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Seven Things I'd Love To See In The Second Half

Listed in no particular order, and trying to remain as realistic as I can:

(1) Jarrod Washburn gets traded. I don't care what we'd get back. I wouldn't expect anyone to give us much of anything. That's fine. All I'm looking for is sweet sweet commitment relief. Washburn is a mediocre pitcher getting paid like a good one through the end of next season, and removing him from the rotation would allow us to fill his slot with someone far cheaper but equally effective, freeing up money for a bigger splash. Rule of thumb: never let yourself get into a situation in which you're paying a lot for something you could get elsewhere for a fraction of the cost. Should you find yourself in one of these situations, it is imperative that you work tirelessly to get out of it.

(2) Felix gets his groundball groove back. Between 2005-2007, Felix posted a GB% of 61%. So far in 2008, it's dipped to 51%. That's bad, because the extreme groundball tendencies were a big part of the skillset that made Felix such an awesome prospect. The good news is that he's been up at 62% over his last five starts, but small samples mean very little, so all we can do is hope that this trend continues over the final 2.5 months. A Felix with tons of groundballs is a guy I want to watch for the rest of my life. A Felix with fewer groundballs is more vulnerable. And I don't like the idea of a vulnerable Felix.

(3) JJ comes back with a vengeance. Aside from just being awesome to watch, a healthy, effective JJ Putz gives this team a lot more flexibility going forward. It allows them to either (A) kick off the Morrow --> starter transition, or (B) leave Morrow as the closer and ship JJ off for something shiny. And both of those would have the potential to provide a substantial return. Honestly, this team misses JJ in the worst way.

(4) Jeff Clement heats up. So far, Jeff's been swinging at too much garbage and - not surprisingly - missing a lot of it. This isn't a huge problem, because you can generally expect even the most talented prospects to go over their share of bumpy roads early on, but considering how much Clement means to this organization in both the medium- and long-term pictures, it'd be nice of him to start putting things together. Especially if this team intends to compete in 2009. Jeff, we've seen your rough adjustment. Time to put that behind you and become the hitter we all know you're capable of becoming.

(5) Jeremy Reed heats up. I can talk about starting Reed in center next year all I want, but it isn't going to happen as long as he's a pile of crap at the plate. Nor should it. The idea's always been that Reed's a capable fielder who's entering his physical peak, so in theory he should be able to translate enough of his AAA slash line to the Majors to get by. However, it's high  time we stop talking and he starts doing, because if he remains an easy out, the organization will want to find somebody better, and quality CFs are tough to track down. .270/.330/.400, Jeremy. It's all I ask. Make believe every stadium's in southern California and start hitting the ball with a little more authority. God knows you may never get another chance. Seize this one.

(6) One or both of RA Dickey and RRS becomes an effective #5 starter. Assuming Morrow won't be seeing the ML rotation any time in the immediate future, these are our two big in-house candidates to start next year for dirt cheap. And in case you're not familiar with how valuable it is to have a decent starter who barely makes any money, allow me to be the first to tell you: it's really valuable. Especially given how this organization has historically thrown money around to plug holes in the rotation. Establishing Dickey, RRS, or even both of them as reasonable back-end starters would do more good for this team than I'd be able to explain in one of these little paragraphs. So, root for it. The more answers we get to questions about the future, the easier it'll be for the new front office to build a good team.

(7) Felix signs a long-term extension. Felix is open to re-signing with this team. He's always been open to it. I don't know why, mind you, but I'm not making this up. Bavasi just passed him lowball after lowball until negotiations eventually came to an unspoken halt. And that's a pretty God damn stupid thing to let happen when you're a GM with a reputation for locking up young talent to long contracts. Of all people, how is Felix the one that Bavasi missed? Anyway, Bavasi's gone, so hopefully Pelekoudas and/or whoever succeeds him is more willing to give Felix what he's worth over the next four or five years. Because not only is Felix the most exciting player on the team; he's also one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and allowing him to enter free agency after 2011 would deal a blow so severe that I honestly don't know if I could recover. Give the man what he wants. For God's sake, YOU SPENT FORTY-EIGHT MOTHERFUCKING MILLION DOLLARS ON CARLOS SILVA. Playing hardball with Felix after having willingly bent over for countless inferior talents in the past would arguably be the biggest blunder in the history of the organization, and precisely the sort of thing that would jeopardize my attachment to the team. Don't let it go that far. Freaking pay the man already. You'll be happy you did.

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Bedard needs to go hoopty

We gave away so much for Bedard, I just want to see him become either a valuable long-term asset to the team, or a valuable bargaining chip by this offseason. Best case scenario: he has a great second half giving him big trade value for a team that wants him for a full year. If not, the M’s need to stick with him through next season to see if he has any value at the trade deadline.

I’d also accept Bedard becoming the unbelievable #1 starter Bavasi’s fevered imagination built him up to be…and him signing an extension.

by short on Jul 18, 2008 12:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So,

How much should Felix get in a long-term deal, and how much would he get if he hits the open market?

Agreed, that would be mind-bending idiotic to let Felix get away.

by craig3410 on Jul 18, 2008 1:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't want to even entertain the possibility of Felix's value in free agency.....

I would never watch this team again if that were allowed to happen, of all the stupid moves over all the years that would be by far the stupidest considering how much money we have thrown at shitty players.

by OlSalty on Jul 18, 2008 1:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trust me, it's hypothetical.

Not even the Mariners are that stupid.

But, hypothetically, would a pitching starved team give him A-Rod money? It’s given that he’ll blow Zito’s contract out the water.

by craig3410 on Jul 18, 2008 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meh, he's 22, he's got immense potential, and while he hasn't quite developed into his potential yet, he still has many years of growth ahead of him

His free agency demand would be rather epic.
w
But still, how fucking stupid would a team have to be to let an extremely young pitcher like Felix with extremely high upside who is already pitching well while being nowhere close to his peak just walk with no returned value? I don’t even think the Mariners are that stupid, the new GM will work something out. He is a central part of the success of this club and any GM who isn’t Bavasi will realize that.

Oh god, please I hope that I am right…

by OlSalty on Jul 18, 2008 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a feeling even Bavasi would have come around.

He lowballed far longer than he should have, but I think he would have figured out that not locking Felix up long term would have made him look even more of a Goddamned fool than he already did.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 1:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's still a fucking idiot for bluffing on contracts that were good for the team while caving wholeheartedly on contracts that were bad for us

I mean fuck, if I could get inside Bill’s head while he made these decisions I would never need to consume an illegal substance again, because he had the most fucked up rationale I’ve seen in most human beings..

by OlSalty on Jul 18, 2008 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not a whole lot of disagreement on this end.

Just saying that as bad as he was at his job, he probably would have come around before too long.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the challenge, right now

...is getting Felix to accept any long term contract at all. Last I heard, he wanted to go year to year until he hits FA.

So, while he’s under team control, the team must start looking like a potential winner. Otherwise, I’m afraid we’ll see Felix in pinstripes.

by Tom2000 on Jul 18, 2008 3:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is what's been reported in the mainstream media.

Jeff (and others, it should be noted) seem pretty damned sure that it’s not the case, though, and given the way these things have been going recently, I think it’s a safe bet to say that things have changed.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 3:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed all around.

I wonder, though, if Pelekoudas has the clearance to do something as big as giving Felix a long-term extension. I don’t know why he wouldn’t, but I worry that Lincoln and Armstrong might see this as a period of time in which they feel they need to micromanage things. They’ve shown in the past that they’re plenty capable of getting a wild hair up their ass about undeniably talented players and turning sour on them for bizarre reasons. It’s also entirely possible that I’m being paranoid about this.

I don’t have a lot of doubt that Clement is going to hit ( and I think his raw statistics reinforce that belief.) I think Felix is headed in the right direction as far as regaining his top form. The odds are in favor of one of RRS or Dickey turning out to be a solid option for next year (and if not, decent analogs exist that our new, smart front office will take advantage of.) I’m less certain about Washburn going away and the JJ/Morrow situation working out for the best, but I’m fairly confident about both ending well.

With that said, I think Reed’s development (or lack thereof) is going to be the most important thing (Felix aside, of course) to watch for the remainder of 02008. If he turns into a serviceable option in CF, that’s huge. As you’ve said yourself in the past, I think it’s a way bigger deal than a lot of people realize. If he’s an asset, even if it’s only for one more year, it cuts down on the rebuilding time a whole lot, and allows the organization to properly evaluate any internal options and decide where to go from there. If he’s a liability, the odds of a Vidro-esque clusterfuck increase exponentially, and even if that sort of imbroglio is avoided by the new regime, it forces the team to move Ichiro back to CF and fill both corner OF spots or, perhaps more likely, find another option on the open market at a premium position and either pay out the ass or go the cheap route and suffer the consequences. It should be interesting (and hopefully a lot of fun) to watch.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 1:41 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was about to criticize the guy who wrote this, as I didn't think the above post was too long at all.

Then I realized it was you. Guess you wanted to cut ‘em off at the pass.

I root for the two worst teams in baseball, non-ironically.

by esoteric on Jul 18, 2008 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It ended up being longer than I intended.

But I drank some coffee at 9:00 because I thought I’d need it to get through a movie, and I’m still really wired. I used to drink coffee at night all the time, but I made myself stop after 4:00 recently unless there were special circumstances, and it’s affected me more than I would have liked, seeing as how I should have gone to bed an hour ago.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 1:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really think Reed is going to surprise people...

He’ll probably be mostly a league average hitter but with very good CF-quality defense and that makes him an asset.

by OlSalty on Jul 18, 2008 1:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

League average offense with league average CF defense at his cost is an asset.

If he’s above average defensively (and I think he is) it makes him a tremendous asset. I’ve always liked Reed and was bummed when it looked like he was going to become a AAAA player, so I’m rooting for him to succeed for more reason than one. SUbjectivity aside, though, I still think how he fairs for the rest of the year is going to be pretty damned important to 02009 and beyond.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm surprised "Release Jose Vidro"

isn’t on there.

"Hole in one, eh?"

by Coach Owens on Jul 18, 2008 2:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it'd be nice.

But as long as his option doesn’t vest (and it won’t,) it’s not a huge deal. If there was someone else that could be in the team’s long term plans that could take his at-bats, sure, but it’s LaHair (meh) and a bunch of nothing else. So as much as I hate watching him, his going away isn’t all that important in the grand scheme of things.

by acblue on Jul 18, 2008 2:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coach!

Gotta say I agree with you. I’m guessing that Vidro is so obviously not a part of the team’s future that it didn’t show up on Jeff’s immediate radar. It seems unlikely that Vidro’s option is going to vest, so he should be gone in the offseason. And this year’s a waste anyway, so we might as well watch Vidro’s career die a painful death.

That said, I still believe we should expect a slight rebound from Vidro. Not to the point where he will good, and certainly not to the point where he will be an acceptable DH and/or cleanup hitter, but as shitty as he is, he’s also been pretty unlucky. Then again, I expect a rebound to something like a .700 OPS, which isn’t good enough to earn a starting role for a guy who can’t play the field anyway, so it’s moot.

by Teej on Jul 18, 2008 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So ummm....Coach

Did I ever tell you…..that I love you?....I love you….

And I am totally sorry for being mean to you, I was wrong.

by OlSalty on Jul 18, 2008 2:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dawwwwww

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 18, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ehhh

I kind of like what Vidro does to our Strasburg Standing. He’s as good as gone once 2009 rolls around, so his release just isn’t that big of a deal to me.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 18, 2008 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could've made the same argument for Richie

And I would’ve preferred him staying around

I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.

by ralphie81 on Jul 18, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A pony, Jeff

You forgot to ask for a pony.

by Tom2000 on Jul 18, 2008 3:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think we all can agree that if Felix goes to Free Agency, Lookout Landing will follow him.

And if he does(god please no), wouldn’t it be awesome for him to be the first true big free agent signing in Rays history?

Or imagine this 2012 rotation: Felix-Webb-Haren-Parker-Owings(or whoever)

One Vision, One Purpose
Peace Through Power

by Goose on Jul 18, 2008 8:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jarrod Washburn gets traded.

For some reason much of VEB thinks he’s an average SP that’s run into a bit of hard luck and that a change of leagues would be a big boost going forward. With Looper and Pineiro on the team, you are only allowed so many more shitty pitchers in the rotation.

by JI on Jul 18, 2008 9:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But you do have to admit....

...that going to the NL would really help Washburn.

My layout.spellcheckDefault goes to 11

by PositivePaul on Jul 18, 2008 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Superficially

it’s not like he’d actually get any better.

by JI on Jul 18, 2008 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, he's close to average...

He’d be an average SP in the NL. Maybe even better than that.

by Matthew on Jul 18, 2008 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's currently about 7 runs below AL average per 200IP.

But since the NL’s tRA is higher AND they have worse hitters I could see him making that up pretty easily.

by Matthew on Jul 18, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over/Under question for all ya'll

If Felix signs an extension would you be happier than when Ichiro did?

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jul 18, 2008 11:10 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I doubt I'll react much.

I’m operating under the assumption that he signs an extension within the next 365 days so when he does it really won’t affect me.

by Matthew on Jul 18, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hunch or data ferry insider info?

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Neither.

I find it impossible to get out of bed each morning under any other assumption.

by Matthew on Jul 18, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

He just won’t be able to get out of bed – as long as we make sure there’s a hot chick there with him, I’m not seeing a problem.

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

See, I'm sure that'd get you out of bed!

Problem solved.

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jul 18, 2008 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need a picture of a ferry horn

with the caption “the ferry has SPOKEN!” or something for Matthew’s more authoritative comments

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 18, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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