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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Canada Blue Jays

Seattle: 22-41
Blue Jays: 33-32

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Jesse Litsch
Game 2: Carlos Silva vs Dustin McGowan
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs Shaun Marcum

Jesse Litsch has taken a big step forward as a pitch-to-contact guy this season, which although is used as a curse around these parts is a pretty smart thing to do when you have a defense as good as Toronto's (best in the majors). He's missing the zone a lot less often than in 2007, but most of those pitches are ending up in play rather than as strikes. It just goes to show what happens when you pair good defense with low walk totals.

Carlos Silva goes to show you when you pair horrid defense (worst in the majors) with low walk totals. See the difference? Dustin McGowan's core pitch results haven't strayed much at all from the previous year, but his overall results have wildly. His homeruns are way down but so are his groundballs; his hits are way up, but so is his line drive rate.

Marcum has taken a small step forward so far in 2008 with a slight decrease in balls and upticks in both called and swinging strikes helping to back his improved strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out for him though is the benefit that comes from a nifty .213 BABIP which is due for regression no matter how good the Blue Jays defense is.

Star-divide

Likely Starters:
C Rod Barajas
1 Lyle Overbay*
2 Marco Scutaro
3 Scott Rolen
S David Eckstein
L Brad Wilkerson*
C Vernon Wells
R Alexis Rios
D Matt Stairs*

Brad Wilkerson is going to destroy us isn't he? It's only fitting that we somehow find ways to get owned by him and Marco Scutaro.

You might be tempted to consider this a poor lineup given their runs scored, just 4.17 a game, but like us, a big chunk of the run scoring problem lies with (not) hitting when they have runners in scoring position rather than across the board lineup atrophy. That's probably going to even out a bit over the season. And hey, here come the slump busters into town!

CONTEXT

22 and 41. That's really bad. It's so bad that they finally took drastic action and fired the hitting coach. If you haven't already, go read Geoff Baker's take on the matter, he does a great job of summing it all up. It doesn't mean anything. Our hitters are still going to suck and at this point in the season, there's not much else to do but ride it out.

You could call Clement back up, but to what end really? He's not going to start over Johjima everyday and that's what needs to happen. He's not going to get PT at first because he's still not even playing there in Tacoma. He could grab some DH at bats, but I'd rather see Ibanez there and Reed in LF so that we can figure out if Reed can be a servicable 4th OF on a playoff contending team.

The only player move I would like to see is the Mariners snag Snelling, demote Wlad back to Tacoma and put Doyle in right field for awhile. This way we push back Wlad's service time enough to gain another year of team control and we get to see Doyle again which would single handedly get me to buy tickets for the first time this season.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Tankhouse Ale
Mill St. Brewing. Toronto, ON

Ironically this is what an American pale ale should be like. Dark orange/amber coloured it comes with a caramel hoppy aroma and a sweet and hoppy taste and a bitter aftertaste. It actually tastes like a beer as opposed to the macro American pale lagers produced domestically.

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We will get swept

Shave and a haircut two ti- hey hold on.

by PhilKenSebben on Jun 9, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions  

It's too bad we're not facing Roy Halladay

that would be the quickest and least painful 1-0 loss ever.

by seattlebruin on Jun 9, 2008 1:03 PM PDT reply actions  

Length of game - 93 minutes.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

At least we have fans that show up at all, unlike empty SAFECO. Whatever.

These Blue Jays are no birds, they are animals! They are the most impressive team we have played all season so far. I look for them to be playoff contenders this year. Scot Rolen absolutely owned the Angels last series with them.

by 44FAN on Jun 9, 2008 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uhhuh.

I still expect Boston to win the East and Tampa Bay to pick up the wild card. The Jays are the third-best team in the AL East.

by BrianL on Jun 9, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

And third-best in the AL East this year seems to mean tied-for-last.

It’s like there’s a floor at .500 and no team can drop below it.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

So, the Jays have an awesome rotation, but we are missing their top 2 guys.

Halladay pitched yesterday (though he has thrown 2.1 relief innings already this season, so we could see him if we go deep into their bullp – who am I kidding?)

And Marcum’s BABIP has already regressed a fair amount. Last time I checked it was .186.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:08 PM PDT reply actions  

False.

I was going to say true, fuiguring we’d get some runs off Litsch, but getting shut down by a guy that goofy-looking would be hilarious, so I kind of expect it.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Scutaro's almost the best hitting shortstop in the AL this season. It's crazy.

There’s a good chance we’ll see John McDonald at least once, too, so that’s a game worth watching. His glovework just isn’t credible.

Wells has been hitting well since he come off the DL, but Rios hasn’t been hitting at all.

Wilkerson’s apparently a good defender. MGL’s numbers say so.

And the Jays hitters see a ton of pitches, so Washburn and Silva are going to have bring some extra suck.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:15 PM PDT reply actions  

It's the latter

just wishing I’d thought of it.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you can't tell

I am incapable of understanding this joke.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

shut up shut up shut up

I haven’t had to conjugate in 4 years.

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I need marc or maybe chinn to help out.

Is it just left at pati?

And censite or maybe censetis to make it active instead of passive?

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well,

look, I know nothing on this. I think the imperative form may be right here; you’re commanding multiple people, so if the stem is something like censeo, then censite is correct.

But isn’t sentio a better verb? I don’t know.

Pati…no, I think it needs a suffix to again make it imperative (future?). Not sure which, but patimus strikes me as off. I’m not being helpful.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I considered sentio

I thought censere was better, but it’s pretty ambiguous. I’d need to go back and consult literature to see if I could find a case (shouldn’t be too hard) of vote being used in imperative form.

Yeah, I was trying to figure out how to do imperative second person future tense of patior and well, gave up and just picked something.

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't an imperative always future?

If so, the plural imperative of patior is patimini, according to the internet

by Graham MacAree on Jun 10, 2008 3:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

There seem to be two

one for a current command, and one for a command in the future.
But I yield to you guys.
And seriously Graham, if you’re still in Canterbrigge, can’t you just ask a classicist? Aren’t they basically like rats over there?

by marc w on Jun 10, 2008 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

And he's been hitting well for two days.

Given that it was a wrist injury, the return of power is a good sign of full recovery.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

We feel that Brett-Baiting is a highly worthwhile activity

And will endeavour to support and assist any further attempts to engage in such an act.

by Graham MacAree on Jun 9, 2008 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

"facist" oppressors?

A REAL spelling fascist would have you for lunch,

by eponymous_coward on Jun 9, 2008 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

whoosh

JI/Robert '08 bringing the Subject Line Spell Check to the people.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

The death star had a huge fucking design flaw.

The people deserve better.

JI/Robert '08 bringing the Subject Line Spell Check to the people.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

JI/Robert/Brett?

You might have to change your position on Brett-baiting, though.

May I also suggest a lime-green background?

by eponymous_coward on Jun 9, 2008 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Then it would no longer be a Ron Paul parody.

JI/Robert '08 bringing the Subject Line Spell Check to the people.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah Ron Paul...you crazy bastard.

He’s just like my racist uncle who comes to Thanksgiving dinners. Always spouting off his conspiracy theories and calling me a “chink” and spitting on my shoes.

by BrianL on Jun 9, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

(I thought the joke was that you thought you were headlining the ticket

and I thought I was, but we never actually acknowledged it, we just displayed it subtlety through our comments).

JI/Robert '08 bringing the Subject Line Spell Check to the people.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

I actually thought of our ticket

was going to be similar to the current US adminstrazomgnopolitcs

by Robert on Jun 9, 2008 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm sure you've posted this before

but is it spelled facist to note your guys’ notable frequency of typos?

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Jun 9, 2008 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Never mind

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Jun 9, 2008 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

"[Litsch] goes to show what happens when you pair good defense with low walk totals."

Sounds like Ryan Franklin, 2003.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 2:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Since leaving the Mariners

Ryan Franklin has a 131 ERA+

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jun 9, 2008 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mariner who can say the same over that timespan

JJ Putz
George Sherill
Rafael Soriano
Jon Huber

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jun 9, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

"It actually tastes like a beer"

Just curious, which are the ‘american pale ales’ that taste like something else? I’ve always thought that US brewers do a damn good job at this task – almost too well, where it starts to stifle innovation/diversification when you know you can churn out more Mirror Pond instead (not picking on Deschutes; they actually DO diversify).

Manny’s, Stone, Mirror Pond… US brewers do this well. You weren’t talking about that god awful Blue Boar crap, were you?

Anyway, it looks like Litsch has made more use of his slider this year, which makes sense: it was his best pitch last year. Can you isolate the results on his slider for 2008? Looks like hitters struggled with it in 2007, but I’m guessing it’s even better this year (judging by his K:BB ratio and hits allowed).
What do you make of Marcum’s increased GB%? Sample size fluke? Or something more, given that he apparently has a very different pitch mix when he’s starting as opposed to relieving?

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 2:11 PM PDT reply actions  

Exactly

But it’s hard to tell around here, given that any dive bar will have Mirror Pond, and plenty will also have Manny’s plus something else.

So what’s a ‘macro’ pale ale? Henry’s Blue Boar? Sierra Nevada?
It seems the macro/micro would be the appropriate filter, unless the claim is that this one typifies the US style (very hoppy, Cascade/Chinook hops).

as for Marcum, that’s my point exactly – he was a FB/curve guy out of the pen, and now throws 5 pitches in true Ryan Franklin style (nice comp). Predictably, his velo’s down and his peripherals look a bit different than they did when he split time in the pen. So my question is, do we know that he’s a ‘true’ fly baller and his GB rate will decrease, or is his GB rate in 2008 closer to what it will be from here on out than his career mark?

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

He said macro, not micro

So I believe he’s referencing the big three of Budweiser, Coors and Miller. You know, the ones that add “lime” and believe they have a superior product?

But I could be wrong.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jun 9, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

You are not wrong, I was wrong.

I was referencing those, but those are lagers, not ales. Slipped my mind.

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wasn't going to call you on it.

Superior baseball knowledge beats beer knowledge. But only by a little bit.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jun 9, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't hesistate next time.

I screw up a lot. I like to be told when I do.

by Matthew on Jun 9, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, okay -

Those things. Yeah, that’s different.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Canadians like beer.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jun 9, 2008 2:17 PM PDT reply actions  

I was in Missouri last week so I survived on Boulevard Brewery products

Their Pale Ale was good, but not as hoppy as I like. Their Dry Stout was great. The rest was meh. I need to try this Tankhouse.

Oh, and as much as I am no Cardinal fan that team plays some damn fine defense.

by Sec 108 on Jun 9, 2008 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

I have no idea how

their only plus defenders play 1B and RF.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

CF?

No? I’ve never seen him play CF, but his numbers are great.

by marc w on Jun 9, 2008 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think it'll hold up.

Ankiel seems like a poor man’s Jim Edmonds’. He’s ok, but he is best suited for a corner.

by JI on Jun 9, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

griffey just hit 600

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jun 9, 2008 4:23 PM PDT reply actions  

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