Series Preview: Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners
by Matthew on Jul 18, 2008 9:43 AM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Previews
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PrintSeattle: 37-58
Indians: 41-53
GAMES
Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs Aaron Laffey
Game 2: Jarrod Washburn* vs Jeremy Sowers*
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Cliff Lee*
Laffey made a mark last year by running Felix-like groundball rates, but for 2008 his groundball rates have retreated like, well, Felix. In the absence of prodigious groundball rates, Laffey has instead fallen back on his mediocre stuff and bad control. Wait, those aren't good things.
Jeremy Sowers is quite an example of the consequences of yielding far too many line drives... and homeruns... and walks.
Unlike these two losers, Cliff Lee is awesome. He throws strikes, he misses a good number of bats, he's reasonably neutral on groundballs, he's below average nowhere.
Likely Starters:
C Kelly Shoppach
1 Casey Blake/Ryan Garko
2 Jamey Carroll
3 Andy Marte
S Jhonny Peralta
L Ben Francisco
C Grady Sizemore*
R Franklin Gutierrez/Shin-Soo Choo*
D David Dellucci*
Looking over this lineup it suddenly becomes clear why the Indians have been so disappointing this season. A couple hitters that the Indians were counting on (Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner chief among them) turned into pumpkins and as we know from watching our own team day in and day out, black holes kill an offense.
CONTEXT
FELIX!
Washburn gets another patsy offense to start against and barring the unexpected get to face the Blue Jays next and avoid Boston. That's going to be the ideal time to deal him though as he closes out the month against Texas. In Texas.
Carlos Silva against Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee is a lefty and it's a day game. That means there's a better than fair chance that Reed and Clement sit. Burke and Willie play. And Maybe LaHair too! The Nationals are off playing the Braves so hopefully Atlanta's star-crossed luck continues and they drop a couple one-run games to the Nationals.
THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:
12th Anniversary Bitter Chocolate Oatmeal Stout
Stone Brewing. Escondido, CA
It's pretty tasty, what can I say? The name and brewer tells you all you need to know.
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Laffey
He’s got below average LD rates, and while his GB rate isn’t where it was, it would rank him what, 6th or 7th in the AL if he qualified? Couple that with pretty good command, and he seems a decent, average starter. Sorry, I’m getting flashbacks to the Blanton debates of yesterday….
Sowers: just another in a long line of pitchers who suck prodigiously, but who have a nice shutout vs. the M’s on their resume. What the hell happened to this guy? He seems to be the guy many thought Cha Baek was – that his ‘good command’ comes at the expense of allowing tons of HRs.
Andy Marte – this is one of the most interesting prospect busts in years, and it’s fascinating that it’s happening at the exact same time as Joel Guzman. They can move Pronk and AsCab, but they’ve still got a huge black hole at an important offensive position.
Laffey doesn't have good command, over 39% of his pitches are balls.
Though he is around average.
Sowers doesn’t have good command either.
Sowers is terrible
that’s why I put ‘good command’ in quotes. That was his ‘skill’ in the minors – a low walk rate. But he doesn’t have the stuff to translate that into the majors… not only are his strikes hammered, but decent hitters don’t chase his pitches outside of the zone. Ergo, huge HR rate, terrible BB rate. Bad, bad pitcher.
On Laffey – I was referring to his half-decent walk rate. To what degree is BB% (percentage of balls thrown) correlated with walk rate? I can see why it would be, but I can also see that it would be nowhere near 1:1. Cha Baek has thrown over 36% balls this year, but I’d argue that he DOES have good command. Not everyone’s Roy Halladay.
Pretty well correlated.
Furthermore, Laffey’s HBP rate is well below average, another strong indicator of !good command and since really the number you want to look at is BB-iBB+HBP you have Laffey at 9.70% of BFs against a league average of 8.68% this year and 7.7% last year against 8.63% league.
Pretty well as in 0.7, or pretty well as in 0.5?
Interesting stuff… cheers.
In another echo of the Blanton debates, what we have on Laffey is a half-season of good pitching (low walks, extremely high GBs), and a half season of a-bit-below-average pitching. We don’t have much of a track record to use to regress these samples toward. So what is he? What’s his career tRA?
Laffey in 2007 threw balls 38% of the time, and walked 2.19/9IP, incidentally.
Around 0.5 I think. I don't have the actual number in front of me right now
but swinging strikes to Ks was 0.62 and balls to walks was below that.
Career tRA is around 4.6, but yeah we just don’t have much data yet.
And again, BB+HBP-iBB. That’s better than just walks by themselves.
I don’t want it to sound like Laffey isn’t valuable. We have a limited sample for now, but he strikes me as a roughly league average pitcher which is damn good for a 23 year old and quite valuable at the league min. I just think his command is overrated (average+ instead of good/great) and unless he goes back to insane GB rates, he’s going to hover around league average.
Thanks for the numbers
and I agree with all of this, by the way.
Did you hear that Philadelphia got a new pitcher yesterday?
it was Blantonly obvious that they would make a move, but that’s not the one I expected!
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Well to be fair, Washburn probably wouldn't have Garnetted Cardenas in any deal
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
And then it Pierces your heart to see it disappear
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Good thing for Billy Beane that Gillick decided to Cassell the farm to get Cupcakes
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions
But Perkins up, Phillies fans - Blanton's not half bad
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Worst case, you can just Posey as contenders in the NL this season and then get the free draft picks!
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe now that they have Blanton the Phillies will be able to protect their House!
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Whatever, they will be Giddens if it leads to any kind of memorable playoff run
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Except he won't be. Parish the thought!
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, those fans are pretty rowdy - didn't they make it McHale batteries one time?
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Ainge you done with this meme yet?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Jul 18, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pippen ain't easy.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Jul 18, 2008 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
=( ok now we're done...
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow, fifteen consecutive Celtics puns!
that was awesome
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
On Marte
I have a bunch of friends who are Indians fans, very up-to-date, saber-friendly guys. They contend he’s never really gotten a legitimate chance to play everyday – looking through his game logs, that seems to be the case. He played about every day down the stretch in 2006 and did reasonably well for a rookie, and ever since then has been jerked around a lot. Not that his recent AAA stats should have forced Cleveland’s hand or anything, as they’ve been rather miserable – but he has more talent than this and I’m curious to see how his season plays out if they do allow him to continue to play every day, as they have basically done this month.
They gave him the opening day job in 2007
and he had a month of solid playing time. Yeah, it’s a month, but the Indians were planning on winning a pennant, and I can understand their impatience.
He’s certainly received a lot of starts, and he’s not gotten the 1-start-a-week treatment that Adam Jones got in 2006. I think there’s something mechanical or injury-related, personally. The indians fans would probably know more, but I’m suspicious of that argument….
Oh, I definitely understand their impatience
I’m just hoping they give him the last 2.5 months of this busted season to really see what he’s got, and I imagine they will… since, you know, they are a smart organization and not the Mariners.
Hey, Indians fan stopping in from Let’s Go Tribe…
You guys are touching on a long-debated subject for us, but patsfan’s buddies have summed it up pretty well. Andy got hurt in 2007, is the greater context, and Blake had two good weeks at third while Marte was out, and we haven’t seen more than a handful of consecutive starts from him since. But the fact remains we’ve got somebody who flatly dominated AAA at 21; that kind of talent (and especially the discipline) doesn’t just evaporate.
The party line has been that the organization has been showcasing Blake (insert “snerk” noise) for trade, leading to Marte’s rather epic non-use this season. This is all a very long way of saying he’s got at least another year before I’d use the word “bust.”
by fleerdon on Jul 18, 2008 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
OK, but
He’s over a full year older than Joel Guzman, the guy I was comparing him to.
I agree that it would be phenomenally odd if he never got better; if he was a AAAA player at 22. But you’ve got to admit, he’s just not developed the way many thought he would.
Aside from a great 2/3 of a season in AAA back in 2005, he’s stagnated if not regressed… in the minors (forget the MLB struggles for a while). I’d buy the argument that his usage pattern has impacted his MLB results MORE if he’d developed as a hitter in the minors, but he’s still the same, albeit with a lower BB%.
Injuries may be a big part of this, it’s true.
thanks for the Indians fan perspective on this….
It gets circuitous, for sure. He’s bad, but he never plays, but he never plays because he’s bad, but he’s bad because he never plays. This front office has gone increasingly radio-silent about injuries, so how much of 2007 was Andy being mediocre and how much was Andy being hurt, we’ll never know. 2006 I’m willing to give him a pass for. Looks to me like a 22-year-old, still ridiculously young for AAA, making some adjustments, getting called up for the hell of it, and struggling as a rookie. It happens.
I’ll say this: The more consecutive starts he gets, the better he’s looked at the plate. Obviously I’ve got a touch of the rah-rahs for Marte - he solves a huge problem for the Indians if he pans out - but I don’t think it’s entirely unwarranted. And, look. This organization has rammed Aaron Boone and Casey Blake down my throat for more than 4 years now. Forgive me if I’m not ready to give up on the alternative.
by fleerdon on Jul 18, 2008 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Another big reason for Cleveland's offense struggling
Victor Martinez and he’s power outtage before he got hurt.
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
Matthew/Graham
You once remarked that Andy Sonnanstine was “what happened when you have good command and an iota of stuff”
What do you guys think is more important to a pitchers success, stuff or command? e.g. do you think it’s more important to be able to avoid walks or to get swinging strikes/induce ground balls?
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
If you include getting groundballs with missing bats
than that one. Fausto Carmona would be your ideal far end of the spectrum here, getting insane GB rates and missing an ok number of bats but being quite wild. Or Tim Lincecum if you want more missed bats and less GBs. The end result is still pretty good.
On the flip side, a guy who doesn’t walk people but doesn’t miss bats and has a neutral or worse GB ratio would be like Paul Byrd or 2008 Greg Maddux. Pretty mediocre.
So I guess that leads to the obvious follow-up:
What if you take GBs out of the equation?
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Much closer call then, I'm not sure which is more important.
Well, in a vacuum a walk hurts more than a K helps, but we’re not talking a 1:1 ratio here.
That's a really interesting case
Given how scouts always hated Sonnanstine’s stuff (there’s a reason he went in the 14th round of the draft out of college)....
Sonnanstine’s garnered swinging strikes on just shy of 7.3% of his pitches. Laffey’s at 6.8%.
Sonnanstine’s average fastball clocks in at 86.8 MPH. Laffey’s at 86.6.
I’m not denying that there are differences here, and they probably matter. But we should keep in mind how razor-thin these gradations are.
Sonnanstine avoids the ‘stuff’ problem a bit with genuinely good command, of course.
Worth noting that the swinging strike difference was far more pronounced last year.
Andy: 9.2%
Aaron: 5.7%
but yes, the main difference between the two is the Sonnanstine has good/excellent command while Laffey just doesn’t. I’d break it down thusly on a 20-80 scale
Stuff (Miss bats) – Control (throw strikes) – Command (GBs, Avoid LDs, etc)
Andy: 55 – 70 – 45
Aaron: 45 – 50 – 65
Yeah, and at the risk of making this thread more about Andy than the Indians,
what do you make of Sonnanstine’s plunging StSw% and K rate this year?
Might be regression, might be pitching more to contact (his ball% is down too) because the defense is better,
might just be random noise.
Is Cliff Lee due for some regression in the 2nd half of the season
or has he just got it figured out?
Obviously it won’t be against our offense, but I have to think that he’s not going to hold up at his current level of performance for the entire season. His GB% and GB/FB being well above his career lines somewhat support this theory (although its only a half season worth of data).
If someone does something exceptional over a small sample
expect heavy regression unless there’s convincing evidence that something has changed.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 18, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Cliff Lee = my favorite LHP Indian since Brian Tallet.
"Holy Shit, It's Steve Perry lead singer of Journey". "ha, FORMER Lead Singer."
by RafaelCarmona22 on Jul 18, 2008 12:16 PM PDT reply actions
Cliff Lee = should be Chinese with a name like that
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Heh...
Chinese/Korean families like the name Clifford
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Also,
I’m thinking about going to the Stone Sour Fest this weekend. Don’t know if I’ve ever had a sour beer.
If you end up going
you’ll be seeing a certain lady twice in three days.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 18, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Man, you're dedicated. At least you'll get some good beer this evening.
Some friends of mine are also going to the Stone 12th Anniversary Party thing in August, but I can’t make it.
Do they sell that stout in Seattle? Whole foods maybe?
And how does it compare to Young’s double chocolate and Old Rasputin?
...and now I'm here
Yes. Yes.
Different, but on the same overall level.
Excellent. I will mosey over there shortly.
I picked up a somewhat random assortment of Aventinus Eisbock, Ayinger Celebrator dopplebock and Delirium Nocturnum a few days ago. I should pick up more and make it a taste filled weekend.
...and now I'm here
Not the biggest fan of Delirium Nocturum
but perhaps it’s jsut because Delirium Tremens and Delirium Noel are so fucking fantastic.
I did the same thing (WF trip 2 days ago) and nabbed the Stone, Hale’s 25 anniv, Belhaven Wee Heavy, Dupont Saison, Dogfish Head Immort Ale, a Kolsch I cannot remember, Orval and something else I think.
Crap...cancelled the comment... long story short,
it’s ‘Saison Dupont’ not ‘Dupont Saison.’ I like it, some hate it – there’s a citrus taste to it that can almost taste like grapefruit.
Have you tried the Hale’s kolsch? Nice stuff.
I just grabbed Laughing Buddha’s Pandan brown ale, some Tennents lager (brought it back from scotland), and Victory brewing’s Prima Pils, which so far I’m pretty impressed with. Also been having a lot of belgian strong dark ales to balance the light stuff.
If you’ve got an opportunity, I’d love to hear your thoughts on how Wee Heavy compares to Traquair House’s Jacobite Ale.
thanks for the correction.
I have tried Hale’s Kolsch, liked it. FWIW, the something else was Bear Republic Hop Rod Rye Ale, which I’ve heard good things about.
Victory makes some great brews. I haven’t have anything from Traquair House yet.
Hop Rod is out of this world good.
Bear Republic is one of my new favorite breweries.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Going to the bar tonight, and my first purchase will be a pint of Racer 5 IPA.
That’s the only one I’ve had, but I quite enjoyed it.
That's really good stuff as well.
They’ve got another one called Red Rocket Ale that I’m dying to try, but I haven’t seen it around. I can’t believe I still haven’t been to Bottleworks.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Boy that's a crime.
I do a $100+ run there at least once a month.
I'm really, really lazy and don't like leaving the Greenwood/Ballard/Fremont area.
I just need to time it with a Trader Joe’s trip sometime soon.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
It reminds me of the three horrible years I spent working in the U-District.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Looking at your post, though
that is rather dumb. I tend to organize Seattle into to really weird chunks and Wallingford falls into the U-District/Roosevelt chunk for whatever reason. I think I’ll head there after wok today.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions
*Freemont
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Bizarro cafe - Wallingford. Stone Way.
They had it a week or so ago. And I know that’s relatively close to you.
well, it's not that cheap, and they don't have burgers
So.. uh, maybe not.
Smith has it, but I don't believe it's on tap and it's marked up considerably
I could always get it at the store, of course.
I absolutely love Prima Pils.
Hop Devil is great as well, and Storm King is not to be missed when it’s in season.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, one of the revelations of this summer.
A really nice brewer in small-town suburban philly?
Philly has other breweries...
like… umm…Yuengling!
and… uhh…
The guy that owns our practice space turned mme on to their stuff.
His knowledge is of stouts and porters and the like, while mine is of IPAs and European beer, so we can talk for hours, much to the chagrin of my teetotaling drummer.
But yeah, Victory is great, great stuff. I also picked up a Speakeasy Big Daddy IPA Wednesday night and went back for another last night, which is rare for me. I like to mix things up, but it was really, really excellent.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
We're working vehemently against that "fully functioning" part.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
Partially functioning is sufficient.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 18, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Not when you take into account my plans for tonight.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
I'm planning on medical advances within the next 30 years allowing me to swap out livers.
Good thing I saved some of my stem cells!
My liver applied for a new job 10 years ago
because I was overworking it. It didn’t get a new job, so now I abuse it that much more for its disloyalty.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Disloyal organs must be punished.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
This is the operating philosophy of my life.
at least as regards beer.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I sometimes throw shots in there if they've been really subordinate.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
Class will be in session tonight.
Right after I finish my softball game.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
You're at risk of having "non-functioning" though, right?
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
Different than partially fuctioning.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 18, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Well they are partially functioning.
They’re just in danger of going from that to not functioning if I don’t take care of myself.
I freaked out in the shower the other morning
because my skin looked really, really yellow. Turns out it was just the way the light was reflecting off my shower curtain in such a way that it tricked my eyes, but that was a scary few seconds.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I imagine that would be quite the scary phenomenon.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 18, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
What's sad is that my first reaction wasn't fear for my health
but “Oh shit, I can’t drink beer anymore!” I am absolutely terrified of developing a gluten allergy because for this very reason. Wine is great and all, but beer is one of my three favorite things in the world.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
They have it at the Ballard Fred Meyer, Ballard Market and Greenwood Market.
I’m picking some up today on the way home from work, so you’d best try and hit the Fred Meyer before 6:00 if you plan on getting it there.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 18, 2008 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I lit my own hair on fire.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
Michael Jackson style accident or Richard Pryor style?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
It's damn good soda.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
I was not.
My dad told me.
The bad thing about going to Europe: no baseball.
The good things: no Mariners, able to drink
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on Jul 18, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I think my life would be better without the Mariners
The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left
by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
It's hilariously retarded.
However I have ~3 years 3 months before I reach that point.
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on Jul 18, 2008 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Get off my lawn.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
he'll leave soon, he's got a curfew.
kids. feh.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I just wish he'd pull up his damn pants.
AKA "BRO-RAY" according to drunk Graham...
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