the Ms to grab him from TOR off waivers back in ‘06.
Which one?
the guy who was walking the world (BRB) in 2006-7, or this newfangled control-artist Gaudin?
If his 2008 is for real, then yeah, the Cubs kicked some ass. If Beane is selling high on 2 months of great peripherals (thanks in part to a move back to the pen), then that’s something else. Tough to know.
Sean Gallagher’s a good pitcher; it’s also not like the Cubs are sending over scrubs.
2007 Gaudin was below average, but still solid and a great value.
He’s not great or anything, and I’m not marginalizing Oakland’s return, just saying Gaudin is useful.
And he would have been greatly useful in place of signing Washburn.
Fuck the heck?
I agree with MFAN, it looks like the Cubs won out on this.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 8, 2008 3:53 PM PDT reply actions
So, does this mean that the A's are throwing in the towel?
Most of those guys are MLB ready. Did they just swap pitching for hitting and stay about the same strength?
the other angels fan
I don't see how it's not throwing in the towel
Harden is far and away the best pitcher in the batch, and while his injury prone-ness is well documented, his production isn’t going to be replaced by Gallagher.
If I were an A's fan I'd be so fucking pissed.
This appears to be a complete betrayal of the fan base.
Just wait
until every prospect they got turns into solid to good players. I really like Murton.
I see
they are definitely throwing in the towel with this trade. They are still close to first, and the Angels are destined to lose some of their incredible luck this year. It seams like the A’s are always good, but will never cross that line into greatness because of Bean’s moneyball philosophy.
Until tomorrow
when the A’s announce the signing of Barry Bonds to a pro-rated $6.5 million contract with the money saved today.
by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions
If they wanted him, they could sign him for the league minimum.
Any team could.
If you're too lazy to click over, here's the AN thread
http://www.athleticsnation.com/2008/7/8/567387/a-s-trade-harden-and-gaudi
Guess what?
They hate it.
the other angels fan
Technically we do
But it gets broken a lot. If it pisses you off, you can flag it.
"Dispatch knuckleheadedness with Bond-like aplomb." –74mk
Flags > recs
they’re like secret recs, except you get to talk to the mods too
I think this is good for us...gets a lot of talent out of the market.
And there is a lot of time between now and the trading deadline.
I fucking hate you Mariners
But it also sets the talent barometer of what Bedard is worth.
Which sucks for us.
Needs MORE SUCK -- Strasberg '09!
Yeah, my point is
-The Ms shouldn’t want to trade Bedard
-The Ms should be open to listening to offers for Bedard
-The Ms should try their damnedest to rip other teams off in every possible trade
-Part of that is exploiting desperation
-The Cardinals might be desperate for a SP addition right now
Which, if I weren't obviously so conflicted, I would be 100% in favor of a Bedard/Rasmus deal
I would almost undo all the damage from last offseason. Hell, throw in Jose Lopez and see if they’ll send Duncan.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would we want Duncan?
Rasmus, Hoffpaiur, Garcia, Gregerson.
Then turn around and trade Yuni to LAD for whatever they’re stupid enough to give you.
Then turn around and trade Yuni to LAD for whatever they’re stupid enough to give you.
Once my rage subsides I will endorse this idea.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
As a resident Cardinals and Mariners fan....
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAno.
Throw Felix in and maybe.
No please
they can have Luis Valbuena though
They can have Luis Valbuena instead of Loafie
The fans of Jose Lopez vote NO on any trade involving Loafie!
Valbuena wears high socks....Loafie can go away.
I fucking hate you Mariners
Very well said.
The M’s would be crazy not to entertain offers now. With Sabathia and Harden off the market, that leaves a whole lot of time for GM’s to panic before the trade deadline. And Bedard is now the hot topic on all their lips.
Yes and no.
In a fair trade I guess. But in a trade where one side rips the other off? I dunno the M’s and Cards have never made a significant trade before. I guess I can live with it because the M’s would get Rasmus, but at this point if they are mutually exclusive, the Cardinals need durability over elite talent.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
You bastard.
I had 75 words all typed in and everything.
Needs MORE SUCK -- Strasberg '09!
Matthew’s Edit for 75 words: As much as I want Bedard on the 2009 team, I’d be on the phone to St. Louis right now seeing how desperate they feel with Milwaukee landing Sabathia and Chicago nabbing Harden.
JI’s edit: Shut your stupid face
Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux Wolf/Maddux
I kind of like this deal for Oakland
The A’s sell high on a relatively healthy Harden and get a No. 3 starter (who eventually might look like a No. 2 starter in a pitcher’s park), two major league ready hitters, and an offensive-oriented catching prospect, none of whom are arbitration eligible yet.
I'm with you
It looks like we may be alone.
They sell high on Harden AND Gaudin, and buy low on Donaldson, Gallagher (kind of) and Patterson.
They win on the money and on durability. They really don’t need Patterson, but that’s the only thing I’m not really getting from the A’s point of view.
Yeah, and Murton would instantly become, what, the 5th best hitter on the M's
How bad is Patterson’s defense at 2B? Mark Ellis is a free agent at the end of the year.
by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
5th? Did Murton run over your dog or something?
Patterson would be at least that, Murton would be in the 3 range, I’d think. Or higher.
4th or 5th is probably a good bet
Safeco would hurt Murton. Ichiro, Raul, Beltre and probably Clement are good bets to outhit Murton.
Clement WILL be a better hitter
he’s not right now.
And I’m with JI, in a neutral park, Murton would be close to those guys.
Again though, we’re quibbling about whether he’s 3rd, 4th or 5th on the M’s. And he’s something of a throw-in here.
Eh
He’s not the ‘main’ guy they’re getting back, is a decent contact hitter with gap power.
The A’s now get a bargain replacement for Ellis, or a bargain bench bat that’d actually be useful.
The walk rate’s a concern all right, I just don’t think it’s a deal breaker.
This year might be a case of wheel spinning the second time through the PCL
In a full season at Iowa in 2007, they were 9.5% BB% and 16.5% K%. He is going to walk less than average, which is a concern, but he has a good enough bat and speed to make his living off his batting average.
by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
Though I wouldn’t say they don’t need Patterson. Mark Ellis is a free agent after this season.
Yeah, I'd forgotten that
the deal makes even more sense now. Of course, Matthew’s pointed out Patterson doesn’t walk much, and reports on his defense are…. not flattering. But yes, they’ve got a decent fill-in now. I think Murton may be something like a fill-in for a little while too, given Cunningham’s solid year in AA.
I think what strikes me is that while it's a solid overall return
it’s like getting four quarters as opposed to three dimes and a mythical 70 cent piece like say the Brewers-Indians deal.
There’s no LaPorta.
If we had just traded Erik Bedard for essentially two Jeremy Reed’s, a Feierabend and a Greg Halman or something would I be happy? It might be a decent enough return as a package, but I’d be looking over it going “that’s it?” It wouldn’t excite me.
Well put.
There’s no stud in there, but they traded a great but hugely injury-prone pitcher and an OK pitcher for a collection of pretty good talent. It’s not a flashy return, but it’s pretty deep.
People are drawn to impact players. It is somewhat akin to what Fontaine said at the meetup.
Harden, if healthy, is one of the biggest impact arms in the game.
The A’s basically just traded tons of possible reward for better risk protection. I cannot fault them for that, but it’s not sexy and that’s going to leave people underwhelmed.
And that's how Beane wins
which begs the question: do we want a similar approach in our next GM. Do we want someone unafraid to trade a guy like Lopez right now (while he’s hot) ?
Gallagher is a much better pitcher than Feierabend
but I agree with the point that there is no LaPorta-like talent.
by G_ on Jul 8, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Harden is a much bigger question mark than Bedard
He’s a great talent… but will he give out to injuries before he can give you much of it? That undercuts his value.
Throwing him in to an already rather poor deal
does not suggest to me that the A’s sold high on Gaudin.
The A's colors are green and gold.
Yeah, I don't think it;s a bad deal at all.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 8, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yeah.
But in terms of talent received, it’s a decent return.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 8, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Again, they can't really act surprised or something
this is part and parcel of being an A’s fan.
This is as bad as when the White Sox waived the red flag 10 years ago.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm an A's fan
the way I see it is: the A’s not showing any interest in Bonds, while continuing to have DFA on the roster, while having a mediocre offense that struggles to score runs, is a much bigger white flag than trading a very injury prone pitcher and another ok pitcher for prospects.
My first reaction to this trade was: meh, *shrug *. I freely concede that I gave up on Harden long ago, and his performances this season haven’t really changed my mind. Even when healthy, there have been injury concerns, the “dead arm”, the strained subscapularis, etc. I also have never been all that impressed by Gaudin, unlike many on AN.The more I think about it, the more I like the trade.
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
We don't yell.
We seethe.
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Sorry...should've clarified that.
(visiting from AN)
"God doesn't pay attention to your cute little hypotheticals." -- Jeff from LL
Zackly
the A’s fan base knows exactly what the deal is… this is nothing compared to losing Giambi, Tejada or Mulder/Hudson back to back.
There's a difference when that happens in the offseason
then when it happens when you have a legitimate shot at the PS in July.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
True, and yet
the A’s made those deadline deals in the offseason following campaigns of 104, 94 and 86 wins, respectively.
I would imagine Oak. fans were pretty geared up for a run at the pennant when they heard about these deals.
They clearly had a better shot in 2002 (with Giambi), than they do in 2008 (with Harden).
What the hell is the point of even playing the games when you're going to pull the plug at 3.5 games back?
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
What's the point in pulling the plug
in the offseason after you win 104 fucking games?
I don’t get A’s fans, and I’m not one of them. But again, I think the protestations that THIS is somehow beyond the pale while letting everyone else walk/trading Hudson/Mulder wasn’t is questionable.
I take your point – it’s a really good point – but we’re talking about the A’s here. This is not out of character.
I'm not that surprised.
The difference is pretty easy to see, you’re much more certain of your PS odds on July 8 then you are in November.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Yay
My least favorite pitcher traded to my least favorite NL team.
Aside from the headache, my girlfriend treating me like dirt, and a hot room…this day has been solid.
How is Harden your least favorite pitcher?
He seems like a nice guy. And it’s hard to dislike a guy who can’t stay healthy.
Except the guy who designed the Kingdome
and watched the city blow up a perfectly good stadium
What's there to guarantee Harden's shoulder won't explode by the end of July?
I certainly wouldn’t throw in anyone I’d miss.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
via Churchill:
I emailed an A’s scout who was very involved in the Harden talks with STL and Chicago, and he said the Cards were willing to trade Rasmus in a deal for Harden, but wanted Ryan Sweeney coming back with Harden.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions
If Harden stays relatively healthy
Then this is complete rapeage for the Cubs. Of course, that is a gigantic IF. The A’s aren’t far off of a wildcard berth, this seems to be a move that will only hurt their chances this season. I like Gallagher and Murton, but give me a break.
A’s fans should be up in arms.
Not really
I was actually stoked about the trade. I figured Freddies best days were well behind him, and liked what we received. Of course none of that really panned out, but that is hindsight.
It doesn’t at all seem that Hardens best days are behind him, and the haul gotten for him and Gaudin was mediocre at best.
Isn't what you just said proof that evaluating trades in hindsight is stupid?
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 8, 2008 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm determining that Harden will go on to have a somewhat healthy career
That is what I believe, and he has the stuff to be potentially the best starter in baseball. I’ll take 150 innings/year of that over all 4 of those other guys any day of the week.
That's only true
if you assume you have as much information as the GMs involved.
Given that health is such a HUGE issue with regards to Harden, and that AFAIK, no one posting here is on the A’s training or medical staff, why would you assume that you have the same information as Beane or Hendry?
ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524
Gallagher vs Harden
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say Gallagaher’s a true talent 5.00 RA/9 guy right now, and he’ll give you 200 innings a year. That means he’ll allow about 111 runs per season.
Now, let’s say Harden’s a 3.50 RA/9 guy right now, and he’ll give you 100 innings a year. That means he’ll give up 39 runs in half a season.
That puts the gap at about 70 runs and 100 innings. If Harden’s replacement is a true talent 6.4 RA/9 guy, then Harden/Gallagher is dead even in terms of run prevention over a full season. 6.4 RA/9 is worse than replacement level, though, and the A’s are pretty smart, so let’s assume their Harden replacement was a 5.5 RA/9 guy. That guy would give up about 61 runs over the remaining 100 innings.
So, Gallagher is 111 RA per 200 innings, and Harden/Harden Replacement is 100 RA per 200 innings.
The difference is 11 runs per full season, or about one win. Yep, one win.
The “This Trade Is A Disaster For Oakland” crowd is missing the boat. The more I think it over, the more I think Oakland wins this deal.
Glad you came by, Dave.
I was beginning to think I was an idiot for liking this deal for Oakland. Not by a ton, but it’s not like they got hosed.
Gallagher isn't a 200 inning guy right now though.
He’s barely clearing 5 innings per start.
~Till the Halo burns out...
I can see Dave's point being that Gallagher is only 23
Although Gaudin is no slouch himself. He’s a good #4 or 5 guy. Better than our 4 or 5 guys atm.
Okay, 180 innings
Now the difference is 1.2 wins. The specific numbers aren’t important – it’s the point that the difference between a healthy average-ish arm and a fragile frontline arm isn’t as big as everyone thinks.
Yeah,
but it’s the whole, if we make the playoffs, who do you want pitching, Harden or Gallagher thing. Assuming you can keep Harden healthy going into the playoffs. Big if obviously.
Dave said it perfectly...
In no way does Oakland lose here. They sell Harden at his peak value and get three MLB-ready guys and a prospect who is no slouch. Harden’s fragility is just too high to consider this a fantastic deal for Chicago.
Oakland fans have absolutely nothing to be pissed off about.
...other than the fact they just blew up the season in the middle of a pennant race.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not convinced that they blew up the season.
They gave up the most talented player, but they made their offense better and deeper, and got a solid pitcher as a replacement.
If this trade made them worse, it’s not by much.
Assuming no one else gets hurt
and that they don’t trade Ellis, Cupcakes, or anyone else?
Perhaps.
by JI on Jul 8, 2008 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Regression is something that we're terrified of here
regression will cost us Stephen Strasburg.
Let me point out that only two of the top twelve 2008 MLB draft picks have chosen to
sign with the teams that drafted them since the June 5th draft.
Let me point out that how the fuck is this relevant
by Graham MacAree on Jul 9, 2008 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions
It was related to the draft, so it was... marginally relevant
although “marginally” is reallllly stretching it
% of draft picks signed in the first month since the draft?
That’s roughly as relevant to the Strasburg discussion as the Mariners are to the NL East race.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 9, 2008 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't a lot of them sign on the last day?
I thought this happened after the sign by date moved up from the following Spring (ending the draft and follow procedure) to mid-August. I vaguely remember Aumont did that last year.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 9, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
When it's that small it looks like he's about to give head
I fucking hate you Mariners
Okay, here's what I see
Harden: great pitcher when healthy, but chronic injury risk
Gaudin: useful back of the rotation filler or bullpen fodder
Most here should already know what Matt Murton gives the A’s: an MLB ready LF with some patience and a bit of power.
Patterson: above average AAA bat, not more than doubles power, and his patience disappeared this season… meh at 2B, his primary position… does have OF experience. Probably a backup to Mark Ellis and the outfield if the A’s don’t just send him to Sacramento (unless they’re thinking of dealing Ellis….).
Gallagher: SP that misses bats and strike zones, just getting his feet wet in AAA. Was he injured this season?
Donaldson: Could be something… only in his 2nd pro season and was struggling with full season A ball when the deal went down.
I like the deal for the A’s only because Harden was such a chronic risk that he did them no good 75% of the time, even if he was gangbusters that 25% he did pitch. Gaudin is whatever because the A’s have tons of those meh AAAA SPs. And stocking up on prospects while getting an MLB ready outfielder that has shown he can produce some isn’t a bad thing. The Cubs are clearly gambling that they can keep Harden healthy, pretty funny given their current skipper and their history with top pitching prospects, but hey, I’ll give it a fair shake… and that he can get them over the hump in that clowncar Central division
Didn't see this coming
Though I probably should have. Pretty standard Beane sell-high move.
If I were an A’s fan, though, this would piss me off beyond belief. Here I am waiting, salivating and waiting for Harden to bust out and pitch like he’s capable of pitching for an extended period of time, and he’s finally doing it, and it’s totally awesome to watch, and then he’s out the door. Maddening.
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