More Fun With PITCHf/x, Now With ∞% More Brandon Morrow
Matthew the Data Fairy was once again kind enough to send me all the information necessary to generate this post. Just as was the case with Bedard a few days ago, I didn't play around with the numbers trying to reach any conclusion or reveal something previously unknown; I did it so I could make some pretty pictures that I think you'll find interesting. Because who doesn't like pretty pictures?
The first thing I want to show is a scatterplot of (nearly) every pitch Brandon Morrow has thrown this season, split up by pitch type. You'll notice I didn't distinguish between Morrow's curveball and slider - he's thrown both, but they're incredibly difficult to isolate from one another in the data, so I didn't bother. They both do sort of the same thing anyway. So:
This is from the hitter's perspective, so righties stand around -2.5 on the x axis and lefties around +2.5. I don't know what you'll notice first, but for me, it's just how good Morrow has been so far at locating the ball. After running a few calculations, only 16% of Morrow's pitches have missed the rulebook strike zone by more than six inches, and less than 6% have missed by more than a foot. If you think about how small the zone really seems from the pitcher's mound, that's pretty impressive. At least, I think that's pretty impressive. I don't know the league averages here, or where Morrow stood a year ago, but my first thought right now is that keeping 84% of pitches within six inches of the strike zone is a heck of an accomplishment, especially for someone who struggled so badly just last summer.
Fun fact: 86 of Morrow's pitches have missed the zone horizontally (too far inside/outside), 62 have missed the zone vertically (too high/low), and 21 have missed both. Those vertical misses, by the way, are split equally - 31 high, 31 low.
Some other stuff you can see in the scatterplot...Morrow likes to keep his changeup low, frequently below the knees. The breaking ball, meanwhile, has caught more of the plate, and my guess is that he does this on purpose because it's such a mindfuck when a hitter who's looking fastball (as they all have to be) gets something that breaks. Seems like a dynamite recipe for called strikes. The fastball has been all over the place, presumably because Morrow can get away with it.
After the Bedard post, you should recognize these other plots. Hell, even if you didn't read the Bedard post, you should recognize these plots anyway provided you're a smart user and you spend a lot of time over at THT reading the good PITCHf/x work put forth by Josh Kalk and Mike Fast.
These are what the average Brandon Morrow fastball, changeup, and breaking ball look like from the side. If you insist on distinguishing between his slider and curveball, just replace the yellow line with two new ones - one with a little less drop, and one with a little more. You can see that Morrow throws a pretty straight fastball, but that's simply because it isn't in the air long enough to move very much. He gets that thing to home plate in less than four-tenths of a second. He's released his changeup from slightly lower - probably closer to the plate - and hidden it in his fastball incredibly well. You can see it traces the same path before dropping off the table and coming in at the knees. The breaking ball's been everything Morrow's wanted it to be - surprising and accurate enough to be a weapon. It doesn't have the sharpest break in the world, but when the hitter's sitting on something hard and straight, it gets the job done like you wouldn't believe.
Now from above. Morrow's thrown his breaking ball from just a little bit closer to his body, possibly in a (subconscious?) effort to get a little more downward tilt. Look at the changeup - it's got Nintendo run to it, allowing him to try to drop it in backdoor against righties and either on the inner black or just outside against lefties. While different pitchers throw different changeups, it's worth noting that, to date, Morrow's change has had more movement than those of Felix, Tim Lincecum, and Cole Hamels. That just sounds disgusting. His fastball is what it is - hard and straight. As we've sort of established, it doesn't really matter how a fastball moves as long as it's located fairly well and coming in at upwards of 140 feet per second.
So that's the season data. But just for fun, I thought I'd take a look at one particular at bat. And what better than arguably the most dominant at bat of the season?
With Pedroia sitting fastball on the first pitch, Morrow gives him a slider that nearly dives to the dirt, and Pedroia helplessly swings over top of it for strike one. Ahead in the count, Morrow follows that up with some massive heat at the belt, and with the slider now in the back of his mind, all Pedroia can do is swing late and foul the pitch off.
In front 0-2, Morrow found himself in total control of the at bat, and he gave Pedroia what I think was his best pitch of the season: a 99.6mph belt-high fastball (highest all year) four inches off the outside of the plate. There's absolutely nothing Pedroia could've done. He couldn't let the pitch go by, because it was too close to take and he had to protect, but at the same time he didn't stand any chance of making contact, because the pitch was well off the plate outside and he was still thinking about that slider. So Pedroia swung, and Pedroia missed, and Morrow pumped his first and walked to the dugout having held on to a narrow lead.
Complete and utter domination. There aren't many pitchers capable of making one of the toughest strikeouts in baseball look so bad, but Morrow's got the stuff, and so far this year it looks like he plans on using it.
5 recs |
50 comments
Comments
gifs have changed the world for the better
And, hey, look who didn’t throw a first pitch FB.
by JI on Jun 11, 2008 12:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Was that a change?
Change ups usually dart down and in to a righty. That looked more like a split or a helluva tight curve.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 11, 2008 1:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Graham means in general Morrow's change is disgusting (in a good way).
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phildopip on Jun 11, 2008 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few weeks old Roto Wire post...
Morrow will not transition to the rotation this season, the Seattle Times reports.
Spin: Just when it looked like the organization might finally make a move to benefit the future, the Mariners return to their short-sighted ways. The M’s considered either stretching out Morrow out of the bullpen or sending him to Triple-A to eventually start. Manager John McLaren said Morrow’s dominating outing Tuesday played a part in the decision to keep Morrow in a set-up role. Of course, the Mariners have absolutely nothing to play for this season (they’re 15 games under .500), so what possible need is there to keep Morrow in a late-inning role? What a debacle.
Good to know the outside world views our special FO as batshit insane too.
"Dragons" are actually dinosaurs hunted to extinction by man in the Middle Ages. Check your Chinese calendars people.
by Frosty Raptor on Jun 11, 2008 5:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Everyone knows our FO is retarded except for our FO
Go Nova
by dbroncos31 on Jun 11, 2008 5:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why does the breaking ball appear to bearly break horizontally?
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 6:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
So would you call it a 12-6 slurve?
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Usually harder than a sluve, but that's the idea
breaks straight down (for the most part).
by Jeff on Jun 11, 2008 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here you go:
Average pfx_x:
Fastball: -4.65
Change: -9.49
Breaking ball: 0.50
by Jeff on Jun 11, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(Negative = break in towards righties, positive = break away from righties)
units are inches
by Jeff on Jun 11, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the horizontal and vertical movement for his slider
I wonder why it wasn’t classified as a curveball
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's part of the problem
if he really is throwing two different breaking balls, they move in such a similar fashion that they’re almost impossible to pick apart. Mostly down, little away. Among all of his breaking balls, there’s a spread of only ~7 in pfx_x (horizontal) and ~7.5 in pfx_z (vertical), with minimal grouping. It’s just hard, so for these purposes I didn’t bother trying.
by Jeff on Jun 11, 2008 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant on his pitch f/x card
It seems odd that they were all classified as sliders
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It really has looked like his breaking ball is pretty flat on the horizontal plane
really surprised by that since he’s primarily a slider guy IIRC
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2008 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thought it was the split that he was known for coming out of college?
by Matthew on Jun 11, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I read that he stopped throwing his splitter
but I could be wrong.
by Jeff on Jun 11, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm pretty sure you're right
I don’t know why I said slider. Well I do, but I don’t want to admit it.
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2008 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatchoo thinkin' bout Willis?
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on Jun 11, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wha?

Jl/Robert '08: Promise for a CoachCage on Friday nights!
by Fin on Jun 11, 2008 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I's thinkin' about A ball.
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on Jun 11, 2008 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How does a ball break bearly?

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm too scared to do a google image search for "bear"
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phildopip on Jun 11, 2008 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might get fired.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phildopip on Jun 11, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see any large gay men when I did it
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Sweeeeeetttttttttttttttttttt
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I quote:
“but when the hitter’s sitting on something hard and straight, it gets the job done like you wouldn’t believe.”
Something you need to tell us Jeff?
by GhettoBear04 on Jun 11, 2008 8:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That sentence was rec worthy by itself
even without the rest of the post. BTW, his change is just filthy, and IIRC he was a FB/SL guy coming out of college too. Ridiculous potential in that right arm of his.
Now only if he was starting…
by seattlebruin on Jun 11, 2008 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that he succesfully closed a game, say goodbye to him ever starting IMHO.
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on Jun 11, 2008 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Things might, and I put emphasis on might, change if Squinty gets the pink slip.
I’m not sure if it’s the FO or field management that’s the true culprit, but ol Squinty McClusterfuck seems to be leading the Morrow for Eternal Bullpen charge.
by BrianL on Jun 11, 2008 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are we starting to see the logic
the m’s used to take him over lincecum. Bigger guy with a much less violent delivery.
by houseofprime on Jun 11, 2008 2:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Theoretically.
But which guy keeps missing little chunks of time due to shoulder soreness, etc?
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on Jun 11, 2008 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be willing to bet my left nut...
that the first pitch is a split.
by coasty141 on Jun 11, 2008 6:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No place to really put this, but Jesus is Jason Giambi creepy with that stache

by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on Jun 11, 2008 8:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely government issue...
this further confirms what I was saying yesterday about moustaches making guys look like paedophiles
by pakipaki on Jun 11, 2008 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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