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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

Seattle: 35-53
Athletics: 47-41

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Dana Eveland*
Game 2: Carlos Silva vs Justin Duchscherer
Game 3: Miguel Batista vs Joe Blanton
Game 4: R.A. Dickey vs Greg Smith*

This sucks. For Strasburg and pure enjoyment reasons, I was really hoping to see Rich Harden face us. Oh well, it's been awhile since we've faced the A's so lets do a recap on the four pitchers that we are actually facing, now with more sample size!

Dana Eveland looks like a decent pitcher on the surface, but closer examination reveals some potentially big problems. For one, he's wild. Miguel Batista wild. 41% of his pitches thrown end up as balls (Miguel's at 41.7%). That's a recipe for big time walk rates in the future. Furthermore his swinging strike rate is under 6%, a poor sign for future K rates. He's survived so well this far because of a microscopic homerun rate, partly due to a low flyball rate, but it's not all roses there and many of those missing flyballs are biting him in the form of line drives.

.224 is what Duchscherer's BABIP currently stands at which gives you a primary indication why his ERA is around 3. Nevertheless, he manages to run a fairly average pitch profile. He's also benefited from a homerun rate about half what it should be so going forward, he seems like a roughly average AL SP to me.

Blanton has regressed quite a bit this year, missing bats now just 5.5% of the time, seeing his percentage of balls thrown jump two points and his groundballs falter a bit. It adds up to a 4.58 tRA over the 4.16 from last year.

Greg Smith is sort of Dana Eveland-lite. He's quite wild as well at 39.7%, but at least it's under 40% and he can actually miss bats 7.4% of the time. Smith represents the best stuff the Ms will have to face this series. The AL average SP misses bats 7.6% of the time. Oakland has built a pitching staff succeeding a lot thanks to a league best BABIP (good fielders) and a league lowest 8% HR/FB rate. That they have a staff striking out over 7 batters per game when these are four of their starters speaks to how insane Rich Harden is (nearly 30% K rate).

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Kurt Suzuki
1 Daric Barton*
2 Mark Ellis
3 Jack Hannahan*
S Donnie Murphy
L Jack Cust*
C Carlos Gonzalez*/Rajai Davis
R Ryan Sweeney*
D Wes Bankston

To be honest, I have no clue what they're going to do with the outfield and DH. I tried to piece together something based on their recent lineups and moves, but yeesh. The A's have had a reputation for poor offense this year, but in reality it was mostly just one bad month, May.

The A's scored 4.66 runs per game up May 1st and have scored 4.52 runs per game since June 1st, neither bad numbers. It's just that awful stretch in May, also their only losing month so far, when they scored under 4 runs a game. Bottom line, though strikeout prone, this is not a total pushover offense.

CONTEXT

Jeff Clement nearly single-handedly wins a game and is rewarded with a day off that would have held if it hadn't gone 15 innings.

Erik Bedard, with a meaningless season stretching in front of him and the All Star Break nears, feels that trying to pitch through shoulder soreness would be stupid. In response, several people question his toughness.

There were several stupid things about this weekend. There were some awesome parts as well. The aforementioned Clement homeruns. Brandon Morrow being his 2008 self. Another couple days marked off the Sean Green Arm Explosion Office Pool (tough luck BrianL), and, oh yeah:

Bahahahahahahahahahaha. Awesome.

Jamie Burke: 5.6% missed bat rate. Carlos Silva, 4.5%.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Anchor Steam
Anchor Brewing Company. San Francisco, CA

Amber color with large frothy head and vanilla tones. Finished very smoothly. Not much of an aroma but a solid taste and finish. Not the greatest beer ever, but one of my favorites on summer days.

0 recs  |  Comment 187 comments

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There's a chance, but again, I go by the official probables list.

Dickey could also start Wednesday in place of Tits were Felix to get the nod for Thursday.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So.... how the hell is Oak's outfield so amazing?

According to THT, an OF that gives Jack Cust significant playing time is either #1 or #2 in OF defense this year.
Wha?

Yeah, OK, Carlos Gonzalez and, to a somewhat lesser extent Ryan Sweeney, have been lights out in CF. So – two questions:
1) How much regression to the mean should we expect from OAK’s OF (or at least OAK’s CFs)? We don’t have a lot to go on, esp. for Gonzalez, but I think the presumption should be that neither guy is Willie Mays.

2) To what degree can a team ‘play around’ a defensive black hole? Seems like the answer is: a metric fuck ton. The two best defensive OF’s routinely start Manny Ramirez and Jack Cust.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, I meant best in the AL

StL’s is close to BOS/OAK, but the best in MLB seems to be a race between the Cubs/Pads/Giants.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jim Edmonds, man, Jim Edmonds

The metrics respect his former self.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jul 7, 2008 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah I was being sarcastic, since Edmonds has played for the Cubs and Pads this year

and hence the “former self”—his current self should not be starting in centerfield for any team, which the at least the Padres apparently realized.

"Behind both goals were banners bearing the word 'Calamity' while another carried the warning: 'You will drown in the Bosphorous.'"--Threats made by Turkish soccer fans to the British from a match in 2003. Tribute to their miraculous run in Euro 2008.

RIP Tim Russert, quintessential Buffalonian.

by Cutthemullet on Jul 7, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know

I’m suspicious of individual metrics

by JI on Jul 7, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worth investigating, though I'm not sure if the RZR figures for infield and outfield have a park adjustment built in

which, if not, would be important for Boston and Oakland (and show just how bad our OF really is).

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shouldn't a Ibanez/Reed/Ichiro OF be about average?

Ichiro’s awesomeness in RF balances out Ibanez in LF and Reed is about average?

by Jed MC on Jul 7, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, it'd be important for BOS most of all

but it should pull their RZR down. If BOS is doing this well without a park adjustment….wow.

Still, I can’t see why even a historically awful LF would impact our team DER/outfield RZR so much, when Cust (by any measure even worse than Ibanez) doesn’t seem to drag down Oakland’s.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So your argument is that 2 months of Brad Wilkerson

is worth what, 15 plays below average? 20?
Put a ballpark number around how bad you think Wilkerson or wilk/wlad were.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Since we're, what, 39 runs below average...

Ibanez is probably 15 of that and Wilk/Wlad are 8? I don’t know for sure but that’s why our figures are still in the shitter.

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Jul 7, 2008 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, if this is so easy, why are the A's good?

Is Emil Brown really a hall-of-fame defender in right?

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know.

I was just giving a reason why we’re still god awful for the season. I didn’t claim to be an expert on UZR. I don’t have the info in front of me.

Were I to make a guess, it would be either a flaw in the system or that Emil Brown is average rather than below average.It also helps that Cust has been at DH more often lately and that Carlos Gonzalez appears to be awesome.

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Jul 8, 2008 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need to lose

Oakland needs to take the WC and leave Boston at home.

by JI on Jul 7, 2008 11:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

In San Antonio on Saturday, I saw three A's tees/jerseys.

Is this normal? Why aren’t they cheering the Astros, or the Rangers if they need an AL team?

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 7, 2008 11:10 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Because rooting for the A's is like being in a secret club.

It makes you cool.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 7, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

< gives secret handshake >

"The Athletics at Fremont" is pretty bad

by ArakSOT on Jul 7, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

< wears A's jersey in Cambridge >

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 7, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're out.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 7, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It must be said:

One could throw this at newfangled Rays fans too.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, bandwagoners can be cautious all right

I’m talking about St. Pete residents. Look, I had every reason to be cautious about being an M’s fan, growing up with 100-loss seasons, George Argyros and constant threats of moving the team. If Seattle can drag 15,000 casual fans to the park every night, so can anyone. We were shit on for longer!

The A’s thing was always weirder given the size/impact of AN, but we may be moving in that direction with the Rays: plenty of support in places nowhere near Tampa (the biggest Rays fan I’ve ever met/only Rays fan I’ve ever met lives in Glasgow), middling gates, 50/50 home fans/road fans splits. This isn’t a bad thing, and it really WOULD be more like a secret club, but it’s cases like these where you see how important casual fans are… ‘smart’ fans often treat them as the enemy, when they’re really quite valuable. Use your favorite livestock analogy here.

by marc w on Jul 7, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's lots of military in the Bay area,

could be people who used to be stationed there. That’s how a friend of mine became an A’s fan (his Dad was stationed in Oakland).

AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...

by Thingray on Jul 7, 2008 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Weirdest place I've met an A's fan: internet cafe in Cairo International Airport.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 7, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I googled "stat ray"

And there’s a picture of a baby being X-Rayed. I’m not sure what that means.

I traded Matt Kemp and Rich Harden for Erik Bedard

by Frosty Raptor on Jul 7, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I make this too much a habit, but:

”.224 is what Duchscherer’s BABIP currently stands at which gives you a primary indication why his ERA is around 3. Nevertheless, he manages to run a fairly average pitch profile. He’s also benefited from a homerun rate about half what it should be so going forward, he seems like a roughly average AL SP to me.”

Duscherer’s current ERA = 1.96. Leading the AL I might add. What he’s done to deserve it is, of course, a whole nother story.

*Visiting Angels fan* Never give up, never surrender!

by TheOptimist on Jul 7, 2008 11:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The general idea is actually the opposite,

that GB pitchers have higher HR/FB% because when they do give up FBs, they’re usually meatballs.

However, I’ve looked into it on a couple occaisions and have found:
-Little year to year correlation in HR/FB% suggesting it’s highly regressible.
-Zero statistically significant evidence that HR/FB% and GB% are correlated.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Normalize Duchscherer's ERA and it's low-to-mid 3s

I’d say that’s just a touch better than league-average.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 7, 2008 2:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Matthew, you know I like you, but you're being a dick.

Why not ask, “My dear Paul, could you clarify what you mean by ‘normaize’?”

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 7, 2008 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He means that we need to harvest the northern crop of corn products

that’s what “normaize” meant to me at least =)

I understood Paul’s post as just meaning that if you normalize his HR/FB and BABIP, all of a sudden his ERA will normalize to ~league average or a little better as well.

by seattlebruin on Jul 7, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my first impression as well, but it's wrong.

If you adjust his BABIP and HR/FB rate to league average, you get an ERA over 4.

Hence, I have no idea what he meant by “normalize ERA”. Sorry if my tone was too harsh, but my patience on things like this has been greatly whittled down by constantly trying to deal with people who misrepresent stats. Which I’m not saying Paul is intentionally doing here, but since he doesn’t state where he gets these numbers from and my own numbers state conclusions contrary to his assertion, I’m left with nothing else to say.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing systematic...

just eyeballing the numbers. Doubling his home run rate is about an extra 8 runs. Raising his BABIP to his career average is about an extra 12 hits. Your average hit is half a run or so. Another 17 hits is 17 less outs, which probably adds a couple of runs. So his ERA should probably be about 60% higher than it is.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 7, 2008 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is exactly what I meant.

Doubling his HR rate adds 7 runs and adjusting the BABIP to league level adds another 14.4 runs using Tango’s .8 runs per missed play.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any hints?

What should it be?

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a sample size thing.

0.8 works for average, but it can obviously be very off when dealing with 20 some odd plays such as here.

What you would want to do is actually go through and calculate the actual runs saved from the lower BABIP. However, since it is a small sample, you would then have to regress it 99% toward the league mean, which is 0.8.

In other words, Duch’s runs saved figure from the low BABIP is

0.8 * missing hits +/- a pretty wide margin

because we’re dealing with small samples. Hopefully, people here intrinsically understand this.

by Matthew on Jul 8, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd guess PaulThomas is looking at FIP.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 7, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dudes

I mean this in a relatively good natured way, but screw you. I know what tRA is, I know what regression to the mean is, I know batting average sucks, and—ok, let’s just cut to the chase here—I’m not a fucking moron, and your immediate assumption that I am is both asinine and ridiculous.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Jul 7, 2008 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way, Ichiro is still awesome

On going to the All-Star game in New York:

“Usually I go there as an opponent,” Ichiro, 34, said of the venerable New York ballpark through an interpreter. “I usually get booed when I go over there by the fans. But this time I’m not going there as an opponent, so I guess part of me in a special way is kind of disappointed that I don’t get to enjoy being booed by them.”

and

Ichiro said he would think about it if asked to take part in the Home Run Derby.

Per the Seattle Times.

by BrianL on Jul 7, 2008 2:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

re: Home Run Derby

Oh my God, that be so fucking awesome.

Powerswing on display for the entire nation to see? Yes, please.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 7, 2008 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I worry that he would ruin his second half swing a la Bobby Abreu.

But yes, awesome. And Jamie Burke should be the BP tosser.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

More rational than that.

Nothing in my life is less rational than my worry/love for Felix.

by Matthew on Jul 7, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I yearn for a championship as well

I have come to terms with the fact that it will most likely be a Final Four victory

by seattlebruin on Jul 7, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm cautiously optimistic about this season.

If Courtney Taylor steps up like I think he will, I really believe that this is a better team than the one we had in ‘05.

by BrianL on Jul 7, 2008 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Hutch = worse team

We’ll never see the like of that again – peak years from the left guard and left tackle.
I just want to see how the RB rotation is going to work. It could be awesome, or it could be a big distraction.

by marc w on Jul 8, 2008 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes. Liking Jim Edmonds is wrong.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 7, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wont

He does it everyday.

by Robert on Jul 7, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just tell Ichiro:

“If I ever saw myself saying I’m excited going to watch the Home Run Derby, I’d punch myself in the face, because I’m lying…unless you’re in it, Ichiro.”

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 7, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jose Lopez is on pace for 199.7 hits

I’ll put down a $1 bet right now to anyone that he gets to 190, and I’ll take 200 as well for 1.5:1 odds

by seattlebruin on Jul 7, 2008 3:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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