Beltre is good. Really Good
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 1, 2008 7:11 PM PDT
Email
PrintThe Average fan looking at Beltre's year is probably only paying attention to one thing. The ugly little .244 under the Batting Average stat.
It not really fair how luck as treated Beltre this year, but even in one of the unluckiest seasons Beltre is probably ever going to see, Beltre is tearing it up.
Beltre leads all 3rd basemen (AL and NL) in HR's with 13, and 3rd in the AL.
Add onto that Beltre leads the Mariners in walks, Adjusted OPS, Total Bases, Batting Wins, and LD%
And you can guess that the best is yet to come. In Beltre's monstrous 2004 season Beltre entered the second half of the season with only 16 HR's. Beltre is on pace to hit more than that before the All Star Break this year. Do I expect him to repeat '04. No. But I do expect him to put in one of his best seasons he's had in a Mariner uniform.
Beltre's year is very decieving and i hope the Fans realize actually how good a fyear he is actually having (I men the average fan, not you guys). Here's hoping his luck turns around and some hits fall in for him.
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Funny
Because I’ve got a Point-Counterpoint about the use of statistics in Baseball in The Daily for Tuesday’s paper and I used Beltre as an prime example of why basic stats like BA don’t show the fan diddly squat. Beltre deserves far more credit and I can almost hear the murmurs around Safeco, “Beltre’s only batting .244, he sucks just like the rest of the team.”
In any case, he’s friggin awesome and I hope luck starts headed his way.
ALSO, haven’t the last three of his homeruns been solo-shots? that really really sucks.
The Column I've written
should be in Tuesday’s paper at The Daily, Christian Caple is the Counterpoint..er?
Check it out, I’ve been trying to learn more about statistics and what they tell us about players, teams and other things, and I thought I’d try to share what i’ve learned with a University audience.
Yes they have.
its unfortunate but I don’t know that Beltre gets the same pitches he got if there are men on base. I am hoping that luck won’t even be a factor after the ASB. Beltre is a notrious second half player and with just normal luck we could be in for a awesome show. Good luck to him.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 1, 2008 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions
A tip:
This topic isn’t something that hasn’t already been covered before by the site authors (as well as being covered in more depth as well). Most, if not all, regular readers know that Generic Mariner Fan isn’t thrilled with Beltre and that it’s stupid that they think so.
My bad
I haven’t been here that long. In the time I have I haven’t seen anything, but once again my bad. And yes it is very stupid that Beltre is not just adored by the fans. He should be. they don’t know what they are getting.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 1, 2008 9:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Not this team, anyway
Free Stephen Awesome Strasburg!
I humbly disagree
I think this team would be among the most upset learning that one of their players is having sex with cats, let alone three or more at the same time. Cat orgies do not fit with the family friendly image of the club.
by Ike Clanton on Jun 2, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cat orgies do too fit with a family friendly image.
Sexy cat families, that is.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Any ideas
What sort of line Beltre would be putting up with a normalized BABIP?
Are we talking about a .290/.360/.550 guy in regular-luck-world here? His walk-rate has jumped and he’s hitting line drives like crazy.
Hookay?
.300/.371/.526
Assuming that his missing luck manifests itself as extra singles only.
by Graham MacAree on Jun 2, 2008 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions
That would be my guess as well.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 2, 2008 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions
But rememer his LD%
A lot of that BABIP is going to be unlucky singles turning into outs but I’ll bet a fair portion are some doubles too.
Hookay?
Just curious,
what equation did you use to come up with that? I’m sure it’s rather simple and I’d like to know.
NEEDS LESS SUCK
I'm pretty sure he just took the difference in expected BABIP, and back calculated to get the number of hits he's lost
then added that to his current total as all singles, and recalculated BA/OBP/SLG
Hmmm.
Signs pointing to “No”
1) Scott Boras client. Have any Boras clients signed extensions, or have they all gone to FA? I’d say it’s pretty clear he’s not going to get an extension. I doubt we’ll win the FA battle again…
2) Playing on a losing club, a terrible club pretty much going nowhere.
3) Safeco Field eats his batting stats.
Signs pointing to “Yes”
1) Red.
2) Team and clubhouse leader – seems to like the team and the city.
3) Red.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
How many FA eligible players sign extensions at all?
The number is incredibly small and limited to mostly mediocre players of whom Boras doesn’t really bother with. Jason Varitek and Bernie Williams for example both “hit FA” but then resigned with their former club as Boras clients. And if you’re going to bring up Boras you also have to mention that Bavasi is one of the few GMs with a good working relationship with Boras so it’s pretty much a wash.
2 and 3 aren’t signs of anything unless we know Beltre cares about that. Ditto 1 and 2 on the plus side.
A week or so ago, Churchill said that the chances of Beltre re-signing were basically zero
you think that was just speculation based on Boras’ track record, or did he have something to go on there?
by seattlebruin on Jun 2, 2008 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Having spoken a lot w/Churchill on this issue...
It’s more than just mere personal speculation on his part. It’s still speculation, sure, (because things can and do change) but he’s reporting what he’s hearing from folks close to that particular situation.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on Jun 2, 2008 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I have no idea where Churchill got said information
and that’s why I don’t count it as a sign since I view his sources that same way I view MLBTR (though unlike most people here, I don’t consider that an insult). Beltre is 18 months away from free agency. A ton can and will change in that time frame including everything from Beltre’s performance, his client status with Boras, the front office Beltre’s agent would be negotiating with.
Now, to be really clear about this. I’m NOT saying Churchill is wrong. I’m just saying I don’t know and I’m insanely skeptical of inside information unless I know where/who it comes from.
Apprently Boras ia already planning
A LA reunion. So yes all signs points to no. I believe he has been approached about an extension already, but he he didn’t want to talk about ti mid season.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 2, 2008 7:35 PM PDT up reply actions
One of those LA teams ;)
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on Jun 2, 2008 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I have top stay positive on this to prevent me from killing the M's entire front office!!!
Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying, Beltre is staying,
My quick smells like french toast.
You killing the Ms entire front office might be your best bet to get him to stay.
I’m sure you’d have about seventeen alibis.
Get the photoshops ready!
I fucking hate you Mariners
Jeff was right. I snapped this picture of Red with Jeff and I in India during the murders.
So it obviously couldn’t have been any of us three.
by Matthew on Jun 4, 2008 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're not in the picture
a local probably took it.
FRAME MATTHEW!
by seattlebruin on Jun 4, 2008 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think I'd be that excited to see the Taj Mahal
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 4, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions
You were because it was free beer Wednesdays
I know, it was weird. Odd that you don’t remember that happening since you were clearly there.
That's why you were dry heaving in the picture.
You have very similar reactions to extreme excitement and debilitating stomach cramps.
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