14-21
by JeffS on May 7, 2008 10:34 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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The first part of this video
is me watching the M’s this year (NSFW unless you have headphones)
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 8, 2008 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions
At least I can trust Engram enough not to skip games.
I’m very worried about the WR position, though.
This is true.
They seem to do wonders with just about anyone at WR. Is that more of a testament of Walrus’ coaching, or Hasselbeck’s ability?
It's a testament to the system
like the A’s say, the system is the star, not the players
So meaningful it needs to be in multiple places
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 7, 2008 11:43 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I love Plack, don't get me wrong
but there’s something about a Weaver screen pass that makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
we will all be saying weaver who
when owen takes his job
I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me.
Weaver is a far more complete FB.
More competent in the screen-passing game and a better lead-blocker. I’ll take Weaver over Beer Truck.
Really? Schmitt
is supposed to have very good lead blocking skills, while we know Weaver has been shaky in that area.
We'll see.
All I will say, though, is that I’d love to see a Schmitt/Weaver backfield a couple of times.
Weaver's biggest issue is lead blocking,
And that is Beer Truck’s strongest suit. As much as I love Weaver, he’s probably losing his job. Between Duckett and Beer Truck, they’ve pretty much replaced him.
I like midgets more than I should.
Looking back at game recaps
yeah Weaver has lead-blocking issues. I’m still not convinced Schmitt is the better fullback, though. Lots of hype right now, we’ll see how it plays out.
He is a rookie,
so you never know. But he was ranked as the best blocking back in the draft.
I like midgets more than I should.
Until that hype translates into performance
I’ve still got Weaver ranked as the #1 FB.
I love Weaver as much as the next guy.
Right up until the draft I had his jersey on my “gotta get one” list. But I think he’s in real trouble this year unless he just blows everyone away in camp.
I like midgets more than I should.
In Tim Ruskell I trust.
Someone convince him to GM the Mariners, too. Shit, forget it, just put the Seahawks on the diamond. They can’t be any worse.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 8, 2008 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I went to see Night of the Hunter at SIFF Cinema instead of watching the game tonight.
First thing I heard when I got in the car was Niehaus saying “Bloomquist on deck, he’ll pinch hit for Clement here in the bottom of the 9th with the Rangers leadin 2-0.” I stopped paying attention at that point. Didn’t want to ruin my good mood.
You know that song?
Flop, circa 1992 or so?
”....I took her to see Robert Mitchum in
Night of the Hunter
Shelley Winters has a vision of
Righteousness from up above
She trades her children for the love
Of a preacher with a soul decay
(chorus)
Could it be the son went down to stay
The virgin Mary sold herself today “
FLOP!
I loves me some Flop. Flop And The Fall of the Mopsqueezer always puts a smile on my face.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on May 8, 2008 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions
So many good songs
Rusty Willoughby is rad. Tell me Flop will reunite for the SubPop 20 year thing….
Man, I wish they would
and I wish that Kim Warnick’s health would allow the Fastbacks to do the same. If the Fastbacks and Flop would get back together for the Sub Pop show I would pretty much self destruct with joy.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on May 8, 2008 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm glad I got to see the Fastbacks when they were still a functioning band.
Kurt Bloch is my hero.
by Aaron Campeau on May 8, 2008 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
The Fastbacks are the reason that music was invented
I’ve seen the Fastbacks more times than I can count. They were always unbelievable. By the way, in case you’re interested, Kurt’s (newest) new band, Thee Sgt Major III, is playing at Jules Mae’s tomorrow night – I saw Sgt Major once, and apparently the new lineup’s still pretty good.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Night of the Hunter has inspired more great rock songs than any movie ever.
Okay, maybe that’s hyperbole. But that’s a great song, and half of the only good Murder City Devils album was inspired by Night of the Hunter.
And that movie gets better every time I see it. I still need to get my Harry Powell halloween costume together.
by Aaron Campeau on May 8, 2008 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
That is all
I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little
Don't care.
Stopped caring. Plan not to care again until next year.
...and now I'm here
On the bright side
That’s one less game to endure.
I was at that game.
1. It was extremely demoralizing. We looked like a high school team facing a pro team tonight.
2. We have basically our 1-4 hitters who I think can actually do anything, then what is basically a black hole 5-9.
3. Brandon Morrow takes so long to pitch he might as well bring a fucking picnic with him. It’s fucking ridiculous.
4. There’s no fucking way we’re contending for anything other than last place this year. Our offense is terrible.
5. With the way this team is put together, why would free agents want to come here? We’re ignored by the (national) press, our team travels more than any other team, we lose constantly and the weather sucks for half the season. I truly don’t see how we can get guys to want to come here other than throwing tons of money at them.
6. Safeco was fucking EMPTY. I think I’ve had more people over at my house to watch a game. I can’t blame people for not showing up. The stadium is cold, the team sucks, the stupid kid friendly atmosphere is oppressive and ‘refreshments’ are insanely expensive.
7. The ump looked like his strike zone was inconsistent. I was pretty close to the action (22nd row about even with the mound) but I couldn’t tell for sure.
8. Watching Clement and Betancourt eat called third strikes in what everyone knew was our only chance to score was mind destroyingly frustrating and depressing.
9. WFB as a pinch hitter? Why bother. Seriously, if you think that’s a good option, don’t pinch hit him, argue with the ump, get thrown out of the game, drive to a gun store and buy a high powered assault rifle, return to the stadium and kill everyone but Ichiro, Beltre, Bedard, Felix, Putz and Red.
10. Squinty’s tantrum with the umpire was pathetic.
Two observations about the game
1. Smegmalicious brushed on this as well, and I am NOT using this as an excuse for why we lost but holy shit was that home plate umpire terrible.
2. Why didn’t we pinch run Bloomie when Burke worked that lead off walk in the bottom of the 8th inning?
This team sucks
And Mac is just as bad. Ugh I hate our manager.
Jeff's back!
At least something went right this series
JeffS got arrested for the Anne Frank picture
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions
You gonna bail him out or what?
We could use more evil twins around here
The evil twin's still around
the good one just got locked up.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
So, there's you the evil twin
and the pedophile twin?
Angry Senators Fan
From the related videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79QHUtFqaTE&feature=related
I’m sure Jeff can sympathise. Or maybe this guy isn’t hardcore enough by Jeff’s standards?
This has been a most unfortunate season.
Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.
"I eagerly await the day when I can shit in the living room"
~Robert
How many people here
had legit playoff aspirations this year? We always thought the Angels would win it; we’re just finding out a bit sooner than we thought.
While that sucks, and I’m not downplaying how shitty they’ve looked, there are upsides to this as well. I mean, there must be, right? Probably?
I’m going to Felix night tonight, and I’m going to have a great time, just the same as if I hadn’t seen these past two [procedures].
Honestly
I thought we’d finish with about 85-88 wins and miss the playoffs. I’m now thinking that was insanely optimistic
I agree
But do you really think that hitting this poorly is predictable or sustainable? Eventually, someone will start hitting or (praying) the management will be smart enough to bring someone up who will. I think at this point we’re looking at 72-76 wins. This is the pace we seem to be on. Other than that, we have successful playoff caliber pitching. I hope it continues while our bats try to catch up.
According to Jeff
We’re on pace to score something like 687 runs, which is only four off from what was projected before the season.
you bring up a good point
im not going to lie. i have been a loyal fan of the mariners for a while, but I am just starting to learn about real baseball. Football is my game, baseball is my newborn sports love. so forgive my ignorance and feel free to point and laugh but remember i have much to learn.
Anyway, i dont think that the number of runs is really that telling. if you can score the runs, but your pitching is haveing an off night and you lose 23-22, you still lose. if you hold your opponent to 2 runs, but score none, you still lose. I think that while offense is a good measure of a team, for the mariners, it is all situational more than anything else. Look at how many 1 run games we have lost and the fact that we have never overcome a 2 run deficit this entire season.
Expected runs scored and runs allowed
provides a fairly good indicator as to where the team will finish up when the season is over. Unfortunately this is a very foreign idea to a lot of people, including our front office.
The thing is though
- one run games are basically luck and everyone goes about .500 in them at the end of the year. Same with situational hitting. It’s just luck, and the M’s have had bad luck so far. Of course, the offense sucks, but you’d have expected the team to win a few more of the one run games so far then they have.
- a run saved is certainly worth the same as a run scored, but the goodness of the rotation was never in doubt. It was always the offense that was the problem. What Brian is saying is that we projected the team to not hit at the start of the year, and they’re proving us (well, Jeff and Derek and Dave and Graham) right.
Basically, unless the offense shows drastic improvement, we’re not going to win. We’re going to have to hit better and get luckier, but we’re at that point in the season where it really has to happen now or it’s over.
a run saved is certainly worth the same as a run scored
I always thought it was worth slightly less than a run scored.
by JI on May 8, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Is it?
Or is my sarcasm meter not working this morning… :(
Well,
I think since you can’t win a game 0 to -1, that a runs saved has to worth just slightly less than a run scored.
by JI on May 8, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmmmm makes sense
someone might want to tell Bavasi this, though
since you can’t win a game 0 to -1
It's incredible
I didn’t even notice “runs” and “has to worth” until just now. You’ve conditioned us, like the Pavlov experiments
hmmmm
well hopefully we even out with the 1 run games. if im not mistaken, by about game 140 last year when we were just making the playoff push only to fall flat on our faces, we were doing really well in the 1 run column. maybe we have to pay the luk debt this season.
I still dont understand the expected runs thing that Brian is talking about. itll try to read up on it.
And yeah, im starting to get the feeling that all is lost if we dont start winning. Even though we’re in a weaker league, it will still be hard. Hopefully we can pull a Yankees or Phillies like they did last year… but not likely. The nice thing about football is that you can go on an 0-5 slide and still win the super bowl… the giants. anyway, i hope we get out of this real soon.
Maybe someone could point me in the direction of some good pointers on how to understand this game a little better.
Hmmm depends exactly what kind of stuff you're looking for
but there’s TONS of helpful links around this blogosphere. I’ll try and dig some up for you in a bit.
About the expected runs thing, using projection systems we can guesstimate the approximate amount of runs that a team will both score and allow in any given season. 750-775 is average, anything above 800 is solidly good, anything below 700 is awful. Also, there’s a stable relationship between run differential for a season and wins for that season (what we call the Pythagorean Expectation). When we projected this season’s M’s the value was about 683 runs, which is A. awful and B. seemed much too low. Turns out they may have been right, because this team can’t hit.
I'd start out with Moneyball
it’s a book that converted a lot of people (myself included) to statistical analysis within the game. Others here will have some more useful links, but Moneyball is a good primer.
Yeah, totally agree
read Moneyball – if you don’t agree with the central tenants about statistical analysis, it’s probably better to just stay on the “enjoy the team” side, but if you find you want to learn more about saber stuff, there’s just a truckload of useful stuff between here, USSM, fangraphs, The Hardball Times, etc.
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
thanks
wow, great support here. you guys have been really helpful and have given me plenty to start with. and you guys seem to know plenty, so thanks a lot.
Im a numbers guy, so I really do believe in them so i think that this is a great place to start.
I have always loved the Mariners. My mom started taking me to about 10 to 12 games a year when I was 8. I instantly fell in love with our great teams and players of the past other than just Griffey and the rest. I got to meet a lot of players, including Edgar, Griffey, etc. My favorite when I was younger was Joey Cora, he still is in my top 5 mariners, partly because when I met him, he was so nice. I was at an A’s-Mariners game and before the game, my mom took me to the 3rd base side of the dome and let me meet some of the mariners. I met Joey and he asked me who my favorite player was and I happened to say him. Then he pulled out a baseball and went over to some of the ‘93 A’s and asked them to sign it. It has McGuire, both of the Hendersons, Ruben Sierra, lol, and even Tony LaRussa. Nice guy!
Anyway, even if the mariners suck, i can at least say that they have had some pretty decent guys… A-Rod included. In my experience, hes a pretty nice guy. He used to go to a pub that my moms friend owned or managed or something.
by SeattleReign on May 8, 2008 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Try not to let our game thread emotion scare you
otherwise this is a great place.
I don't think we're going to have to worry about game thread emotion the rest of this season
“Huh? Willie pinch hits for Ichiro? Oh well, already happened like six times whatever”
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it'll be more remarkable when there IS gte at this point
unless meh is an emotion.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Oh, and if you ever have random questions, this is a great place to ask
there are people here who know a LOT more than BrianL or myself – you’re just getting stuck with us because it’s 10 AM and no one else is paying attention to the site right now.
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Holy crap we're terrible
Ask Graham, Matthew, or Jeff here. Head over to ussmariner.com and throw some questions at Dave and Derek. All five guys are great, great resources.
Graham admitting he wasn't right?
My universe has been shattered.
Insisting that I'm right when I'm clearly not would be dumb
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
And if anything in this world is true it is that
You are smart. Also very amusing when sloshed on gin.
I only proposed to one person on Tuesday night.
I’m so proud of myself
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
She said
“Congrats on finishing. You’ve been on the gin again?
xx”
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Quit calling me Jeff!
My name is Robby!
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on May 8, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Does propsed mean something different in the UK?
When I was your age and wasted I never proposed to women. My normal operating procedure was to try and talk women into 3-somes.
I honestly don't think I did it on purpose
My guess is that predictive text turned a typo into ‘marry’ and things went horribly awry from there, because I certainly didn’t MEAN to send that.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Whoops sorry.
Can’t quite remember who posted what, vicodin high.
No, but by the time the bats "catch up"
it’ll be too late. Playoff-caliber pitching is irrelevant if the team isn’t going to score runs.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on May 8, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Actaully considering who Bavasi's father is
and considering how his teams won ballgames, our roster construction does not surprise me.
by JI on May 8, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
It's truly remarkable how bad we've been given how good the starting pitching is
besides the random Batista/Washburn meltdowns, they’ve been very, very good. If we scored four runs every single game, we’d probably have quite a few more wins right now.
You know who else had us at 88 wins?
Graham. You go call him insane/optimistic. I’ll bask in the glow of my SLIGHTLY more pessimistic forecast looking more accurate to this point. You know, Graham needs to go through six kinds of mathematical gymnastics to arrive at projections that are really only hazy approximations of my far more accurate hunches.
Yeah, yeah, that Librocrat guy’s projections look almost spooky now, and I may have to pay up that $1.05 or whatever it was. But still, this principle is worth it.
In my defence I did say that any injuries to certain key players would kill our season
But I missed way high on offence so far, probably because I forgot to do collapse scenarios and just went for median projections on offence all ‘round. Whoops.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Your logic seemed fine to me
The offensive production to date has been flukishly poor. Again, maybe I/we are wrong, but I think some regression will help.
Equivalently worrying is that our prediction that the team defense would regress towards the mean has not happened. At all. I want to understand why; can a LF and a 1B make THAT much difference? Just how little range does Yuni have?
Remeber that we're still working on a bell curve
Yes, things are likely to regress but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for it not to, or to go in the wrong way. Just how things turn out sometimes.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
And I think it will regress over time the rest of the way. Doesn’t mean I’m not stunned at how this month+ played out.
Yeah, it's been pretty depressing
Especially the way it’s been happening. I know it’s sucked to actually watch the games but rolling out of bed praying for a win and checking the scores has been so painful since the first series.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I really thought we would make the playoffs
Honestly, I didn’t think the offense would be nearly this terrible. If you had told me before the season what we would get out of Richie and KA so far this season, and the results of the starters, I’d have told you we would be 19-15 WORST case.
I know the projections thought it was going to be bad, but I think the really frustrating thing is that it’s been horrible in an unexpected way. Yeah, Vidro isn’t good, and neither was Wilk, but I don’t think anyone anticipated that they would both spend a month hitting under .200 OPSing around .550-.600. Or especially that Kenji would simply forget how to hit.
I’m genuinely disappointed. I thought we were a 88-92 win team and potential playoff contender. I was wrong. So very wrong.
You know what really surprises me?
Those ZiPS projections Derek did that had Oakland beating the crap out of us in the standings being right so far. I thought for sure we’d have a clear path to at least a second place finish.
I thought we had about 84 wins in us
at least that would have been watchable.
by JI on May 8, 2008 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
That's what I thought too
but falling short of that…well, there are diminishing returns for every loss below, oh, 90 or something. If we won 84 and the Angels and A’s got off to this hot start and we were never within, oh, 6 games, would that somehow make everything better? It’d be more pleasant, I suppose, but I just can’t get that worked up at the ‘loss’ of a mediocre, not-quite-good-enough season. At least this shit brings with it the possibility of wholesale change.
I know, I know…. change /= improvement (at least not necessarily), but I’m staying positive. The booze helps with that, you know.
We're never going to get the change we want
until Lincoln/Armstrong retire or die.
Honestly I don’t hold that much contempt for Bavasi. Howie and Chuck are the ones that make me mad.
It's still not OK to make a horrible move
when you’re being pressured into making one. For example, we needed a LHSP, so Bavasi went out and traded Soriano for HoRam instead of waiting for something halfway decent to emerge.
Yeah, the higher ups are a huge problem too, but the way Bavasi jumps on the first deal to come his way isn’t helping either.
Bavasi is incompetent, yes
but Howie and Chuck harbor blatant contempt for the fanbase. At least Bavasi is trying (albeit very poorly) to give the fans what they want.
That's very true
and I completely agree that at least Bill is trying (even if he’s failed pretty miserably up to this point).
Eh, whatever, I’m not even going to finish this comment, because in the end, I basically agree with all the relevant points of your argument so I don’t see the need to finish typing.
It hurts that I'm rooting for a team
that hates the fans. Just reading through Armstrong’s comments yesterday filled me with a sense of hopelessness concerning this team.
Go Rays.
Honestly, I don't think they like or dislike the fans any more than any other pro sports enterprise
they’re just slightly more brazen in their disregard for the fanbase
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
At least try to make me think you care
that’s all I ask. Feign interest in me.
I DO care you
Otherwise why would I spend my Thursday morning talking to you on a freaking baseball website?
YOU’RE SMOTHERING ME
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
"I do care you?"
Who do I think I am, JI?
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I love how SBN tried to have automatic previews
and somehow LL’s typing got worse
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Me too
How long will ownership tolerate management like this? Attendance down, payroll up, wins down… I know the Japanese owners aren’t involved day-to-day, but you can make a damn good business case that your handpicked managers aren’t getting it done. I doubt this hasn’t occurred to them.
Just go tell the Japanese ownership
that Howie and Chuck are having a very public affair. That will end their tenure in a hurry.
PHO-TO-SHOP. PHO-TO-SHOP
PHO-TO-SHOP! PHO-TO-SHOP!
Here's a good source photo of Lincoln
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on May 8, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Lincoln: We've got one mighty good team, don't we?
Blowers: No question about it.
Lincoln: Shame we couldn’t get one of those ‘95 players here today.
Blowers: You have no idea who I am, do you?
by BrianL on May 8, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Alternately
Lincoln: Sure is a beautiful day here at the park, isn’t it Blowers?
Blowers: Please give me back my Prozak.
I for one picked us to finish 3rd behind Oakland and LAAAAAAAAAA
Our offense got worse during the offseason. Our bullpen got worse. Our defense was not improved and due to the advanced age of some of our fielders you could say it got worse. Only our starting pitching improved. Not a recipe for success.
Look at the top On-Base Average guys on our team. Three of the top 4 are not on the roster anymore and Ichiro isn’t even in the top 5 and Beltre is the only one over .350. That is pathetic.
So no, I am not surprised at all. You know what else, I am still going to go to the games and a have a blast doing it because going to baseball games is fun.
Here here!
I’ll be there tonight, and it’s still an honor to watch Felix pitch in M’s blue.
I didn't have much hope.
I’ve resisted the urge of saying “I told you so”, though. This looked like a .500 team. Actually, it still does- it’s just that instead of a .500 team that goes 88-74 because it’s lucky and gets a bunch of breaks, it’s a .500 team that goes 74-88 because it’s unlucky and gets a bunch of BAD breaks.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I still stick with my 78 win prediction.
They’ll get lucky near the end. This, of course, implies there is no fire sale. I don’t at all expect one, but that is the only way I’ll change my projection.
...and now I'm here
By the way
was Johjima available or not? I can’t fathom sending Willie up there if Johjima or Vidro was available to pinch hit.
If it weren't for Felix, I'd probably have burnt down like six orphanages by now.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
At the minimum.
After all nuns and orphans don’t have feelings anyway.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
This list is getting awfully long.
I’m going to need Felix’s help at this point, he’s the only man who can dominate so many things.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Felix doesn't burn things though
only incinerates them. You’re going to need a lot longer list before Felix will even consider helping you.
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 8, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the new site tag should be
“Nobody cares about the Mariners”
So
how bad does that Putz injury before the Baltimore series look now? If he’s healthy that series we’re at least 2 games better right now and not completely giving up hope…
The poster formerly known as Matt.
Also factor in Bedard missing a start vs. the Angels too.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't see that it matters.
Fundamentally, this is not a contending team. Minus Guillen, with Vidro finally being Mr. Regression to the Mean, and without any offense at C, you have an offense that’s anywhere from bad to horrific at 4 positions: RF, C, 1B, DH. You have a defense that’s terrible in LF and at 1B, and is fundamentally below average. The starting pitching is good at 1-2, but pretty mediocre at 3-4-5 (and made even worse by the bad defense), but the bullpen is weaker than last year.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions
"The starting pitching is good at 1-2, but pretty mediocre at 3-4-5 "
Uh
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
What?
I’d say Silva/Washburn/Batista are what they are: mediocre, not particularly distinguished stuffwise, dependent on their defense to make them look good. I suppose I could have added “overpaid”, but I wasn’t talking salary.
There is SOME benefit of being able to provide 180-200 IP of blah innings that will never get you in the Cy Young race- if you have a decent defense behind you, you can win a pennant. Heck, if you have a GREAT defense behind you, you’re Jarrod Washburn and the Mariners will overpay you.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
I should add
“if you have a decent defense behind you, you can win a pennant” at 3-4-5. In fact, that’s how most teams win pennants with “good pitching”: great 1-2 guys who actually have stuff, and the 3-4-5 guys are innings eaters who depend on defense.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I like to call this "The Diamondback Fallacy"
Just because the Diamondbacks did it doesn’t mean it’s repeatable.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
How does not having a good defense not improve 3--4-5?
And really, show me a team that has great pitching that’s not defense-dependent at 3-4-5.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
They're not mediocre for 3-4-5 starters
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
OK, so are they above average?
I could see the argument for that.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
I think overall they're a little above average for their rotation slots
Washburn brings them down a bit, though.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Washburn has had better performance than his peripherals for long enough...
... that I’m willing to go with him being another in the Jamie Moyer class of LHP who is generally going to do that.
Because his peripherals should have him out of the league- but somehow he stays.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Washburn outperformed tRA by 0.09 R/9 last year
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Over his career?
And if you assume he’s the 5, I’d guess he’s at least “mediocre”.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I have no idea about over his career
I can’t run the algorithm earlier than 04 anyway.
And no, he’s about average for a #5 once you regress him.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2008 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Isn't average kind of the same as "mediocre"?
But yeah, of the 3-4-5, I’d put Washburn at the back.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
If we have a vaguely competent defense behind them, Silva and Batista might look pretty good.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Except for Richie, Loafie, YuBet, Raul, Wlad and Kenji, our defense isn't that bad
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Loafie, Kenji, Wlad and YuBet are OK.
The other guys, though, yeeeauuugh.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Yuni is not good on defense
The sooner M’s fans grasp that the better. We were sold a bill of goods on that guy.
He's still "good".
He’s just not AMAZING like we thought he was when he came up. Stupid fattening american food.
I like midgets more than I should.
I'm not sure if he's even good or average at this point.
With Belte having so many errors, I think Ichiro is the only guy who is above average in the field.
Isn't Beltre near the top
or the leader in plays made out of zone?
Belte probably scores well and I really like him,
but he has 7 errors already. I checked THT and he is at the top of the OOZ plays, but is in the bottom 1/2 of Rzr.
Sure, but 7 in 36 games is pretty crappy.
The stats I checked aren’t perfect either, but to me they show that Beltre hasn’t been playing his usual King Awesome style defense.
Maybe his thumb problem has something to do with this?
I believe he has a torn ligament.
I like midgets more than I should.
And even that's debatable
but it seems like we have a lot of guys who are right around average, with Richie and Raul being the only two blights
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd have to check the numbers,
but I think he’s at least average.
I like midgets more than I should.
Beltre's fine
just because he may not have been awesome in April doesn’t mean he’s not awesome. Defense fluctuates just the same as anything else. Maybe more.
Yuni is not good.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Is he "not good"
or “not as good as we thought he would be”? Would WFB be an improvement?
I like midgets more than I should.
I believe Yuni may very well be a below-average defensive SS at this point
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
...huh.
So how much value does Yuni have at this point?
In terms of runs? Very little.
But if the Mariners were so inclined (which they’re not), they could use him as a pretty appealing trade chip.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Doubt it
Triunfel doesn’t have a prayer of sticking.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Triunfel is playing 2nd mostly.
I doubt he’ll be a SS.
I like midgets more than I should.
I use defensive metrics to a point
But I use my eyes more than anything when I comment on a players defense. And by eyes I do not mean what I see on TV. I have a very good gauge on what is good or bad defense and Yuni is leaning towards bad. It made me physically ill when I would hear Yuni compared to Omar. Yuni was never even close.
Great recap, Jeff!
Loved the W/E graph, bullet points, and pictures. You are so right on so many levels. I absolutely loved the part where you explained ….. and ….. . The third picture down was hilarious! Definitely an endless amount of photoshop possibilities.
Keep up the great work and I expect many more write-ups like this to come!
I think you can look forward to a lot more recaps like this one.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
At least there's still my second favorite hobby...
rooting against the Yankees.
Although with AHole out of the lineup it’s a little less satisfying.
That and I get more sleep. So that’s always good.
*Is still baffled by why people hate A-Rod eight years later but don't hate Griffey*
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I have a lot more reasons than just...
his stay in Seattle, some rational, some not.
I should add...
that aside from the move, Griffey never really did anything else to piss me off, while AHole has done plenty.
Yeah, at least Griffey gave us options when he wanted to be traded and never was a crybaby about anything.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Lots of ballplayers are whiners.
And the “options” you speak of are the reason why people didn’t like the move. So your refutation has absolutely no valid points.
I’ll have you know that there is more to a baseball player than how he handles his baseball dealings, and how he works with the press and people in baseball?
Did you know that AHole is a real estate developer in NYC? Did you hear how he unceremoniously dumped about 30 mid-rent people on the street (a couple of my friends included) when he wanted to build his Bronx loft? I didn’t think so.
Like I said before, there are a lot of reasons that I don’t like him. The less rational ones have to do with baseball. The more rational ones do with life and how you live it.
My part of this conversation is over. I suggest that maybe you shouldn’t assume that someone’s dislike has to do with the one issue that you don’t care much about, and like to give other people shit about.
The fact that you call him "A-Hole"
makes your argument seem unbiased.
by JI on May 8, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions
I thinksome people have a right to be biased.
Maybe those people, like the ones he evicted (and to a lesser extent the ones that know them), get to have a little bias.
Please enlighten us
Did you hear how he unceremoniously dumped about 30 mid-rent people on the street (a couple of my friends included) when he wanted to build his Bronx loft?
No, this sounds like an interesting story – the main tenet of which (Alex Rodriguez lives in the Bronx?) I struggle to understand. Any sources/links?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I haven't been able to find any in print.
When it happened, the local CBS station came out and interviewed my friends at their (my friends) request, but I don’t think it ever went got to the papers.
And yes, he has (or at least had, as of 3 years ago) a loft not far from the stadium, where he stays(ed) on home stretches. If you need me to find it online somewhere, I’m sure that’s doable.
I was sarcastically calling you a retard, since being mean is not okay due to TOS
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
It's cool
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Because A-Rod is a robotic piece of crap.
I like midgets more than I should.
...who was offered a 5 year deal with two team options, with our team president on vacation during the offer.
This after A-Rod asked for 10 years, 200 million. We couldn’t even guarantee half of it after we’d offered Griffey 8/138 before we traded him.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't blame A-Rod for taking the money
I blame him for being Eddie Haskell. Griffey had his faults, but he wasn’t particularly transparently fake.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
How was A-Rod transparently fake?
He said he’d give us a chance to sign him. In the offseason, he told us he wanted 10 years and $200 million. The Mariners countered with 5/$100, but with only three years guaranteed and two team option years. The Mariners offered Griffey 8/$138 the year before, before we traded him. Not only that, but Chuck Armstrong wasn’t even in the area, he was away on vacation not caring about this. Hicks gave him his ten years and more money than he asked for. But I bet you if the M’s offered 8/$180 he’d have still been a Mariner.
You have to understand, when you say you want 10/$200 and the team you’ve already given a discount to with an extension to buy out a year of free agency tells you they’re offering 3/$60 with two team options to make it 5/$100 it is a slap in the face and shows they’re not really serious about signing you. I blame the M’s for this more than A-Rod. The Mariners saying they made every attempt to resign him is bullshit PR. You don’t buy into the other bullshit PR the M’s give you, why buy into this story?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Again: I don't blame A-Rod for taking the money.
I think it was ALWAYS about the money, protestations aside. And you seem to think I am cutting the front office slack. I’m not. It was about the money for them, too.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
And if any player deserved the money, it was him.
This is why I stand up and cheer A-Rod every time the Yankees come to town.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think I could stand up and cheer for him
but I harbor no ill will towards him either
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
There's a Cory Lidle joke in there somewhere, I'm sure of it
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Because A-Rod gets far too much shit in this town.
I hate the Yankees but he doesn’t deserve to be booed here anymore so I have to do something to offset it. It’s been eight years since the Mariners low-balled him out of town. We shouldn’t boo anymore.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
3/60 with two team options that could make it worth 5/100
He told us he wanted 10/200, and the year before the M’s had offered 8/138 to Junior so A-Rod rightfully saw it as an insult. Not to mention Armstrong wasn’t even in the city at the time of such an important event.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Jesus H. Christ
we have no right to boo that man.
Some people will get mad saying A-Rod didn't come back to the M's with a counter offer
But given that we’d already made Griffey such a big offer a year before and started so low with him, I can see why he’d just say “Ok, they’re not serious about signing me” and walked away from the negotiating table.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed.
but if talking about ARod forestalls more BRING BACK GRIFFEYness, I’m all for it.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I'm just really annoyed that people have such a double standard for A-Rod and Griffey.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
I think the thing here is that a lot of us are the age
where we grew up with Griffey patrolling center field. Alex was never here long enough to develop the city wide love that we have for Griffey, and honestly, a lot of us are right at that age where it was like Alex was abandoning us.
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
For the record,
I think that I wouldn’t mind Griffey coming back, if we got rid of Raul. If you think about it, they’re basically the same player. LH (horribly defending) corner outfielders with bad same-handed hitting.
I think having both of them on our team would simply spell death on days we face LHers, because you know neither one would be platooned (faces of the franchise!!!). So my view is one or the other, and with a slight preference towards Raul, who is younger by a couple years.
Just like them both.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry. Griffey for DH or 1B in 2009.
I am not interested in trading for him this year, since 2008 is a giant botched [COATHANGER], but he’d be a perfect fit for DH or 1B in 2009 on a pone or two year deal. (He goes to 1B if the team decides Mr. Face of the Franchise HAS to come back.)
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions
We're going to trade Triunfel for him
and put Griffey back in CF where he belongs!
The sad thing is there is a possibility this could happen.
Nope.
Please note that Bavasi did NOT trade King Felix. He’s pretty bad at trades, but there’s “bad” and then there’s “batshit insane”.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Hot enough that he might experience some hair loss
OH MY GOD WE’RE TOO LATE
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
Doesn't matter.
Bavasi has pretty much demonstrated to me that despite his faults, he has integrity, and NOBODY trades 18 year olds who are that good without realizing they are damaging their organization.
To put it another way: I would bet the M’s could have made the Bedard swap with Truinfel instead of Jones, and Baltimore would have done the same deal. It would have also left us with a RF and in better shape for 2008-2009 (since Truinfel probably isn’t going to make an impact before 2010). Bavasi didn’t do it that way because he’s not dumb.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It's not Bavasi I'm worried about.
How much pressure does Lincoln and Armstrong put on him? If they view KGJ as a way to put butts in the seats, something stupid could very well happen.
KGJ is going to be available as a FA come next year
I don’t see Cincy picking up his option. And even if they DID, no way does a 38 year old OF/DH with an option command the best prospect in your system in a deal. Yes, Vidro got Snelling, but he was at best a risky prospect given his injury history.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
So after going through the Inside The Book archives
I’m beginning to buy into MGL’s idea that, when used as an outfielder, Griffey is the worst player in baseball.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions
...that is a starter?
Not even David Eckstein?
No field / no hit SS has to be worse.
by JI on May 8, 2008 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
How many no-field/no-hit SS are there with everyday jobs in baseball?
Besides, you get a positional boost for playing middle infield.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
How many no-hit, no-field players are there period?
Wouldn’t you do more damage by sucking royally at SS?
Plus, since Eckstein has to play further back on the turf, wouldn’t his defense reach new levels of combustibility? Dud can barely get the ball to first as it is.
by JI on May 8, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
ok KGJ has an ops of .695 whereas Big Sexy has an ops of .732
there will be better free agents next year.
No 1B.
I don’t want his legs trying to learn a new position at this point in his career.
I like midgets more than I should.
It's probably inevitable that Griffey plays in Seattle again.
I just hope the damage is mitigated by signing him to a cheap 1 year contract in the off-season with the stipulation that he’s a DH only.
Bingo.
I’d be fine with that- goodbye tour and so on. And this team needs left handed hitting like the Mariner front office needs a clue.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I have a dream that someday we'll force a Game 7 of the ALCS
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
My dream is bigger than that
And it mostly focuses on me not being totally gray haired when it happens.
I dream realistically
my real dream is that we’ll score a run
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Why don't you dream for the Seahawks winning the next superbowl?
That’s far more likely.
If they can get a smart QB in the next draft or two
can you imagine how big our window of opportunity becomes?
Because I dream by how badly I want the title
and in order, I want to win
1. BCS National Championship
2. World Series
...
3. Super Bowl
4. Final Four
They've got Slick Rick, though!
So the sequence should end up being:
2009: BCS title
2011: Rick fired after program is ruined by cheating and bad recruiting
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
There will be no BCS title
The Mariners have a better chance of winning the World Series than UCLA does of winning a national title in football
Amazingly, this meme, and the Zombie Shakesphere meme come from the same episode.
by JI on May 8, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
But it comes with your choice of topping!
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 8, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought you said realistically
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, you're right...
I guess I just hope we advance a runner to scoring position tonight. That could happen, right?
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
and he was willing to play dirty to get them to the series
Griffey wasn’t
by JI on May 8, 2008 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
We weren't gonna beat the Indians and we certinaly weren't beating the Braves
We survive Game 6 and I like our chances in game 7 and against the Mets that year.
Look, I love Griffey as much as anyone, he was my hero growing up...but the dude had a fragile ego
And still hates taking responsibility. Not to say I don’t believe him, but I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t embellish any story like this.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I would like to have Griffey back
then I’d actually have a reason to watch the team on Non-Felix Days
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
except that he sucks
so It’d be cool for a week, then it’d get really old.
by JI on May 8, 2008 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Which would be a week longer than I'd care otherwise
and no, I’m not advocating trading for Junior for baseball reasons. Sheer sentiment (if that wasn’t already clear)
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd like the sentimental reunion myself, too.
I LOVE Griffey, even if he’s a friggin’ wimp and probably wouldn’t help the team that much.
As much as I want Griffey back, and love him, I hate Barry Bonds and would even still rather have him
.
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on May 8, 2008 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I want him back in the winter
when the M’s wouldn’t have to give up anything to get him. Trading for him now would be stupid. Which means the M’s will do it next week.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
unless we trade someone we won't miss
which is what a 38 year old struggling platoon outfielder should demand
by JI on May 8, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
you've seen how the Mariners operate, right?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
//sarcasm...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on May 8, 2008 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok, I trust Jay.
Maybe the basic facts are true, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Griffey exaggerated a bit regardless of what Jay says.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 8, 2008 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions
So is it officially okay to be a Rays fan?
3.5 back of the Red Sox!
Out of curiosity
What’s Beltre’s BABIP since last Monday? It seems like he’s been ridiculously unlucky at the plate.
Which Monday?
.000 since this Monday. .130 since the Monday before (despite a 30% LD).
Yes, very unlucky.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 8, 2008 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I feel like I'm having a seizure at work
For some reason the lighting to the right of my cube is ridiculously low and the lighting over my cube is really bright. My eyes and head are killing me.
L&I !! L&I !!!
I like midgets more than I should.
You rang?
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum
by PositivePaul on May 8, 2008 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Crap, don't tell me you work with my brother...
I like midgets more than I should.
L&I in Everett mostly.
I like midgets more than I should.
You mean you were diagnosed with something called a brain cloud and didn't ask for a second opinion?
I've been waiting for a pair of hot young blonde twins
and a similar looking hot young brunette to guide me on the right path.
Chase is an annoying little twit.
Foreman is superior.
Dude, Jennifer Morrison is fucking HOT.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 8, 2008 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Signs we hate ourselves and the Mariners at this point
310 comments and zero recs in this thread
by seattlebruin on May 8, 2008 12:09 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Only if it's Anne Frank's favorite tree.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
The three?
WE HAVE TO BURN THREE TREES NOW?
Burning one isn't enough
it’s more effective when you burn three.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on May 8, 2008 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I dunno, he's pretty violent and pessimistic lately.
I think it’s hormonal.
I like midgets more than I should.
Really?
I thought it was one of these.
by eponymous_coward on May 8, 2008 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Didn't click on the link
but you can go to hell anyways.
It’s better than being Eli Roll’d.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!
Also, I'm always down for some online Grand Theft Auto IV or Rock Band. Gamertag: Phildopip
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 8, 2008 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
I assumed you fucked up royally and I wanted to see how it would take until someone pointed it out.
by JI on May 8, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
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