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Forward Thinking

46d6r518_tiny by ASUBoyd on Comment 137 comments

Perhaps this falls under the "rosterbation" category to an extent, but who cares.

Let's examine the potential 2009 free agency market for the M's.

Current payroll, ~$117,666,482

Contracts coming off after this year:

Ho Ram: ~500,000

Wilkerson: ~2.7 mil

Sexson ~14-15m

Vidro (potentially) ~8.5 mil

Raul ~4.5 mil

Bloomquist ~850,000

Cairo  ~850,000

Misc roster filler like Rhodes, Dickey

So assuming the team keeps Raul for about the same, we could potentially have 25-28 million to spend. Where would everbody spend this and what sorts of contracts?

Obviously Tex will be popular, but what if we can't outprice the Yanks? Where do we turn then? 

0 recs | Comment 137 comments

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Freely available talent

It’s the way to go at 1B.

by JI on May 26, 2008 2:14 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

n/s

I think he means guys like Stairs, Pena, Cust, Hinske, etc. are around every year. They don’t cost much and they give you solid production at 1B/DH.

FREE JEREMY REED!!

by MFAN on May 26, 2008 2:24 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gotcha.

Kevin Millar is available next year.

There are a lot of 1Bs who people would have loved to have had 4-6 years ago – Sexson, Giambi, Delgado, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Nomar.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 2:29 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to completely miss the point.

There is no one like Stairs, Pena, Cust, Hinske available next year.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 2:40 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Some how you took

finding a decent underrated layer available @ $350k to mean “sign an over the hill free agent that will likely cost millions of dollars.”

by JI on May 26, 2008 2:49 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Somehow you have no reading comprehension.

Just because I wrote there are a lot of 1bs who people would have loved to have half a decade ago, doesnt mean I was suggesting them. I was commenting on the list. Christ.

First Basemen
Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson SEA
Mark Teixeira ATL
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

Thats the list.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If it's a 6 year free agent, the odds are really slim

The point of ‘freely available talent’ isn’t that they have to be ABSOLUTELY free (although Carlos Pena was- in the sense of being signed to a MiLB contract), it’s that it doesn’t cost some sort of top prospect. Jack Cust was traded to the A’s last year for cash considerations or whatever.
The idea here is making a run at guys like…oh, Brian Myrow, Mike Hessman, maybe even Adam Lind at this point.
There are always players like this around; some of them become, er, Carlos Pena or Jack Cust, and a great majority become Kevin Witt. But if you get a few, and get a bit of luck, you can get league ave. production (or better) for league minimum or close to it.
This is the opposite of signing a major league free agent, even one whose value is in decline due to aging and sucking. I think we’re all clear that the WORST move would be to sign a ‘name’ 1B who’s like 35+. On a multi-year deal.
If it’s not a great player, then it should be freely available talent; that way, you save money to splurge on a superstar player. And then hope that turns out better than the Bedard thing (so far).

by marc w on May 26, 2008 5:20 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yup, I understand the strategy.

I just wish it wasn’t such a pipedream with our FO involved.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 5:23 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah

They’ve got money in their pockets, which is why your two lists of players are more likely – even though it’s the opposite of the freely-available strategy.

I’d be fascinated to see what Toronto wants for Lind.

by marc w on May 26, 2008 5:33 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Given how they've built their team, they'd probably take Reed and a throw-in.

They seem to want a team of only pitching and defence.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 27, 2008 12:31 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is that why they picked up Wilkerson?

I know what you’re saying, but Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Adam Lind rotate around Shannon Stewart for that last OF spot. They can’t have tunnel vision given the type of player they’re looking for here.

That said, I think Reed for Lind would be a GREAT trade for all parties. Reed gives them, er, more defense and Lind might get us OBP+SLG. Both guys really need a fresh start in a new org.

by marc w on May 27, 2008 8:53 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd be for it.

And we know how much Toronto loves those white guys with long hair. I am skeptical, though, that they’d deal Lind that easy.

by Jeff on May 27, 2008 9:05 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So am I

but then, why the pick-up of Wilkerson? Why the off-season move for Shannon Stewart? This isn’t quite a ‘johjima extended 3 years’ situation, but it’s still sort of odd.

Don’t forget that Toronto has Travis Snider in AA right now as well – a guy who’s the same sort of player, only better. Lind has less value to Toronto than to any other club right now.

by marc w on May 27, 2008 10:36 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True.

They should have just kept Reed Johnson and never signed Stewart.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on May 27, 2008 4:50 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The entire point is that you've never heard of these guys and they'll give you decent production

if there was a guy we’d heard of out there, he wouldn’t be a Stairs, Pena, Cust or Hinske

by seattlebruin on May 26, 2008 3:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting.

Rocco Baldelli potentially is a free agent this offseason. Assuming that Tampa Bay has had their fill of Lou Gehrig 2.0, would it be a decent move to offer him a sub 1mil contract for a season?

by BrianL on May 26, 2008 2:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I doubt Tampa Bay resigns him.

They’ve already declined his option for next season, so he’ll be on the market.

If he can play 15-20 games at the tail end of this season, I’d love to see Seattle offer him a 500-800K minor league contract with a spring training invitation.

by BrianL on May 26, 2008 3:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's probably a low-risk, potentially high reward proposition.

All we have to do is send Rocco to the Princeton-Plainsboro teaching hospital and get their head of diagnostic medicine to look at him.

by BrianL on May 26, 2008 3:18 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's done.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 26, 2008 6:32 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK JI

Found a different with some players youd approve of.

Rich Aurilia, SF

Ben Broussard, TEX

Sean Casey, DET

Tony Clark, ARI

Scott Hatteberg, CIN

Wes Helms, PHI

Eric Hinske, BOS

Ryan Klesko, SF

Doug Mientkiewicz, NYY

Kevin Millar, BAL

Richie Sexson, SEA

Mark Sweeney, LAD

Mike Sweeney, KC

Mark Teixeira, ATL

Daryle Ward, CHC

Craig Wilson, CWS

Frank Thomas, TOR

Carlos Delgado, NYM

Jason Giambi, NYY

Jim Thome, CWS

Who would be your choice? Hinske?

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 3:10 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We won't have the full list until Novemeber, so why dwell on it?

Plus, I very much doubt Hinske will be freely available.

I freely admit that I don’t have a rolodex of good ML firstbasemen in my head because I don’t follow this stuff as closely as Jeff or Matthew; those guys could probably give you names.

by JI on May 26, 2008 3:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not dwelling on it, just thought it would be fun to speculate.

Not trying to grill you, just asking who you would like to see in an M’s uni.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 3:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I replace Reyes with Hanley.

Reyes plays better D, but holy crap Hanley’s bat is awesome and with the rest of that team you could afford to lose a little defense. It’s not like the rest of the team is bad at defense either.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 26, 2008 4:34 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hanley can't play D to save his fucking life

he’s a LFer, (maybe CF or 2B but probably LF)

by JI on May 26, 2008 4:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, but think of it this way.

Defense:

C Mauer (great)
1B Pujols (great)
2B Utley (great)
3B A-Rod (good)
SS Ramirez (incredibly awful)
LF Hamilton (good)
CF Sizemore (good)
RF Ichiro (great)

With a defense that good outside of SS, you can survive shitty SS D for the offensive upgrade. His defensive shortcoming may also be less of a shortcoming with two good defenders on either side of him.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 26, 2008 4:38 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I am with you.

And frankly he has been better than Reyes and Betancourt at defense this season. Better ZR and RF. So he is not crippling.

by ASUBoyd on May 26, 2008 4:42 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I liked him

But he’s a terrible fit for the ballpark. I trumpted it till I saw his spray chart. If the M’s signed him it’d be like signing Richie to his big deal. Yeah, he’s good, and he’ll give you a couple good years despite the park hurting him…but in the long run it’ll look bad. Very similar too—RH power hitters ( though Richie sprays the ball better) and both 30ish. Good player, bad fit for the park, too much money.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 26, 2008 4:36 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How about a trade for a 1B

A deadline deal of Putz for Braun or Laporta? Braun is probably too much especially with how Putz has looked.

I still don’t know if I subscribe to the fact that 1B are easy to come by. Sure maybe a league average 1B but getting a very good 1B for cheap would be tough I think. When teams succeed at it I’d say there is quite a bit of luck involved. I’m not saying that I want to overpay for somebody but it seems like (once again) the best way to get premium talent is to develop it yourself.

Anybody out there think Pena, Hinske, or Stairs were gonna be worth what they’ve turned into?

by Edgar for Pres on May 26, 2008 3:39 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think they're necessarily that easy to find

but the effort and resources you’d put into landing one would be better spent on a more skilled position. I’m all about going cheap at 1B/DH/LF/RF and pouring my money into the rest.

by Jeff on May 26, 2008 3:42 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who cares? There aren't many games to close these days

If some idiot team wants to give a the M’s a bounty for a not 100% Putz then by all means, let them. I just wonder if the M’s would accept a trade for him even if it was offered. I would hope that they would at least entertain such offers.

Lowe could very well turn into a good closer with some grooming. Morrow shouldn’t be anywhere near the closer position right now, he needs to be learning how to pitch long innings.

by marinator on May 26, 2008 10:02 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

La Porta is destroying the minors

If the M’s got him, I’d be ecstatic. He was my number one for the m’s to pick in that draft.

by Kevman22 on May 26, 2008 5:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah...which means

he won’t be freely available. That said, he’d be great to get.
K’s under control this year, which kind of surprises me.

by marc w on May 26, 2008 6:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I can't see Percival continuing his success

He has to fail at some point.

Maybe Putz -> Rays, and some young good players -> us

by marinator on May 26, 2008 9:58 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Only if he gets hurt

guy’s dealing, he’s not Trevor Hoffman.

by JI on May 26, 2008 10:07 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I admit I haven't seen him pitch much

but holy hell he’s almost 40. when does he hit the wall?

by marinator on May 26, 2008 10:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When his arm blows up

He can still hit 96/97 amazingly, but can only be used two straight without getting very, very flat. He didn’t have surgery on his arm, so he’s essentially playing with the house’s money until it blows.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 27, 2008 12:05 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd bring back Dickey

I’d go get a LF and then stockpile cheap fringe AAAA guys with upside that might be able to help.

by Gomez on May 26, 2008 6:11 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Futurama is good.

It makes me happy that there are new episodes.

by BrianL on May 26, 2008 10:59 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Explain

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on May 26, 2008 11:01 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

? there's new episodes?

this world is full of never ending goodness. Well, except for the Mariners

by seattlebruin on May 27, 2008 12:07 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There are 4 made for DVD movies rolling out this year

The first one is out already, Bender’s Big Score… it’s pretty good

by LongLiveTheKings on May 27, 2008 4:39 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Meh. I bought the DVD movie month's ago.

It’s “okay” at best. They really missed the mark IMHO.

I like midgets more than I should.

by Thingray on May 27, 2008 11:58 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I was aware of this

I just thought you meant there was another one out.

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

by Mariner John on May 29, 2008 4:10 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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