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One last time, for old times' sake:
In perhaps his last start for the Mariners, Jarrod Washburn hurled a gem against the Blue Jays on Sunday by allowing just one run in eight innings. (Rotoworld)
Wrong.
Okay, the second part is true - Washburn did indeed allow but a single run today in eight innings against Toronto, an outing that couldn't have come at a more perfect time given the state of negotiations between New York and Seattle.
But to call this "a gem" demonstrates complete and utter ignorance of what it takes to be a good pitcher. I know, I know, it isn't the job of the Rotoworld people to report much more than the most basic results, but let's not pretend like that's the only place singing Washburn's praises. It was just the first place I looked. People all over are going to be giving Jarrod credit for pitching brilliantly under considerable duress, credit that - let's be honest - he doesn't really deserve.
As we've talked about many a time, the three big keys for a pitcher are throwing strikes, missing bats, and keeping the ball on the ground. With a couple exceptions, a great pitcher does all three, a good pitcher does two, a mediocre pitcher does one, and Steve Trachsel does zero. So with that in mind, how'd Jarrod do today?
-67% strikes (68/101)
-2 swings and misses
-7 grounders on 27 balls in play
Against a starting lineup that's combined for a .689 OPS against lefties so far this year, Jarrod did a good job of finding the zone, but didn't really do anything else. The Blue Jays were constantly making contact and putting the ball in the air. They also hit a home run and five other line drives, so even with the four infield pop-outs, it's not like they weren't hitting the ball well. Plug this into the equation and you come out with a tRA close to five. That's below average. Jarrod only allowed one run in eight innings today, but if he made a habit of pitching like this all the time, he'd be a below-average starter. This "gem" was nothing more than a classic Ryan Franklin Special. And you remember how happy we were to shed Ryan Franklin.
With all that said, whatever; it's not like this could possibly hurt the Mariners' bargaining position, so there's no reason to be angry or annoyed. It's just...it's funny how small, essentially meaningless samples of information seem to carry so much weight. So Jarrod has a 2.82 ERA over his last 11 starts. Neato. Clearly a valuable arm to add for the stretch drive. But at the same time, his core numbers over the same stretch are as boring as they've ever been, he had a 7.14 ERA in the nine starts immediately preceding, and his tRA on the season is hovering around five, just like it has for as long as he's been a Mariner. Despite this little hot streak of run prevention, he's not by any means a different pitcher, and I just can't fathom being Brian Cashman - theoretically one of the 30 smartest roster management minds in the world - looking at Jarrod, and thinking "this is a guy we could really use to help put us over the top." Jarrod Washburn? Really? Jarrod Washburn is the best you can do? I don't think you're trying very hard.
I guess I shouldn't complain. If the Yankees want Jarrod Washburn, then more power to them; I hope he helps them overtake the Red Sox. I just shouldn't let myself get caught up in all the rumors, because as much as I'd love to have Cabrera or Gardner, this is Jarrod Washburn we're talking about, and at the end of the day, the real prize in any Jarrod Washburn trade is that you no longer have to deal with Jarrod Washburn.
Go away, Jarrod. Go away and never come back.
Biggest Contribution: Jarrod Washburn, +29.8%
Biggest Suckfest: Adrian Beltre, -6.7%
Most Important AB: Vidro homer, +24.0%
Most Important Pitch: McDonald homer, -13.5%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +32.3%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +17.7%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)
John McDonald and Jose Vidro both hit home runs.
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"Go away, Jarrod. Go away and never come back."
Truth
by IceStormV1 on Jul 27, 2008 3:38 PM PDT 0 recs
Dude what the fuck.
Washburn pitched great today and he would be a great addition for the Yankees. With Wash they could have great depth and a proven playoff pitcher for the stretch run. IMO I would totally give up an ok CF for a pitcher who can consistently run a low 3s or high 2s ERA over a consistent period of time. And that’s what Wash has done recently. We gave up Jones for less than this; if I’m Cash I would give Gardner and maybe Horne too.
Also, numbers are just numbers; what matters is that Wash has been awesome the last couple of months and with better run support might even have like 12 wins. The Yankees are lucky to get someone as good as him.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on Jul 27, 2008 3:48 PM PDT 0 recs
Yes! Sing it sister!!!
Washburn’s got toughness, veteran gristle, and a horde of other intangies that make him great!!
I hope the Yankees see these awesome qualities and give us Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes in return.
by marinator on
Jul 27, 2008 4:12 PM PDT
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I would expect more than Kennedy for him.
Kennedy struggled this year and is unproven, whereas Washburn is a proven playoff guy who is one of the best pitchers in the game right now. Maybe Hughes straight up, but I think they like him a little too much. I’d prefer a nice package of Melky/Gardner and a young pitcher like Horne. then we could maybe one day replace the awesomeness of Wash and also get a decent 4th OF.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 27, 2008 4:17 PM PDT
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I came up with this!
i don’t feel like digging for it though,
I Have Eight Watches. None of them are fake.
by RafaelCarmona22 on
Jul 28, 2008 2:10 AM PDT
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No offense and I love you like I love Herpes
But please shut the hell up until the trade is completed.
Just because we follow the Mariners doesn’t mean other teams dont take advantage of intelligent baseball fans’ analysis.
by Slica on Jul 27, 2008 3:49 PM PDT 0 recs
If the M's miss the Strasburg Express by one game
Jarrod can officially be to blame.
"He almost has to start. Do you believe in miracles?"
by Torgen on Jul 27, 2008 3:54 PM PDT 0 recs
This “gem” was nothing more than a classic Ryan Franklin Special
I missed the part where I tried to put my hand through the wall.
And you remember how happy we were to shed Ryan Franklin.
Like a turd that won’t flush…
I fucking hate you Ryan Franklin.
by JI on Jul 27, 2008 4:06 PM PDT 0 recs
A trick for that:
Empty a pitcher of water into the bowl while you flush and away it goes.
by waldo rojas on
Jul 27, 2008 4:39 PM PDT
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Your problem, JI
is that you’re not a “gritty veteran.” Try to get more fibre in your diet and you’ll become a gritty veteran, and all your troubles will flush away more easily.
I did find it interesting that yesterday the Yankees optioned both Igawa and Gardner to AAA. Per the MLBPA, they have 3 days to report to AAA—meaning that, in effect, they will never have to make room for them at Scranton-Wilkes Barre and the ML team can have two more players in the interim. Now, of course, if the M’s were to delay this deal for, say 3 days, the Yankees could be in a little trouble (actualy, they would probably just “transfer” two of their starting pitchers who are not scheduled to pitch for a couple days to one of the lower teams with open spots).
by kva15 on
Jul 27, 2008 5:18 PM PDT
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I dunno
I’m going to use a phrase that generally gets on my last nerve but really, what do you expect them to say? “Jarrod Washburn pitched 8 innings of luck?”
I don’t really care that “Good GMs” should never be interested in Washburn. I care that Cashman IS interested in Wash. This is the same team that gave Mike Mussina another shot at the rotation.
I probably couldn’t have asked for a better outing this close to the trade deadline. Of course it’s not a real gem but general public always calls these “gems”. Lord knows we’ve seen enough of them thrown against us.
My only concern is if this somehow leads us to not trading Washburn. That’s where the real stupidity comes in. Washburn will always be Washburn and we’ve already had 2 1/2 years of it. Keeping him doesn’t help us at all. We know we have guys ready to step in and take Washburn’s place.
I don’t care what they say about today’s performance. Just trade him.
by ThundaPC on Jul 27, 2008 4:11 PM PDT 0 recs
Jarrod Washburn pitched 8 innings of suck.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 27, 2008 4:18 PM PDT
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Heighten your expectations
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on
Jul 27, 2008 5:26 PM PDT
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But
Plug this into the equation and you come out with a tRA close to five. That’s below average. Jarrod only allowed one run in eight innings today, but if he made a habit of pitching like this all the time, he’d be a below-average starter.
I know below average is not suck, but suck sounds better.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 27, 2008 5:42 PM PDT
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Also pray that the Sox light up Ponson tonight.
That could help expedite things, because you get people going “God I wish Washburn had pitched instead. Then we would have won because he was awesome!!!!!!”
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on Jul 27, 2008 4:20 PM PDT 0 recs
Surprised Bloomquist didn't start today.
There is this guy over at the PI who somehow draws me into reading his posts about Bloomquist being a better CF than both Ichiro and Jeremy Reed, the latest post claiming Bloomquist could be an All Star, never complains, and if we had a starting 8 (minus C and SP) of WFBs, we would win as many games as we have this year.
Thank goodness this is the only place I discuss Mariners online.
by Slica on Jul 27, 2008 4:21 PM PDT 0 recs
Do we have a GIF of WFB missing the flyball in the 12th inning the other day?
JI/Robert '08!
by Fin on
Jul 28, 2008 12:19 AM PDT
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BTW Shark Week on Discovery Channel.
Related: Kari Byron in a bikini
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on Jul 27, 2008 5:05 PM PDT 0 recs
I don't know who that person is...
but I read it as Karl Byron at first.
by LantermanC on
Jul 27, 2008 5:32 PM PDT
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Kari got married. :(
"Holy Shit, It's Steve Perry lead singer of Journey". "ha, FORMER Lead Singer."
by RafaelCarmona22 on
Jul 27, 2008 6:54 PM PDT
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Ever see the Mythbusters
Where they made an ass plaque? My goodness, she is merely ‘not bad’ to me, but I will never forget that episode for sure.
by Slica on
Jul 27, 2008 10:01 PM PDT
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Yeah that was a good one.
Yeah she gets bonus points for being on one of the best shows ever.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 27, 2008 10:21 PM PDT
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I really hope we get at least 2 B- level prospects this week.
Work sucks, the Mariners suck, I just need some good news, and sad as it is, Melky Cabrera in an M’s uniform would make my month.
by LantermanC on Jul 27, 2008 5:33 PM PDT 0 recs
FJM
just made me realize that Angel Berroa has more ABs for the Dodgers than Andy LaRoche :(
The poster formerly known as Matt.
by bluemax on Jul 27, 2008 5:33 PM PDT 0 recs
Its mind boggling
the Dodgers have so many good young players but they continue to over rely on guys like Juan Pierre, Jeff Kent, Andruw Jones, Scott Proctor, Nomar Garciaparra and now Casey Blake.
It drives me mad.
The poster formerly known as Matt.
by bluemax on
Jul 27, 2008 6:00 PM PDT
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Coletti proves time and again that he's a veteran-monger
by Gomez on
Jul 27, 2008 6:18 PM PDT
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Yeah
the Dodgers have the worst GM Manager combo for their talent.
The poster formerly known as Matt.
by bluemax on
Jul 27, 2008 7:01 PM PDT
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Aren't the Dodgers are like the NL version of the Mariners?
If so, that doesn’t surprise me.
JI/Robert '08!
by Fin on
Jul 28, 2008 12:20 AM PDT
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That would be the Brewers.
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 28, 2008 12:23 AM PDT
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I was thinking more of franchise philosophies
rather than team histories.
JI/Robert '08!
by Fin on
Jul 28, 2008 12:27 AM PDT
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Probably the Astros in that case then.
Although they have no talent to begin with.
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on
Jul 29, 2008 10:07 PM PDT
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On one DBacks board, I remember seeing a post that said something alone the lines of:
“If we end up winning this miserable division, Ned Coletti should be team MVP.”
One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power
by Goose on
Jul 28, 2008 8:44 AM PDT
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Matthew/Graham/Jeff
What happens if you do a correlation of ERA (or RA) = a(Strike Rate) + b(Swinging Strike Rate) + c*(Ground Ball rate) + d for the last 3-5 years? Would this be better or worse than using something like FIP? Would all these be statistically significant? Are there others that would be statistically significant?
by Edgar for Pres on Jul 27, 2008 5:56 PM PDT 0 recs
I ran this test awhile back.
I have to run to soccer right now, but I’ll post a summary later tonight.
by Matthew on
Jul 27, 2008 6:15 PM PDT
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Better. Yes. Yes.
Over a 15 year study span using Retrosheet data
R2 of FIP to FIP was 0.15
Using a stepwise subset selection with a threshold probability of 0.05 to enter and leave the model yielded six qualifying variables:
strike rate
swinging strike rate
and the four batted ball types: gb, fb, ld and if.
and using a combo of those six can bump the year to year+1 R2 up to 0.25.
by Matthew on
Jul 27, 2008 8:33 PM PDT
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Does Ponson getting his butt kicked by the Redsox
help our Jarrod case at all?
by LantermanC on Jul 27, 2008 6:20 PM PDT 0 recs
I doubt it.
I think the Yankees are fairly firm in their offer for the time being, whatever that offer may be, and I don’t think they’re likely to alter it until Thursday. I think the M’s realize that Washburn is about all that’s left, he’s who the Yankees “want”, and they have absolutely nothing to lose by hoping the Yankees blink and cave. If another option presents itself, or if the Yankees hold firm until the deadline, the M’s will take the offer.
FanShots are underrated.
by acblue on
Jul 27, 2008 6:40 PM PDT
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I wonder how much money of Jarrod's contract
we’d have to pick up, to get a Melky or that other guy?
by LantermanC on
Jul 27, 2008 6:42 PM PDT
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I would think its more us getting Igawa...
than taking on some money for Wash.
I would have no idea why the Yankees would need us to take on some money for Washburn.
Igawa must feel great that the two biggest Japanese attraction cities in the US are fighting over who DOESNT get him.
by Slica on
Jul 27, 2008 10:04 PM PDT
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In any event,
Sidney Ponson: IP 4.0 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1BB 1SO 1HR
by ThundaPC on
Jul 27, 2008 7:24 PM PDT
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Funny how Joh had his one of his best, if not THE best game he's had in weeks
on the day when a pitcher who’s thrown him under the bus nearly the entire first quarter of the season possibly makes his last start as a Mariner.
"Hole in one, eh?"
by Coach Owens on Jul 27, 2008 6:51 PM PDT 0 recs
I'd call it "thank God he's almost gone!" syndrome
The Jose Lopez Watch - 124H - 14 BB - 58 G Left
by seattlebruin on
Jul 27, 2008 7:51 PM PDT
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Hypothesis
Sindey Ponson is the second luckiest pitcher in baseball after Justin Duchscherer.
by JI on Jul 27, 2008 8:38 PM PDT 0 recs
No kidding.
He has a job pitching still, imagine that!
by Slica on
Jul 27, 2008 10:02 PM PDT
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Jarrod is Yours and We're Not Taking Him Back
Romanes eunt domus
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 27, 2008 10:28 PM PDT 0 recs
Hay guyz!
I know a team that has LH bullpen help AND a SS to trade…
Sources indicate they may be shopping Andy LaRoche to further bolster the infield or bullpen.
The Jose Lopez Watch - 124H - 14 BB - 58 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 28, 2008 7:31 AM PDT 0 recs
God it's such a simple trade.
It would look good for them because Rhodes is a proven vet and Yuni is !!! at D, and would be amazing for us because they are not and LaRoche is awesome
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on
Jul 28, 2008 7:33 AM PDT
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The best thing Richie Sexson has done for us this year:
Sexson: Washburn would be big help
Yankees first baseman/DH Richie Sexson, who was a teammate of Washburn’s in Seattle until earlier this month, thinks he would work out wonderfully in pinstripes. Said Sexson: “He’d be a great fit, especially in this city. I mean, he’s a winner. He can take the ball anytime. He’s a big-time competitor.”
“I think he’d be up for it,” Sexson said with a grin. “If I had to bet, if things worked out [between the Yankees and Mariners], he would see a fit. This is a perfect team, a perfect fit for him.”
“In the three years I played with him, we never scored any runs for him,” Sexson said. “He should have a lot more wins.”
gently caress yes.
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on Jul 28, 2008 7:32 AM PDT 0 recs
Holy fuck that would be awesome.
Unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll get done, because I think Lee will keep asking too much for a smart GM like Cashman to go for. For fuck’s sake, settle for Gardner already. It’d be perfect.
by Faux on
Jul 28, 2008 8:06 AM PDT
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Must've been retrobution for out-fishing him or something...
My layout.spellcheckDefault goes to 11
by PositivePaul on
Jul 28, 2008 9:33 AM PDT
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What's sad is that Silva is our next Washburn.
We have another 3.5 years of doing this.
by Wilder. on Jul 28, 2008 11:02 AM PDT 0 recs









