Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

This defense is so... regressing?

The Mariners defense as rated by Plus/Minus reached a low point near the end of May, standing at 36 plays below average through May 26, 52 games into the season. It put the team on pace to finish the season at 112 plays below average, a remarkable 90 runs below average. 90 runs. You know how much 90 runs is?

If we went back in time to 2007 and replaced the bats (ignoring defense) of our middle infield combo of Lopez and Betancourt with the bats (ignoring defense) of Robinson Cano and Hanley Ramirez, you still wouldn't quite get 90 runs of difference. 90 runs is a lot of funking runs.

I noted earlier this month that the defense had been better since that point, slowing the rate of separation from league average and pointing out that it somewhat coincided with Reed's introduction to regular play.

However, we now stand 99 games in and the Mariners team defense, rated by Plus/Minus doesn't sit at -69 as it were if it had kept pace. Instead, it sits at -25, an actual improvement over past numbers. According to Plus/Minus, since May 26th, our defense has been 11 plays above average. That cannot possibly be correct right?

Well, a quick check of team BABIP by month suggests it is. The Mariner pitchers suffered a BABIP of .324 in the month of May after a .298 BABIP April. June saw the team regress back toward that league mean with a .304 number and so far in July they're posting a .274 BABIP number, far better than average.

As to what weights to assign to new personnel and general regression for this improvement I can only speculate, but glancing at the position-by-position figures, it does appear that Yuni has gotten a little better and Miguel Cairo has been a substantial improvement over Sexson at first. Meanwhile, Reed is gobbling up balls like Ms. Pac-Man does 2D dots... or something.

Remarkably, the Ms outfield now rates rather neutral according to Plus/Minus with the majority of the -25 plays coming from the infield. It will certainly be worth watching as this season becomes more and more of a showcase for 2009.

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Raul still sucks.

Mike Cameron recorded 485 putouts in 2003.

by JI on Jul 22, 2008 12:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But again, there's been an assumption that you can put him out there next to

Willie Mays and ca. 2001 Ichiro and the outfield D would still suffer.
We’re now doing what Boston does, and that’s have a neutral-to-above-ave. OF D despite an incredibly awful LF.

This team’s DER was never really about Raul. I think I may have underestimated how much damage Sexson did, but this whole thing makes me think that various metrics may STILL be overrating Yuni. And it also makes me think that Ichiro really wasn’t that hot in CF.

by marc w on Jul 22, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reed's RZR in CF is 1.000 with 10 OOZ (standard SSS disclaimer applies)

Bloomquist .909/8 (SSS)
Ichiro .902/38

Ichiro in RF (.956/13) has been a big upgrade over Wilkerson/Balentien too.

by G_ on Jul 22, 2008 12:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
FootbaLL III (Nov 7th)

Recent FanPosts

Ichiro_small
Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now
Small
Xbox LLive, Pt 3
Clemente_small
OT on a friday morning 11/6
Curry_small
Curiously wondering what the plan is...
Griffeys_last_game_1_small
Is anyone else going to make fun of this picture?
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly.
Hunter_small
Somewhat OT: Kid dies from aluminum bat, family now rich
Small
OFFTOP: 10/30/09
Commproj08_ajones_small
Sounders Playoffs Gamethread

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

1_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff