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7/23: Open Game Thread

Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Seattle Mariners Game Threads

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, Jul 23, 2008 1:40 PM PDT


Lineup

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

07/23/08 1:40 PM PDT

Boston Red Sox Seattle Mariners
Jacoby Ellsbury - LF Ichiro Suzuki - RF
Dustin Pedroia - 2B Jose Lopez - 2B
J.D. Drew - RF Raul Ibanez - "LF"
Kevin Youkilis - 1B Jose Vidro - "DH"
Mike Lowell - 3B Adrian Beltre - 3B
Sean Casey - DH Jeremy Reed - CF
Jed Lowrie - SS Kenji Johjima - C
Jason Varitek - C Bryan LaHair - 1B
Coco Crisp - CF Willie Ballgame - SS


W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2008 - Felix Hernandez 7-6 18 18 1 0 0 0 119.0 105 44 39 9 41 109 2.95 1.23

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
2008 - Clay Buchholz 2-5 10 10 1 0 0 0 52.0 62 39 34 4 27 51 5.88 1.71

Ours is better.

 

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FELIX DAY MOTHERFUCKERS!!!

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 12:41 PM PDT reply actions  

Watching Ho Ram against the Tigers right now.

I’m glad I get to cleanse my eyes in an hour with The King.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 23, 2008 12:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Woo lineup fun

Jose Vidro .223/.266/.318, batting 4th
WFB .273/.372/.281, batting 9th

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 23, 2008 12:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Our lineup is 65% less silly.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

But...

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 23, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

also

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Jul 23, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Dave is the opposite of Joe buck

and Cooperstown looks awesome.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:15 PM PDT reply actions  

FELIX DAY

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:16 PM PDT reply actions  

Happy again.

I was dragging all day because of the concert I went to last night. It ended late, and it was very smokey in there. I’ll bet I couldn’t pass a drug test if I had to take one, even though all I did was drink beer.

But now Felix is here, my headache is gone, and all the world is sunshine and lollipops.

AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...

by Thingray on Jul 23, 2008 1:21 PM PDT reply actions  

You can get those positive tests overturned.

Ross Rebagliati

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 23, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not really concerned about testing,

I’m just saying it was really smokey, and it wasn’t special effects, and it wasn’t cigarette smoke.

AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...

by Thingray on Jul 23, 2008 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:27 PM PDT reply actions  

So let me guess...

“Finally someone hittable” means Buchholz doesn’t have great results stats, and the M’s need to take advantage.

“Test their bullpen” really is just a second of the first one; if the M’s are successful in hitting the SP, they’ll get into the ‘pen (and hopefully score more)

“Deja Vu All Over Again” If Felix throws a 1-hit shutout, M’s win.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jul 23, 2008 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

You're right, BTW.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey guys!

I just figured out that fielding doesn’t matter in this game! The only things that matter are offense, offense, and pitching!

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jul 23, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, if only the Mariners weren't bad at offense,

bad at offense, and bad at pitching…

The Jose Lopez Watch - 118H - 13 BB - 62 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 23, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sit down asswad!

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:40 PM PDT reply actions  

How are you gentlemen?

All your [BOS] base are belong to us.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 23, 2008 1:40 PM PDT reply actions  

poop

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Holy God, I just got the 3D gameday to work for the first time

this thing is unbelievably beautiful

The Jose Lopez Watch - 118H - 13 BB - 62 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 23, 2008 1:42 PM PDT reply actions  

DP NOW!

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 23, 2008 1:42 PM PDT reply actions  

Come on Felix, throw some trikes.

AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...

by Thingray on Jul 23, 2008 1:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Typical northeast umpire bias

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 23, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Use the Unicode character

♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 23, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

black, red, black, red

and you get Harley Quinn

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is that a real name

or did you just misspell harlequin?

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 23, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Animated Series

and then later retconned into the comics.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

yay

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply actions  

That's better.

Nice play WFB (I could have made that play).

AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...

by Thingray on Jul 23, 2008 1:45 PM PDT reply actions  

That'll work

man I wanted Felix to K Ellsbury and Pedroia back to back though

by ack on Jul 23, 2008 1:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Gosh darn it.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Fuck the Brewers.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:52 PM PDT reply actions  

The hell??

ESPN GameCast is now displaying the expected run value of every situation as batters make outs/reach base

The Jose Lopez Watch - 118H - 13 BB - 62 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 23, 2008 1:54 PM PDT reply actions  

You cant win 1- to -2

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 1:58 PM PDT reply actions  

I say no

Andy LaRoche is going to put the Dodgers on his back and carry them to the WS.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also

shouldn’t a Cardinal fan be not allowed to talk this kind of trash?

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

88 win team on talent.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Winning record!

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

88 win team on talent.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

No.

Those kind of evaluations only work for predicting the future probability. St. Louis was an 83-win team on talent because that is what they did.

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Injuries!

They didn’t have their A lineup on the field until Game 1 of the LDS. Also, No for other reasons.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

If injuries kept players off the field, then the team was an 83-win team on talent.

If those injuries never occurred, then the 88-win team would have happened.

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

BTW, 88 wins is just a guess

Like I have the ability to crunch the numbers. No regular played in 150 games.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I am dumb,

then why don’t you correct me?

You don’t have to be an asshole.

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why is the onus on me to correct you?

Why don’t you ask questions to try and better understand a subject before writing false statements?

by Matthew on Jul 23, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Am I supposed to ask a question about everything?

Because I think I have done enough research to generally know what I am talking about. When it comes to advanced baseball statistics, I am not an expert. But when it comes to the general study of statistics, I know that their purpose is to find the future probability of events.

St. Louis had a record of 83-78. There is no changing this. They may have had a higher probability of being an 8-win team based on talent, but that wasn’t the result they got. Therefore, I can conclude they were not an 88-win team on talent; they were an 83-win team.

Now, do you care to explain why this is wrong? (QUESTION ALERT)

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Appreciate the article. I missed that one.

But one question about it, are their confidence intervals associated with those numbers? Because the 88-win Mariner team might be within the 95% confidence range. For statistics, there should be a confidence range associated with the mean number.

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

For the true talent of the team?

Yes, there are CI but they’re not very big.

For the actual record projection based off the TI? Yes, there are CI and they’re quite sizable, on the order of 5-7 games each way.

by Matthew on Jul 23, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

That is why the purpose of statistics is to predict a future result.

It’s nice to go back and analyze a past event and see what most likely should have happened, but there is no going back to change the result.

This is what is so interesting about baseball statistics. There are so many variables to quantify, it can be difficult to accurately predict the future result. These advanced measures used by our resident baseball statisticians are much better than a random prediction by an ESPN analyst, but by no means are they prefect. It’s the outliers and injuries that make them inaccurate at times.

For example, the 2008 Mariners. I know LL was more pessimistic about this season than most everyone else in the country (concerning W-L). The crazy thing about it, the statistics were not pessimistic enough. But they were more accurate and would have been much closer had this team not regressed so drastically in every category.

Advanced baseball statistics is a difficult science. They are reliable, but like Matthew just pointed out, the confidence intervals for W-L records is about 5-7 games. That is a lot of leeway. However, they are still a better estimate than basing a prediction on previous W-L records.

I guess my point is, going back to the original sub-thread, is that St. Louis’s 2006 team may have had an 88-win team as the mean statistic, but the 83-win result is within the statistically significant range; making the analysis correct, but it proved to be an 83-win team from it’s one and only experiment.

Am I making sense? I am not the best with my words.

by Wilder. on Jul 23, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Have you seen the standings?

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

what about them?

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not fair.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wah wah wah

sports aren’t fair. Look at the shit heap that is the NBA East.

Also 2006.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for taking me seriously.

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

sarcasmdetector.exe

failed to load, Segmentation Fault. (A)bort®etry (I)gnore?

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 23, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

By 3rd order wins

4 of the top 8 teams in baseball are in the AL East.

01 Red Sox
02 Rays
03 Cubs
04 Yankees
05 White Sox
06 Athletics
07 Mets
08 Blue Jays

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jul 23, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

God I wish the Rays played in the NL East...

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Check out that stache

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Go M's Go!

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:03 PM PDT reply actions  

No, no. It's raining here in Tampa

Can’t mow the lawn. My day off looking for something to do besides pay bills.

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I hope your M's do well today.

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

He does that.

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Come on King Felix:

1,2,3 inning here.

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:15 PM PDT reply actions  

I hate CoCo... I really do.

Come on DP here… if possible.

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:17 PM PDT reply actions  

In the future, Pedroia will mean "headache."

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions  

YOWSER

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Ichiro > God

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 23, 2008 2:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

balls

Did Willie Bloomquist's dad die and make you queen?

by JI on Jul 23, 2008 2:23 PM PDT reply actions  

In the future, Ichiro will mean "awesome."

The line it is drawn/The curse it is cast/The slow one now/Will later be fast/ As the present now/Will later be past/The order is/Rapidly fadin'./And the first one now/Will later be last/For the times they are a-changin'..- Bob Dylan

by thebaddancingraysfan on Jul 23, 2008 2:23 PM PDT reply actions