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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin And How The Pac-12 Missed Him

The Strasburg Four, At the Break

Tiny by Matthew on in Looking Ahead

TeamWLW%GBΔRL10
Washington 36 60 .375 -- -117 2-8
Seattle 37 58 .389 1.5 -63 4-6
San Diego 37 58 .389 1.5 -91 4-6
Colorado 39 57 .406 3.0 -88 4-6

We have our work cut out for us as Washington is truly a horrific team, but besides the AL advantage we get that I mentioned before there is another key aspect that could affect this race; the trade deadline.

Washington has zero enticing assets so they're pretty much going to stay as they are. However, of the other three teams, Seattle probably has the most pieces to deal. The Rockies really only have Fuentes and the Pads might slough off Wolf and/or Maddux, but the Ms have already ditched Sexson (which actually helps us Strasburg-wise) and could lose the services of Washburn and Ibanez within the next few weeks which would be the rare win-win; helping us lose now and win in the future.

There's one last bit of mixed news as well and that comes from BaseRuns. The good news is that according to it, The Padres have actually played like a 74 win team and the Rockies a 75 win team; both well above our own 68 win performance. The bad news is that the Nationals are at a 59 win pace and there are two other teams to keep an eye on, the Pirates and Astros at 63 and 67 wins respectively.

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Well at least we have some kind of pennant race to look forward too...

and a BABIP question – when doing expected BABIP, for something like PrOPS, do they just take a guys LD/GB/FB/IFB distribution and calculate expected hits on each to determine expected BABIP? How does HR/FB ratio work there?

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 8:10 AM PDT reply actions  

Not sure how PrOPS does it

but generally just LD% + .011 for a rough guesstimate at BABIP.

by Matthew on Jul 15, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I knew that part, I'm just trying to see if there's a better way to estimate BABIP

also, what’s the league average for IFF%? That’s the one thing I can’t seem to find. HR/FB as well. I seem to recall someone saying that IFF is ~8% and HR/FB was ~11%, but I could just be hallucinating those numbers too.

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it is

turns out, it was probably a lot easier/faster just to do the calculation rather than ask the question…

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

OK, so I ran my idea on Beltre

starting with his fangraphs page

Then I removed HRs from the equation, separated IF and OF flyballs and recalculated his balls in play distribution and came up with the following
LD – .2294
GB – .4017
OFB – .3350
IFB – .0339
which represent fractions of balls in play of each type. I then took the xO data Graham used for the tRA calculation, and calculated the following values (expressed as percentage of ABs which end with balls in play)
Expected hits on LD, expected outs on LD, xH on GB, xO on GB, xH on OFB, xO on OFB, xH on IFB, xH on OFB.

For the hits, I came up with
LD – .1594
GB – .0755
OFB – .0569
IFB – .0005

This gave a total xBABIP of .2924. This make any sense?

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

-1000 points for using the word "guesstimate"

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 15, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd like to add that I hate metrics that are based on lock-and-key data or formulas

How can anyone else validate the logic or methodology? We have to take someone else’s word for it.

by Gomez on Jul 15, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Top Heavy Draft

The early reports on the next draft class suggest that it is pretty top heavy, with a group of about 5-7 players who are all legit potential #1 choices.

Actually, Strasburg isn’t even the consensus top college pitcher, as both Kyle Gibson from Missouri
and Alex White from North Carolina are excellent prospects. Grant Green from USC, Dustin Ackley from North Carolina, and Kentrail Davis from Tennessee (draft eligible sophomore) are a few of the top position players. The prep talent is still so volatile it is pretty difficult to pick out a top guy.

Who knows how things will change between now and next June, but the next draft could be sorta like this last one, without a consensus top player. And most would argue that Strasburg, Gibson, or White would have all likely been the #1 overall if they were eligible this year.

It could be a great year to have a top-3 pick. Every year there is a part of the first round of the draft where there is a big drop in talent. This year it was at about 7 (although Justin Smoak fell). When we picked Clement, it was at 2 (Gordon and Upton being on a separate tier). In 2007 it was David Price, then everyone else. Hopefully the M’s will be among that top echelon this year, regardless of where they pick.

However, getting the #1 pick is the best way to ensure they get a great player.

by Jerry on Jul 15, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we get rid of Raul

it wouldn’t be a win/win, it’d be win/win/lose, win by losing more games, win by getting a prospect, and lose by making game threads less fun because no more awesome defensive gaffes for gifs.

by LantermanC on Jul 15, 2008 9:36 AM PDT reply actions  

Haven't you learned from Richie?

He’s gone, but the logo is forever. Same with Raul and the gifs.

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but newer funnier gifs are always fun.

Raul isn’t getting any younger or better at defense. The way I look at it, the way he is now, is the best he’ll ever be at playing defense. The gifs can only get funnier.

by LantermanC on Jul 15, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Friendly visitor from Gaslamp Ball....

...well, not that friendly…after all, you guys are our most hated and bitter rival.

Hate to burst your bubble, Matthew…but you might want to check those standings again. You guys don’t have sole possession of 2nd place in the Strasburg. The Padres are 37-58 with a win percentage of .389…just like the Mariners.

Unfortunately for you guys, we still have three games with the Nationals at the end of September in DC that we can lose. If you guys wanted to win the Strasburg so bad…you should have thought of that before you took 5 of 6 games from us this season.

Mr. Strasburg is staying right where he belongs…in America’s Finest City.

by Drama on Jul 15, 2008 11:59 AM PDT reply actions  

We'll just kidnap him

LL has a surprisingly large San Diego population

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

What?

How does that work? You’ve kicked our asses in ‘08…

by Drama on Jul 15, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Unreal...

You guys take five of six from us and still get the tiebreaker…MLB rules at their finest.

When you see our starting pitchers for the Nationals series I really don’t think the tiebreaker will even matter.

Game 1 – Paul McAnulty
Game 2 – Michael Barrett
Game 3 – Bud Black

by Drama on Jul 15, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well you could always put H2H as the first tiebreaker and previous season second

and since most AL-NL pairings don’t play, it would go straight to second tiebreaker and still make sense =/

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Second pick wouldn't be the end of the world

Grant Green isn’t such a bad consolation prize. He’s a 6-3, 180 lb. SS. He’ll be a junior at USC next year and hit .390/.438/.644 as a sophomore. Out on the Cape for his second year, he’s going insane: .398/.484/.573 through 103 ABs. If he keeps this up, Strasburg might not be #1 afterall…

"Sit down and watch the game!" www.StopTheWave.com

by ConorGlassey on Jul 15, 2008 12:18 PM PDT reply actions  

I want Strasburg

for… certain rootability concerns…

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Heh

So I posted this when he first came up, and then he didn’t hit at all.

So I went to a couple games in SD, and the only time he played, he hit a HR off Trevor Hoffman. Didn’t hit another HR for a week, and then at the only game I’m going to in Seattle all year, he homered twice. I think it’s a sign!

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

You put the fear of UCLA into him

The closest thing UNLV had to a rival was Nevada, and it must not have been much of a rivalry, because I’d be totally fine with a Wolfpack alum doing well. But having lived here long enough to learn the UW-Coug dynamic, I totally get the collegiate rivalry thing now.

by Gomez on Jul 15, 2008 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

It also helps my love of Strasburg that it's very likely that I'll attend grad school at San Diego State

And I always thought UNLV’s rival was the NCAA =)

It’s weird with USC though because they are definitely our biggest rival, with Cal being a distant second, but they can’t really decide if we’re their biggest rival or if it’s Notre Dame.

Graham should just buy me tickets to every M’s game from now on so Jeff Clement will hit hundreds and hundreds of homers

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

The NCAA is Jerry Tarkanian's rival ;P

The NCAA couldn’t care less about them now that their basketball team is a mid-major 20 win top 60 pushover.

by Gomez on Jul 15, 2008 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

UW wazzu dynamic

is lame compared to USC, ucla. We’re less than 30 minutes apart. The games tend to mean more on a national level as well.

Er well they used to anyhow.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could get behind Grant Green

for rootability purposes.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could get behind Chase Utley

for rootability purposes

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Chase Utley would be the one player

that I think I’d make an exception for. It would still be hard though.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

So you'd root against Jackie Robinson?

[that’s racist.gif]

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I meant current players

I suppose I could look the other way for Jackie Robinson.

I draw the line at Troy Glaus.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh man I'm drooling right now.

Thanks for this. I’ve been too lazy to look at other prospects, but obviously knew in the back of my head taht there must be at least 5 other awesome prospects. A SS who walks AND slugs?? Yes please.

by LantermanC on Jul 15, 2008 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hi



Senior year – .480/.557/.888 in 269 ABs

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't Greene underrated because of the park he plays in?

I believe Jeff had posted something to that effect not too long ago.

by Susheel Ramasahayam on Jul 15, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Underrated, yes, but that's also because he's a very good defensive player

More of a cautionary college stats example, since he OPSed 1.445 as a senior (or about 900 points higher than Jose Vidro…)

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't know, can't find mention of his stats

according to the alumni list, he played in 1999-2000, but it doesn’t look like he was a batting leader either of those years.

http://www.capecodbaseball.org/

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it's definitely a good question

also, Kahlil Greene put up those numbers as a senior and Grant Green is doing this as a true sophomore, so that makes a difference as well.

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good god that's a beastly line.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 15, 2008 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uh oh... red flag in my eyes

One of his favorite tv shows is ‘One tree hill’, quite possibly the worst thing on tv right now.
His favorite movie is Shawshank though.
Favorite music? Led Zeppelin, Tupac, and Toby Keith… pretty diverse.

by LantermanC on Jul 15, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

That settles it.

We need this kid on our team.

I can talk about OTH and kinda be on topic

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jul 15, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is Washburn really tradeable this year?

I assume he’d be a back-of-the-rotation guy for any contending team. Surely that isn’t the kind of move that’s going to push a borderline playoff team over the edge.

What're ya gonna do with those pies, boys?

by rickpo on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Would you say it's likely before the deadline

and what do you think our chances are of getting something useful back for him (apart from the part where we’re not stuck with him anymore)?

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I can't speak to probabilities.

But on his own he certainly nets us almost nothing of value in return unless we eat salary.

by Matthew on Jul 15, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Which teams would be looking for a #4 or #5 before the trade deadline?

Maybe Texas? Detroit? Colorado? Any others?

What're ya gonna do with those pies, boys?

by rickpo on Jul 15, 2008 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Los Angeles

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Dodgers?

Is Washburn really that much better than Park or Stults? Or even a slightly more seasoned Kershaw?

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

I suppose the Dodgers outfield defense

would help him, assuming Pierre doesn’t come back soon and Ethier continues to start more than Young.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jul 15, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course he's tradeable

just not for a whole lot and certainly not for anything out of any team’s column A. Unless… no wait, the Astros are not contending this year so forget it.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 15, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

How signable is Stas likely to be?

Is it possible that he might drop to an aggressive trader such as Detroit or NY and that we might let go of him even if we had the choice to sign him, because we are pussies? Man, that would really make me go A2M.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 15, 2008 1:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Porcello fell to what, 26th pick?

I didn’t pay much attention to this years draft, but I assume similar moves were made. And we know how dumb our FO is … surely it is a risk that Starsburg may be passed on by the Nationals [and maybe even us] if he is so good and thus, presumably, asking for a lot of money.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 15, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Slotting concerns

and now the commish has basically called off slots. so it shouldn’t be a big deal

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't care who the GM is.

Until I see the FO do something clever, I will assume they are from the same mould as Bavasi and make bonehead decisions.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jul 15, 2008 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Overheard...

Geoff: Hey Jose – show me the face you make right before you devour a hot dog.
Jose: Oh, like this?
Geoff: Perfect!

"Sit down and watch the game!" www.StopTheWave.com

by ConorGlassey on Jul 15, 2008 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why the fuck does he own a glove?

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Jul 15, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Accessories are important?

Nothing punches up a ho-hum outfit like a designer glove.

by JuliaHope on Jul 15, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Spiffy warm-up jacket too

HOW IS THIS GUY NOT A MODEL??

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey Sexy-

Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?

by JuliaHope on Jul 15, 2008 2:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Having seen him up close

He is in fact quite the opposite.

by Gomez on Jul 15, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

This thread needs more recs

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 3:06 PM PDT reply actions  

zzzzzz

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 3:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Crap

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

I was trying to z button down

and hit post on accident

The Jose Lopez Watch - 113 H - 12 BB - 67 G Left

by seattlebruin on Jul 15, 2008 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

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