Baker's Blog: To Blow up or Not to Blow Up...
That is the question. He discusses whether we should blow up the team or just add big bats at the ASB to fix everything. Here is what I had to say to him.
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In a Recent Billy Beane Interview he said you either think the current team you have can contend or you blow the whole thing up. Our Team is NOT a few good bats away from contention. So in my opinion it is time to start from scratch. We shouldn't have to of course, the Bedard trade should have never gone down. Any fan with a pea sized brain could have seen the the Seattle Mariners allowed more runs than they scored last year. Thus they overachieved massively and were not a 88 win team. But the blundering front office couldn't get past the notion of 88 wins + Bedard = Playoffs. Never mind Pythagoreans says we were actually a 72 win team. Never mind Raul's horrid outfield defense. Nevermind Vidro being absolutely done as a major league hitter. Nevermind Sexon's depleting bat speed.
The answer to this team should have been "Stay the Course". But now that we are "surprisingly" a loosing team ( I say it like that because any Saber Head in the world could have told you the season was going to be like this) it is more than time to rebuild that farm.
I don't suggest letting Bavasi even touch the job either. Once the draft is over, he need to be out of a job. Howard Lincoln and Check Armstrong also need to go. They have no buisness running this team, and have corrupted this organization within for years.
Hire Antonelli of the Indians organization to be the GM. Thats right, hire a GM that knows what the word "sabermetrics" means and knows how to evaluate talent .
Draft a Cooper, Homser or Alonso in the 2008 draft. We have no first basemen in the system. LaHair, doesn't count.
Ask Beltre if he is willing to sign a extension. If not, deal him. No sense letting him walk when you could get a very nice haul for him in the trade market.
Ichiro and Felix are obvious mainstays.
Deal Bedard at the ASB to a pitcher hungry playoff contender and HOPE you get what you gave away for him. Thats a big hope...
Part ways with Vidro, Sexson, Burke, Washburn, Rhodes, Batista, Cairo and Bloomquist.
Deal Putz. As said, he was at the top of his game last year. Get something for him while you can.
Sign Inoa. If nothing more than you humiliate the Yankees
Deal Lopez and Yuni. Or Don't deal them. They are both very impatient at the plate and play horrible defense. "Oh, but Yuni is one of the best at SS"...No he isn't, too many mental errors and bad throws, he is not as good as advertised. On the other hand both are young and cheap and good stop gaps while you wait for your prospects to be ready for the MLB.
Keep Silva simply as a innings eater.
Keep Lowe and Green
Deal Ibanez, he still has enough trade value to get us an impact piece. Although it seems we are the only team in the AL who doesn't realize how bad his defense is. So deal him to a team that needs a DH.
Tell Johjima he is moving to DH, and Clement is catching. Let Joh go at the end of his contract or If Johjima can get us some good stuff, deal him.
For gods sake let Morrow start!
So now we have a young core and some left over guys to help.
-->Core
* Ichiro
* Felix
* Morrow
* Clement
* Balentien
--> Spare Sparts
* Rowland-Smith
* Morse
* Reed
* Silva
* Green
* Lowe
* Lopez
* Betancourt
You now have players to build your team around along with plenty of "stop gaps". You also have some talent already in the minors that could become impact players (plus what you get in trades).
Our 2008 Top Draft Pick
Adam Moore
Michael Saunders
Carlos Triunfel
Phillippe Aumont
Juan Ramirez
Greg Halman
Along with...
Ryan Feierabend
Alex Liddi
Austin Bibens-Dirkx
Matt Mangini
Add onto all of this all the high draft picks you'll get throughout the rebuild process and you should have a championship team around 2012-2015.
Now you have the proper solution to fixing this team. None of this should have had to happen, but now that we are here, its time we right the ship.
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I was subtly bashing Baker cause he was one of the idiots who saw, 88 wins + Bedard = Playoffs.
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Holy rosterbation batman!
Even the “Saber Heads” didn’t think we’d be this atrocious.
That being said, I feel the answer to our issues lies somewhere inbetween “rebuild” and “stay the course.”
I agree with your sentiment that Bavasi isn’t all that great of a deal maker, but let’s face facts here, unless Armstrong does a complete 180 we’re stuck with him through the end of the season, and I don’t want him to “reload” our team. So you make the obvious deals that can’t really wait…deal Ibanez for something, dump Washburn or Batista on someone if you can…does Rhodes have any value? Anyone who doesn’t have any value to this club beyond this season but may be a useful piece to someone actually sniffing the play-offs should go (obviously we wont be able to trade most of our dead weight, I only named those with a realistic shot of being moved).
Other then that, Bavasi should make every attempt to re-sign Felix, Beltre, and Bedard, in that order. If he does that AND somehow gets value through trade out of the aforementioned pieces, then we should give him a tip of the cap when he drives off into the sunset at season’s end.
Someone say something witty.
Did you read the blog on USSM
about how after 29 your fastball goes to hell. Bedard needs to be dealt.
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions
No I did not.
But I did read a nice tidbit on here provided by our host that stated Bedard lived off of his curve last year…if he can find that again, we’re in very good shape.
Of course, I’m reading selectively because he also said that the curve has dissapeared completely and there are no signs of it’s impending return. So that’s unfortunate. Still, if Ah hold on while I go read that post ok I’m back that was slightly disturbing…
...I suppose there are two reasons I’d wish to keep Bedard. A. I desperately want to see value out of his acquisition (not really a good reason to keep someone) and B. I sincerely believe what we get in return wont be nearly as close to what we paid for him.
Bavasi wont trade him, and Bavasi gets to keep his job through the rest of the season. I would like to believe that Bedard can maintain good levels of production (good, not great) throughout a 3 year extension (while staying healthly!), but I haven’t taken a look at the numbers and frankly I don’t want to in fear of what I’ll find. There’s only so much optimism left, you see…
Someone say something witty.
I can agree only on
I don’t want to trade him either if your not going to get back what we paid for him. But If its close I’ll take it. Bedard can still get us a good haul and his pitching days are going to be up soon. He’s a injury prone, power pitcher and nearly 30…not the best combo you see :S
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Or, more importantly
REALISE THAT THAT STUDY IS NOT CONCLUSIVE.
by Graham MacAree on May 30, 2008 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
Its true. I still don’t think we should keep him though. His curveball hasn’t been there this year. He’s not going to be any use to use while we are rebuilding, or once we are contending, so why keep him when you can get several young studs to help you out for the long run?
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
He's made 9 starts and he's been hurt for most of them.
You are forming opinions on horribly limited data
If we're out of contention next July and Bedard clearly doesn't want to sign an extension, I trade him.
Anything before that is seriously jumping the gun.
There's nothing particularly wrong with Silva
it’s just that keeping him @ $12M per is retarded. Perhaps if it was like 4/28, but whatever.
by seattlebruin on May 30, 2008 3:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Why?
Silva is only there too eat up innings and keep the young arms fresh.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with most of what's been said
I think what rubs some of Detectovision or Baker’s blog people the wrong way is the absolutes of your theories.
Vidro is not “done” as a major league hitter. If he could play any defensive position at all, he’d be usefull, but he can’t. He is not an above average DH, and last year, he was extremely lucky with his BABIP. He is still a usefull pinch hitter, since if you need a single or a walk, he still provides good chances of those (also provides good chance of GIDP too as well). This year he has just been a bit unlucky and a bit too power-happy, not a good thing from a short fat guy with no power.
As bad as Raul’s defense is, it’s about the same as Manny’s, definitely better than Jack Cust’s (or Jeremy Giambi for the matter), so even smart GM’s can have problems evaluating defensive talent (or something to that effect).
I definitely agree about getting Morrow some starting experience NOW! I don’t understand McLaren’s logic, he’s been dynamite as of late, so we keep him there? If he had sucked, would we have kept him in a relief role as well, since if he can’t be a good relief pitcher he can’t be a good starter?
Johjima as a DH isnt’ very good either. 290/310/400 as the upside of a DH?
I agree, definitely trade Putz. If GM’s overvalue closers every year why not just trade your closer every few years. We could have got a LOT more in return if we had traded putz put in soriano, got him 30 saves, traded him, got sherrill 30 saves, traded him. Look what a washed up Gagne got, fairly good return for a sucky relief pitcher.
I’m not sure if Richie is done either. Yes we need to get rid of him, but After that Angels series, I don’t know how someone can look so locked in and be “done”. Sure it could be small sample size, but he didn’t look like he was “getting lucky”, he looked like he knew what he was doing. I think he just needs to be on another team.
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
That funny?
I didn’t think it was funny at all. I just didn’t get any of it. i liked the ripping off of the angel wings though.
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
If you were raised Catholic
there were a lot of things to chuckle at. I thought it was a pretty good movie, not amazing or anything.
the other angels fan
I'm not sure I want to know what that one is.
Just stick to the Dirty Sanchez.
I like midgets more than I should.
It wasn't great, no
but it still beats anything else that Kevin Smith has ever done.
The artist formerly known as Katal
I prefer Mallrats.
Almost entirely for sentimental reasons.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed
Objectively speaking, I’d say that Dogma is better. But I have a ton of sentimentality for Mallrats. Even the other night at Slugger’s I found myself lightly singing the Weezer song “Suzanne” with a friend of mine.
The artist formerly known as Katal
Hey, I remember when Weezer was good!
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Pinkerton is one of the best albums of the 1990s.
This is indisputable.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Their new stuff has nothing on their old stuff
Their new single sounds just liked another processed “Beverly Hills”
Rivers Cuomo is a sellout douchbag.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 31, 2008 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions
Nah, he's just a garden variety douchebag
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
I dunno', their new stuff is completely devoid of artistic merit.
It’s hard for me to imagine Rivers Cuomo just completely losing his ability to write a decent pop song over night.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 31, 2008 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
If you guys want to deny the awesomeness that is "Pink Triangle" be my guest.
Your loss. Losers.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
New Weezer isn't.
It probably seems worse to me because I love their early stuff so much, though.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions
As bad as Raul’s defense is, it’s about the same as Manny’s, definitely better than Jack Cust’s (or Jeremy Giambi for the matter), so even smart GM’s can have problems evaluating defensive talent (or something to that effect).
If pretty sure Beane and TheoElDio have figured out those guys suck.
by JI on May 30, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I know, thats why I put the () in, since I couldn't explain how
two of the smartest gms would justify this, except for the fact that Oakland has a glut of OFs/1B/DH, and same for boston, and obviously their DH is a pretty permanent mainstay
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
huh?
having a glut of people that can play the same position would imply you are more able to replace bad defense because you have more options at that position.
I meant it as, they have Daric Barton and Frank Thomas
So its hard for Cust to play DH/1b, and They have several OFers so its not as though he has to play OF often.
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com
Oakland and Boston have decent/good players at DH/1B
We do not. Therefore having a horrible glove in LF reflects worse on us than it does on them.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 30, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Honest question..
I was always kind of under the impression that our pythag record last year was skewed in large part to Ho and Weav getting absolutely killed in a few starts (like a couple 16-3 type games?)? I admittedly don’t really know much on the topic, but was that more of a myth?
This is a dangerous question
I’m not sure how to answer it acceptably, so I’ll just point out that the real myth here is that pythagorean record could/should be used to predict future performance.
by Graham MacAree on May 30, 2008 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I thought the synopsis was that
Pythag record reflects what you actually did (in runs scored vs. runs allowed) instead of what you “should” have done. It’s your raw ability filtered through luck, injuries, happenstance, etc.
In that sense the data are dirty. If you want to predict future performance, you’re better off going back to estimates of what each player “should” contribute, rather than expecting the same pythag results next year (making adjustments for roster changes.)
Therefore 88 wins + Bedard does not equal playoffs.
The cake is a lie.
Had we stopped being best friends since the last time we were best friends again?
by Graham MacAree on May 30, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, I can never keep track
You’re so fickle.
And Robert is always trying to insinuate himself as your “true” best friend.
You have one month to catch me in the UK before I graduate and move to Seattle
by Graham MacAree on May 30, 2008 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I'll have to buy you a welcome back present
Do you prefer Bombay Sapphire, Beefeater, Tanqueray, Gordon’s… um… I can’t think of any other kinds of gin.
Don't get an English one; he can get those there
Rogue, Dry Fly, Edgefield, Crater Lake
I know local gin
you probably know some local gins over there that I’ve never heard of.
Not really
You have to remember that I’m a student and can barely justify the amount I spend on cheap gin as is.
by Graham MacAree on May 30, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions
A soliloquy from Zombie Shakespeare
To blow up the team or not, that is the question
Whether tis nobler in the mind to lose
The ballgames to Angels Rangers and A’s
Or to take arms against the sea of old age
and with trades and DFAs end it, to suck
no more; and put it to sleep, to say we end
the losing and the thousand GIDPs and suck pitches
Now Hatteberg? That geezer come hither too?
Tis an old fart that man should never wish.
I’d rather to sleep, perchance to dream
of rotations of Strasberg, Felix and Juan Ramirez
Aye, there’s the rub of so much losing
For in those losing streaks, these dreams may come
What outs we made and runs we surrendered
we can give pause. There’s the redemption
that makes rebuilding work for Cleveland:
Your Yankees and Red Sox become old
and our stars of the future are young
And as we shed Bad Leftfielders of London and Magic Hotdog Power
We give rise to the unhittable Felix and Strasberg
The mighty Triunfel and Halman, Hubbard and Clement
You have Joba Chamberlain and Zombies of Duncan
Pedroias with reps of gold and games of brass
And thus is the nature of Major League Baseball
Of old talent ebbs and new talent flows
That Diamondbacks, Rays and Brewers win with players so young
Thus must we mire with players so old
And lose all of these ballgames?
by Gomez on May 30, 2008 8:39 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
Shakes-peer
See…rebuilding really is the best option.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions
You are overly inflammatory in your remarks without the reputation, accuracy or content to back it up.
And while most of the ideas may be on the right track, they lack depth and in the end just don’t bring anything new to the table here.
Sure thing skip
Look I am not trying to be a jerk to cause problems but your seriously coming off like asshole.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Awww
So that letterbomb you guys sent me was really a fond welcoming gift?
You guys are the best.
I’d give you a hug but the bomb blew my arms off. I have to type with my nose now.
I know a chick who might left you borrow her prosthetic.
She’s got some weird ass friends, though.
-aaron c.
by Aaron Campeau on May 30, 2008 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sure Baker is sitting around his place
Waiting for you to enlighten him.
Anyone who went to the Seattle Times feed with Baker knows what his response to this is going to be and finds it hilarious.
Hardball Review Because we need another blog about the Mariners.
That wasn't subtly bashing
That was just full on in-your-face bashing. You knew his theories and thoughts on the issue and you said:
Any fan with a pea sized brain could have seen the the Seattle Mariners allowed more runs than they scored last year. Thus they overachieved massively and were not a 88 win team. But the blundering front office couldn’t get past the notion of 88 wins + Bedard = Playoffs.
Do you think that’s going to get him to consider your point more? If your entire purpose was bashing him, then that’s fine. But I assume it wasn’t, because you could have easily written a lot less and gotten the same point across. By saying this, you’re not going to gain any respect from him. If you truly wanted to get his attention and tell him what you think, you should have left out all of the bashing, subtle or not.
by Last Fan Of Jose Lopez on May 30, 2008 10:20 AM PDT reply actions
And you might have considered editing for spelling/grammar
Since those things, while they don’t affect your content, do affect the way your thoughts are received.
I never mentioned Bakers name.
As for everyone else I realize this is a touchy subject but this is just my idea. You have to admit, its better than anything Bavasi could ever dream up.
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't really care abut Baker...
He kind of annoys me. Not only was I bashing Baker though…I was bashing any fan who saw 88 wins + Bedard = Playoffs. Besides any of that, I seriously doubt Baker reads my comment. It is lengthy, and I am sure he has better things to do…
Thats a Bedarded Trade
by Edgar for Mayor on May 30, 2008 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I vote for Blow it Up
not exactly trading players away, just dynamite Safeco field…
Midnight Baseball - No Lights - Only in Alaska!
Yes, this.
I used to care about the Sonics, and then it became evident they were leaving, and now I could not possibly care less about their fate. It would be cathartic, and better for a lot of us and our mental health if they just literally blew up the Safe and left town. Too bad Clay can’t take the M’s with him.

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