Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Diego Sanchez and the Dangers of Fame in MMA

This defense is so... regressing?

The Mariners defense as rated by Plus/Minus reached a low point near the end of May, standing at 36 plays below average through May 26, 52 games into the season. It put the team on pace to finish the season at 112 plays below average, a remarkable 90 runs below average. 90 runs. You know how much 90 runs is?

If we went back in time to 2007 and replaced the bats (ignoring defense) of our middle infield combo of Lopez and Betancourt with the bats (ignoring defense) of Robinson Cano and Hanley Ramirez, you still wouldn't quite get 90 runs of difference. 90 runs is a lot of funking runs.

I noted earlier this month that the defense had been better since that point, slowing the rate of separation from league average and pointing out that it somewhat coincided with Reed's introduction to regular play.

However, we now stand 99 games in and the Mariners team defense, rated by Plus/Minus doesn't sit at -69 as it were if it had kept pace. Instead, it sits at -25, an actual improvement over past numbers. According to Plus/Minus, since May 26th, our defense has been 11 plays above average. That cannot possibly be correct right?

Well, a quick check of team BABIP by month suggests it is. The Mariner pitchers suffered a BABIP of .324 in the month of May after a .298 BABIP April. June saw the team regress back toward that league mean with a .304 number and so far in July they're posting a .274 BABIP number, far better than average.

As to what weights to assign to new personnel and general regression for this improvement I can only speculate, but glancing at the position-by-position figures, it does appear that Yuni has gotten a little better and Miguel Cairo has been a substantial improvement over Sexson at first. Meanwhile, Reed is gobbling up balls like Ms. Pac-Man does 2D dots... or something.

Remarkably, the Ms outfield now rates rather neutral according to Plus/Minus with the majority of the -25 plays coming from the infield. It will certainly be worth watching as this season becomes more and more of a showcase for 2009.

Comment 13 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Raul still sucks.

Mike Cameron recorded 485 putouts in 2003.

by JI on Jul 22, 2008 12:36 PM PDT reply actions  

But again, there's been an assumption that you can put him out there next to

Willie Mays and ca. 2001 Ichiro and the outfield D would still suffer.
We’re now doing what Boston does, and that’s have a neutral-to-above-ave. OF D despite an incredibly awful LF.

This team’s DER was never really about Raul. I think I may have underestimated how much damage Sexson did, but this whole thing makes me think that various metrics may STILL be overrating Yuni. And it also makes me think that Ichiro really wasn’t that hot in CF.

by marc w on Jul 22, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Reed's RZR in CF is 1.000 with 10 OOZ (standard SSS disclaimer applies)

Bloomquist .909/8 (SSS)
Ichiro .902/38

Ichiro in RF (.956/13) has been a big upgrade over Wilkerson/Balentien too.

by G_ on Jul 22, 2008 12:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Moar_bacon_small
Everything I Know About Jesus Montero

Recent FanPosts

Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
OTDOD - Early February Edition
Agentejebaox3_small
A Statistical Analysis of Mariners' Fan Support
Small
Who will have a better season?
Claw_small
BA's Top 10 M's Prospects
Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
Munenori Kawasaki Predictions!!!
Small
The Longevity and Future Success of Felix Hernandez.
Small
The present vs future conundrum

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Small Matthew