Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 9:36 AM PDT in Series Previews Comment 72 comments

Seattle: 39-65
Rangers: 54-51

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs Scott Feldman
Game 2: Carlos Silva vs Luis Mendoza
Game 3: Miguel Batista vs Vicente Padilla
Game 4: R.A. Dickey vs Matt Harrison

Nominally a relief pitcher the past few years, Feldman has worked out of the rotation mostly this season to moderate success on batted balls. As far as his stuff and control goes, well... his strike rate is under 60% and he's only missing bats 4.4% of the time, whereas a league average SP misses bats 7.6% of the time and throws a strike 63% of the time.

Going from mediocre to horrible, say hello to Luis Mendoza. We have a limited sample size to this point, but holy crap, he has a 8.67 tRA in the rotation this year. Much like Feldman above, Mendoza throws few strikes and rarely misses bats but on top of that he layers on a ton of line drives and homeruns allowed.

Vicente Padilla has had a bit of a rebound from a terrible 2007, but he's still far behind his contract season of 2006. His groundball rate has steadily deteriorated with a corresponding rise in home run rate.

Matt Harrison has been awful so far.

Likely Starters:
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia^
1 Chris Davis*
2 Ian Kinsler
3 Hank Blalock*
S Michael Young
L David Murphy*
C Josh Hamilton*
R Marlon Byrd
D Milton Bradley^

Chris Davis illustrates exactly what this team needs in spades. Drafted in the 5th round in 2006, seven picks after we took Nathan Adcock, Davis mashed right away and worked his way up to AA in just his second professional year last year. This season, he continued destroying AA and was moved up to AAA and got even better and so with a glaring black hole at first base on the big league team, the Rangers called him up and oh he just has a 180 OPS+ so far.

Texas' lineup is just plain silly good. How good? They're above .500 and within challenging range of a wild card spot with some of the worst pitching and defense in baseball. Yeah, that good.

CONTEXT

Trade trade trade. Please go away Washburn. Please overpay for Ibanez, New York.

A huzzah to Jose Lopez who has finally drawn some damn walks and is up to a respectable .744 OPS. His .324 OPB is by no means good, but coupled with low strikeout rates and okay power, he's doing fine for a keystoner. If he can match 2008's offense with 2006-7 defense, it would eliminate the desire to upgrade at that position this winter and provide us with another valuable player.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Ølfabrikken Porter
Gourmetbryggeriet. Roskilde, Denmark

The south generally sucks as a beer region so heading to a location that doesn't get much pub, Denmark, we encounter a tremendous example of how to make both a porter and a very Danish brewery name. This porter pours much like a stout but just hits you with chocolate notes all over the place.

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Comments

Texas' lineup vs. Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva

Viva Strasburg!

The Jose Lopez Watch - 124H - 14 BB - 58 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 28, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That 30 run record isn't going to last long.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 28, 2008 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with Alamo beer?

And like I said a month ago, Chris Davis is already the best 1b in the AL West…. kind of sad.

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 10:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Miguel Cairo begs to differ

The Jose Lopez Watch - 124H - 14 BB - 58 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 28, 2008 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It sucks is what's wrong with it.

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a real beer?

I was just referencing King of the Hill.

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm waiting for us to be owned by Luis Mendoza

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 28, 2008 10:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Our lineup

does seem to work miracles for struggling pitchers.
Remember during the first few weeks when we though the Mariners had actually decided that they would be patient and walk more? Looks like only Beltre (and Sexson and Wilkerson) really stuck with it.

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Johjima, and Lopez, and Ichiro, and Bloomquist.

All of whom have better walk rates this year than last.

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't realize that Ichiro had more walks this year.

Bloomy, yeah that’s obvious.
JLo currently is .022 this year compared to .024 (unless baseball reference is a bit slow, but it’s pretty much a wash regardless)
Johjima is .041 this year compared to .035 last year… He could be getting 50 walks this year and he’d still suck, since his BA is .208 and he only has 3 hr…
I just meant in general, our team has a knack for getting bad pitchers out of their slumps.

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Loafie: 3.6% walk rate last year, 4.0% this year.

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excluding intentional walks?

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 28, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs has him at 4.2 this year

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 28, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

and 3.7 last year

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 28, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

that doesn't make much sense.

18 walks in 448 PAs = 4.0%

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

I guess fangraphs isn’t to be trusted

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 28, 2008 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just a note on Oelfabrikken

The brewery name seems to be Oelfabrikken, hence http://www.olfabrikken.dk/
That name literally means beer factory. They make a ton of beers, all with the Olfabrikken name. Gourmetbryggeriet basically means craft brewery in this context. Bryggeri/Bryggeriet meaning brewery.

Anyway, this stout seems to have been retired, but they’re still making a winter porter that gets the same high rating on ratebeer and clocks in at 11%. Sheesh….

And yes, Chris Davis is amazing. His ISO-P is over .300…. on the road. In Arlington, he’s slugging .857.
Oakland’s now developing some intriguing 1B prospects, so it’s imperative that the M’s acquire power somewhere.

by marc w on Jul 28, 2008 10:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Weird.

I had some while in Germany so I don’t know if it’s recently retired or if I just got lucky.

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess 'lucky' just based on its rating... .97?

Their website has it listed under previous/earlier beers, so yeah, it’s definitely retired.
How long ago did you have it?

by marc w on Jul 28, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2.5 years ago.

I probably should have checked, but why the hell would they retire such a great beer?

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're cranking through a ton of beers

they must retire 3-4 per year, more including seasonals.

I’m never a huge fan of that shotgun approach, but many of their ales get really high marks. Never had one; wish I knew about it when I was there, or rather, I wish it existed when I was there.

by marc w on Jul 28, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How long before the Rangers solve their catcher problem?

They should be trying like hell to trade Laird to the Yankees.

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 10:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

When Teagarden gets back from Beijing.

At that point, yeah, Laird or Salty move. I’d be tempted if I was them to move Saltalamacchia, just because he still may have quite a bit of value.

by marc w on Jul 28, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think they'd sell on Laird while is average is still decent

and then sell Saltalamacchia at a later date.

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the plan..

Although the Yanks seem to be stuck on just taking on salary and not trading any prospects, which won’t get the deal done. The team that seems to be leading the competition for Laird’s services is the Reds.

We play this game over at lonestarball a lot (which catcher to keep). It seems like Boston should be interested in a catcher this offseason in addition to the Yanks. I think Rangers fans would be okay with losing Salty, just because there hasn’t been the time to really form an attachment yet. Whatever the case is, close to major league pitching prospects need to being coming back for any catcher not named Laird.

Honestly, Teagarden going to the Olympics was one of the best possible things. Because of it, Max Ramirez got to go to AAA after having an emergency debut for the Rangers. Hopefully, by the time he gets back, Laird is gone and we can roll with Teagarden/Salty for a bit.

by GhettoBear04 on Jul 28, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct; beer snobs in the South pride themselves on choosing Blue Moon and Heineken.

I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 28, 2008 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, Texas has Shiner

which isn’t bad, but can’t hang with the likes of Rogue/Hales or even Deschutes. But hey, they’ve got a craft brewer that’s nationally known.

I think Matthew used that one for a previous series, however….

by marc w on Jul 28, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I didn't realize that Shiner was considered a craft brewer.

I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 28, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shiner Hefewiezen is really, really awful.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 28, 2008 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Er, hefeweizen

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 28, 2008 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

False.

At least, not in Texas. But unfortunately, we don’t get many of the northwestern beers down here. There’s definitely a market for good beer though, and you see places like The Flying Saucer pop up in decent sized cities. Also, I think Stella Artois has passed Heineken as a maybe average beer that “beer snobs” drink. At least it has around these parts.

Still, German, Belgian and New Belgian beers play pretty big down here among the non-ex-frat guys who buy 24 packs of Pearl Light.

by GhettoBear04 on Jul 28, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When they want an import, they drink Heineken and Newcastle

Vegas has the Freaking Frog now, and of course there’s always been the Crown & Anchor.

by Gomez on Jul 28, 2008 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait for both Silva and batista to get destoryed.

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ah nuts

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So what's the story on them that is going to be erased?

I assume that’s what destoryed means…

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/6/29/561488/the-acme-approaches#7071576

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm reading this right

the offense is about to get owned by Feldman and Mendoza, but might do okay vs. Padilla. Felix might save a win by defeating Feldman, but the offense’s theoretical Padilla bonus is negated by a Batista start.

Is that the take home message y’all get?

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jul 28, 2008 10:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Padilla has always been my least favorite pitcher to watch.

I clocked him at 47 seconds between pitches last year.

by Robert on Jul 28, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I went ot the Batista start

I was counting “one monkey, two monkey, three monkey.. etc” between pitches because God that first inning was agonizing.

Revenge of '96: STOP THE CHOP

by JI on Jul 28, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if there's anything more annoying than a pitcher who does that.

by LantermanC on Jul 28, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mine too.

And I’m a Rangers fan. Greasy, slow, and throws temper tantrums when he isn’t doing well by beaning hitters.

by GhettoBear04 on Jul 28, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we see good Felix, we might be able to find a win with today's game.

But with their offense and our horrible pitching…yeah, I think you summed it up about right.

I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 28, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Padilla v. Batista will be a thrilling and quick game,

just like a 4 deck game of War with a 6 year old.

by Jed MC on Jul 28, 2008 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Correct.

God, I hate war (cue Edwin Starr).

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jul 28, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 28, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

ZOMG CARD GAME POLITICS

by Gomez on Jul 28, 2008 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would much rather see a Felix vs. Corey Feldman matchup.

With Haim coming in to close for Feldman in the 9th.

by thewyrm on Jul 28, 2008 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Goonies never say die.

I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 28, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know. . .

I could really go for a Baby Ruth right now.

by thewyrm on Jul 28, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcom to the Lone Star furnace

106 yesterday, 104 today, heat index some illegible triple digit number. Last night at 10 pm it was still 100 degrees F on the thermometer near our apartment gate. Anyone visiting, lots of sunscreen and plenty of water is recommended.

Aside: we don’t know locally what will happen with the catching situation. It’s been a point of disagreement among LSB and NMLR posters for a while now. Should be interesting.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Jul 28, 2008 11:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Just switch to celcius. It'll make it seem cooler.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jul 28, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Then why do colder countries use it?

I suppose we could be bragging.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 28, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I lived in San Antonio.

People in Arlington need to shut up about their heat and try living closer to the humid mess known as the Gulf.

by Matthew on Jul 28, 2008 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where just stepping outside you feel as though you walked into a dog's mouth.

I would do cartwheels over my name written in sand

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 28, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mmm, where the air smells like fried potatoes in July, and you feel like one

by Gomez on Jul 28, 2008 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome to Sweepsville.

Population: Mariners

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phildopip on Jul 28, 2008 11:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Heh. This series includes Felix.

The Jose Lopez Watch - 124H - 14 BB - 58 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 28, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's hot in Texas

Yesterday was 107 degrees. Today is a balmy 105. The temperature, which is forecasted to be over 100 all week, is matched with a humidity from the gulf air from last week’s hurricane.

The weather will be the star of this series as players wilt before your very eyes.

Even if it doesn’t slow the players from both teams down tonight, it will leave them exhausted before the end of this series.

by Plano Fan on Jul 28, 2008 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs