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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays

Tiny by Matthew on in Series Previews Comment 450 comments

Seattle: 38-63
Blue Jays: 51-51

GAMES

Game 1: Miguel Batista vs John Parrish*
Game 2: Carlos Silva vs David Purcey*
Game 3: Jarrod Washburn* vs Shaun Marcum

Last time we played the Jays we faced Halladay, Litsch and McGowan. We get a whole new slate of pitchers this time around and the first is a name we all remember. John Parrish was never as bad as most people thought he was and letting him go for nothing was a bit of a mistake if he could have been stored in Tacoma.

Parrish's tRA in Seattle was just 3.38 (SSS) but because he suffered to the tune of a .478 BABIP (yeah, you read that right) he was well vilified here. Was he good? No, but he wasn't terrible. This year though, wow he's been bad (SSS). Just three starts into his major league season, he's throwing just 57% of pitches for strikes and has allowed a fair share of line drives. It really is too soon to tell anything about his major league stats and since I don't (yet) have tRA info on the minors (ETA: winter '08) there's nothing further to say.

I say even less about David Purcey since he has 33% fewer starts than Parrish this year and just 7.1 innings pitched, partly due to just two starts and partly due to him sucking balls in those two starts. He's faced 39 batters and walked 11 of them against just three strikeouts. He's also given up two home runs and missed exactly four bats in 151 pitches. This may be the saddest shut down the Mariners offense has even experienced.

Here's what I wrote last time we faced Shaun Marcum.

Marcum has taken a small step forward so far in 2008 with a slight decrease in balls and upticks in both called and swinging strikes helping to back his improved strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out for him though is the benefit that comes from a nifty .213 BABIP which is due for regression no matter how good the Blue Jays defense is.

All of that is still true except his strike% has improved a touch further, now up two points over 2007 and his BABIP has regressed, all the way up to .230. Nonetheless, Marcum has shaved an entire point off his tRA from 2007 and stands at 3.86 on the year, better than every SP the Mariners have used.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Rod Barajas/Gregg Zaun^
1 Lyle Overbay*
2 Marco Scutaro
S David Eckstein/John McDonald
3 Scott Rolen
L Adam Lind*
C Alex Rios
R Brad Wilkerson*/Joe Inglett*
D Matt Stairs*

John McDonald has hung around the majors for a decade now with a 57 OPS+ thanks to a glove that's 95% of Adam Everett and now the rumor is the Dodgers might be looking at him as a trade target. McDonald currently has a .495 OPS. Come on Lee, sell them/somebody/anybody on taking Yuni.

The Blue Jays don't hit for power, but they're one of the best teams in the AL at taking walks. They get to face Miguel Batista in the first game of the series. Hahahaha. Come back soon Ryan, there's going to be a rotation spot waiting for you.

Now we just have to hope that there's room for both Erik Bedard and Ryan Rowland-Smith in the rotation come August since that would mean no more Jarrod Washburn. Come on Lee, get us out from under that contract. Sure, press the Yanks a bit and try to get something interesting back but come Thursday settle for the salary relief if need be.

CONTEXT

Speaking of trades, the rumors continue to surround Raul Ibanez and while the Mariners should aim high but ultimately settle for salary relief on Washburn (and I have no idea why they would want to package Vidro in that move since that does nothing for 2009), the Mariners should be aiming high and sticking to it with Raul. He's going to be Type A and there's very little chance he'd accept arbitration. That is incredibly valuable. I would want a premium prospect in order to give him up at this stage.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Black Toque
Phillips Brewing. Victoria, BC

Marketed as a India Dark Ale this is like a combination porter and IPA. It looks like a porter, it smells like an IPA, it tastes like a porter, it finishes like an IPA. I was impressed with the back and forth the managed to create while balancing the two flavors of malts and hops. Well done.

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I want to

I feel sad for him

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Purcey's been a beast in AAA

121 Ks to 34 BBs in 117 IP. It’ll be a shutout, but it won’t be a Waechter-class abomination.

by marc w on Jul 25, 2008 11:51 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

J.P Riccardi is a crazy person.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know what team has many young outfielders and needs a SP?...

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Logan doesn't count as a scout.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Park factors for APP are a joke

There’s no way Busch stadium is that detrimental to awesomeness

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I won't deny that; anything in St. Louis suppresses awesome

But by that much? According to my park factor I made after 20 years of studying Busch stadium, their APP+ should be around 110

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well I've already mentioned that I studied it on a different world

As it turns out, that other world was Tralfamadore and I was able to go over there for 20 years and not miss a beat back home on Earth

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

JP can't evaluate hitters. At all.

But he’s great at finding pitchers.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 25, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They did

Adam Lind.

Poor guy just had a rough initial call-up this year, and so they sent him back down. Now he’s up, and hitting well.

by marc w on Jul 25, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait should we offer Raul arbitration?

We didn’t offer Jose Guillen arbitration and that worked out all right…

by LantermanC on Jul 25, 2008 12:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ok

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jul 25, 2008 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That shit was tight son.

/fo shizzle

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Incidentally, I hate how if you hang around a person long enough, you start to pick up their mannerisms.

The Security Officer that works the same shift that I do, calls everbody “son”, even though he’s just 25. And now I’ve been doing it recently. Goddamnit.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I find dialect, speech patterns and the like fascinating

so I tend to emulate people I’m around a lot as well.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 25, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only one I successfully fended off being added to my lexicon

is obnoxious bostonian. I’ve been known to mix y’all and ayuh in the same sentence though.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Y'all is a perfectly cromulent word.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 25, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a colloqualism.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 25, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Son is permissible

I loathe people who use “kid”.

by Jeff on Jul 25, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Human interaction doesn't come with texting.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My girlfriend is similar

Kind of one of those girls that hates girls, you know. They always complain “Ugh, girls are such bitches” but then are all nice up to their friends.

JI/Robert '08!

by Fin on Jul 25, 2008 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, there are women that *don't* do this?

I thought it was a requirement along with..you know… the other thing.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My world view is going to be shattered if it turns out

that I just had the bad luck to meet assholes and bitches all my life while in reality all people don’t actually suck

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

All people suck.

They just suck in different ways.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 25, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

whew.

Self-identity not completely crushed.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never even thought of this before

but its so true.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 25, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word, yo.

JI/Robert '08!

by Fin on Jul 25, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which one, alright or allright?

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alright

I’m an all right kind of guy.

by Jeff on Jul 25, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought that was what was agreed upon as well.

Hence my inclusion, as I normally try not to partake on the off topicness.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing's ever going to be 100% on-topic

I would like it if the thread were much more on topic though or, if nobody actually cares/finds the stuff interesting, then I can adjust my effort level to match that.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's the team's fault.

I like the previews, but really, what the fuck is there more to say than “Good job, I like these?’ The games don’t matter.

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I 100% agree

You’re usually really good at explaining everything so there’s normally not many questions I can think of asking

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn me.

Well, thanks. I appreciate the feedback.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same

We just need to have a designated off topic thread each day. Something along the lines of LFoJL Monday’s, JI Tuesdays, NOLA Wensdays etc… The community is one of the main reasons why this site kicks ass but I hate seeing every thread go terribly off topic instantly, especially if effort was put into the post.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brett and I ranted and raved about this at Tuesday's game.

I’m in too good a mood to rehash the whole thing, but needless to say a designated off topic thread is an excellent idea.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think this is a good idea.

I like learning. I like reading the baseball posts. I just feel I’m not able to contribute there yet. But at the same time, I like the community, and I’d like to have a place to continue that.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Jul 25, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

People have always been able to contribute in baseball threads, without being able to fully understand.

LL used to be a place to talk about baseball, with a side order of other things. Now it’s the inverse of that. And it sucks.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Jul 25, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you think it'd work?

I’m not sure if forcing an off-topic thread would produce the same sort of results. I know we’re open to the idea though.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We discussed pretty much all options at one point or another.

My favorite is still the atomic bannings, but Jeff is hesitant.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Irrelevant.

We did just fine in 2005/2006.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

2005 the community was relatively small

2006 we were competive for most of the year and in 2008 losing is holy crap old.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait wrong comment damnit

Supposed to be in reply to

People have always been able to contribute in baseball threads, without being able to fully understand.

LL used to be a place to talk about baseball, with a side order of other things. Now it’s the inverse of that. And it sucks.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

My take:

anything about baseball is good as long as you don’t end up acting like a troll.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just going to come out and say it

Albert Pujols needs to hit some fucking homeruns.

by JI on Jul 25, 2008 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've been really trying to hold off on the DBack talk.

simply because A.I know most people don’t give a shit and B.They haven’t done as well as I hyped.

Plus, you pull it off better than I do. I don’t give a shit about the Cards, but I always like reading you’re posts on them.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I find a difference, besides SBN2.0, from last year

is that, not only are we really shitty, but we’re extremely boring as a team. No offense and slow/retarded pitching can lead to really boring games

Romanes eunt domus

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jul 25, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't mind that so much either

It’s mostly just annoying in the game threads.

by OlSalty on Jul 25, 2008 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about Jeff

but I actually don’t mind it in the game threads that much.

I mind it in the analysis and news posts.

by Matthew on Jul 25, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think game threads are the almost guaranteed to go off topic.

I would never participate in them if the only discussion was about the game.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 25, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

There’s a lot of downtime during the games, and everyone’s just hanging around anyways. I try really hard not to take serious threads off-topic, and I’m going to try even harder in the future. It’s obviously beginning to really bug the mods, and I can understand that.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 25, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Most of the off-topics are started by regulars.

Perhaps if everyone knew how much it annoys the overlords and knew how much they wanted it to stop, it could be self-corrected without too much difficulty. Once the rules are known, self-policing happens quickly here.

by Jed MC on Jul 25, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm fine with the more organic off-topicness in game threads.

What I don’t like is the blatant attempts to steer things off-topic.

by BrianL on Jul 25, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bingo.

Natural progression is fine. Forced off topicness is bad. Some of you guys have almost completely ruined GTE because you’re trying to “out funny” the other person.

Don’t force it.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I feel bad for making rec begging a meme

I was just trying to liven off days with paint and other such thing but it got out of hand just like every other meme

RIP- Robert/JI 08, Recs, Paint, Drunk threads and LL Live Journals.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

God please yes.

Rec begging is fucking pathetic and awful. Holy christ.

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mean jesus, what ever happened to letting the merits of the post stand for itself?

Despite the admonishments around here of people who use the +1 system, people don’t realize that Recs are EXACTLY THE SAME FUCKING THING!

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a joke that got out of hand.

It’s getting better now.

FanShots are underrated.

by acblue on Jul 25, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was the point.

I was getting annoyed at all the fuckin Rec’d posts. The best way to destory a currency is to devalue it.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Puns came later.

And were satan spawn.

by Robert on Jul 25, 2008 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's another thing.

The box has turned into a joke of it’s own.,

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 25, 2008 3:30 PM PDT