The Marlins Are Crazy
I'm not going to bother speculating on whether or not a deal will go down, but if you've been paying any attention to things at all this afternoon, you've heard that the Marlins are interested in dealing Jeremy Hermida and a couple of others as part of a complicated trade for Manny Ramirez. And regardless of whether or not anything actually happens, the fact that they're even willing to consider this speaks volumes as to how nutso they really are.
With a pair of $20m club options on the horizon, it's unlikely that Manny would be any more than a rental. And as an everyday LF, he just...he isn't very good.
A little quick and dirty number-crunching projects Manny to have a .384 wOBA the rest of the way, against Hermida's .332 (give or take a few points for both). If you assume ~200 remaining plate appearances, that comes out to an offensive difference of nine runs. Were a trade to go down today, you could reasonably expect Manny Ramirez to improve Florida's offense by about nine runs over the final third of the year.
But offense is only half of the equation. The advanced defensive metrics consider Hermida to be a roughly average corner outfielder, while Manny tends to fall somewhere in the -30 < x < -20 range. So, assuming there's nothing all that wonky about how the metrics deal with the Green Monster and Manny really is that bad, we're talking about a ~7-10 run difference the other way. You know what falls between 7 and 10? 9.
If there's any truth to these whispers, then the Marlins are thinking about trading three more guaranteed years of Jeremy Hermida, along with a couple prospects, to make themselves not better. Like, at all. At most, we're talking a handful of runs for a team in third place.
You have to really, really, really believe in Manny's drawing power for this to even begin making the slightest lick of sense from Florida's perspective. It's a bad idea. It's a really bad idea. I'm all for the Marlins trying to make a big splash, but sweet baby Jesus, there are better ways.
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I want it to happen because I hate the Marlins and love Manny
but it’s terminally stupid.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 8:44 PM PDT
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It's a good deal for Boston.
Rick Ankiel wears Fairy Winkle underoos
by JI on
Jul 30, 2008 8:50 PM PDT
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And here come the "Manny Ramirez" Google News hits.
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 8:56 PM PDT
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You woould say Manny and bay are ~equal with the bat?
How less terrible is Bay at defense?
by JI on
Jul 30, 2008 8:58 PM PDT
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I'd give Manny a 5-10 run edge at the plate
but Bay slaughters him in the field. As an LF, Bay’s the better player. If the Red Sox are able to turn Manny into Bay, prospects, and financial flexibility…
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 9:02 PM PDT
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Agreed.
Plus 1 year of Bay after this one.
by JI on
Jul 30, 2008 9:07 PM PDT
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GO FUCK YOURSELF
"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson
by P Brady on
Jul 30, 2008 9:37 PM PDT
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Don't mess with the Rays.
They’re for real.
by oc on
Jul 30, 2008 9:53 PM PDT
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IT WAS A JOKE
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 9:55 PM PDT
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But Manny's options are team options yes?
So Epstein can just decline them after the season anyways. In other words, trading Manny doesn’t net the Sox financial security because they could have it regardless.
And isn’t there anecdotal evidence that Manny plays the green monster decently well whereas it tends to eat visiting LFers alive?
I don’t think it comes close to making this deal make sense, but I do think it’s less of an abortion than, say Kazmir-Zambrano.
by Matthew on
Jul 30, 2008 10:34 PM PDT
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Having Bay locked in at ~$7.5 m for 2009 gives the Red Sox much more flexibility.
by JI on
Jul 30, 2008 11:05 PM PDT
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Why the Marlins aren't trading for Bay I don't know
maybe they really want the draft picks for next June and they’re trying to save money by not going to arb with Hermida???
by JI on
Jul 30, 2008 11:06 PM PDT
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The Pirates' FO is really smart and realizes it's always a bad idea to trade within the division.
I root for the two worst teams in baseball, non-ironically.
by esoteric on
Jul 31, 2008 9:42 AM PDT
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It gives them a good starting OF next year for a low price.
And even if Manny’s better than Bay at playing the wall, I don’t think there’s any way to deny that this trade would be helping the Red Sox in both the short- and long-terms.
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 11:09 PM PDT
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Padres broadcast proposes Manny to the Packers for Brett Farve.
One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power
by Goose on
Jul 30, 2008 9:05 PM PDT
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Ramirez is a poor fit for Florida
Dolphins stadium is a fairly large park which would supress his power numbers to a certain degree. I can also see his defense getting much worse when he does not have the green monster in left field reducing the area he needs to cover. With no DH, his defensive limitations cannot be covered without leaving him out of the starting 9 which limits their options.
by tdot mariner fan on
Jul 30, 2008 9:12 PM PDT
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According to R.J., Manny said it won't happen.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 9:23 PM PDT
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And he's of the reliable sort
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 30, 2008 9:28 PM PDT
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R,J, hung the moon as far as I'm concerned.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 9:29 PM PDT
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I meant Manny
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 30, 2008 9:33 PM PDT
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Manny don't front.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 9:35 PM PDT
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Your wOBA numbers
What are you using to calculate wOBA? My in-season Marcels + WAR spreadsheet give me a .364 wOBA for Manny and a .344 wOBA for Hermida. I’ve got the difference between the two at about five runs the rest of the year.
This is unbelievably bad trade for Florida.
by davidcameron on
Jul 30, 2008 9:25 PM PDT
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( .72*BB + .9*1B + 1.26*2B + 1.54*3B + 1.9*HR ) / PA
I was just using a flat three-year average because I couldn’t be bothered to weight.
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 9:30 PM PDT
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However, I obviously trust your Marcels more than my own cocktail napkin calculations.
I just don’t have access to them.
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 9:31 PM PDT
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Ahh, that's why
I used Sal Baxamus’a Marcel spreadsheet – just copy and paste. Pretty easy.
by davidcameron on
Jul 30, 2008 9:34 PM PDT
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This is like a statistical genius conversation..
Numbers, asterisks, Marcels, spreadsheets.. I’m impressed
by seattlesundevil on
Jul 30, 2008 9:38 PM PDT
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So much for genius
Jeff’s numbers were right – I made a transcription error. The offensive difference is about 7 runs the rest of the year.
by davidcameron on
Jul 30, 2008 9:54 PM PDT
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I was happy to go ahead and not tell anyone about that.
Besides, geniuses make mistakes.

by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 9:56 PM PDT
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Just text me good news tomorrow
and we’ll call it even.
by davidcameron on
Jul 30, 2008 9:59 PM PDT
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Given the way things have gone in the past, I hope you're the one doing the texting.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 30, 2008 10:01 PM PDT
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Did the text about Ichiro's dropped catch count as a negative?
I have a reputation to maintain.
by Jeff on
Jul 30, 2008 10:02 PM PDT
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Hey smart people
In the second comment here Tangotiger says to find runs above average per PA you “subtract the league average OBP from wOBA, and divide by 1.15.” But here it says “Run value per PA above average = (wOBA for player – wOBA for league) / 1.15 .” So which is it? And if it’s the latter, where can you find league average wOBA? I tried on firstinning.com but couldn’t find it
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on
Jul 31, 2008 12:17 PM PDT
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You can just plug the Baseball-Reference league averages into the wOBA equation
by Jeff on
Jul 31, 2008 12:50 PM PDT
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Thank ye kindly
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on
Jul 31, 2008 1:33 PM PDT
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So now the real question.
If they’ll deal Hermida for Manny, what do they think Rhodes is worth?
by DAMellen on
Jul 30, 2008 9:45 PM PDT
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Let this deal happen....
This would cause the Mets to panic and overpay for Ibanez.
by PLU Tim on
Jul 30, 2008 10:04 PM PDT
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It'd be funny to see both teams overpay for LFs that can hit but are terrible at defense.
But I like the Marlins, so I hope that they pull their heads out of their asses before its too late.
JI/Robert '08!
by Fin on
Jul 30, 2008 11:10 PM PDT
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What are the Mets going to overpay with?
David Wright?
Their system has already been pillaged.
by Wilder. on
Jul 31, 2008 3:15 AM PDT
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I am pretty sure Manny may put some butts into the seats.
I can’t think of much more of a benefit of that.
JI/Robert '08!
by Fin on
Jul 30, 2008 11:08 PM PDT
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And it's Marlins fans.
They wouldn’t sell out if Jesus was playing CF and Felix was pitching
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 31, 2008 5:05 AM PDT
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How could he play two positions at once?
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 31, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
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