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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

26-49

I've spent a lot of time, both here and in real life, discussing with people whether or not this is really the worst team in baseball. I mean, yeah, the standings say it is, but in terms of raw talent, are we actually worse off than, say, the Nationals or the Royals? This has been a point of contention, because for as bad as the Mariners have looked, a lot of people have trouble wrapping their heads around the possibility that an alleged pre-season contender could turn into such a foul mess seemingly overnight. There's no way, right? There's just no way.

Well, regardless of what you think of the Mariners at full strength, this weekend we all caught a glimpse of what the worst team in baseball could look like. Even if you're one of those people who refuses to believe that we truly are as bad as our performance (and I'm still not sure where I stand), the fact of the matter is that, when you take an awful team and subtract Adrian Beltre, JJ Putz and Brandon Morrow, you're left with something outrageously suck. For the duration of the weekend, we were the worst team in baseball, and I'm not sure it was even all that close. Did you like it? Did you like what you saw? Jose Vidro batted cleanup again today. Miguel Cairo came to the plate ten times in three games. Miguel Batista tried to close. That's not just the worst team in baseball - that's one of the worst teams the league has ever seen. Thankfully we had injury excuses for some of the most egregious decisions, but after seeing the team Jim Riggleman threw out there this morning, I find it a lot easier to understand why we are where we are. We're terrible.

As of this writing, the Mariners lead the Strasburg Sweepstakes by three games over Washington, five games over San Diego, five and a half games over Colorado and San Francisco, and six and a half games over Kansas City. That's not a bad place to be as we approach the halfway point of the season. Granted, moves like dumping Richie and Vidro will unfortunately make us better, but you have to figure that the rest of the teams on that list will make similar moves as well, which should help preclude us from falling off the pace. The eventual returns of Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, and Austin Kearns will give us a boost, although those are still a ways away. We just have to do what we can to keep from getting hot. God bless you Carlos Silva.

Were the Mariners to schedule another press conference, I think the only thing they could do that I would meet with enthusiasm and trust is to announce that they've made it an organizational goal to gun for Stephen Strasburg. I didn't think I'd ever get to the point at which I wanted one of my favorite teams to make it a priority to lose, but here I am.

6_22_08_medium

Biggest Contribution: Raul Ibanez, +8.0%
Biggest Suckfest: Carlos Silva, -20.4%
Most Important AB: Vidro strikeout, -7.7%
Most Important Pitch: Teixeira homer #1, -10.6%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -22.4%
Total Contribution by Position Players: -27.6%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)

(Sorry about last night, by the way - here's the chart. Washburn made the biggest contribution, Batista was the biggest suckfest, the Braves gave us 18.1% WPA with errors, and our chances were dashed by Greg Norton.)

The Atlanta broadcasters were going on and on about "Suzuki" and his Japanese baseball bats all day long, but while I'm not going to throw the r-word around all willy-nilly, I wonder if they realize that white people are the weirdest and most dangerous people on the planet. Seriously, we think it's awesome to light stuff on fire and kick it at things. What's that all about? I'm terrified of us.

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Are you kidding this is an awesome situation

losses = good
occasional wins = good

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 22, 2008 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe i just have a demented view of the world

I’m terrified that Strasburg is going to get injured and make this draft another “no real top player” draft and somehow the M’s pick the wrong guy

by laxtonto on Jun 22, 2008 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

If we pick number 1, at least

there’s no chance the Mariners draft a college reliever. But then again, this is the Mariners, so one never knows.

by redwolf75 on Jun 22, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just because a player is picked in the draft does not at all mean that

player is obligated to sign with the team that chose him. They still have to negotiate a financial deal with the player which he can accept or refuse.

The internet destabilizes every hierarchy it contacts.

by 44FAN on Jun 23, 2008 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

The likelihood of someone rejecting 1st overall pick money is mad

and also in baseball you can’t trade draft picks like in football, basically Strasburg couldn’t pull a Eli Manning if he wanted too.

Jl/Robert '08: Promise for a CoachCage tomorrow!

by Fin on Jun 23, 2008 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty much all the top first rounders have big time agents.

If the clubs don’t want to or can’t meet the financial demands of the player they picked and his agent, by the August 15 deadline for negotiations, then the player “opts” out and re-enters the next draft and takes his chances then at getting a new signing offer from an other team. When the player does this he also takes the chance he won’t be the top pick depending on circumstances. There is also a chance he will get picked by a better team. The club that failed to sign a top first round draft pick still is allowed a top pick in the same order the following year as a sort of compensation for losing out on the previous draft pick they failed to sign. I have not been able to track down a list of how often this occurs and what top picks have done this but it is not uncommon.

The internet destabilizes every hierarchy it contacts.

by 44FAN on Jun 23, 2008 2:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not going to pretend like I'm an expert,

but I would LOVE to see a list of No. 1 overall draft picks who went back to college for their senior year.

Your draft stock will never be higher, you have millions on the table, and a freak injury could take it all away. You’re not going to do any better than No. 1 overall, and praying that a high-payroll team is bad enough to get a high draft pick next year and draft you is an absurd strategy.

The No. 1 pick is going to get a good deal of money, and (usually) rightfully so. But I just can’t see guys like Strasburg walking away from a $6 or $8 million signing bonus to roll the dice again.

It’s like Buster Posey demanding a $12 million signing bonus this year. Good luck, dude. There’s zero chance he’s going back to school. He’ll sign. It’ll just take some wrangling.

by Teej on Jun 23, 2008 2:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

From what I have read, this occurs more often with draft picks

out of high school faced with a bigger life decision of whether to go on to college and get a degree, or go pro and get the signing bonus money now. Just because you sign with a team does’nt mean you are going to make it to the major leagues. You could spend years in the minors and get released or suffer injuries that could prevent you from playing. If you go to college, you have the degree that could offer security for the future. The only one I know of that did this is Joe Saunders that was drafted but offered a lower than expected amount and he decided to go to college. Now he is an Angels starting pitcher. Strasburg is still in college so it might have less bearing on his decsion.

The internet destabilizes every hierarchy it contacts.

by 44FAN on Jun 23, 2008 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I suppose that's the point I'm trying to make.

There’s a huge difference between a high schooler getting drafted late in the first round and a college junior getting drafted at 1:1.

Also, the assumption in this story here is that Strasburg gets taken No. 1. So not only is he a college junior with very little reason to go back to school, but he’s the No. 1 pick in the draft. You can’t ever be better than that. That’s why I’m saying that unless Strasburg gets drafted by the Nats and they - for some absurd reason - offer him a signing bonus of $13.75 and a bag of barbecue CornNuts, he’s going to sign.

The way baseball is going nowadays - with teams recognizing the great value advantage of high draft picks over free agents - the No. 1 overall pick is going to be signed. Every year. No matter what.

by Teej on Jun 23, 2008 3:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Awesome.

I am happy that Raul will get to keep his own defensive blunders sidebar.

by BrianL on Jun 22, 2008 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh no you don't:


Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 22, 2008 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

FWIW

The Royals have played a lot better after their losing streak and are trending upwards both in pitching, hitting, and wins.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 22, 2008 9:26 PM PDT reply actions  

I know that strictly speaking it makes a lot of sense to keep losing.

Right now I can feel that way, but as soon as the game starts I want to win.

by thewyrm on Jun 22, 2008 9:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Particularly when they score on gif-able offense.

Yes, I'm a girl. Yes, I know baseball. Yes, I even drink beer.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jun 23, 2008 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's pretty strange

That losing as much as we do gives us a better chance for the future than winning would have. Particularly because there was just no way we were going to get very far with the players we’ve been saddled with.

by ThundaPC on Jun 22, 2008 9:47 PM PDT reply actions  

The Giants are probably the biggest threat for Strasburg

They had their little run of mediocrity, but their talent level is beginning to reveal its true self.

All the other contenders either have key contributors coming back from injury or big time prospects who could break out at any minute.

by discovolante on Jun 22, 2008 10:29 PM PDT reply actions  

This blows my mind.

The following hitters are above average according to OPS+

Molina
Aurilia
Durham
Lewis
Rowand
Winn

I know Fred Lewis is decent and everything, and Lincecum has been incredible, which I kind of expected, but I NEVER expected the offense to be this respectable. It can’t last, right?

by Teej on Jun 23, 2008 2:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

It help when your BABIP is .740

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 23, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

So many GIFs

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on Jun 22, 2008 11:15 PM PDT reply actions  

The book is out on Silva

Larry Stone: One of the Atlanta reporters asked Kelly Johnson after the game what their strategy was against Silva. “Swing,’’ he replied.

by Alex B on Jun 23, 2008 6:26 AM PDT reply actions  

hahaha

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 23, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

What?

Your= "belonging to you" You're= "You are" (like the song)

by JI on Jun 23, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not putting much stock into the rumor

but apparently Jason Stark was on the air with Mitch Leavy this morning and said that Gillick is either interested or is being considered for the role of team president. I haven’t even heard the interview, this is all per Churchill.

by BrianL on Jun 23, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

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