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The Marlins Are Crazy

I'm not going to bother speculating on whether or not a deal will go down, but if you've been paying any attention to things at all this afternoon, you've heard that the Marlins are interested in dealing Jeremy Hermida and a couple of others as part of a complicated trade for Manny Ramirez. And regardless of whether or not anything actually happens, the fact that they're even willing to consider this speaks volumes as to how nutso they really are.

With a pair of $20m club options on the horizon, it's unlikely that Manny would be any more than a rental. And as an everyday LF, he just...he isn't very good.

A little quick and dirty number-crunching projects Manny to have a .384 wOBA the rest of the way, against Hermida's .332 (give or take a few points for both). If you assume ~200 remaining plate appearances, that comes out to an offensive difference of nine runs. Were a trade to go down today, you could reasonably expect Manny Ramirez to improve Florida's offense by about nine runs over the final third of the year.

But offense is only half of the equation. The advanced defensive metrics consider Hermida to be a roughly average corner outfielder, while Manny tends to fall somewhere in the -30 < x < -20 range. So, assuming there's nothing all that wonky about how the metrics deal with the Green Monster and Manny really is that bad, we're talking about a ~7-10 run difference the other way. You know what falls between 7 and 10? 9.

If there's any truth to these whispers, then the Marlins are thinking about trading three more guaranteed years of Jeremy Hermida, along with a couple prospects, to make themselves not better. Like, at all. At most, we're talking a handful of runs for a team in third place.

You have to really, really, really believe in Manny's drawing power for this to even begin making the slightest lick of sense from Florida's perspective. It's a bad idea. It's a really bad idea. I'm all for the Marlins trying to make a big splash, but sweet baby Jesus, there are better ways.

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Today's Fun Fact

Nov 2008 by Jeff - 41 comments

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I want it to happen because I hate the Marlins and love Manny

but it’s terminally stupid.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 30, 2008 8:44 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd give Manny a 5-10 run edge at the plate

but Bay slaughters him in the field. As an LF, Bay’s the better player. If the Red Sox are able to turn Manny into Bay, prospects, and financial flexibility…

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2008 9:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Plus 1 year of Bay after this one.

by JI on Jul 30, 2008 9:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But Manny's options are team options yes?

So Epstein can just decline them after the season anyways. In other words, trading Manny doesn’t net the Sox financial security because they could have it regardless.

And isn’t there anecdotal evidence that Manny plays the green monster decently well whereas it tends to eat visiting LFers alive?

I don’t think it comes close to making this deal make sense, but I do think it’s less of an abortion than, say Kazmir-Zambrano.

by Matthew on Jul 30, 2008 10:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It gives them a good starting OF next year for a low price.

And even if Manny’s better than Bay at playing the wall, I don’t think there’s any way to deny that this trade would be helping the Red Sox in both the short- and long-terms.

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2008 11:09 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ramirez is a poor fit for Florida

Dolphins stadium is a fairly large park which would supress his power numbers to a certain degree. I can also see his defense getting much worse when he does not have the green monster in left field reducing the area he needs to cover. With no DH, his defensive limitations cannot be covered without leaving him out of the starting 9 which limits their options.

by tdot mariner fan on Jul 30, 2008 9:12 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your wOBA numbers

What are you using to calculate wOBA? My in-season Marcels + WAR spreadsheet give me a .364 wOBA for Manny and a .344 wOBA for Hermida. I’ve got the difference between the two at about five runs the rest of the year.

This is unbelievably bad trade for Florida.

by davidcameron on Jul 30, 2008 9:25 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

( .72*BB + .9*1B + 1.26*2B + 1.54*3B + 1.9*HR ) / PA

I was just using a flat three-year average because I couldn’t be bothered to weight.

by Jeff on Jul 30, 2008 9:30 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ahh, that's why

I used Sal Baxamus’a Marcel spreadsheet – just copy and paste. Pretty easy.

by davidcameron on Jul 30, 2008 9:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is like a statistical genius conversation..

Numbers, asterisks, Marcels, spreadsheets.. I’m impressed

by seattlesundevil on Jul 30, 2008 9:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So much for genius

Jeff’s numbers were right – I made a transcription error. The offensive difference is about 7 runs the rest of the year.

by davidcameron on Jul 30, 2008 9:54 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hey smart people

In the second comment here Tangotiger says to find runs above average per PA you “subtract the league average OBP from wOBA, and divide by 1.15.” But here it says “Run value per PA above average = (wOBA for player – wOBA for league) / 1.15 .” So which is it? And if it’s the latter, where can you find league average wOBA? I tried on firstinning.com but couldn’t find it

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 31, 2008 12:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So now the real question.

If they’ll deal Hermida for Manny, what do they think Rhodes is worth?

by DAMellen on Jul 30, 2008 9:45 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let this deal happen....

This would cause the Mets to panic and overpay for Ibanez.

by PLU Tim on Jul 30, 2008 10:04 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It'd be funny to see both teams overpay for LFs that can hit but are terrible at defense.

But I like the Marlins, so I hope that they pull their heads out of their asses before its too late.

JI/Robert '08!

by Fin on Jul 30, 2008 11:10 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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