Shocking Realization
by johnbai on Jun 27, 2008 11:01 AM PDT
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PrintReading through the Baker-bashing post below... and hearing the various reasons why many people oppose trading Ichiro... I was shocked to discover that so many people expect us to compete for the division crown next year. Honestly, I hadn't even considered that possibility. I understand that 2009 is impossible to predict, since we don't even know who the GM will be, let alone who he/she will sign or trade. But please vote below so that I can figure out if there's any LOL consensus on an overall optimism or pessimism going forward.
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I wouldn't dare put any sort of prediction down
since, among other things, we don’t know who’s going to be running the show, but I think the consensus at least among Jeff, Graham, Dave, Derek and others is that it is possible for this team to compete in 2009 if the right moves are made.
I put one down for middle of the pack.
Because it’s the Mariners, so no matter who it is we won’t like them and at best they’ll probably make just enough moves to not be awful.
Now I’m hoping for better. Just not expecting it.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Jun 27, 2008 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I am the one who started this bandwagon
I am a ray of hope in the thundering shitstorm that is Mariner baseball.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
Good question
Might be more important to ask, “Is it even possible to compete in 2009?” since the second question is whether or not to sell off Putz, Ichiro, Bedard for prospects.
I think it's possible
I have very little confidence that the team will make the moves I think it would take to get the team competing again
by Graham MacAree on Jun 27, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
It would be easier to evaluate after the deadline on the off chance we can figure out a way to dump
Washburn for example.
You’re not going to make moves on Bedard or Putz until the winter at the earliest anyways.
Too early to say anything
but the right GM can fix this team without sucking up a whole lot of payroll. There’s a chance for next season, but we’re going to have to wait until a new GM is hired to figure out how good a chance it is.
I predict that we will either perform well or poorly next year
and will win anywhere between 0 and 162 games.
Whoah, ease off that crystal ball there, buddy.
Let’s just wait and see how this plays out before we make any wild assumptions.
by Liebkartoffel on Jun 27, 2008 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm confident they'll compete.
Just getting rid of Sexson, Vidro and moving Ibanez out of LF would substantially improve the team. I’d like to think anyone they hire can not possibly be as dense as Bill Bavasi.
Whither Washburn, Batista and Silva?
They’re still on the payroll, still aren’t very good and still occupying rotation spots.
Silva's the only real long term problem there.
Washburn isn’t completely immovable, and neither is Batista, and IIRC they’ve only got one year to go on their contracts.
Washburn is left handed and has a pulse, so there’s probably somebody dumb enough to take on his contract (although it is possible the only guy who would have done that was fired by the M’s). Batista was reasonably effective last year, and if they can’t find a taker, then worst case scenario he would be a sunk cost for ‘09.
They have a lot of money coming off of the payroll next year, and if they hire a half-way competent GM they should be more than capable of competing for at least a wild card spot.
Those contracts are awful, but this team has the payroll to eat them.
And Silva isn’t good, but he’s worth a rotation spot.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
The payroll's not the big issue
It’s their usage. Since they’re a big part of the payroll, they’re all but assured rotation spots, even if there are more fruitful options available. How do you tell a $9-12 million annual pitcher that he’ll be working long relief because his spot just got handed to RRS or somebody?
"You've been pitching terribly, so we're going to let Rowland-Smith start. Report to the bullpen."
Or something along those lines.
Exactly.
The Mariners have been historically terrible about doing such things, but that doesn’t mean they can’t start. Other teams do it all the time.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Shit, posted before I finished
That said, that Batista and Washburn are coming off the books after next year is good, though Silva remains a concern, plus that puts a low ceiling on the rotation’s potential for 2009.
They're slightly below average SP making (on the whole) above average SP money
That’s not going to cripple you when you put out a $120M payroll.
If Batista is in fact hurt, I think he could be an asset in the bullpen.
And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washurn traded to an NL team for glove oil, assuming the M’s eat some salary.
Now, we’ll see how this all plays out in reality, but because everything is so uncertain, I’m going to hold out hope that the new front office does things semi-intelligently.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Not sure, how did the Giants do it to Barry Zito?
or the Tigers to Dontrelle Willis?
Batista is close to that point if not there already.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
The issue really
is that said expensive pitchers are low upside, high downside guys that limit the team’s potential for 2009. And any guys you get to replace them are, at best, a bit above replacement level. Does a team with Silva or Washburn as their #2 contend in 2009?
(And this assumes that the team does indeed deal Bedard, as they’ve been reported to be looking into doing)
I don't necessarily disagree.
I just think there’s more than one way to skin a cat, and I think the right GM could make all the difference.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would you assume that?
That action is incompatible with contending in 2009. If they deal Bedard, nobody is saying “compete in 2009.”
I'm addressing the issue of competing in 2009 either way
The remark about assuming Bedard is only to head off the potential response, “Well, Silva wouldn’t be the #2, Bedard would be the #2.” Either way, Silva/Washburn/Batista’s relevance in the discussion of whether this team competes in 2009 still stands.
Well, Silva wouldn't be the #2, Bedard would be the #2.
That’s a huge point. You can’t just dismiss it. Silva, Wash and Batista (or a replacement 5th SP) make up the back end of the rotation. You can compete with a back end rotation that’s average to slightly below, especially if it’s headed by two guys who can be well above average.
Competing in 2009 is possible.
Yeah,
you’d like to think that, wouldn’t you?
by Liebkartoffel on Jun 27, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
All depends on the GM
Is it possible? Yeah. The new GM could sign high-price free agents, sell the farm system, win the division, fall on its face in the first round, and then not be able to compete for 4-5 years.
It’s possible that we have a smart GM, struggle for a year, then actually have an opportunity to compete.
There’s just too many variables.
This doesn't seem difficult.
Yes, I'm a girl. Yes, I know baseball. Yes, I even drink beer.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jun 27, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't tell you anyway
I endorse butthol’s attempt to properly integrate with the community
by Graham MacAree on Jun 27, 2008 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Aw, give him a chance sans terrible screen name.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
!
Asking would be unfair, but that’s a nut I’d like to crack myself.
As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I already know it
Ace detective
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 27, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
A lot of work to do
Step 1: send Morrow to AA or AAA to become a starter. Do this now, my fantasy team be damned.
Step 2: DFA or trade (hah!) Sexson, Vidro, Washburn and Batista. Kick them hard as they leave…well Sexson at least for lying about his injury last year…and Washburn for being a douche.
Step 3: Make whatever deals can be made to fill holes at 1B DH/LF and SPx2. Preferably trade players that are themselves easily replaced (Ibanez, Betancourt, Johjima, relief pitchers). If you MUST trade Ichiro, Beltre or Bedard HAVE A FRICKING PLAN FOR REPLACING THEM!! Do NOT repeat the Bedard deal which hurt the team in two ways and was therefore NOT a “win now” trade.
Step 3: Evaluate guys in the system. Can RRS start? Can Diaz play LF? What about draftees? Is Josh Fields ready to pitch in the Majors now? Can Dennis Raben step in and play 1B, RF or DH next year? Can he come up after a couple of months in Tacoma? This should bear on trades as well.
Step 3: Fill holes with free agents if necessary. Getting a fourth or fifth starter in FA is normally a bad idea, but the market may be changing enough in this area for it to make sense. A lot of guys didn’t get snapped up last year like they used to. I don’t know what next year’s market for corner outfielders is, but it’s a better bet than SP usually.
For some reason I voted that the M’s would win the division next year. But with all the questions they have to answer and (for now) only Lee Pelekoudas to answer them…I’m being way too optimistic.
This begs a question.
Now that Jeff has changed the title, do we now have to care about peoples’ fantasy teams?
Let me put it this way,
it was a harmless, incredible indirect reference to a fantasy team.
I was still tempted to hide the comment.
Do not talk about fantasy teams. Even in jest. It’s not funny.
He was promised a pitching staff with a 1.10 WHIP when he was 10
and they gave him a 1.55 WHIP instead.
Apparently I can't even make a joke...
Back to lurking for me.
Sorry dude
I thought it was harmless. I don’t quite understand the rage about it all. I understand that Jeff et al really don’t want this to become a fantasy chat room… but there’s plenty of room here for idle chatter about craigs list losers, beer, rosterbation, etc. Not sure why fantasy provokes such heat from on high. :(
I think Jeff doesn't like hearing about fantasy teams
Maybe its just a pet peeve of his (and Matthew)? But yea, the big three are basically religion, politics, and fantasy teams.
Jl/Robert '08: Promise for a CoachCage tomorrow!
I don't loathe fantasy discussion the way I do political/religious discussion
it isn’t actively upsetting. It’s just really really really not ever interesting.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 27, 2008 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions
So my signature shouldn't be my full roster by position so every time I post everyone can 'ohh' & 'ahh' it?
I fucking hate you Mariners
Should Graham not recover I will substitute as the third person who agrees with everything.
Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.
by JI on Jun 27, 2008 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
They will...
make the right offseason moves by rebuilding this team and finish in the middle of the pack.
With 45 votes in
Pessimism is winning. But it’s tempered pessimism, not the suicidal kind.
Interestingly, wild optimism is beating cautious optimism 2-1.
Tempered pessimism ----> cynicism
I usually choose cynicism over pessimism, but even I don’t think this team’s anywhere near the right track, and that they can overtake the Rangers or A’s, who IMO have since moved past them in terms of competitive development.
Can't vote
too many unknowns at this juncture. I do agree with the seeming consensus that while this team can contend given the right GM/moves made, they probably wont because they’re the Mariners.
Hooray beer!
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