Contend In '09: What We've Got
With the Mariners spending yet another season trying to pull themselves out of the crapper, there's been a developing groundswell of arguments that they need to tear everything down and rebuild. "Trying to win now was a giant mistake," people say. "This organization badly needs to start from scratch, because the roster in place is far too flawed to ever compete."
It's easy to understand where they're coming from. This is a bad team. This is the fourth bad team we've been forced to watch in the last five years, and after so many seasons of having the front office shuffle things around in an effort to create the right spark, people are getting fed up. And people who're getting fed up want to see big sweeping changes, because generally speaking, that's the most effective way of leaving a disappointing present day behind. If the now sucks, why try to build off of it? Better to take it apart and reassemble with newer parts, right?
Here's the thing: these guys were expected to contend for a reason. And while a lot has clearly gone wrong, I still think the roster has enough talent to fill out the bulk of a 2009 contender. So what follows is my list of guys in the organization who I think have it in them to hold significant roles and help this team make a push for the playoffs.
But first:
Constraints/Assumptions
-Miguel Batista is untradeable
-Carlos Silva is untradeable
-Kenji Johjima is not untradeable but sticks around anyway
-the team won't try to deal Yuni
-Jarrod Washburn is tradeable and is traded
-Ichiro stays in right because God dammit McLaren
Now then. On with it.
Infield
Jeff Clement: Ignore the small sample size struggles at the plate; Clement's going to hit, and he's going to hit pretty well. And while his defense is a concern, (1) it's light years ahead of where it used to be, and (2) there are worse defensive catchers holding down regular jobs right now. Johjima extension or not, the team's smartest course of action would be keeping Clement behind the dish where he holds the most value.
Kenji Johjima: Nothing we can really do about this, I don't think. There are worse backup catchers.
Jose Lopez: Lopez seems to have turned himself into a decent hitter for his position, and with average/plus defense and a low cost, he's a valuable asset. He'll only turn 25 in November, so there's also still a fair bit of growth potential left in his bat.
Yuniesky Betancourt: Yuni's defense sucks and his offense hasn't really progressed at all, but then almost to a man the American League has terrible shortstops, so whatever. The team could probably find somewhere to trade him if it looked hard enough, but for purposes of this post, I'm taking the safest route and assuming that won't happen.
Adrian Beltre: Stud.
Outfield
Ichiro: Why bother writing anything? We all know what Ichiro brings to the table every single day. I'm not wild about the switch back to right, but I'll do my best to overlook that and focus on how he's a nice building block for a strong defensive outfield, which this team badly needs.
Jeremy Reed: I wrote Reed off. I wrote him off completely and was prepared to let someone else take him off our hands for nothing. So what does he do but go and turn himself into a useful player? Reed turned 27 a few weeks ago and will spend the next couple seasons in the middle of his physical prime, a prime during which I think he could hit something like .270/.330/.400 with reasonable defense and a low low cost. In center, that's a value. If you think about it, Reed potentially rebuilding himself a Major League career may be an even bigger 2008 bright spot than the emergence of Brandon Morrow. By many indications, he seems to have gone from backup outfielder to legitimate regular, and the team should be thrilled that a free everyday center fielder may have just fallen back into its lap.
Starting Rotation
Felix: Megastud.
Erik Bedard: There's a lot of talk out there about how Bedard might be back on the market, but to me, trading him away would be a sign that the front office doesn't intend to compete next year, because as of this writing he's a pretty big piece of the hypothetical puzzle. Bedard's a great pitcher when he's healthy and a good pitcher when he's a little bit broken, easily one of the top #2's in the league. This team stands a better chance of competing next year with him than they do with whatever they could get in return.
Carlos Silva: Nothing we can do about this one, either, but hey, he's not terrible. He just isn't very good. We know the contract sucks. Might as well just focus on his contribution, and his contribution should be similar to that of a #4 starter.
Brandon Morrow, RRS, or RA Dickey: I think any one of these three would be perfectly capable of bringing up the rear. They all have their flaws - Morrow doesn't really have a pitch against lefties, RRS barely has any stuff, and Dickey's just a regular dude with an irregular pitch - but good luck finding a #5 who doesn't have anything wrong with him. Being a #5 starter isn't that hard. You basically just have to throw 5-6 innings without giving up more than 3-4 runs. A lot of people can do that. These people could do that for cheap. I don't want two of them in the rotation for depth purposes, but one should be no problem.
Bullpen
JJ Putz: Won't ever be as awesome as he was in 2006, but there's little reason to think he won't be effective. Should still be a fine closer.
Brandon Morrow, RRS, or RA Dickey: This is where you put the two who miss out on the #5 slot. We know that Morrow's basically unhittable as a one-inning atom bomb of awesome. We know that RRS can come up big against lefties. And we know that Dickey can soak up multiple innings without embarrassing himself. All of those things have value, so no matter which way the three go in this hypothetical, they're still doing some good.
Miguel Batista: >:(
Sean Green: Sean Green remains way awesome and way underrated. Provided his arm doesn't run away screaming, he should once again be a big part of the pen.
Mark Lowe: Impressive stuff, erratic command, inconsistent results. If you think that sounds like Mark Lowe, you're right. It also sounds like every single other middle reliever in the league. If middle relievers were awesome, they wouldn't be middle relievers, so as far as I'm concerned, having Lowe's stuff and upside handling the odd 6th and 7th inning is just ducky.
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So there you have it. That's 17 players off of the current roster that I think could help this team win in 2009, and I didn't even bother really thinking about the bench. Hell, you might be able to throw Wlad and Josh Fields in there too, although I'm not going to get ahead of myself. Let's just go with what I listed above. Here's what it looks like overall:
That team's at least average almost everywhere, with enough big-time talent to keep things interesting. It also only costs somewhere around $80m, which gives you $35-40m to spend on filling out the rest of the roster. What are the needs?
SP
LF
1B
DH
Utility
4th OF
Bench bat
Bench bat/reliever
...I'll save the particulars of that discussion for Part 2. For now, the big point I'm trying to make is that I don't believe for a second that this team is in dire need of reconstruction. Resurfacing, perhaps, but even that seems to imply something more dramatic than I think is necessary, because we already have a lot of the pieces to build a contender. We're just being dragged down by some heavy, heavy anchors. Anchors that won't be coming back after the season.
This team is capable of winning, and it's capable of winning pretty quick in a fashion that doesn't at all require sacrificing the future. Like I said, I'll address some of the additions we could make in Part 2, but for the time being, be encouraged. This team isn't a lost cause, and with a better-qualified GM running the show, we could be back in contention in a God damn hurry.
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comments
Comments
Keep Bedard? Madness...
(Please don’t kick me into the bottomless abyss of death)
Actually, sticking with Bedard sounds like a capital idea. It’s always possible that he restores some of his trade value in the next year. The M’s can always deal him at the deadline or let him walk in the offseason after next for a pick or two.
What if Ichiro patrolled Safeco's outfield while riding a Utahraptor?
by Frosty Raptor on Jul 4, 2008 2:54 AM PDT 0 recs
Five minute penalty for roughing the English language, second down
Abyss is by definition, an immeasurable chasm. Therefore, the adjective “bottomless” is not only unnecessary but redundant.
What if Ichiro patrolled Safeco's outfield while riding a Utahraptor?
by Frosty Raptor on
Jul 4, 2008 2:59 AM PDT
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Wait... Optimism?
What happened to Jeff?
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on Jul 4, 2008 2:55 AM PDT 0 recs
He's been saying this for a while.
The big caveat is “competent GM”.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on
Jul 4, 2008 4:08 AM PDT
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What about Ibanez?
I got no problem with him being the DH on a possible 2009 contender. That takes away one need.
One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power
by Goose on Jul 4, 2008 3:31 AM PDT 0 recs
I fear a multi-year extension
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 4, 2008 3:40 AM PDT
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I'm with you most of the way, here
Can’t argue that anyone should be shifted out, although of course we know that those 17 guys will probably look something like this in 2009:
- 11 roughly the same as 2008
- 3 a little better than in 2008
- 3 a little worse than in 2008
and if those who get worse were average in 2008 then that becomes a position de la suck again. Ultimately, what I’m trying to say is that whilst that sounds good, there’s little chance that you can rely on all 17 of those coming good the way we’d like next year.
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on Jul 4, 2008 6:27 AM PDT 0 recs
Here's another thought, too...
Is the assumption that this team will want to be a 2009 contender valid?
Depending upon the appointment of a Manager/GM in the offseason, they may come in with a very different plan that sees the Ms doing well in 2010/2011 as a higher priority than doing well in 2009?
On that basis, the motivation to trade Bedard increases significantly.
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on Jul 4, 2008 6:29 AM PDT 0 recs
Trade Rumors
Well, if trade rumors are a barometer, then the club seems to be leaning towards rebuilding. Bedard, Ibanez, Washburn, and several other M’s have been mentioned in trade rumors, many of which are fairly believable. I think the willingness to blow this thing up is there. In fact, it could be Lee’s mandate after taking over.
by Jerry on
Jul 4, 2008 4:11 PM PDT
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Worries about Yuni
I agree with most of this, and I agree that a good GM could make this a decent team in 2009. But I worry about whether Betancourt is too much of a liability. He’s been terrible at the plate this year, and it’s getting to the point where it looks like he won’t get a lot better. But worse still is his defense. Our pitchers, Felix in particular, and Silva, if he ever discovers how to get groundballs again, need to have good defenders behind them. And Yuni is terrible now. Is he going to get better? It’s a lot to hope for. I think they need to try to find an all-glove/no hit shortstop to replace him. Maybe they can even get something for him, if the other GM is overly optimistic or not paying attention.
by b_rider on Jul 4, 2008 6:35 AM PDT 0 recs
Yuni
I can’t comment on the defensive side, I don’t profess to know anywhere near enough about defensive metrics.
Lifting THT data though, I can tell that Yuni has had 81 games this year and 293 at bats.
Six other AL shortstops* have appeared more often than he has yet he ranks 5th in hits (81), 3rd in doubles (21), and 2nd in triples (2 – okay, poor data quality this low). He’s slugging 4th best (.392). Yes, he’s striking out a bunch and not walking, but that’s a case of his judgement when not making contact, rather than his skill when he is making contact. Surely the former is a more fixable attribute than the latter?
IMV, you’re going to have to find one hell of a glove to compensate. Who do you have in mind?
- data based upon sample of all 2008 AL SS with at least 20 games to July 3rd.
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on
Jul 4, 2008 7:48 AM PDT
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Yuni's home/road split
Was just browsing BR PI and noticed this. Apologies if this has been pointed out before, but if it hasn’t then it’s worth noting.
Home (40 games) .324 / .338 / .475 (.813 OPS) (.331 BABIP)
Road (41 games) .234 / .239 / .318 (.557 OPS) (.245 BABIP)
Just… wow.
Accidental Mariner - P3 W1 L2 (.333)
Sponsor of Jamie Burke's baseball-reference page
by MarkE on
Jul 4, 2008 7:57 AM PDT
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Why Yuni (apparently) sucks
I am not an expert on defense metrics, either, but Matthew has argued several times recently that Yuni’s defense is awful, nearly the worst in the league. From Matthew’s June 26 post:
“We’ve been harping on it for awhile now, but Yuni’s defense has regressed worse than Miguel Batista’s pitching. He stands near or at the bottom of shortstops at both making plays in zone and making plays out of zone. He’s always had trouble with the routine but when he first came up in 2005 and in 2006 he would make up for that with terrific range, getting to and at least stopping balls that Derek Jeter doesn’t even reach in his most frenzied ESPN-induced self-glory dreams. Those days are gone. Long gone. “
What really got me was when I was surfing on Fangraphs yesterday. They always talk about “WPA” and “WPA/LI”, so I was trying to understand the concepts. Then, I checked out the leaderboards, and went to see if any Mariners near the top or bottom of the standings. None near the top (of course) but Yuni was near the bottom of both (15th from bottom in WPA; 13th from bottom in WPA/LI). Similarly with RC/27 (10th from the bottom).
Granted, there were a lot of shortstops around him, but many of those were good defensive shortstops. I have no problem if Adam Everett doesn’t hit.
by b_rider on
Jul 4, 2008 9:02 AM PDT
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More
When someone seriously suggests that Bloomquist might be our best shortstop, we have a problem.
by b_rider on
Jul 4, 2008 9:03 AM PDT
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I'm glad you wrote this
Many are leaping off the deep end over wanting to tear the entire team down. This team has a lot of competitive pieces… it’s just that the previous GM’s additions have been expensive, useless and mostly stupid.
by Gomez on Jul 4, 2008 9:02 AM PDT 0 recs
Here's what I don't like about this team
Many of the pieces that are in place and can potentially help next year are a tick above or a tick below average. They’re good enough, but nothing spectacular really (ok, 3B and RF are sweet but what else? I’m not holding my breath for Clement to kick ass until ‘10).
What’s my point? Well, for this team to get over the hump they need some remarkable bats to complement the merely competent ones that make up much of the lineup. And those bats need to be in LF, 1B, and DH. These are exactly the positions that should be manned by competent bats from within the system, so the big money can be spent on a great hitting SS or 2B.
I think the team is doomed to repeat the Sexson blunder as they see a 1B power bat as such a dire need for the team, and that type of production is overvalued. I agree that we’re not so far off from contention, but I’m pretty sure I’m going to hate whatever contract they hand to their new DH and 1B this winter. One can hope, I suppose, that Pelekoudas surprises everyone by dealing Washburn to the Brewers for some of the promising bats logjammed behind Fielder and Braun… yeah… could happen.
Anyhow. Our offense plus better pitching plus awesome D gets you the Blue Jays, which is worse than sucking if you ask me. They need to make dramatic improvements to the lineup to make things interesting and I shudder to think of the kind of things they will do to achieve that, given the needs.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 4, 2008 9:19 AM PDT 0 recs
A lot of pieces on a lot of competitive teams are a tick above or a tick below average
by Gomez on
Jul 4, 2008 9:30 AM PDT
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not my point
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
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According to BP's 3rd-order adjusted standings the Blue Jays should be 48-38
but I’ll leave the rest of that to Part 2.
by Jeff on
Jul 4, 2008 12:07 PM PDT
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I hope that makes Ricciardi feel better about himself
but seriously, I’m stunned. That team scores fewer runs than we do.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 1:10 PM PDT
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BP is racist
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 4, 2008 8:17 PM PDT
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Well, the bullpen would be solid as a unit
and Felix and Bedard are/can be both significantly above average….
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
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And we wouldn't have any black holes like Weaver, Pineiro, Ramirez, Everett, Sexson, Vidro, Sele, Franklin...
...
>:(
by Jeff on
Jul 4, 2008 12:14 PM PDT
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You have players already in mind for part 2 or you open to ideas?
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:17 PM PDT
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If I hadn't been ordered to stay positive
I’d say “Adam Dunn, Aubrey Huff.”
by JI on
Jul 4, 2008 8:44 PM PDT
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right
I’m talking offense. Pitching is solid, and I’m going to assume that the back of the rotation isn’t going to be the leprosy ridden parasitic twin it has been the last couple of years. I’m taking all that as a given, but my point is that to be contenders they have to get some high quality bats in those positions, and I hate having to get those bats off the FA market.
I’m not saying they can’t contend, only that I hate what they have to do to get there.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:19 PM PDT
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They don't need high quality.
Even league average would be a huge improvement over Sexson/Vidro.
by acblue on
Jul 4, 2008 12:20 PM PDT
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League average offense + above average pitching + above average defense = 86+ wins
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:24 PM PDT
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how does the D go from worst to above average?
Tampa Bay did it, but they changed a lot of pieces around from last year – new SS, new 2B, new 3B, new OF (or was it two new OF?). The positions Jeff identified as needs aren’t going to drastically impact the team’s defense, so at best I see this group as lower middle class next year. Well, OK Ibanez and Sexson do a lot of damage between the two of them, but I still don’t see how replacing them with average guys will get you an above average defense. Which is why it seems they have to get very high quality bats.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:31 PM PDT
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Ibanez and Sexson, by most measurements are somewhere around 30-35 runs below average
on defense. Wilkerson and Wlad were bad as well. Jeremy Reed is good. And nobody has yet said anything about who might be the new LF and 1B. They could be good at defense.
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:35 PM PDT
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sure.
but when you last wrote up the team’s D you divided the blame equally between the infield and outfield, and while the outfield promises to be closer to competent the infield will only have one player replaced. Everyone else will have just aged a year.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:38 PM PDT
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Huzzahwhat?
Going by RZR, the infield doesn’t appear to be the brunt of the problem. They do have a lower than average RZR (.767 to .782) which through nearly half a season represents about 10-12 fewer plays on balls in zone, but they compensate by recording nine more plays out of zone than average so on the whole, it roughly balances out, though they are still a touch below average.
However the outfield is a whopping two percentage points below average (.876 to .896), which translates to again about 10 plays (fewer balls in zone to OF than IF), but they are also 11 plays under the average out of zone number putting them around 20 plays (or more) below average overall. And these are OF plays so their run value is higher than the 0.8 you’d use for overall analysis, in fact it’s a lot closer to 1.
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:42 PM PDT
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my bad
I guess I was looking at in-zone plays only. I understand that we’ve got a superlative RF and competent CF now, and chances are Sexson won’t be at first every day come August. So I guess whatever the second half defensive numbers are should be taken as a baseline for what this team can do going forward.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:50 PM PDT
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One example.
Reed was called up on May 20th and started getting regular playing time on May 31st.
Plus/Minus on May 27th: -36 plays
Plus/Minus on July 4th: -39 plays
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 12:55 PM PDT
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see, that's what I'm saying
Reed’s cost us 3 plays – he’s not a very good defender.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:57 PM PDT
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Just kidding there.
that’s very impressive.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:59 PM PDT
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Hah come on
If i did that you’d yell at me for using a week to draw conclusions about defensive value.
by Edgar for Pres on
Jul 4, 2008 1:27 PM PDT
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dude that's a month and a week
they were – 19 plays per month through April/May, then they were -3 through all of June and then some. Not much else to say there
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 1:40 PM PDT
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That's why I just said one example
instead of “See, Reed makes all the difference in the world!!!!!!!111”
It’s also a point about regression. The team’s defense isn’t as bad overall as it was through the first six weeks.
by Matthew on
Jul 4, 2008 1:49 PM PDT
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this reminds me actually
I think it’s important to reconcile individual defensive numbers with group defensive numbers, and this is a great opportunity to do so because you have a group that has both the best and worst gloves at their positions.
The infield as a whole was at -10 runs through almost half a season. Beltre has been playing fantastically, let’s put him at +5 (assuming he’s a +10 defender over a season, which may be wrong but I’m not the data ferry here). Sexson is terrible – he’s cost us 8 already (-15 over a season). Lopez is average, maybe a tick better, so let’s say +2. That means Yuni must have cost the team almost 10 runs over half a season! That’s Jeterian suck.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 1:09 PM PDT
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the team as a whole was -36 when you made the post, right?
The outfield is responsible for ~20 of those missed plays. The rest would have to be the infield.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 1:45 PM PDT
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but do you agree that at some level the individual contributions
have to be reconciled with the group’s? I think this will be a good measure of any system’s accuracy actually, since the team (and OF/IF) numbers seem to be solid even over one season.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 2:55 PM PDT
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Look at the players:
Clement: whatever, catchers are impossible to measure anyway
Lopez: average/decent
Yuni: bad/below-average
Beltre: great
Ichiro: good
Reed: good
You’ve got one – maybe two – problem defenders out of those six, and you can probably guess that when I set about filling 1B/LF, I’m not going to choose guys who can’t move. This defense can get a lot better in a hurry by ditching Richie, Ibanez, and the Wlad/Wilkerson experiment.
by Jeff on
Jul 4, 2008 12:46 PM PDT
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I am starting to question a little if Beltre is really an elite 3B
I think he’s probably +10 runs but I don’t know if he’s higher than that. Maybe he is.
by Edgar for Pres on
Jul 4, 2008 12:53 PM PDT
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But that's still just an assumption
This year’s RZR 3b rankings shows Beltre just a tiny bit ahead of… Jorge fucking Cantu.
Yes, yes – small sample, individual defensive metric. We can take this with as many grains of salt as may be required. But his RZR was approximately the same in 2007 (ca. 660-670).
The point here is that I don’t think we can honestly say that the defensive problems lie with a few players – that if you replace LF/1B that the defense would shoot back to average. Maybe it would, but the sheer magnitude of this year’s suckiness makes me wary of that.
That’s basically what I (and Graham) thought last year – that the replacement of Guillen plus some regression to the mean would put this team close to league average. That’s not at all what happened.
I think we may have to be open to the idea that Beltre and Ichiro just aren’t plus defenders any more. Given the suddenness of the shifts, I don’t think that’s necessarily “true talent” or anything, but for two years, MOST players on this team haven’t really been getting it done.
by marc w on
Jul 4, 2008 1:43 PM PDT
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OK.
Its hard to see beyond the way the team’s been playing, but yes, piece by piece they should be at least decent. It seems so improbable that the two least important positions defensively can drag them down so far. Well, them and Yuni, whose deterioration I still can’t believe.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:56 PM PDT
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To be contenders, they need to have a good run differential
this can come from any number of places. Really good pitching. Really good defense. Really good offense. A mix of two or three of those. And so on and so forth. This team doesn’t need to get better bats – it just needs to get better, period, and I think the partial roster we already have in place represents a pretty substantial step forward in that regard. That’s a pretty solid foundation of players.
Plus, at least wait until Part 2 before saying they don’t have enough.
by Jeff on
Jul 4, 2008 12:25 PM PDT
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I agree with your premise
all I’m pointing out is that they’ve struggled for three years to come up with a 1B/DH solution. These are easy positions to fill, yet they’ve been sucking the life out of our offense and they keep on dipping into the FA/trade pool and pulling out lemons. These are the positions that ML bats with no glove and rule 5 draftees are born to man, and here we are putting Yuni at short and calling it good so we can spend the big bucks on a LF. Its silly, is all I’m saying.
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:43 PM PDT
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So I guess the question is
do you think we’ll have really good pitching, defense, or offense. I have a tough time seeing it in any of these areas.
Felix and Bedard are borderline amazing but the rest of the rotation will probably be pretty pathetic. Two SP with ERA ~ low 3 plus three SP with ERA ~ mid 4 to low 5. Hmm I’m not gonna get too excited about that. Probably 10-20 runs above average. Not bad but isn’t going to be one of the best staffs out there.
If Putz can get healthy and get back in form we have an amazing bullpen. I feel like none of us are that shocked if Putz just kinda dissapears as he did this year with injuries and ineffectiveness. I really hope he gets back to where he was but I have a tough time counting on this. The rest of the bullpen is much like most other pens out there. Probably a little better than average but without Putz this won’t be a major strength.
Defense…I have a tough time seeing how our defense is going to go from horrid to amazing. I’m not sure what we are projected at for the season exactly. I’m gonna guess since THT has us for almost -40 plays this will translate to around -60 runs for the whole season (being generous with a little regression to the mean). Taking Sexson and Ibanez and replacing them with average defenders takes us to -20 runs probably. If Wlad is your replacement for Ibanez, calling Wlad an average defender appears to probably be pretty generous from what we saw in limited action this year. Maybe Reed and Ichiro in the OF together will increase that to -10 runs. Clement probably isn’t as good as Kenji but who the fuck knows how that translates to runs. Beltre and Ichiro aren’t getting any younger and probalby have slowly been slipping from elite defenders to just being well above average and will probably slip a few next year. Our middle infielders are both in danger of putting on pounds at any moment so there is also that defensive worry too.
And then above average offense? Good luck with that. Ichiro is our offensive star. He’s good but he’s just not going to ever produce like an offensive star. Beltre? Yeah I don’t want to rely on him. Lopez, Yuni, Reed, and Wlad would hopefully be able to be league average but I doubt it a little. Clement probably can be counted on to be a few runs above average for a catcher but I wouldn’t expect to be amazed next year. Who do we get at 1B and DH that would move us from hovering around league average (hopefully) to being good?
Oh yeah, don’t forget to project a few total black holes and injuries. You can’t see them coming but they will sap probably at least -20 runs from any projection you put together.
This team isn’t a last place team with a few tweaks. We all realize this I think. I have a tough time seeing how this team could contend but maybe 81 wins is good enough. The other thing that worries me is 2010 and 2011. If we follow this path will they be better or worse than 2009.
by Edgar for Pres on
Jul 4, 2008 12:51 PM PDT
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Sorry I should have broken that one up. Congrats to anybody who reads it all
by Edgar for Pres on
Jul 4, 2008 12:55 PM PDT
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the defense paragraph is a doozy
the artist formerly known as Mere Tantalisers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on
Jul 4, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
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I think you underestimate what other people have in the back of their rotation.
mid 4 to low 5 from your 3->5 starters is nowhere near pathetic.


