Final Thoughts on Moneyball and our next GM
But it's more like corporate ethics masquerading as science. To be ruthlessly efficient and to exploit market inefficiencies is a pathway to winning ballgames. It's the same path that Wallmart founders used to build an economic juggernaut. There is a science to it, but it isn't a paragon of "the scientific approach." And it may have unforeseen consequences.
The broader impact is that it rips away the facade of baseball. The game of baseball... a child's game played by adults and paid for by fans that want entertainment... isn't supposed to be all about maximizing your market leverage. It's about hometown heroes. It's about clutch performances. It's about which player you want to be when you grow up.
The problem is that no one ever wanted to be Scott Hatteberg.
And I dug up some actual data to make this case:
In the seven seasons from 2000-2006, the A's had a monster run... They sustained a near .600 winning percentage despite their woeful payroll. They made the playoffs five of those seven seasons. During that time span the league-average yearly attendance was around 2.3 million fans. Oakland averaged a meager 2.1 over that time frame. Their season total attendance eclipsed league average exactly once... in 2003, the year after they had won 103 games. In 2006, a year when they won 93 games and the division title, they actually drew less than 2 million fans... one of the worst showings in the league. Despite their amazing success in the win column, fans really didn't care. They didn't show up because watching guys take walks and go from base to base rather than risk an exciting stolen base attempt is boring. As much as I have tried to like this team (I always root for underdogs) I was never able to latch on to any of their players either.
Compare this to 1988-92, when Tony LaRussa's club made it to the post-season four out of five years. Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire powered a high-octane offense. Rickey Henderson stole every base in sight. These were a rip-snorting, steroids-injecting bunch of bashers. The average attendance per year for that half-decade was significantly above league-average (about 2.6 million fans per season compared to a league-average of 2.2 million.) People just 12 years earlier had shown up in droves for this same team.
Billy Beane decided somewhere along the line that winning ballgames was the most important goal... Win and everybody's happy. The Mariner's front office conversely seems to have decided that making money is the bottom line, so they worry more about drawing 3+ million fans every year than they do about winning. They put more thought into their funny advertising campaign each year than they do the annual draft.
Personally, I find that the real bottom line... the line that everyone keeps smudging... is entertainment. Professional baseball shouldn't exist. It's ridiculous that we pay grown men tens of millions of dollars a year to play a kid's game. It's ridiculous that I follow it as closely as I do. The only reason I pay any attention to this game is for its entertainment value.
Beane and company are changing the way the game is played behind the scenes (constantly evaluating the market to see what skills are undervalued.) They're also changing the way the game is played on the field (fewer stolen base attempts, more emphasis on taking pitches.) These changes have resulted in more wins. More wins means that other teams are adapting to this approach. Already on-base percentage has become overvalued and the A's have had to start searching for other interesting stats. It's an ever evolving process of trying to outshark the next guy.
The problem is that walks are a loophole. They are a penalty invented by the framers of the game. They aren't what baseball is supposed to be about. The core of the game, which is what made America's pasttime popular in the first place, is a pitcher trying to throw the ball past a guy doing his best to knock the stuffing out of it. Walks are boring. They slow down an already glacial game even more. And yet, Beane's success is changing the landscape of baseball so that more and more players are trained to look for walks. This is, as reflected in the attendance data cited above, BAD FOR BASEBALL... because baseball is still about entertainment and walks can never replace the core dynamic of the game.
Hopefully this has just been a market-correction blip, rather than a permanent change. Otherwise baseball is in trouble. Someone upset the applecart and now Bud Selig and the rest of the game's leadership is going to be hardpressed to fix it. Michael Lewis sees this as something to celebrate... a new kind of enlightenment. I don't think I can agree. These changes are going to force changes in the rules of the game to keep it interesting... like when a video game requires an update patch because enterprising players found a way to circumvent the rules and gain an unintended advantage.
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38 comments
Comments
Impeccable argument
The Boston Red Sox, with the highest OBP in the American League, are a famously unpopular and unappealing team.
by Will Kier on Jun 16, 2008 7:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Red Sox have a lot going for them
beyond the OBP
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so you're saying
other factors besides OBP influence attendance?
by Will Kier on Jun 16, 2008 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jonathan Papsmear.
by Wilder. on Jun 16, 2008 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well...
the point is that johnbai had no problem in his diary making a 1:1 connection between low A’s attendence and their propensity for taking walks and not stealing. Yet when the Red Sox are brought up, suddenly attendance has many causes and OBP isn’t that important.
They didn’t show up because watching guys take walks and go from base to base rather than risk an exciting stolen base attempt is boring
If Red Sox attendance/popularity is the result of many forces, then Oakland attendance is, too. I’d like to see johnbai explain why that’s not the case.
by Will Kier on Jun 16, 2008 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fenway Park is a big draw for fans in a wealthy city.
Oakland Coliseum is not a big draw for fans in a not-so-wealthy city.
by Wilder. on Jun 16, 2008 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will
You make a great counterpoint… I can’t really prove Oakland’s amazingly low attendance is directly related to Billyball strategies. Do you have any differing theories? Did the SF economy collapse? I haven’t done a complete analysis.
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Have you done any analysis?
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
by marcello on Jun 16, 2008 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SF and Oakland are completely different cities.
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by acblue on Jun 16, 2008 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, yes they are
Are you suggesting that a collapse of the SF economy wouldn’t have an effect on Oakland’s attendance?
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a collapse of Oakland's economy would have a bigger effect.
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by acblue on Jun 16, 2008 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not an Oakland expert
but I’ve heard the Coliseum and its sketchy location is an issue, keeping otherwise potential stadium visitors away. It sounds like their ownership agrees, based on whatever rumblings I’ve read that the A’s are beginning to plan for a big payroll boost in the new stadium.
Maybe a roving athleticsnation lurker could add their few cents.
by Will Kier on Jun 16, 2008 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could be that the sketchiness changed
in the previous 12 years… because the Oakland A’s of the 88-91 era had no problem being among the league leaders in attendance.
Would be cool to hear from AN lurkers.
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Colosseum could also not look as good now as it did in the 80s.
We don't negotiate with terrorists.
by Mariner John on Jun 16, 2008 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You rang?
The Coliseum is in the same place it was 20 years ago, but they did ugly it up to lure the Raiders out of LA, and that hurt some. The ownership makes this worse by constantly bitching about the stadium—bad marketing, that.
But even if there had been no changes to the stadium, I think the attendance figures for Beane’s teams would still be surprisingly low. And why would these teams be unpopular, un-entertaining? Not because they walk too much or don’t steal enough (as you point out, they don’t even walk that much more than anybody else anymore), but because they don’t have stars.
Moneyball doesn’t advocate the absence of stars, but Moneyball was the vehicle by which Beane became famous for-more than anything else-showing that he could win without stars, as he did in 2002 after losing Giambi. And ever since, he’s made a pastime out of deporting fan favorites.
He’s been remarkably good at pulling off his Moneyball trick again and again—maintaining a winning team despite one departure after another. But the A’s are always manned mostly by a bunch of young kids that nobody’s ever heard of.
Brainless Automaton #439
by rubin sierra on Jun 16, 2008 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
judging by the civic angst in seattle over griffey
I wouldn’t be surprised to find out the star issue’s been some part of it.
by Will Kier on Jun 16, 2008 10:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great response!
I think this might be the most important part after all. Nothing pisses off a fanbase more than seeing their talent jump ship. Which puts GM’s in a peculiar bind. You always want to trade a player one year too soon rather than one year too late… but imagine if the M’s had dumped Boonie, Olerud, Edgar, etc. before they started to suck. We might have seen empty seats at Safeco too!
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pac Bell Park
Another difference between the A’s of 88-90 and the A’s of today is the Giants have a state-of the art ballpark while the A’s have a crappy one. This undoubtedly has a huge impact on casual fans.
by SamS on Jun 17, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting perspective.
One which I’ll admit having never really considered from the perspective you presented.
I’m not sure if I agree with the conclusion, but there is most certainly validity to it. Slower games should be less conducive to gathering the attention of the fans than a fast-paced, loose style revolving around high BA’s, low BB’s and tons of movement on the basepaths.
I think it’s entirely possible that this is in play with the M’s and the way they do business. All the casual fans know to look at BA and HR’s, so if they M’s get players that can show reasonable ability with these results then their fanbase should be interested and happy. Thus 3million+ yearly attendance marks. Those same fans don’t want to see a .240 BA with 19 HR’s at the end of the year, even if he’s doing perfectly fine because he’s able to grind out a .380 OBP.
Interesting.
by misterjonez on Jun 16, 2008 7:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I see what you're getting at and I can understand part of it,
but I disagree in the conclusion. I think Oakland is too special of a case and I feel that no matter how unlikeable the team is, winning breeds attendence.
by Matthew on Jun 16, 2008 9:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
If the history of baseball (and sports in general) reflects anything, it’s that winning draws fans, and nothing else (besides a few select experiences: Wrigley, Lambeau) really matters. Teams can be aesthetic marvels, or they can be plodding, boring types, but if they win, people will show up, because fans want to see wins.
Also, using one team’s attendance as a way to measure the overall popularity of walks is just plain stupid. It’s also not as if the late 90s-mid 2000s A’s were the first team to build an offense around high OBP players…just look at the 2000-2003 Mariners, who might have drawn pretty well if I recall.
I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little
by Sportszilla on Jun 16, 2008 9:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I started with the question
how could a successful team have such terrible attendance? I had never heard of such a thing, and believed that winning teams will always draw fans. In looking for reasons, I wondered about Beane’s teambuilding tactics to see if they were important. I think geography might factor, but I also think Rubin (above) pointed out that trading your star players at their peak really causes fans to turn off. I also think that the A’s might have disappointed too many fans by getting close to a championship but choking in the playoffs.
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are other examples.
The Marlins (when they were good) and Indians come to mind. The selling-off of stars is a common thread, but I’m not quite willing to believe it’s the cause just yet. There are so many factors involved (many of them not directly related to baseball) that a fairly extensive study would be required to come to any meaningful conclusions. Not to dismiss the idea completely, because it almost certainly is a factor to some extent (especially in the case of the Marlins) and it’s definitely a worthwhile discussion.
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by acblue on Jun 16, 2008 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casual baseball town
I think this is the case with most city with lots of casual baseball fans. Even with Tampa’s abysmal historical attendance, I would be utterly shocked if it hasn’t picked up there. Same with the Marlins.
by batura on Jun 18, 2008 2:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
...you’re ignoring the traditionally terrible attendance Oakland has. If the Charles Finley As, who won three world series, couldn’t draw, then why are we surprised the Moneyball As can’t draw.
by rtang on Jun 16, 2008 10:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also a good point
I only compared them to the LaRussa A’s… which drew pretty well.
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A tad more research into attendance trends
I looked at team stats and attendance figures for 2001 to 2006.
Other than the A’s there were only 7 teams that finished in the top 5 in wins and didn’t finish in the top ten of attendance. The A’s (in a league of their own here) finished in the top five in wins 4 times… and never got higher than 17th in attendance.
In 2001 there were none.
In 2002 there was Atlanta (#13 in attendance) and the Angels (#16 in attendance)
In 2003 there were none.
In 2004 there was Boston (#11 in attendance) and Atlanta (#16 in attendance)
In 2005 there was the Chisox (#17 in attendance)
In 2006 there was Minnesota (#19 in attendance) and Detroit (#13 in attendance.)
Oakland finished #19, 18, 17, 19, 19, 26 in those years.
Of the unusual teams that finished in top 5 wins and out of the top ten for attendance, in the next year, all but two of these teams joined the top 10 in attendance. Only Atlanta and Minnesota failed to draw enough to crack the top 10 in the following year.
Only two of these teams were in the top 10 in basestealing: The 02 Angels and the 05 Chisox. These two were also among the worst in OBP (along with 06 Detroit who sucked at both but led the league in ERA.) The other 4 teams all finished in the top 10 in OBP.
Not surprisingly, Atlanta made the list twice… putting ATL and OAK in a similar category: great teams that no one shows up to see. Not baseball towns? Fanbases tired of getting close but not winning the World Series?
by johnbai on Jun 16, 2008 10:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Oakland attendance thing is well discussed above
So let me touch on something else you said.
Personally, I find that the real bottom line… the line that everyone keeps smudging… is entertainment. Professional baseball shouldn’t exist. It’s ridiculous that we pay grown men tens of millions of dollars a year to play a kid’s game. It’s ridiculous that I follow it as closely as I do. The only reason I pay any attention to this game is for its entertainment value.
I have had the opportunity to chat with you a couple of times and I have seen firsthand your internal debate about being a Major League Baseball fan. I am all for the introspection that makes up who you are, but you are wrong in saying that professional baseball should not exist. It exists for one reason only and that is demand. In a free market society any venture will shrivel and die if there are no consumers.
It actually bums me out that you curtail your own enjoyment of the game by chastising yourself for liking it. However, that is your own battle and I commend you for even having the ability to think that way.
In your thought process think of this. For many of us, especially myself, baseball is more than entertainment, it is a full on escape without the hangover. Whether I am at the game or listening on the radio, I get to suspend my connection to reality. No bills, no missed quotas, no deaths, no disappointed wife, just baseball. Baseball has helped me through some dark days even when I am watching a horrible home nine.
by Sec 108 on Jun 17, 2008 9:27 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Thanks Sec
I think you’re right… and this is largely a projection of my own internal debate over why I even like baseball and what I’d like to see in a local baseball team.
It’s also a projection of what I like and dislike about my own work environment.
All sorts of things (Griffey hitting back to back homeruns with his father, Cal Ripken playing infinity # of games without missing a day, Edgar Martinez and Tony Gwynn spending their whole career with a single team) make baseball great… none of those things have value in Billyworld. I’m not sure that’s a team philosophy I could enjoy.
Oddly, I was prodded into thinking about this by the Sign Barry Bonds debate. Personally, I don’t have any dislike of Bonds, so it wouldn’t bother me if the M’s signed him. Other people, people who hate Bonds for some real or imagined reason, have told me that they would never go to another Mariners game if they signed Barry. I countered that Barry will help them win ballgames… and that winning games cures everything. They said, “No… I know that he’ll help them win… he could even take them to the World Series… I just wouldn’t enjoy it. I can not root for the man, no matter what team he plays for.” I couldn’t exactly agree with their venom about Bonds, but I could relate to their fundamental issue: If you don’t like the team, it doesn’t matter if they win. There has to be something you like about the team in order to feel fulfilled as a fan.
by johnbai on Jun 17, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know I am not the norm on this one,
But I will never in my life boycott a team, because somehow baseball has a hold on my soul. I could no more stop going to games than I could stop breathing. If I had to move to Salt Lake tomorrow I would have Bee’s season tickets by the end of the day. It is just who I am, so when I hear people talking about boycotts or giving up on baseball I just do not relate.
For me bad baseball, bad beer and bad sex are all the same. They are all better than not having baseball, beer or sex.
by Sec 108 on Jun 17, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree about the beer.
Good beer is nearly always possible to find. The other two, however…
Yes, I'm a girl. Yes, I know baseball. Yes, I even drink beer.
by NOLAmarinergirl on Jun 17, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most people here disagree with me about the beer.
That is fine, because it is merely my own flawed opinion.
by Sec 108 on Jun 17, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least you are able to acknowledge your flaws.
Yes, I'm a girl. Yes, I know baseball. Yes, I even drink beer.
by NOLAmarinergirl on Jun 17, 2008 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're wrong. I recall some research out of Cleveland in the 1990s
that showed that attendance was most influenced by the previous season’s winning percentage, and everything beyond that was inelastic.
Oakland didn’t draw many fans partly because they had a crappy park in a crappy location. But they drew more fans when they won.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 17, 2008 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So in other words...
you’re a closet Giants fan?
Unless you’ve been to both pre and post Mt. Davis Colisuem, it’s not hard to see why folks rather stay home and watch.
"Twenty minutes," says Jack Sr. "Thank god for Billy Beane."
by ST on Jun 17, 2008 10:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Al Davis Reconfigurable Hole is not a great place to watch a game.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jun 17, 2008 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've read this a couple of times now.
Here’s my main problem with it. You’re glossing over the reasons Beane manages the organization the way he does. His job is to put a winning team on the field with zero money to work with, and for him to succeed in his job he has to do things that he might not do with a higher payroll. I’m fairly certain that Beane would hang on to veteran players more often than he does if he had the means to do so, but it’s not currently a reality. If I’m wrong, we’ll find out soon enough.
In addition, Beane’s strategy isn’t necessarily “walks, homers and the rest be damned.” This is the biggest misconception about the book and about the Oakland A’s that people seem to have. Part of that is due to the way the book was written, and part of it is due to high-profile “analysts” and baseball men, who have never read the book and refuse to acknowledge Beane’s success as being remarkable. spouting off ridiculous untruths.
Beane’s strategy is to find the elements of winning baseball teams that the market undervalues. At the time the book was written, that was OBP, as well as a few other things to lesser degrees. As others have said, in the years that followed, OBP became more expensive and the importance of other factors, such as speed and defense, became clearer. The idea was never “this is the only way to build a winning team” it was “this is, at the present time, the best way for the Oakland A’s, given their unique circumstances, to build a winning team.” The A’s priorities have shifted, and they’ve begun doing things that they never would have done in 2002 because the market has changed dramatically.
I think you make some valid points and ask some valid questions, but I think you’re still misrepresenting the situation to a large degree. That doesn’t mean there’s not value in your ideas and the questions you bring up, but I think there’s some flaws in the processes that lead to your conclusions.
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by acblue on Jun 17, 2008 12:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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