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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

Trade Ichiro; Keep Raul Ibanez

Welcome back, Geoff Baker....

First off, M's fans have to stop kidding themselves. This team is not going to contend in 2009. It is going to be broken up. Once you do that, Ichiro becomes replaceable. Do you really want to be on the hook for the bulk of $90 million to a mid-30s singles hitter who's no longer a sure thing to his .300 most months of every season?

Me neither.

I thought the best time to trade Ichiro was last year. The team took a chance, hoping it was going to contend moving forward. The chance didn't work out. I won't crucify them for their hope. But this is getting serious. As good as Ichiro is, it doesn't justify a non-contending team keeping him around strictly for marketing purposes.

Ichiro is not what Jason Giambi was to the Oakland A's seven years ago. He's not a guy who's going to carry his team on his back, rally the troops around him. He's a dedicated professional. But for me, not the kind of guy you spend your franchise money on. Not now. Maybe in 2001. Or in 2002. But today, in 2008, we've seen the best of what Ichiro has to offer. And it is not enough for this team.

You want a guy who can hit and bring some leadership intangibles to the table? For a reasonable price? The M's already have one in Raul Ibanez. He's not going to carry this team on his back either, but he can do some good -- on and off the field -- at a more manageable price than Ichiro can. As a DH next season. Or even a first baseman. Preferably as a DH.


There's that guy who though trading Adam Jones for a veteran relief pitcher for the 2007 stretch-run was a good idea again.

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This is partly why I've stopped reading Baker's blog

Also, his brainless commenters as well.

Jl/Robert '08: Promise for a CoachCage tomorrow!

by Fin on Jun 26, 2008 10:48 AM PDT reply actions  

Would be a great move by ownership...

If they wanted nobody to show up to watch the team that is.

by Christopher Michael on Jun 26, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions  

Fuck leadership.

This team was upposed to have veteran leaders and how has that worked?

Good God when will people learn that this intangible shit means nothing

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jun 26, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions  

"When will people learn that this intangible shit means nothing?"

When people who actually played the game confirm that opinion. Outside attempts to prove this point are worthless because our own statistics are admittedly flawed and imperfect and changing on a yearly basis. Until current and former players stop referencing the positive influence of chemistry, leadership, comraderie, pranksterism, accountability police, etc. most baseball people (and most baseball fans)will continue to believe in it.

Or… until everyone gets their personality replaced by an Intel chip.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Willie Bloomquist says that Chemistry is bullshit

It was in some article a bit back where he pretty much said that he doesn’t believe in it.

by joof on Jun 26, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

But Bloomquist's opinion

hardly outweighs yours or mine.

But probably endears him to Matthew… who I hear wants to put him in as our starting shortstop.

I guess it’s a step towards players having a better understanding of what works… like Bannister looking at his Sabermetric numbers, or Jay Bruce explaining his first week dominance as “small sample size.”

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

It doesn't mean nothing

But that doesn’t mean it’s suddenly more important than the things we can actually measure. Would you rather build a team around a philosophy of intangibility, where you have no clue how much of an effect said intangibles actually have on the performance of your club beyond wild speculation (a la Baker) or build that same club based primarily on the things you can actually measure with data you can reliably extrapolate future performance from? Worrying about unknowns such as these should be far down the list of priorities for a ballclub, not the primary motivating factor for sweeping roster changes, trades, or inaction on necessary moves.

by OlSalty on Jun 26, 2008 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't say it "means nothing."

but smart baseball people shouldn’t base their decisions on something they have little to no control over. Talent does win out over things like “compatibility,” and does create it’s own “chemistry.”

by Omerta on Jun 26, 2008 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also, I never finished reading the Heyman article.

He is an idiot, but I loved the parts where he “believes” that Felix will “likely” be in Seattle next year. Fucking tool.

If we trade Felix in the next 3 years I will blow up the M’s offices just using my anger.

Go Nova

by dbroncos31 on Jun 26, 2008 10:56 AM PDT reply actions  

I don't even think I would be angry if the M's traded Felix

as much as I would be simply stunned that anyone could be so mind-numbingly stupid. It would be like winning the lottery, having everyone know you were holding the winning lottery ticket, and then offering it up for sale and selling it for like $50,000.

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

Felix should be had for the right offer

Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche and Matt Kemp for instance.

Captain Raptor and the Space Pirates is one of the greatest literary achievements of the Modern Era.

by Frosty Raptor on Jun 26, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Which would be akin to selling your $5M winning lottery ticket for $8.5M

Do you really trust the M’s to be able to pull that off? I think we’d probably get Brent Lillibridge, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Soriano and cash considerations

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ned Coletti is dumb

and hates youngsters, but he’s not that dumb.

You should’ve had him throw in Kuo while you were at it.

Also LaRoche is really skeezy looking.

The poster formerly known as Matt.

by bluemax on Jun 26, 2008 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Geoff is great at being a reporter.

Geoff is not great at being an armchair GM.

by Jed MC on Jun 26, 2008 11:09 AM PDT reply actions  

If we compiled his suggested roster moves

It would the biggest trainwreck in history. Adam Jones for Dontrelle Willis! Jeff Clement for Octavio Dotel! Wladimir Balentien for Al Reyes! Take on Matt Morris’ contnract!

Nice guy, good beat writer, no idea how to build a winning team.

by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I, for one, always had an anti-Ztio platform.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Rec'd for creative spelling.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jun 26, 2008 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can't find the error.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

ah shit

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

He was

Read this. Or let me quote the important parts for you.

Zito may not represent the best guarantee of success, but he’s the best the Mariners will get with what’s left over for them free-agent-wise this winter. Not my fault they picked this exact moment – with salaries soaring – to paint themselves into such a tight pitching corner. But they’ve done it and now they get to fix their own mess. If they get outbid for Zito – and I have no doubt they will – it will be over their reluctance to go so many years on a contract. But if the Texas Rangers sign Zito and finally get the makings of a quality starting rotation after all these years, what are Seattle’s chances of actually escaping the division basement? Good luck to them.

by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

Zito had a track record of being mediocre at the time he hit the market

I still don’t under stand why everyone was so interested in him.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can't remember,

did Oakland even make an effort to resign Zito?

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

No.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

It was expected

given Oakland’s salary limitations. What was a bigger alarm was that Oakland couldn’t trade him before losing him to FA.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but a ~4.00 ERA over a three year period.

And walks! Walks are bad! (for both hitters and pitchers)

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Geoff Baker is not new to this team

He’s been there almost everyday for a year and a half. He should know better than to think ichiro is tradeable.

by Gomez on Jun 26, 2008 11:21 AM PDT reply actions  

That's the absolutely mind-boggling part.

What in the world makes him think that Ichiro will ever be on the trading block?

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

To be fair to Geoff, he's gotta write SOMETHING

and unlike us, he can’t spend his time talking about how Yuni is the worst defensive SS in the league or BEER BEER BEER so…

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I get that he has to write something, and this is at least a discussion provoking topic

but look at the headline: “Ichiro going? Quite possible.”

No, it’s not quite possible. It’s completely unfathomable. Ichiro, regardless of what the FO tells you, is untouchable. He’s not going anywhere. Geoff’s been with the team long enough to know that.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's Right

Really, you can lump Baker’s comments with that article from Heyman at SI a few days ago.

I disagree with their reasoning on why the M’s should trade Ichiro. As the face of a franchise that absolute sucks, Ichiro is being scapegoated for all that ails the M’s. Ichiro is the least of the M’s worries right now.

However, I do have to agree with both that putting Ichiro on the trade block now is a really good idea. Why:

1) Baker is correct that this club is on the precipice of a major rebuild. The team has major problems all over their roster that can’t be fixed by adding a new DH and 1B. As a club, they don’t get on base, don’t hit for power, don’t play good defense sucks, and the starting pitching is bad beyond Felix and Bedard. The only part of the roster that isn’t terrible in the bullpen. And there isn’t much help waiting in the wings at Tacoma. This club is not a few pieces away from contending.

2) Ichiro has a lot of trade value. He is a good player and a huge box office draw. Moving Ichiro now would likely net the M’s a nice package of talent. If the M’s want to help their club improve, they need to bring in young talent. You are only going to get that by moving talent. If they trade Ichiro, Bedard, and Putz, they could totally change the long-term fortunes of this organization.

3) The ‘filling seats’ argument is weak. If this team keeps losing, it won’t matter if Ichiro is on the club. They need to build a consistent winning club. I think everyone on this blog in agreement in hoping for someone like Jed Hoyer, Chris Antonetti, or David Forst as the next GM. All three are the types of GMs who would consider moving Ichiro, as they should. Fan sentiment and selling tickets are important, but they shouldn’t be the determining factors in roster decision making. Focus on building a healthy club first, then let the marketing division of the organization focus on Clement, Morrow, and Felix as the faces of the franchise.

4) The other weak argument against blowing up the club is that it would doom us to a long-term run of losing. But I don’t think that is the case at all. The Rangers restocked their farm system by trading Mark Teixeira AND improved dramatically this year. The Marlin’s have done the same thing. The A’s have the balls to deal good players for prospects, and they are contending this year. I think that the M’s could win MORE games in 2009 if they make a few smart deadline deals. But you have to sack to deal fan favorites.

Right now, the M’s roster is a complete train wreck. It is pretty clear that Washurn, Batista, and Silva are available. But those guys are not good players. The best you can hope for is getting their contracts from the books. They need to take advantage of their situation as sellers and set this club up for long-term success. To do that, they should be shopping around Bedard, Ichiro, and Putz. Hopefully, all three will be healthy and playing at a high level over the next month and increase their trade value. The M’s don’t have to move any of them, and can always hold off until the offseason, or keep all three if they don’t get a legit offer. But, given their position, refusing to trade these guys would be really really stupid.

Bedard is on the block. They are going to be looking to deal Batista, Washburn, Silva, and Johjima. They have a lot of big contracts they need to move, and now is the time to do it. Since we are looking

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 11:26 AM PDT reply actions  

We should have started a pool

I would have had 28 minutes on the “when Jerry posts in a trade Ichiro thread”.

by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

To be clear

I am not saying that the M’s should dump him.

I just think it would be stupid, given that they are the worst club in baseball, to not shop him around.

He is one of their best trade assets, and will be 35 next year.

I also think they should move Bedard and Putz if it makes them better in 2009 and beyond.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

If only I could give you 100 recs for this...

I was thinking the exact same thing…

My layout.spellcheckDefault goes to 11

by PositivePaul on Jun 26, 2008 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

The league does not value Ichiro's skillset.

We will not get a package that will warrant a trade, period.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

How do you know if you don't shop him around

If that is the case, you don’t move him.

I don’t think that you are correct, but it you don’t listen to trade offers, how would you know?

It just think people are waaaaay too hellbent on keeping Ichiro at all costs.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like having a $117 million payroll.

Ichiro does a lot of things to ensure we have that kind of payroll at our disposal.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Weak argument

Keeping Ichiro and maintaining a high payroll are not directly correlated. I know that Ichiro helps the M’s sell tickets. But with Ichiro, the attendance has gone down consistently over the past few years. The best way to reverse that is by winning. If dealing Ichiro helps you attain that goal, then you have to consider it. There will always be another ‘franchise icon’. Griffey, Buhner, Randy, Ichiro,..... The M’s should build the best team they can, then let the marketing people sell them to the public. Jeff Clement is a great candidate for the next ‘face of the franchise.’

If you want to make a legitimate argument for keeping Ichiro, you should focus on his performance. He is a great leadoff hitter, baserunner, and defensive player. But I still think is ‘icon’ status will cause teams to overvalue him, just like many people do in Seattle.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

You want that payroll, you have to keep ownership happy.

Ichiro remaining on the ballclub is one of the few requirements needed to make ownership happy.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

???

How could you possibly know that?

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I will have to take your word for it

I don’t know how you could claim to have inside information about the opinions of the owner, considering that he almost never talks to the press, he never goes to games, and he has never explicitly stated that keeping Ichiro is his only source of happiness.

And, really, if Ichiro’s Japanese-ness is the main reason for keeping him, isn’t that a problem?

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not really, since he plays in one of the few US cities with a large fraction of the Asian-American population being Japanese

and that draws fans. Ichiro makes money for this team. Period. Think of all the fans in Japan who started watching M’s baseball for Ichiro. Think of the many many many Japanese-American families in Seattle (mine included) who love seeing a Japanese star play for their hometown team.

Ichiro being Japanese helps make money for the team. Ichiro also helps the team by getting a lot of hits and being a good defensive player. I kinda like having him around.

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't mean to try to rub this in any faces in any way,

but I was just wondering if the potential Sonic’s move will be a good thing for the Mariners, because they might pick up some Sonics’ fans and have increased attendance. Also, I know my opinion means shit here, but there is no sense in keeping Ichiro. A 35 year old on the decline with trade value (who is pretty expensive) does not belong a team that needs to rebuild. Maybe the Padres would put up a decent bounty for Ichiro as they could definitely use some outfield help, and since Ichiro isn’t a power hitter, his numbers shouldn’t go down much in PETCO because the park seems almost suited for him.

I hope I go all my grammar and shifting correct.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Completely inconsequential.

There’s only a 1-month overlap in seasons, and good God that’s a rambling post.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Aaah, ok.

Yes, sorry about that, my mind seems to not be able to work in straight lines, but rather in a circumlocutionary manner.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll try to make my way through your points.

Ichiro is an extremely valuable player to this club, both financially and from a baseball perspective. His skillset is one that is vastly underrated in baseball, and add in the fact that he’s more valuable to us than any other team in the league, there’s no way we get a good enough package to make a trade worth it.

This team could very well be in contention next season. Some of the biggest problems have come from 1B/DH/RF, all of which have performed well under league-average (and I’d argue under replacement level). Get those positions fixed, and this club is markedly improved.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ichiro's not underrated!

Look at the all-star voting and explain to me how Ichiro is undervalued.

He is one of the most popular players in MLB.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed, but I find it funny how deja vu it all is

Considering how after 2006(?) we talked about our black holes at: DH, CF, SP that were under replacement level and how just fixing those with average players would net us a ton of good.

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

The front office listens to you!

Next time, make sure you spell out to them that they can’t completely give up on the other positions, though.

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you don't listen to offers, then you never know what you might get.

If there are no suitable offers, then don’t trade him. During the offseason for the Angels, Ervin Santana was on the block, easily available, but the Angels management didn’t find any suitable offers, so they kept him. Ichiro has no precedent (like a player who is similar to him) , and he might be valuable for 10 more years to come.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

So... if you won't trade him

why waste everyone’s time listening to offers?

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Im trying to say

that the M’s FO should listen to offers. And if any GM is willing to pay full price, then make the deal.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Point taken.

It seems as if I might have underestimated Ichiro’s non-baseball worth.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

Your point made perfect sense. The responses were… um… less than sensible.

“Let’s not listen to offers because there won’t be any good ones” is exactly how to be a bad GM.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you're missing the point entirely.

No one’s saying “let’s not listen to offers.” It’s more “the odds that an offer that will be worth listening to is made are so small that it’s really not even worth debating.”

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

No

I think you missed the point entirely. The original point was Baker saying, “Hey… Maybe we should start getting used to the idea that Ichiro could go.” He’s not writing this speculation for you guys; he’s writing it to the main stream fanbase… who probably think Ichiro in a Mariner’s jersey is sacrosanct. It’s not sacrosanct. And he might (unlike most of our roster) have actual trade value.

And people were writing, “he won’t be traded,” “why waste time listening to offers”, “ownership would NEVER let that happen” etc. I agree that speculating on who wants him and what they’ll give is rosterbation… but it isn’t pointless for Baker to break the idea to Joe Fan that the team might be better off dealing Ichiro.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here's my argument:

(1) the team may be better off dealing Ichiro, depending on the return
(2) there is absolutely no sign anywhere that the team would even consider letting him go
(3) therefore any discussion of trade value is moot
(4) why discuss moot?

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 26, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

The more it's discussed

particularly on the mainstream blogs like Baker’s… the more likelihood that the idea is considered.

If you want to maximize your chances of benefitting from a trade, you want every other team to be thinking about the possibility and making offers.

That is the benefit of discussing moot.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

But if it's moot, then by definition there will be no trade

and I don’t think the same ownership that just went over Bavasi’s head to extend an old Japanese catcher is going to give so much as a second thought to dealing its icon.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 26, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just because it might not happen, doesn't mean it shouldn't be discussed.

It is much better to discuss, and if nothing happens, no big deal. But if something does happen, then we immediately know whether to go crazy and advocate firing someone, or realizing that maybe its not the end of the world when a franchise player leaves.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Might not

” and “will not ever, unless something drastic happens” are different.

Something huge and totally unforeseen would have to occur for Ichiro being traded to become even remotely possible.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

"something unforeseen"

like the Mariners totally sucking this year?

Maybe you foresaw that, but the M’s brass sure didn’t.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, like Yamauchi selling the team.

Or Ichiro getting pissed during their year-end meeting and putting him in a sleep hold. Like, way way way out of left field unforeseen.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

So what if the M's suck?

There is no way this ownership group will ever allow Ichiro to be dealt, period. Ichiro is huge in Japan, he is the most prolific baseball icon in that country without question, and Nintendo is a Japanese company. They are not going to stiff his millions of fans over there (and the revenue they provide to this team) by trading him no matter how crappy we play. It’s stupid to even discuss this because it’s not going to happen. It doesn’t matter if it would be in the best interests of the team from a baseball standpoint, or whether other GM’s would underestimate his trade value, or whatever, because if ownership has no interest in dealing him (and they do not at all, no matter how shitty this team is) it’s not going to happen. They’re the ones who get to make this call.

I’m certain that because of the meltdown, pretty much everyone else on the team is on the trading block, but Ichiro is the exception to the rule.

by OlSalty on Jun 26, 2008 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

I second that agreed.

I see now that he is too valuable for the off-field operations to be traded.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now I really hope they trade him

just to disprove everyone who claims absolute certainty that they won’t. ;)

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

While he's certainly not going to get any better

it’s still early to call Ichiro on a decline phase. He’s been unlucky this year and his core numbers don’t suggest any change from 2007.

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 12:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, certainly on the decline from his peak years.

Also, his OPS+ has a pattern of a great year followed by two years of decline, followed again by a good year. This year is year one of the decline phase. I know it doesn’t mean much, but if Ichiro loses his speed (leg or bat), than he is a lot less useful.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Consider his skillset

speedy singles hitters are prone to more random fluctuation

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Mariners don't need to rebuild in the traditional sense.

The value the Mariners get in return for him won’t match his value to the Mariners. Ichiro has a no-trade clause, which would further limit his value (most likely.)

Most importantly, trading Ichiro isn’t happening. So why even debate it?

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Again, how do you know this

You are making a whole lot of sketchy assumptions.

How do you know what his value is?

How do you know what teams he can and can’t be moved to?

And, since we are speculating here, why do you think he wouldn’t welcome a trade to a contending team? Couldn’t you make just as good an argument that he would want to avoid playing with the worst team in baseball?

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I said "maybe" the Padres because that was the only

team that I could think of at the moment that needs a OF badly. And the Padres aren’t necessarily that bad. They are only 8 games back, and were contending until past the last day last year. By no means am I saying that he will be traded to the Padres, but rather just suggesting maybe the Padres would be interested. Also, contrary to what i said, the M’s don’t need to trade Ichiro, but if they don’t entertain offers, then they never know what they might get.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Shit, wrong reply button.

And from a brief google, a rich businessman.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Ichiro were available (which he isn't)

I can’t think of a team that wouldn’t have interest based on purely baseball reasons.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe we can trade him to the Rays for Griffey

after the Rays trade for Griffey. I heard they might.

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Possibilities

The Cubs and Cardinals both have needs that he would fit nicely.

That is just off the top of my head.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Cubs have Reed Johnson and Edmonds in center.

As well as Felix Pie. None of them are particularly above average, but unless the parted with Pie, I doubt the Cubs would trade for Ichiro.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

I dunno

I think the Cubs iare a pretty good possibility. Reed Johnson and a 38 year old Jim Edmonds with durability issues are unlikely to be seen as being blocks to Ichiro. They have the payroll to absorb Ichiro’s salary.

Granted, IMO, Sabathia make more sense for them than Ichiro.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jun 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

True, but management is really high on Pie.

With Soriano in left, and Fukudome in right, Pie would have no where to go if Ichiro was brought in. And it doesn’t make sense to have 6 outfielders (unless, of course, you are the Angels for some reason). The Mariners would want a CF prospect (presumably?) that is either big league ready or close to it. I don’t know the Cubs system that well, but the only young, good (upside) players are Pie and Marmol, and I highly doubt the Cubs would part with them when their CF platoon is getting it done (for about 8 million less)

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I doubt the Padres would do this

They have a reputation as a fairly parsimonious team. The highest payroll they’ve had since 2000, is this season, $73.6M. They are essentially the A’s, payroll wise, just without the A’s well known rep for having a small payroll.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jun 26, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't really think my assumptions are sketchy at all, really.

I think we have a pretty good idea what his value is based on what veteran players have fetched on the market over the last few years. Teams are reluctant to give up cheap young talent, especially for a guy who has a skillset that isn’t really understood very well by people who aren’t familiar with him.

And the other thing is, he’s not getting traded, so none of this stuff matters. Seriously.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Plus, to be quite honest, basketball and baseball are different sports.

And if you’re a Seattle sports fan, then you already like them both anyway. You’re right in that maybe a few fans will say “oh, this year instead of spending $250 on Sonics tickets, I’ll go to some M’s games instead,” but those won’t make any kind of noticeable difference in the bottom line.

by seattlebruin on Jun 26, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ok, just wondering.

Maybe the city will back the M’s a lot more perhaps? It seems like the Sonics are the pride and joy…

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uhh...

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

My bad, completely forgot about the Seahawks for a second.

Ill just go to the corner for a bit to get my mind straight.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really, the Mariners have the best attendance in down times than anyone else,

A lot of that’s Safeco, but a lot of it is marketing, too.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

You make a solid point.

I go to a lot of the games I go to because it’s a nice day and I have nothing else going on.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's because long-time Mariner fans

are still riding out the crest of love the city felt back in 1995-2002. Before that, the M’s were in serious trouble and likely to leave the city. As an older fan, I would say the Seahawks and the Huskies football program are the most historically supported local teams.

by johnbai on Jun 26, 2008 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the M's made a lot of fans-for-life during those years, though.

Historically, you’re right, but I think the M’s have to be in the conversation now.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please, GMJ is like that now.

Id probably pay a team to take him off our hands. Torii I think will come into a more parallel situation with Ichiro, except without the team feeling too much loyalty to him, or the fans going crazy every time a trade rumor comes up with his name.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Very much so.

Although Torii is much less of an unknown.

I AM THOR, GOD OF THUNDER. BOW TO MY WILL AND MY HAMMER!

by anaheim angels on Jun 26, 2008 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ole!!

It’s a summer miracle! Jerry’s back!

Break out the champaign!!!!

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

He could've been talking about Champaign, Illinois.

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jun 26, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, I spelled it incorrectly.

My brain was focused on geography earlier today so it slipped to the Illinois city instead of the French. Why are you capitalizing every word?

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

God, I wish.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Creepy.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jpegs are the Devil's format.

I’d prefer you didn’t mention them in my presence.

by Liebkartoffel on Jun 26, 2008 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have finally managed to mix furries and baseball.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

IIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

STAB STAB STAB STAB STAB STAB STAB DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE DIE KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL KILL

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm guessing you dislike mascots.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

rec'd

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

In my defense.....

I didn’t just sign up today to talk about trading Ichiro. I just sorta worked out that way.

I have been out of the country for a year and a half, and just got back home and got regular internet access again. I have been following the various blogs at internet cafes, but haven’t been posting much due to the cost.

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

TLDNR

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

If Bakers wants to make the argument, I'm okay with that.

I think he’s wrong, but I think he’s wrong a lot of the time, especially on matters of roster construction. The problem is, “I think there’s a strong case to be made for trading Ichiro” isn’t the same as “Ichiro going? Quite possible.” Everything we know about how he’s valued by the team and the ownership suggests otherwise. If there’s something he knows that we don’t (and there’s totally not) he needs to at least allude to it rather than make such a false claim.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:06 PM PDT reply actions  

Exactly.

Geoff has been with this club long enough to know better.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't Ichiro a historically unique player?

Is there any meaningful way to predict how his skill-set will age?

by John Morgan on Jun 26, 2008 12:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Generally, speedy singles hitters age well.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

I doubt he actually says hi.

Probably says “hey”, or perhaps “hello, nice to meet you. My name is Kenny Lofton.”

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

Kazizza!

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

exactly

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

He'll be good until the end of his contract?

Ichiro confuses me, and I just assum he’ll go on being awesome for as long as he so chooses.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Guesses as to how Ichiro's aging will manifest itself:

-will gradually lose bat control
-will gradually lose infield hits
-will continue to put the ball on the ground but at a reduced rate
-won’t get fat
-may become more selective
-may use power swing more often

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 26, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

And speaking to the first point: Ichiro’s contact rate is up this year, at an alltime high I believe and he’s keeping more of those balls fair (that may not be good for his line but I think it speaks to good bat control).

He is being more selective this year though.

by Matthew on Jun 26, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ichiro is also absurdy smart and seems aware of what he is and isn't capable of doing.

I’ve always assumed he would make necessary adjustments faster than most other players.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

So is it actually true that speedy singles hitters historically age pretty well?

I remember reading the opposite somewhere, but if you guys its true, it makes a difference on my stance toward a certain issue.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Granted, but the challenge I'm wondering about is whether the Angels should try to sign Chone Figgins to a long-term deal

this offseason, given that he appears to have figured out how to hit .300 with a .400-ish OPS consistently, as well as maturing into a great 3B defender. He’s currently 30 and the question I wonder about is whether trying for a 5-year deal makes sense.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Uh, you sure he has a .400-ish OPS?

That would be some serious cause for alarm.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Heh.

Meant OBP, sorry.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good call.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Snarkiness is an accepted risk of posting on this blog.

Especially when one makes stupid typos. It’s all good. ;-)

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, it certainly fits that Figgins is being more selective

and his speed hasn’t fallen off too much. If he goes the Lofton career path he’d definitely be worth it to 35.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Does IF defense hold up as well as OF defense?

IIRC, it does not, but I’m not sure about that.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Depends.

SS and 2B would tend to decline a lot faster than 1B/3B I should think.

~Till the Halo burns out...

by Zu Long on Jun 26, 2008 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

2b tend to have short shelf lives

but the smaller guys can usually stay at SS for a good while.

Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Conventional wisdom among

somewhat “moneyball” influenced fans, and also “general” fans, seems to be that Ichiro / Kenny Lofton / Jose Reyes etc types do not age well.

HOWEVER, there is a reason why slow 1b / DH types with low BA, good OBP, good slugging, no defensive value, lots of Ks, have their skills referred to as “old player skills”, ie, those are the kind of skills that old player’s, approaching decline, have.

As far back as 1987, Bill James did a study in the 1987 Baseball Abstract where he, matched young players who had similar value, with win shares being used to measure value, at similar ages, and then looked at the rest of their careers. Fast players / “young player skills” (SBs, runs scored) played a 43% more MLB games than the slow players / “old player skills” (walks, HRs).

Old: lowish BA, good OBP, good SLG, low SBs
Young: the inverse

Totals for each, ages, Win Shares:
21-23 615(Old)-614(Young)
24-26 1379-1482
28-30 1359-1518
31-33 1207-1340
34-36 674-916
37-39 214-346
40-42 20-117

One reason why fast, athletic players, like Ichiro, Lofon, Reyes, types, appear to age better might be, because there are only so many DH positions around. Everyone else has to play D.

Secondly, even DHs must run the bases. If you can’t run the bases without tweaking a hamstring, an achilles, a groin, and going on the DL, your skills have NOT aged well. An ageing Ichiro might be in decline. And ageing Mo Vaughn is on the DL.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jun 26, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just going by my personal experience

which is probably wrong. I tend to only hang out on SABR / “moneyball” influenced sites: BBTF, A’s Nation, LL, Mets Geek. I see the fast players don’t age well argument, from stats based posters, quite a bit, except on BBTF and here.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jun 26, 2008 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's totally wrong

Speed/Athletic Ability is pretty much the best indicator for how well a player will age.

by davidcameron on Jun 26, 2008 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

My point

is that many so called stats fans still have it wrong. Most of that post of mine, I simply lifted from a post I made on A’s Nation a couple months back, when I was debating with a couple of stat influenced fans who claimed that Ichiro’s skills don’t age well.

ZIPS: Milledge: 466 HR, 485 2B, 2282 hits, 278-379-524

by rfloh on Jun 26, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wow, that's pretty bad.

I thought this debate was totally over.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's somewhat surprising.

I though that the “old player skills”/”young player skills” thing had been decided and agreed upon quite a while ago.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Getting fat worked for Tony Gwynn.

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fat Tony Gwynn had more power.

Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK, here's a question......

There has been lots of talk about how the M’s would never trade Ichiro because of the Japanese ownership and his relationship with Yamauchi. Really, this conversation hasn’t focused much on SHOULD the M’s trade Ichiro, but IF it is even remotely possible they would even consider it.

My question is: isn’t that racism?

In any other industry, being Japanese would not be enough for someone to get a job. It is pretty clear that the club values Japanese players, especially reflected in the idiotic extension of Johjima’s contract. If a team were to favor white players, or even American players, over other ethnic groups, I would imagine there would be a public backlash.

Actually, extreme nationalism (you could argue racism) are really common in Japanese baseball. I remember hearing about how Sadahuro Oh had pitchers on a team he was managing not throw hittable pitches to three foreign players who were threatening his home run record, mainly on the grounds that the record should be Japanese. I also read that a lot of teams passed up Yu Darvish in the draft because he is of partial Iranian descent (although he spent his life in Japan).

I guess that there is a fine line between wanting to keep a Japanese icon for business reasons (Ichiro makes them money and keeps the team popular with Japanese fans) and outright racism (a Japanese owner interfering with roster decisions to keep Japanese players with the club).

What do you guys think about this?

by Jerry on Jun 26, 2008 5:53 PM PDT reply actions  

No, I don't think it qualifies.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 26, 2008 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Remember when we cut Mac Suzuki?

Ichiro doesn’t have his job simply because he’s Japanese.

Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Straw Man

Nice straw man argument.

I never said that he only had a job because he is Japanese. He is a really good player. I have never argued otherwise. Take a look at my posts in this thread.

The fact that he is a great player is precisely the reason why it would be wise to shop him around. He has a lot of trade value, despite his big contract.

What I am saying is that his being Japanese is the only reason why so many people see trading him as a completely preposterous idea. BrianL and several other people argued that point over and over.

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

You're missing the point.

It’s not because he’s Japanese, it’s because he’s a highly marketable, extraordinarily popular player in that market.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

What about Johjima

If that is true, explain the Johjima extension.

He isn’t anywhere close to Ichiro in terms of marketability. Resigning him blocked our best prospect, a #3 overall pick who the team spent millions to sign.

You are contradicting yourself. You (and others) have argued over and over that the Japanese ownership group won’t deal Ichiro because he is a Japanese icon, and that they value him way beyond his pure ability. Now, you are arguing that its just because of finances.

The M’s make far less than you might think from the Japanese market. So your argument doesn’t really work.

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't see the contradiction.

Both of those arguments are one and the same. He’s a Japanese Icon, so it improves the finances of the team to keep him, irregardless of whether he’s actually Japanese. If we happened to get Bobby V (fingers crossed), he’ll be in a lot of the same boat. It’s not racist, it’s keeping specific marketable groups that give you money happy (in this case, the Japanese public).

Also, I would say that there is probably a good chance that the Johjima extension is based on a lot of the same ideas. That guy has his own museum in Japan. You don’t think he’s popular enough to make it profitable for the parent company to force through an extension?

by Faux on Jun 27, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh Jesus fucking Christ.

No it isn’t racism. Ichiro is a cash cow for the team. He was probably the most popular baseball player in Japan since Sadaharu Oh. If you think he has a job only because he’s Japanese you are so unbelievably wrong.

Don’t pull the racism card on a whim.

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Chill the fuck out

You need to relax, man.

Go back and read your own posts. You continually make the argument that Ichiro is untradable because the M’s have a Japanese owner. How is that not favoring a player because he is Japanese?

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not really

First, the whole idea that the M’s make a ton of money off Japanese fans is a misnomer. All MLB international revenue is divided evenly between the 30 teams. So, really, the Marlins and Pirates make as much off sales of Ichiro jerseys, posters, and bobbleheads as the M’s do.

The M’s only keep revenue from tickets and sales at Safeco.

When you go see games, how many Japanese tourists to you usually see in the stands? Do you honestly think that those extra tickets are that much of a contribution to the M’s revenue stream? The M’s make far less off the Japanese market than you seem to think.

If the M’s are making decisions based entirely on revenue, they should bring back Griffey next year. That would make them just as much money (if not more) than keeping Ichiro on the team.

However, I am hoping that the M’s value winning over revenues. Isn’t that what we have been complaining about for the past several years?

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you have this financial data, please let us know.

From everything I’ve read, the Mariners are benefiting from a very lucrative television contract in Japan. It’s not just what you see at Safeco.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think so

I couldn’t find a link in a quick search, but this whole issue was discussed at length leading up to Ichiro’s extension.

From what I understand, individual baseball teams make money from deals with local television contracts, radio, ticket sales, and sales at the ballpark. Sales of merchandise outside of stadiums go through MLB, and are divided up among the teams. Thus, if you buy an M’s cap at the mall, the M’s don’t actually get a ton of that money.

MLB.com and international broadcasts work the same way. They are contracted through MLB and the funds are divided among the teams equally.

Thus, the M’s only make as much money off international revenue as other clubs do, with the only exception being Japanese fans who actually come to the ballpark.

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not quite.

A excerpt from a story you may want to read. This was from early 2005, BTW, so the numbers have probably gone up since the extension.
—-—-—-—-—
But even though they split the overseas revenue, the Mariners still benefit from the fact that millions of Japanese are watching their games, as evidenced by the half-dozen Japanese firms that bought signage at Safeco Field last year with an eye toward the Japanese audience.
...
And Ichiro continues to draw Japanese tourists to Seattle; 81,000 visited last year.
-—-—-—-——

It’s not just tickets (and shirts and merch to go along), and it’s more people than you’d think. Granted not all of them are Ichiro fans, I’m sure, but enough should be for it to be profitable. Keep in mind signage at a stadium is BIG money, not to mention Japanese companies and US companies that work a lot with Japanese companies will be much more likely to have corporate seats and boxes than if we didn’t have players that drew Japanese fans.

Our FO may be “baseball stupid”, but they aren’t “money stupid”. If they think it’s in their best financial interests, they’ll trot Ichiro out until he’s 65. If he wasn’t a draw, he wouldn’t have gotten that extension.

by Faux on Jun 27, 2008 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't get why everyone wants to trade him.

Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.

by JI on Jun 26, 2008 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

There are better ways to shake things up.

You know, like cutting the FUCKING DEAD WEIGHT ON THIS TEAM

by BrianL on Jun 26, 2008 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not a solution

Nobody is arguing that the club shouldn’t cut dead weight.

The problem is, cutting Sexson and Vidro won’t really help that much. Moving Ibanez to DH would improve the defense, but you still have to bring in good players to fill resulting OF and 1B vacancies. The team lacks talent. The M’s can improve a bit through addition by subtraction, but that is not nearly enough to make them legitimate contenders.

The big issue here is that the M’s don’t have much ML ready talent. Beyond Clement and Balentien, who is going to help improve an absolutely terrible offense?

This is why people are talking about moving Ichiro, Putz, and Bedard. Those guys actually have trade value. From a performance standpoint, they are more value to contending clubs than they are to the M’s. The M’s need to bring in talent, period.

I think it is really strange that, on a statistically-oriented blog, people are forming opinions on this matter based mainly on emotions.

All these GM candidates that everyone is hoping for – such as Chris Antonetti or David Forst – would definitely shop Ichiro. That is because it is the right thing to do. Consider the WWBBD angle (what would Billy Beane do?).

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Getting rid of Ichiro is change for the sake of change.

If you want to do that, just cut the goddamn dead weight.

And do you really think Forst or Antonetti would have permission to shop Ichiro?

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would hope so

Why bring in a GM candidate if you won’t let them do what is necessary to win? Why bring in a GM if you plan to undermine their roster construction philosophy?

If that is the case, they should just let Pelekoudas run the team indefinitely.

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

The idea that trading Ichiro is necessary to do for the M's to win is wrong.

The M’s, despite their record, aren’t in need of a total tear down. If they were, and they chose to go with a three year plan (or something of that nature) then your argument would hold more water. Ichiro is one of the best players on the team. He is one of two regulars that provides above average defense, and fixing the defense is going to be a huge part of fixing the team quickly. He’s one of two players on the team that is likely to post an OBP over .350. His skillset is hard to find on the open market.

There’s a solid case to be made against trading Ichiro based on those factors alone; I think it would be a bad decision to trade such a player unless it returned at least two highly rated prospects and one more that projected to be a contributor. Add to that Ichiro’s importance to the franchise in other ways, and it becomes obvious that the value you would get for him in trade isn’t going to come close to his actual value with the team.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Grounded in reality???

How is Churchill’s argument any different than the one I posted yesterday?

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 7:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, for one he didn't start screaming racism from the rooftops.

Second, I wasn’t comparing his article to your argument, I was comparing it to Baker’s.

You know, the one linked at the top.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

And then takes a shot across the bow.

USSMariner, and apparently some at LOL, too, are Ichiro apologists. He does no wrong in their eyes and all of his deficiences are someone else’s fault, or aren’t even there to begin with, in their eyes.

Bottom line is, he’s 34, declining at least somewhat, and is making a lot of money on a team in dire need of a full rebuild.

Ichiro will be at least 35, probably 36, when the rest of the roster is ready to contend for the postseason.

If that player were anyone but Ichiro, they’d all be following the USSM/LOL consensus that he should be traded. But the player is named Ichiro, so…

The potential trade return for Ichiro far outweighs what he can bring to a team on the field in Seattle in the next 1-2 years.

And if he’s not going to play center, his value diminished even further.

Criticizing someone who thinks the club should explore trading Ichiro is ignorant.

I really don’t agree with Churchill’s idea of what we can get on a return from Ichiro, and I especially disagree with Churchill’s assertion earlier that this team can’t possibly be competitive next season. We’ve got the internal components to fix the starting rotation, don’t we? The bullpen won’t be terribly hurt if we convert Morrow into a starter, especially if Josh Fields is as close to ML ready as advertised.

I want to keep Ichiro because I think this team can be competitive next season. If we can be competitive next season, it makes no sense to deal one of your best players.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Finally!

I think that you are the first person to argue for keeping Ichiro based on his performance.

I happen to disagree, but at least this is an interesting conversation.

by Jerry on Jun 27, 2008 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Most of us here have been arguing for ages that we can compete next season.

The financial argument was brought up in response to Baker’s blog post as to illustrate why Ichiro will never ever ever ever ever ever be traded (and frankly, Baker should know better than to make a post titled “Ichiro going? Quite possible”).

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 8:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

And you have to realize

If we get the right package, no one here is opposed to trading Ichiro (except maybe me, only because I’ve got an outstanding offer to bear Ichiro’s manbabies). Let’s be honest, though. There’s no way Lee Pelekoudas has the authorization to make any kind of moves like this, not serving as the interim GM.

The big problem most of us had with Baker’s blog entry was that it was in no way feasible, yet he passed the idea off as being “quite possible.” Yamauchi isn’t going to sign off on the move and Pelekoudas doesn’t have the ability to make such a large personnel decision. For someone who has been covering the team for as long as he has, Baker really should know better.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

And as to competing next season, here's my rationale

We’re being weighed down by below replacement-level 1B/DH/RF (Wilk/Wlad really hurt the RF numbers). These are the three easiest positions on a ballclub to fill, and should provide much more solid numbers than we have been getting. You dump Sexson/Vidro and replace them with any player who is at least league average and the offense is dramatically improved.

As for the rotation, there are only two spots that really need to be addressed. Silva is a servicable back-of-the-rotation starter, but the big problems have come from Batista/Washburn. Replace those two with some combination of RA Dickey, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Brandon Morrow and that glaring weakness is patched up.

You also have to keep in mind that the AL West is a weak division. Get the problems at 1B/DH/RF fixed (and it’s not that hard to fix these positions in the lineup) and this team is a legitimate AL-West contender.

by BrianL on Jun 27, 2008 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

And even if the roster can't be fixed internally,

there are always plenty of scrap heap guys floating around that can be solid contributors. Smart teams don’t blow things up simply because they’re losing, they do it because there’s no foundation in place. That’s not the case here.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

ding ding ding

Give you're propers to the all time rec leader.

by JI on Jun 27, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, most people have been making that argument.

This whole ‘should we trade Ichiro’ debate is nothing new, a fact of which I’m sure you’re aware; it’s been discussed time and again, pretty much every season since 2004. Most people opposed to trading Ichiro probably don’t really feel the need to rehash their arguments each time it comes back around. The non-performance issues are brought up because they help to illustrate how unlikely Ichiro’s being traded is.

This front office isn’t good at much, but they are good at making money. Much in the same way that I trust TIm Ruskell’s judgment whenever he makes a personnel decision, I trust that if Lincoln and Armstrong don’t want Ichiro traded because he’s good for business, I’m inclined to believe them. If there was no way Ichiro was going to be part of the next winning M’s team, more people would call bullshit on that line of thinking, but he very well could be.

As a young boy, I dreamed of being a baseball.

by Aaron Campeau on Jun 27, 2008 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

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