Vote for Vidro's OPS for rest of year

11 months ago tangotiger Comment 14 comments 1 recs |

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Who the hell voted .900+?

by joof on Jul 11, 2008 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Riggleman.

by BrianL on Jul 11, 2008 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

of non Mariner fans who read Tango’s blog think that Vidro will OPS .700 the rest of the year. And this is really a testament to the strength of reputation in this sport; Vidro was a good hitter five years ago, so people still give him the benefit of the doubt.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 11, 2008 9:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It's more a testament to regression to the mean.

Vidro sucks, but he’s not a true-talent .600 OPS hitter.

BABIP, 2007: .342 and not sustainable
BABIP, 2008: .233 and not sustainable

.700 is a completely reasonable projection for the rest of the season. His LD% is at 18.9, so that BABIP should be somewhere around .300.

I can’t believe I’m defending Jose Vidro. But there it is.

by Teej on Jul 11, 2008 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno', I think it's entirely possible that he's done for.

by acblue on Jul 11, 2008 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure.

His K’s are up, his walks are down. I imagine he’s close to done.

I’m just saying .700 is about where the projection should be. Somewhere between last year and the first half of this year.

Says Dave Cameron:

Marcel, CHONE, and ZIPS all had Vidro projected around a .740 OPS heading into this year, thanks to a pretty significant regression from his flukey BABIP last year. 250 miserable at-bats at this age have to have knocked him down to a true talent .700 to .720 OPS.

by Teej on Jul 11, 2008 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you take his stats, regress them, and apply a generic age adjustment,

Vidro is something like a true talent 269/.333/.374 hitter. The great thing about this poll is that M’s fans who watch him every day may see something, scouting wise, that others don’t. I’m curious to see if the non-M’s-fans think he’s about what his regressed stats say he is and if the M’s fans think he’s much worse—and who’s right.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 14, 2008 6:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that the "generic age adjustment" doesn't really apply to everyone

Certain skillsets do not degrade slowly with age, they completely and suddenly collapse.

by OlSalty on Jul 14, 2008 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is not an MLB player

He doesn’t hit the ball hard, most of his contact results in 14 hoppers to the secondbaseman, rarely hits LDs, or hard FBs. Of course all this is said with disclaimer of having to statistical evidence to back it up—but it feels like he hasn’t hit a line drive in months.

by JI on Jul 14, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I were voting in the poll - which I'm not - I'd say that he's worse that a .700 OPS

His bat just looks ridiculously slow, and he has no footspeed whatsoever. But, his regressed stats say one thing and our eyes say something else. That’s what makes this interesting.

Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.

by salb918 on Jul 15, 2008 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs