I Was Wondering When It Would Come To This
The thread below inspired me to take a closer look at Yuniesky Betancourt to see just how much he's actually contributing to this team. For a while we've been assuming that he's a pretty average bat for a shortstop with above-average defense, but how does this stand up to investigation? I decided to avoid work for half an hour to find out.
Let me tell you - it doesn't stand up very well.
When he first came up to the big leagues, Yuni wowed us with his defense, and when the advanced metrics didn't support our opinions we wrote it off as a sample size anomaly. But here's the problem with maintaining that stance: Yuni has more than 3000 innings under his belt now as a Major League shortstop, and the advanced metrics still don't like him very much. Here are the big three to which I have the easiest access:
RZR, 2005-2008
Yuni: .802, 37 OOZ per 1000 innings
Average SS: .821, 41 OOZ per 1000 innings
PMR, 2005-2007
Yuni: 462 outs per 4000 in play, .115 DER
Average SS: 459 outs per 4000 in play, .115 DER
UZR, 2005-2007
Yuni: -5 runs per 150 games
Average SS: 0 runs per 150 games (duh)
That's bad. The numbers are painting the picture of a guy who's something like -10 < x < 0 runs in the field, relative to his position, and both the agreement and sample size are good enough for us to be able to say this with a fair bit of confidence. I think a lot of us have been giving this some thought for a little while now, what with Yuni's added weight and visibly diminished range, but when you actually spell it out and put it in plain writing...it's a bit of a shock to realize that the thing you appreciated most about a player doesn't exist, and arguably never did.
So that's his defense. What about at the plate? Let's go with wOBA :
Yuni: .303 (career)
Average SS: .316 (2005-2008)
To convert wOBA into runs, you simply divide by 1.15, which gives you runs/PA. Over 600 plate appearances, wOBA puts Yuni at 7 runs below the average shortstop.
But then, wOBA isn't park-adjusted. If you prefer something that is, you can look at Baseball Prospectus' EqA (or you can convert wOBA yourself but let's just keep this simple):
Yuni: .241, 61 EqR per 600 PA (career)
Average SS: .253, 67 EqR per 600 PA (2005-2008)
That's not much better. Depending on what you think of the statistics and how you adjust for Safeco, Yuni again comes out as being -10 < x < 0 runs below the average shortstop, this time with the bat. Which - ignoring baserunning and other minor stuff that generally doesn't make much of a difference either way - gives you a guy who's somewhere between 0 and 20 runs below average for his position per season.
That isn't good. Which means Yuniesky Betancourt isn't good. The fact that he's a shortstop making a paltry $1.25m this year makes him a reasonable value, but for all his enthusiasm and contact and hilarious arm positioning when he's running the bases, he just isn't a good player.
And that's lame.
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That is lame.
Because he’s a blast to watch when he’s not frustrating the hell out of you.
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on May 8, 2008 1:13 PM PDT 0 recs
Realistically
who could we get to replace him and give us better results?
by BrianL on May 8, 2008 1:16 PM PDT 0 recs
Yuni isn't killing us, he just isn't very good
this team has way bigger issues to address.
by Jeff on
May 8, 2008 1:24 PM PDT
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All of our washed up 1B/DH/RF type players?
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on
May 8, 2008 1:44 PM PDT
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He's a mediocre shortstop.
Trade him to Toronto! They love mediocre shortstops.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on
May 8, 2008 1:31 PM PDT
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But theirs can field
I’m this close to advocating a straight-up Yuni/McDonald swap.
You see how far above average Toronto’s team D is? You see how far below average ours is?
Felix deserves to pitch in front of a great defense. At least one year in his career.
I’m hopeful, though by no means certain, that the M’s can arrange that; it’ll take a few years at the minimum now.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 1:47 PM PDT
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It's all relative
in 2008, Yuni has an RZR of .792 with 6 out of zone plays.
in 2008, Eckstein has an RZR of .875 with 10 out of zone plays.
so if Eckstein can’t field….
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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And Eckstein doesn't play every day.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on
May 8, 2008 4:12 PM PDT
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OSWALDO!!!!
Um. Or not.
Mike Morse
Oh, wait.
FREE WILLIE!!!!
Okay, I’ll stop.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on
May 8, 2008 1:26 PM PDT
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I've tried not to think about this much, but it's hard not to think that a .710 OPS bat with mediocre D might be hurting you...
Very, very lame.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 1:17 PM PDT 0 recs
Call up Triunfel!!
Just kidding, just kidding..
I like midgets more than I should.
by Thingray on
May 8, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
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When the scouts, or people like me, bemoan the reliability
of defensive metrics, this is the best counter-example going.
There’s never been a player who has garnered such universal acclaim amongst scouts (at least on the defensive side).
I’d still argue that the guy we saw in 2005 is just not the same guy we’re seeing now. He’s lost more than a step, and it’s painfully obvious now. This may be a case where averaging 3 years of data makes him look better than he actually is.
Sad.
by marc w on May 8, 2008 1:37 PM PDT 2 recs
Me, too.
Yuni in T-Town >>>>>> Yuni in Seattle…
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on
May 8, 2008 1:44 PM PDT
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My favourite part of going to games in 2005 was watching Yuni take ground balls
The man moved like a cat.
by Graham on
May 8, 2008 3:27 PM PDT
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above/below avgerage
I’ve always wondered how close to a normal distribution we get in talent at a position like SS. Looking at PMR, in 2007, there were 13 SS above the mean and 26 below.
It’s evident that Betancourt is not a good player, but simply by holding such a difficult to fill position at an acceptable level without absorbing much of the team’s salary, that’s a fairly significant contribution. I would also guess that, when taken as a whole, his net contribution is about the median.
by MrIncognito on May 8, 2008 1:47 PM PDT 0 recs
His defense looks far worse now than it did just last year and the years prior.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on
May 8, 2008 1:49 PM PDT
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I don't know
LAST year was the big eye-opener for me. Forget the errors, he just stopped getting to balls last year. I hoped, fervently, that this would regress to the mean, or that it was impossible to get to balls given up by Horacio and Reefer Jaw.
I guess that wasn’t it.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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That sounds like you could be describing Lopez too.
Most of the rest are just not good.
by Jed MC on
May 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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though with the position adjustment, it's daaaamn close
on paper, Lopez is a + defender, I think, which means it’s a toss-up.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 2:22 PM PDT
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Lopez is a 0 < x < 5 defender max.
I think it looks like gets to a lot of balls, but doesn’t always catch the ball. That ball before the Bautista/Baek implosion the other day represents Lopez’ play in my head. He got there, but missed the ball.
by Jed MC on
May 8, 2008 2:44 PM PDT
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That came across a little stronger than I meant.
I don’t know enough about baseball to make that solid a claim. He LOOKS like a 0 < x < 5 defender to my lay-eyes.
by Jed MC on
May 8, 2008 2:48 PM PDT
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That's what we had thought about Yuni too
And that was wrong
In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.
by rlintott on
May 8, 2008 2:54 PM PDT
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But the stats actually back it up for Lopez
Yes, he’s a 0
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 2:57 PM PDT
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Boo.
Someone needs to make a “Last Fan of Yuniesky Betancourt” screen name.
Or not. I still like him, but I feel like he’s let me down of late. And when his defense was better, it was nice to feel like he was helping the team.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on May 8, 2008 1:48 PM PDT 0 recs
You can still like a player who isn't very good.
Unless it’s Mike Morse. That’s not allowed.
by Jeff on
May 8, 2008 1:50 PM PDT
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A few winters ago Dave Cameron said that we'd be surprised
by what the offers the Mariners were getting for Yuni. I wonder what those were.
by JI on May 8, 2008 1:52 PM PDT 0 recs
yeeeeesh that's bad
good thing he’s reasonably priced.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on May 8, 2008 1:54 PM PDT 0 recs
I can't wait until we buy out his arb years and let Felix walk.
by JI on
May 8, 2008 1:56 PM PDT
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His arb years were bought out last April
He’s on a 4 year deal (through 2011) with a club option for 2012.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 1:58 PM PDT
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Hell if I know.
I guess.
My original sentiment is still hilarious though.
by JI on
May 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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Speaking of,
Isn’t it about time that the rumored Felix deal gets done? That would make the M’s recent shittiness easier to endure.
by Teej on
May 8, 2008 2:17 PM PDT
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Eh, I'm getting more of a New York / Boston signing vibe.
the other angels fan
by Eyebrows on
May 8, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
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SHUT UP SHUT UP SHUT UP
only we may talk about this, and then only in jest
by JI on
May 8, 2008 2:27 PM PDT
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Incorrect.
Every time we play the Yankees and Felix is pitching, they bring up the same stories over and over about how he liked the M’s because they weren’t a “big” team, and it seemed like they cared about him, not just the team. I don’t think that = him going to a big market team.
Now, when the Orioles get new ownership…
by Faux on
May 8, 2008 2:28 PM PDT
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I straight up asked him once
And he laughed and said he signed with Seattle for a reason
by Robert on
May 8, 2008 2:52 PM PDT
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Maybe he'll realize this extra muscle thing isn't working
and slim down for next year. And figure out how to hit.
by r0ry on May 8, 2008 1:55 PM PDT 0 recs
I'm not really sure how much of this is reversible
I’m guessing “very little”.
by Jeff on
May 8, 2008 1:59 PM PDT
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And I'm not so sure it's muscle, either.
It looks like he’s just getting chubby.
by Teej on
May 8, 2008 2:00 PM PDT
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Well regardless
Felix has proved that that can be taken care of as well.
by r0ry on
May 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT
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Yuni's not fat; Yuni's just fluffy!

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on
May 8, 2008 2:17 PM PDT
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He isnt great at D and hasnt had an XBH in almost 10 games..
Damnit.
by ASUBoyd on May 8, 2008 2:14 PM PDT 0 recs
I know it's been said in one way or the other in this thread already
but you can’t undervalue low-priced average (or near average) production. Average is still well above replacement level. I wouldn’t call Yuni not-good. He’s just not great, which is what many had thought previously. Still having an ~average SS for the $1-2 mil or whatever he’s getting a year is a good thing. It allows a team to allocate its money to get excellent players at other positions, although it’s arguable whether the mariners have done this. The only time having average players is bad is when the whole roster is average, and not complemented by superstars (See: Toronto Blue Jays).
the other angels fan
by Eyebrows on May 8, 2008 2:25 PM PDT 0 recs
Right, he is valuable
but I’d say ~average is his best possible scenario right now. The likelihood is that he’s a little below that.
He’s not good. He’s a value to have, but he’s not good.
by Jeff on
May 8, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
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Yeah
and it’s worth remembering that he’s bringing in close to $3.5m. This isn’t an MLB-minimum sort of a deal, people.
Still, he’s not killing the team, the contract’s not bad, etc. But we’re paying, per year, the free agent market rate on this guy (if $4m/win is ave. for FA, then I’d say his $3.5/a bit below is in the ballpark). That’s fine, it’s not awful. But when you’ve got young players in arb or in buy-outs, THAT’S where you’ve got to be making up ground – it’s not OK to get free-agent equivalent production from guys like that. It’s not crippling, but it’s frustrating.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 2:30 PM PDT
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avg and replacement value are different
So he’s still a good value at $3.5 mil.
by MrIncognito on
May 8, 2008 2:39 PM PDT
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I don't get how the subject and the body of this message connect
Right, he’s below average and above replacement. He’s getting paid roughly what a FA with his production would give you. So… how’s he a good value?
My point is that tying up these arb or pre-arb guys is generally a way to get GUARANTEED value. Given the system, any arb guys you tie up should be average or hopefully a bit better. That’s why it’s just a bit disappointing to see his production drop a bit below average, and the dollars creep up.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 3:02 PM PDT
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The math
http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/14/2008-win-values/
The value of a player on the free agent market is wins above replacement, not wins above average.
Lopez is 1-2 wins above replacement, so his value is in the neighborhood of $4.4-$8.8 million (Dave’s number at UUSM was $7.5 million). At a $3.5 million salary, he’s proving the Mariners with enough excess value to go buy a win somewhere else.
by MrIncognito on
May 8, 2008 3:33 PM PDT
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Blah, I meant Yuni
They all look the same anyways.
by MrIncognito on
May 8, 2008 3:45 PM PDT
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Gotcha
Forgot the positional and RL adj. is that huge.
We’ll have to the magnitude of his defensive…issues is. It could easily eat up a full win this year. That said, considering position, he’s still a net positive. Gotcha.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 3:54 PM PDT
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Averaging his $13.75/4 deal.
Jeff’s got the breakdown below, but I was just wingin’ it.
by marc w on
May 8, 2008 2:58 PM PDT
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His contract escalates (as you'd expect)
08: $1.25m
09: $2m
10: $3m
11: $4m
12: $6m option or $2m buyout
by Jeff on
May 8, 2008 2:47 PM PDT
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would really only work if we got a SS back
and those types of deals rarely happen.
Yuni will likely remain a value through 2010, if not for the full contract.
Trade him if you have someone to step in, but otherwise, motivate him to get better.
by Matthew on
May 8, 2008 3:02 PM PDT
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Well yeah
on the other hand, when you have a player who’s perceived value greatly outweighs his actual value you should be looking to take advantage of that situation. I don’t know whether there are any decent one year fill ins on the FA market or if there’s a long term SS out there that makes sense, but it’s something a good organization would explore.
by JI on
May 8, 2008 3:16 PM PDT
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Hmmm.
Any cheap options we could pick up at SS during the FA period that would be ~ $3 million on a 1-3 year deal and comparable to Yuni?
The way I see it, you flip him + talent for a decent young LHB at a corner OF position, sign this Mystery Free Agent SS (think Julio Lougo-ish), and you come out ahead.
by eponymous_coward on
May 8, 2008 3:18 PM PDT
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Er, Lugo
important thing: he can’t completely suck ala Aurilia, but he can be just OK because he’s cheap but not very good like Yuni.
by eponymous_coward on
May 8, 2008 3:19 PM PDT
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or when you are paying premuim FA $ for them
also see: Blue Jays, Toronto
by JI on
May 8, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
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Oh and I should add
Good post, Jeff. This is why we have that rec button.
the other angels fan
by Eyebrows on May 8, 2008 2:34 PM PDT 0 recs


