The Cost of a Player
There exists a school of thought that says fans should ignore the monetary cost of acquiring any player. After all, its proponents say, it's the owners' money being spent, not theirs! A fan should care about winning, not team finances.
Is this a reasonable approach to take? Well, no. And a lot of the problem lies in the extremely narrow definition of cost that people consider.
Think of it like this:
A player's value to a franchise is tied to how much money he generates, which, for the most part, correlates with how many wins he produces. He is rewarded for this by being given X amount of money over Y years.
However, it's not all about money and years. There are other costs incurred in acquiring players, ranging from giving up draft picks to trading parts of the team. You could even make the argument that part of the cost of drafting Jeff Clement was not drafting Troy Tulowitzki.
Let's lump these into three main types of cost: money, years, and players. These affect two key aspects of any franchise - finances and the roster itself.
Firstly, finances. The money itself generally comes out of the owners. There's a slight cost to the fans incurred in ticket prices, etc, but that's not particularly important. The real blow comes when the payroll is considered. Loosely speaking, a team has a finite amount of money to spend on players each year. A very high salary for one player might not manifest itself in beer prices, but it certainly will impact a team's financial flexibility for as long as said player is on the books. Not only is Carlos Silva overpaid, but he's stopping us committing his slice of the payroll to a Ben Sheets or an A.J. Burnett. Conversely, this is why club controlled players are so useful - by getting production for $0, a club is free to pay more for improved production elsewhere.
Then comes the roster, which is slightly more subtle. The key point here is that there is a hard cap on how many players can be on an ML team, and then further caps on starting players. If a NL team had 28 MVP calibre players (who never got injured), 3 of them would be completely useless due to roster constraints, and a further 12 of them would be of marginal use, because they would spend the vast majority of their time on the bench or in the bullpen. A bad player on the bench might be free in terms of the money he makes but he takes up roster space that could be better used on someone else. Carlos Silva is one of the things preventing Ryan Rowland-Smith from starting in Seattle*. The idea of players being blocked due to superior play or clunky contracts is why you see very talented players get traded so often - a team with two 3-win catchers only needs one, after all. And of course, roster space is not the only part of the roster which can be considered a cost. Giving up a player means you lose out on the wins/money he generates over the life of the contract, which needs to be recouped somehow.
In other words you can't just trivialise a player's cost by saying 'it's not my money'. Acquiring a player affects a franchise in many different ways, and most of them have an impact on the quality of the team in the short and long term - which as a fan isn't something you can simply dismiss out of hand.
*A similar argument may be made demonstrating that a platoon is slightly less valuable than an equally productive single player.
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Thank you for this.
A further point can be made that even “big-market” teams like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, etc have to consider the cost of a player, that they can’t just throw tons of cash at the latest hot name like they may have done 10-15 years ago; the Yankees’ bereft farm system of the mid-to-late 90’s is an example of this. Can they paper over the cracks with expensive signings? Sure, but it’ll come back to bite them in the ass at some point.
“Win now” is great, but if “win now” doesn’t work, what’s it going to cost?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
This is your opinion, and you have a right to it.
But I also have a right to my opinion, and it must be given equal weight to yours, or else you guys are all a bunch of fascist assholes who hate America.
The guy was quite polite, so it's hard to rap him too hard.
But yeah, the whole “all opinions are equal and must be treated as such” argument always rubs me the wrong way.
I hate you assholes...
People like you keep trying to downplay my theory that Burt Reynolds traveled back in time while having sex with Bea Arthur and left fluids in the primordial ooze while Zenu shifted the sun to create a favorable growing climate and that kid from the Munsters specifically accelerated human growth with an evolution ray made from an early microwave and a lawn tractor strapped to empty 55 gallon drums.
Seriously, my idea is just as good as yours, and should be treated as such in general society. It’s too bad though, I tried to go into politics and they said my ideas weren’t stupid eough.
zomg no politics
FanShots are underrated.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 30, 2008 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I mowed in the heat
and therefore if you get hot throwing 95+ mph in 100 degree weather you are a bitch
Go Nova
We definitely should not overpay for players who can't regulate their body temperature correctly.
I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 30, 2008 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like we're going to have to start scouting Tibet
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 30, 2008 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions
OK, w/o discounting this, I feel obliged to paraphrase the opposing view
No, I’m not quoting some recent visitors to LL…
While there is no getting around the fact that the Angels ‘overpaid’ for Teixeira by giving up several years of a free/arb 1B who wasn’t bad, that may not be the end of the matter.
This morning, the Angels third-order record is 55-51 – a far cry from their actual record of 66-40. As we all know, the main reason for this is their middling EqR. Their pitching has been great, but they’ve not been a great hitting team.
It’s difficult to make a guess as to how many runs Teixeira might add with the bat in the remaining months, but it may be on the order of 30 (he’ll get to play in Texas again). This trade may help bring the Angels ‘true talent’ more in line with their actual record. They may sacrifice some runs scored in defense, though both are generally thought of as good defenders, so I’m just going to ignore that for the moment.
The reason this may matter is that a better team has better odds in a short playoff series. Graham rightly points out that the ‘better team’ hasn’t done so hot in the playoffs recently. But looking at the log5 odds, there’s still an advantage to being the better team by ‘true’ talent. Not big enough to overwhelm random chance, sure, but it’s real. The Angels, right now, have just less than 50% odds of winning a game AT HOME against the White Sox, a probably playoff foe. Adding Tex shifts that to a positive number, and, given HF advantage, that may be important. It’s still right around 50%, so I’m not saying I’d do it, but there you go.
The point of this rather rambling and, in the cold light of day, rather dumb post is to show that there is THEORETICALLY a case to be made for a major upgrade IF you value material improvement in playoff odds. Would you trade good value for 3 years for an odds upgrade of 0.10 in each playoff series? How about 0.20?
At some point, an owner is going to make that deal – some risks are worth making given the revenue boost of playoff games, TV rights and however much a WS title improves attendance.
It’s absolutely true that sacrificing player control years isn’t generally a good thing, and that the ‘it’s not my money’ argument doesn’t really explain a lot. But there IS a material value to winning in the playoffs, and there IS an inflection point in there somewhere wherein sacrificing future payroll flexibility for a shot at huge cash makes sense.
I’m fairly confident that this particular deal doesn’t pencil out that way, but we’d need to know a hell of a lot more about teams revenue streams to even attempt it. We also know that adding an impact player can have a decent impact on a team’s chances in a playoff series, though random chance (and the tendency for all MLB playoff teams to be quite close in actual or 3rd order WP) mean the difference isn’t all that meaningful.
Fair enough?
Tex's bat, over 2 months,
is at most 10 runs better than Kotchman’s and more likely is about 6-7 runs better. His defense is likely a run or two worse.
I think it may be higher than that
I thought I was the resident TexPessimist here, but even so, the guy’s clearly a 100 EqR guy. Kotchman is maybe 65-70. This year, perhaps less. I thought we had more season to go, but I can still see a bit more than 10. 10-12, maybe.
And yeah, I edited this thing DOWN because I was looking at exactly how many more runs Tex would have to add to materially change the Angels playoff odds and the answer was wwwaaaaayyyy more than he could ever hope to add. I’m convinced that Tex will NOT materially change their odds.
Still, I think it’s worth exploring under what conditions a trade like this might be seen as rational from a business standpoint. What amount of potential gain times what level of marginally better odds does this start to seem OK? Given that this probably isn’t the best case, but….
I don't like EqR.
I’d prefer to use wOBA, but I don’t have the numbers handy so using a proxy, Palmer’s linear weights, shows Tex to be about ~20 runs better with the bat based on a rough regression average.
Still, we’re talking about at most a half-win difference between our estimates and that’s over 55 games. Over the playoffs, Tex might be about 3 runs more valuable.
Yeah, wOBA is better, but I'm too lazy to go convert it back to runs.
EqA was handy, since I was already at BP looking at the 3rd order standings.
Where do you find wOBA for this year?
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 30, 2008 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't making an argument for or against that particular trade here, Marc.
I was just trying to show that dismissing the cost of a player when you’re making such arguments is crazy.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 30, 2008 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I know - and I tried to make it clear that you can't argue with your post
I just don’t want others to have the take-away that because you can’t dismiss cost, that ‘going for it’ is always a waste of money.
Since this sprung out of the discussion of this particular trade, I thought it was sort of germane. Maybe not.
Not trying to make light of your comment
It’s a really interesting point (and added value from playoffs was something I considered talking about but forgot). It just feels like it would be better as a stand alone diary or something.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 30, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, although
this whole thing was basically speculations about an unknown. As I said above, I just cut out all the actual calculations because it was damned obvious that Tex isn’t going to fundamentally alter the Angels’ playoff odds looking at 3rd order wins.
And I don’t think a diary about speculation like that is all that valuable. Taking nothing away from trade rumor diaries…
I was thinking more generally
A discussion of the potential $ value added by a player would be pretty cool, especially when playoff/WS odds are considered.
Although I suppose we’re actually having it now anyway.
by Graham MacAree on Jul 30, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, though we may need someone on the inside
would you get off your ass and get a damn JOB already?
I just have no idea of the scale of playoff revenue or how playoff success correlates with attendance in the following few years. Without even ballpark numbers there, it’s really hard to get to a $ value for a player who might ‘push you over the top’ that would mean anything.
If the $$$ increase is really huge, that might help make up for the fact that a single player in a series isn’t really changing a TEAM true talent level all that much. Though I suppose if it’s a pitcher, it might change the playoff odds… say, has anyone ever done tweaks to log5 to focus on specific pitchers? I mean, the M’s with Felix aren’t the same team as the M’s with Silva… hmm….

















