Sexson draft pick compensation

by don gato on May 5, 2008 6:05 AM PDT Comment 31 comments

If the M's continue their swoon and Sexson continues on his pace .215/.309/.430, 32 hrs, and 91 rbis, would Sexson make it into the type A category, thus giving the M's a 1st round pick.

From BP

It's not just free agents who are ranked. The system aims to rank the top players in the game overall, considering over 800 players total in this latest iteration. The list includes rookies and other players who are not yet eligible for arbitration, much less free agency. In theory, you could have a situation where none of the Type A or B players are actually eligible for free agency.

Starting and relief pitchers are considered separately from each other. Position players are divided into three categories: catchers, infielders (shortstops, second, and third basemen), and outfield/first base/designated hitter.

The rankings are based on the past two years' data. Published reports and regression analysis have indicated that the ranking system is a 100-point scale, and is done by averaging the player's ranks within their categories in certain statistical categories, such as plate appearances, home runs, and RBI for hitters, and innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA for pitchers. It seems that each category is measured based upon a slightly different set of statistics from the others.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6911

If the above (especially the first bullet) is true I'd imagine it would be unlikely that Sexson would fall into category A. While Sexson usually is a slow starter, if his rating includes only last year (third bullet) he may have some trouble making it into the top 20%.

I don't know what kind of offers the M's would get for Sexson, but I was curious about any opinions regarding draft pick compensation vs. trade value. Additionally, where does Sexson rank among free agent 1b? He is obviously nowhere near Texiera level. But outside of Thome how does he stack up with everyone else? Could a team be enticed by his home/road split?

from Cot's

Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson SEA
Mark Teixeira ATL
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

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Comments

The Giants will sign him.

Felix Hernandez may be The King, but Justin Upton is a GOD.

"I eagerly await the day when I can shit in the living room"
~Robert

by Goose on May 5, 2008 7:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

To get compensation, we'd have to offer him arbitration.

I don’t want to offer him arbitration.

by JeffS on May 5, 2008 7:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I did not know this. Thank you.

Would the M’s actually offer arbitration? Bavasi seems to not like doing this. Additionally Sexson isn’t all that much of a fan favorite right now.

by don gato on May 5, 2008 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

assuming Bavasi still is around

by don gato on May 5, 2008 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aside from Guillen

Bavasi has offered arb to all the players he should have.

by Matthew on May 5, 2008 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jose Guillen?

by marc w on May 5, 2008 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

by Teej on May 5, 2008 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he'd accept to be honest...I'm sure he hates it here

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on May 5, 2008 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

14m > NRI invite

by JI on May 5, 2008 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So offer him arb

and then cut his ass for 1/6th of the arb award if he accepts it. You still get the draft pick.

by eponymous_coward on May 5, 2008 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is the draft pick worth $2m?

by JI on May 5, 2008 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We didn't offer arb to Guillen..lost that pick

Then wasted $3m on Wilk, right? I don’t care about $2m with this team

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on May 5, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

How do you get a draft pick is a player accepts arbitration?

by Matthew on May 5, 2008 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering the same thing.

You still get a shot at the pick if you offer arb, and if Richie accepts you can release him and avoid 83% of the contract.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 5, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well he could make it to a type-B as well, giving us a sandwich pick

which is better than nothing should the M’s offer arbitration. The massive problem, of course is that they would basically have to utterly lowball the player in arbitration to try and get him to decline and then reap the benefits, and if nothing else, Bavasi has proved himself to be a very players-first GM.

by seattlebruin on May 5, 2008 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

lowballing in arb is not a good idea

In binding arbitration, the team submits an amount and the player submits an amount. After arguments are made, the arbitrator must pick one of the two figures, and nothing in between. So if a player’s true value is $8 million a year, and the team lowballs with $1.5mil and the player comes in with $13mil, the arbitrator would probably end up picking the $13mil figure.

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on May 5, 2008 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that was the other thing I probably should have mentioned

but my main point was that even offering arbitration to Sexson at this point for the draft pick would be a sketchy proposition at best. At least with Guillen, if he had come back for ~$10M, it wouldn’t have been terrible at all (even though he’s not hitting a lick this season)

by seattlebruin on May 5, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But with Guillen we were prety sure he wouldn't accept arbitration.

There were better offers out there (and he got one).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 5, 2008 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is all the more reason we should've offered

Why on earth would he have said yes?

by marc w on May 5, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

It took me four tries to spell exactly right.

Excalty
Excatly
Ecxatly
Exactly

Aside from that first one, those weren’t typos. I was legitimately trying to put the C in the first syllable.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 5, 2008 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A's question

How the hell did the A’s get away with all those picks over the years? Did the players just hate Oakland so much they refused to accept arb? Or were they always lucky and got better offers elsewhere?

by seattlebruin on May 5, 2008 12:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Most players just don't take arbitration

by Graham on May 5, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Billy Beane is notoriously cheap

by OlSalty on May 5, 2008 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I figured that part

but wasn’t he the least bit worried that someone would say “oh fuck it, as long as I’m getting paid x, its fine” and accept?

by seattlebruin on May 5, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because Beane tended to sign undervalued players, their salaries were depressed.

Arbitration would have continued to depress their salaries, so the players decided to move to the open market in order to more fully apply their leverage.

Billy Beane is really good at his job.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 5, 2008 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why the hell does Oakland get to have Beane, and we have Bavasi?

Why does it have to be so unfair?

by vkut79 on May 5, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow I sound ligitimately pissed there

not really what I intended

by vkut79 on May 5, 2008 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

silly to offer arbitration to Sexson.

There is a maximum amount a players salary can be cut in arbitration – 20%. So if you offer arbitration to Sexson, the minimum amount he would be guaranteed is 80% of this year’s salary, or $11.2 million. He’s not going to get anything near that on the FA market, so he almost certainly will accept arbitration.

Then, if you try to cut him solely to avoid paying his arbitration salary, the union will likely file a grievance and they will have a good case. So if Freddy ate the Mariners cookies when he won arbitration, Sexson would be consuming the cake and ice cream as well.

I also have a suspicion that for players with six or more years of service, arbitration awards are guaranteed. If that’s the case, offering Sexson is pretty much the same as using up $11.8 million of payroll space for next year.

by Steve Nelson on May 5, 2008 5:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs