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Around SBN: Tiger Woods, Tony Romo Grouped Together At Pebble Beach

20-34

And, once again, several thousand Fenway virgins get to trudge home with nary a reason to cheer.

I have to hand it to the Mariners - for as frustrating as they've been these last billion years, they haven't exactly rolled out the welcome mat for the Red Sox. Since the start of 2005 (when I think we can all agree the Boston bandwagon achieved a previously unthinkable level of obnoxious douchebaggery), the Sox have played 18 games in Safeco, and 13 of them left us all feeling pretty much exactly like this. The Mariners aren't going anywhere, but once more they outplayed and outscored what's supposed to be the best team in baseball, and to do that before the presumptuous eyes of the latest invading red plague...this is what it feels like when you see the guy dangerously weaving his Vette through tight traffic on the freeway get pulled over and written up. You're able to continue on your merry way, and the whole drive home all you hope is that the guy is angry and crestfallen and resisting just enough to warrant a shot in the leg.

If there is a God - a just God, anyway - every single Red Sox fan who attented this game went home and cried himself to sleep. May the coming days bring them pain.

5_28_08_medium

Biggest Contribution: Erik Bedard, +49.5%
Biggest Suckfest: Miguel Cairo, -10.1%
Most Important AB: Betancourt funk blast, +12.2%
Most Important Pitch: Crisp groundout, +14.2%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +77.3%
Total Contribution by Hitters: -31.4%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +4.1%
(What is this chart?)

In a rush to get to bed, but fortunately there are only two things I really want to talk about anyway:

  • Erik Bedard can't decide between being good and being injured. His last start was a complete disaster, but he came back tonight with a terrific performance against the AL's best lineup, a terrific performance of which the Mariners needed every last bit in order to win. As Geoff Baker already said, this was the kind of game we thought we were trading for. Give or take a few runs, this was the kind of game we thought we'd be seeing over and over as the M's made a run at the playoffs. Instead, such games have been far too infrequent, and the team finds itself all but eliminated from contention before the first of June.

    Still, ignoring the context of the season, Bedard turned in seven innings of no-run, two-hit, eight-k pitching against a lineup that, even without Kevin Youkilis and Jason Varitek, remains plenty potent, and that's something to be celebrated. He visibly appeared to be a little more intense tonight than usual, and while that may or may not be true, he was dialing his fastball up to 92-93 with regularity, something he's been struggling to accomplish for much of the first two months. The fastball, in fact, was the pitch that got him through the game, as it accounted for 18 of his 21 outs. Once more, the curveball served as the secondary offering, while Bedard worked off of his heat.

    This is both good and bad news. It's good because it shows that Bedard can be successful against talented hitters by pounding the zone with four-seamers and cutters (I'm not differentiating between the two, but I'm sure he does) and not featuring that much offspeed. But it's bad because the curveball is what made Erik Bedard what he was a year ago, and as long as he's using it less often and having it generate worse results, I'm not comfortable saying that he's back to being an ace. He might be pitching at that level, but because the path he's taking is different from the one he took in 2007, I'll need a lot more proof that this is for real. I'm not buying it yet.

    Erik Bedard threw arguably the best curveball in the Majors Leagues last year. This year it just isn't the same, and again tonight he picked up more swinging strikes on his heater (nine on the fastball, two on the curve). While the repertoire hasn't changed, right now he's just a different guy than the one for whom we traded. Similar, but different. And I'm not sure why that is. Could be coaching, could be an injury, could be a sample size issue, could be something else. All I know is that, as awesome as it is to see him blow through a lineup like he did tonight, I won't be completely comfortable until I see more guys going up there and swinging through his hook. I think that'll end up being the best indication of when - if ever - he's officially back.

    I'd take some more starts like this in the meantime, though.

  • Dustin Pedroia came into the game with the sixth-best contact rate in baseball. Brandon Morrow got him to swing and miss at both a first-pitch low slider and an 0-2 outside fastball at 100 miles per hour. I could watch this all night. It was a perfect pitch - too close to take, but too far off and way too fast to hit - and it might've been the pitch of the series, with the only other competition being Morrow's two strikeout pitches from the night before. 100 miles per hour. A completely legitimate 100 miles per hour. Just off the black.

    It's like Morrow and JJ Putz have swapped bodies. Suddenly, while Putz is laboring and having trouble finding the zone, Morrow is throwing strike after strike at 96+ with just enough breaking balls to keep hitters guessing. We all saw his three strikeouts. They were unfair. Just unfair. Nobody could've done anything with the pitches he threw, as evidenced by the fact that Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell all went away on a combined 11 pitches. Even if they knew exactly what was coming, they still wouldn't have been able to do much damage.

    This is what it looks like when a reliever makes the leap. I've hinted at it before with regards to Morrow, but I think after what he did to Boston, I'm pretty much convinced. He'll still walk a guy every now and again, but with his sharpened command and improved offspeed selection, it's game over. This isn't a guy who looks like he'll have too many nights of regret. This is a guy who might end the year as one of the most effective relievers in the league.

    I could go on and on about the organization's decision to delay/destroy any plans of moving Morrow into the rotation. I probably will. A few times. But since tonight's a happy night, I'm going to focus on the positive. If Brandon Morrow is to remain in the bullpen for the duration of his Mariner career, odds right now appear damn high that he'll become at least a really good reliever, and potentially a spectacular one. That may not be getting max value for the fifth overall pick, but it's still getting value, and we've all seen how critical a shutdown arm or two in the late innings can be for a winning ballclub. If Morrow can become that go-to guy in the 8th or 9th, it won't be the best-case scenario, but it'll still be a pretty freaking good one.

    Keep throwing the way you're throwing, Brandon. They won't be able to touch you.

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Love the gif.

I love it even more that you can see your mouse pointer briefly dragging across the screen… =)

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on May 29, 2008 1:00 AM PDT reply actions  

Not sure what to think of this but...

Bedard’s personal catcher, Jamie Burke, told the pitcher beforehand that he should be mixing his change-up in more often. Bedard did that early and it threw the Red Sox off.

“I told him we have to start throwing that pitch a little more and we’ve got to get it going,’’ Burke said. “You can’t go out there with two or three pitches. You’ve got to have that other pitch. And that’s a great pitch.’‘

...

I was pretty sure you or Matthew said Bedard threw like 94% fastballs/curves last year. I suppose it’s possible that it’s just fluff-I didn’t really notice any changeups tonight, at least not according to the radar gun-but perhaps some of his “curves” were the change Burke wanted him to throw which would result in the lower swinging stirke% on the “curve”, since not all of them are true curves? I wasn’t even aware he threw a change so I thought this may be interesting.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 29, 2008 1:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Probably shouldn't feel as good as it does

But God Damn am I in a good mood right now. By the way, you guys are slowly pulling into Rays bandwagonry. I find myself casually checking their box scores. . .

by thewyrm on May 29, 2008 3:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I am that guy without the Corvette.

However, I live in Utah, and we have speed limits 10-15 mph higher than in Washington State. People frequently drive under the speed limit here and it makes me want to drive faster.

I got my first ticket this year driving 95 mph down to San Diego. There we probably 200 cars who were smiling at me as they drove by. I then passed them up again later on. I had a pricey last laugh.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

You drive 95 to LV from anywhere in SoCal and you'll get passed the whole way there

I-15 out there may be the most boring stretch of road in history. But on the way to SD… it’s virtually unpatrolled :).

NOTE: I do not consider this Corco-baiting since I’m discussing California highways

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

I drove on the weekend so traffic was jammed up from LV to SD.

Also, I was driving with my sister. If I am driving alone, I like to push things up to 115-120.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh yeah, weekends are bad times to travel that stretch

I usually try to hit Barstow at like 9-10PM so that traffic the whole way out is a breeze and you still get there in time to either go clubbing or play some craps

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

I find that most of SoCal freeways are unpatrolled.

I think you really have to be going 20 mph above the limit to even have a chance at getting a ticket. At least that’s been my experience in the four years I’ve been here.

by Teej on May 29, 2008 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I lived in California for 4 years

and only got nabbed the day I moved out, near the Oregon border.

I find my driving was really influenced by that stint in so. cal., where doing 90 on the freeway might be good enough for the middle lane. I drove a lot in my four years, and from what I can tell, you’d need to be going closer to 40-50 miles over before they’d even consider it. I remember a congested 210 freeway drive where everyone was bumper to bumper…and everyone was doing 85+.

I moved back up to the Northwest and racked up 5 speeding tickets in one year. I’ve learned to moderate things a bit, but it still feels incredibly wrong to do 70.

by marc w on May 29, 2008 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I learned the same lesson when I moved out to the east coast from LA

Let’s just say that you should watch your ass when you drive in Virginia. A speeding ticket of 20+ is considered reckless driving and a Class 1 misdemeanor.

by ningwers on May 29, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Whoaaaaa.....

20 over is ~speed limit for me anywhere not in LA itself.

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah

The sad part was that I was only ~10 over for most of the trip but wasn’t paying attention to my speed as I came down a hill. Guess who was waiting for me at the bottom. >:(

by ningwers on May 29, 2008 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

One thing I found driving in WA

is that the roads are more narrow, hilly and twisty here, which makes going 30 or 50 seem a lot more natural than it would in Vegas, where it would seem flat out grating.

by Gomez on May 29, 2008 11:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

I got pulled over on the Magnolia Bridge going 65 in a 35

Alaska Driver’s Liscense. Texas Plates. Car registered in my Uncle’s last name. My thought as I pulled over: My ass is going to prison. I begged my way out.

by thewyrm on May 29, 2008 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

And this is a more rational conclusion than what you see in Brazil

i.e. a pile of wreckage and concrete with dude’s brains spilled all over the roadway

by Gomez on May 29, 2008 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sweet

Taking two from the Sox is about the best we could’ve expected from this team.

by OlSalty on May 29, 2008 4:37 AM PDT reply actions  

So it's just a theory, and probably a bad one

But Bedard spent his year pitching in a very humid Baltimore last year (I live here in DC… trust me, summers are like balls here). Could the “thickness” (for lack of a better word) of the air have helped his curve have more bite? I know pitchers are always complaining about the dry air in Arizona during spring, so could the same possibly be true here?

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 8:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Seattle isn't like east coast humidity either.

Sometimes you’re not sure if it is sweat or just the air condensing on your skin.

by Jed MC on May 29, 2008 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Exactly

When I come home it honestly feels like I am in dry air all the time. I doubt it would impact the curve that much, but maybe…

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Baseballs don't sweat.

If Seattle and the East coast have the same humidity, Seattle should have a greater effect on the baseball because of the cooler weather. I don’t know the numbers, but Seattle’s humidity is probably a little less than the East coast because of the consistent meridian air flow.

But just because you feel the humidity more on the East coast, a baseball is not going to know the difference if the humidity levels are the same.

(I lived in D.C. for two years and I can attest to the humid summer months. But I also lived in Tokyo for two years and their summers are probably twice as intense as in D.C.)

Oh, and some physics major can correct me if I am wrong about this.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah I know the ball per se doesn't feel the effects

I just thought that more humidty=denser air, which meant spin had more impact. That said, I have nothing to back this up, so it’s fine if I am totally wrong.

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

high humidity = lower mass density

Humidity is water vapor with an atomic weight of 18. Air is mostly N2 and O2 with atomic weights of 28 and 32, resp. So for a given number density, set by altitude and temp, humid air has a lower mass density because of more 18’s floating around instead of 28’s and 32’s. So the ball will experience less resistance in humid air.

by norwich on May 29, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmmmm....

Looking at the averages during the summer months, Seattle actually has a higher average humidity level than Baltimore.

In other words, advantage Seattle on air flow effecting ball movement.

So the theory doesn’t work. Bedard should be even better than he was in Baltimore if he is throwing the same.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

But, I was looking at the summer month averages (June, July, August).

Isn’t Bedard typically a slow starter? As the humidity picks up, so should his performance. With higher levels of humidity on its way, Bedard may see more games like last night from now on.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

Statistically perhaps

but last night wasn’t Peak Bedard.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2008 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Definitely not peak Bedard.

But we are talking about weather effects on the baseball. His pitches looked like they had good movement, he just didn’t throw enough curveballs.

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, I saw those pitches moving more!

There was a slight breeze coming from the west that kept the ball down more. And as the humidity slowly dissipated into the evening air, he lost a little on his curveball. But the humidity didn’t go low enough from Bedard to lose complete control because the Red Sox fans were chanting constantly. The humidity level would have been a whole five points lower if it was not for them chanting.

I know this! I saw it happen!

by Wilder. on May 29, 2008 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Point taken

crawls back away

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Huh, I would have never guessed

Fair enough. Theory debunked

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Morrow

He’s going to have to start sucking to get a chance at being a starter, isn’t he? Pitching like yesterday will only serve to establish him as the 8th inning-guy on a permanent basis…so sad :-(

by Alex B on May 29, 2008 8:42 AM PDT reply actions  

We just need another 6 game losing streak

Then they’ll start stretching him out and stop holding onto this fools hope for turning the season around.

by OlSalty on May 29, 2008 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hooray Mariners!

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 29, 2008 9:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Huh.
For instance, will a decent centerfielder solve the team’s ills? Doesn’t have to be a 30-homer guy. Just a good defensive centerfielder. That way, you could move Wladimir Balentien over to his more naturally-suited left field position and shift Ichiro back to right. Would provide less power than the team currently has, but then the defense - with all those theoretical saved runs I keep reading about - could make up for that in an instant, right?

~Baker

I know Ichiro isn’t overly special in center field, but Baker seems to imply that he’s average or worse than average. Just where does Ichiro rank amongst CFs defensively?

by BrianL on May 29, 2008 10:05 AM PDT reply actions  

Solidly average.

I have no idea what Baker is talking about here.

-aaron c.

by Aaron Campeau on May 29, 2008 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

The only thing I do get is that Baker still doesn't understand the importance of defense
but then the defense – with all those theoretical saved runs I keep reading about

by BrianL on May 29, 2008 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

great write up

one thing, you should know better than to think there is a just god.

by InSpokane on May 29, 2008 10:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Couple of notes from the game:

The stadium gun said the pitch Pedroia K’d on was 98 mph, not 100. Did FSN or MLBtv have it higher?

Went over by section 108 in the middle innings to look at new hats. Saw a guy in 108 in a Snelling jersey. You don’t see many of those, any chance it was someone from here?

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 29, 2008 10:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Cool!

I yelled “LOOKOUT LANDING” to see if anyone turned around, and the only response I got was an usher trying to tell me I was on the wrong side of the stadium.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 29, 2008 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have a question

is your SN like “thin gray” or like “thing ray?” This has baffled me for about three days.

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fine

I shall continue to be baffled then. I’m also going to ask that JI and Robert adopt finding the meaning of your SN as part of their campaign platform in order to win back my vote.

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Enough suspense.

It’s Thing-ray… Old nickname that morphed out of the “Thing” character from Fantastic Four. Long story not worth getting in to here, but I’ll just say I’m not big, I’m not orange, and I’m not rocky.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 29, 2008 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Now that I think about it, Thin-gray is almost more fitting.

Although I only have a few gray hairs so far.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 29, 2008 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Rec'd for truthfulness!

That was my guess as well, only recently did I stop to think that it could be “thin gray.”

Yes, this is what I do at work.

by seattlebruin on May 29, 2008 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

S'okay. I'm at work too.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 29, 2008 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sad...

I had always thought Thin-gray… I wonder what else in my world is not as it seems…

In the name of the Bedard, the Felix, and the Ichiro, amen.

by Robert Lintott on May 29, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Where can you find swinging strike %?

Bedard’s mark of ~15% was low for him comapred to last year, right?

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on May 29, 2008 4:23 PM PDT reply actions  

Baseball-Reference

I should use this opportunity to note that the StS% numbers I use are different from Matthew’s swinging strike%. His are over all pitches while mine are only over strikes for some reason.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 29, 2008 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mine make more sense

(to me anyways and I’m the only one who counts)

by Matthew on May 29, 2008 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm slowly working on that.

If only someone would pay me to work on baseball stuff for 80 hours/week instead of getting paid nothing to work on it 40 hours/week like I do now.

by Matthew on May 29, 2008 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on May 29, 2008 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

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